Current fixed odds
 

No. Selection Win Place

001 Desert War $6.50 $2.25
002 Court's In Session $6.50 $2.50
008 Ike's Dream $7.00 $2.50
011 Winning Belle $7.00 $2.25
014 Al Maher $9.00 $3.50
007 Patezza $11.00 $3.50
015 Danni Martine $11.00 $3.50
004 Modem $15.00 $4.50
010 Sky Cuddle $15.00 $4.50
003 Toulouse Lautrec $21.00 $7.25
016 Utzon $21.00 $7.25
017 Tui Song $26.00 $7.25
018 Johan's Toy $26.00 $9.25
006 This Manshood $51.00 $17.50
009 Osca Warrior $51.00 $13.50
012 Charnwood Green $51.00 $32.25
013 Nips $67.00 $32.25
005 Natural Blitz $101.00 $26.00

I think CIS has most of these covered,,,he's a fighter .and will be rock hard fit ....
I'm hoping a roughie gets in the placings..i think Johan's Toy could sneak a place with the weight and extra 100m..not sure she's tough enough though to win and will need all the brakes..
and i dont think This Manshood is all that hopless...was alot to like about his first up run..and was close up last year in this race against a better field..
and is as tough as they come..
Patezza, Danni Martine and Winning Bell look the dangers..

Might just have a crack at the tris and 1st4's in this race ..because i think its fairly open..

Haven't rated it yet, but Johan's Toy has J Ford and barrier 16. Will need luck by the bucket full.

My opinion is that Desert War will win. He has been specifically trained for this, and his last run wasn't that bad at all. For the multiples, i am looking at: Toulouse Lautrec - Will relish the extra distance...Ike's Dream - COnsistent of late, great last two runs...Modem - If the track suits him he will go well, got squashed last start on the way to a huge run...Utzo is another one with a need for the mile

Johans Toy seems to be developing into a bit of a Republic Lass i.e. he always finishes well, but when it goes up in distance has the same run - it will probably have a good run, maybe 5th
1600m is probably too short for Winning Belle, but maybe too long for CIS

No concrete judgements here but a few early comments.

NB: Apparently there is some heavy rain for sydney. Therefore some of my comments will take account of this. If it doesnt rain then just disregard everything i have said. Or just disregard it anyway, whatever you like.

Desert War - Havn't decided yet. Hasn't really delivered. Form at randwick and will like the rain that is apperently on the way to sydney.
CIS - ditto maverick's comments. Stoogy barrier draw though for a horse that likes to lead.
Tui Song has ike's dream covered now carrying 51kg, which means alot of others are covered.
Toulous Lautrec - Predicting a suprise. Hawkes has him targetted at this race. Do not underestimate.
Modem - Couldn;t have had a harsher check last start. Extremely bad luck last time. Would have cleaned them up otherwise IMO. Wide barrier but will get back anyway and need the luck that he didn't get last time.
Natural Blitz - If it pours, then I would have my cat rather than NB.
This Manshod - Ditto Maverick
Patteza - Was finishing of strongly last start. Will be there abouts again i should think . ********e barrier.
Ikes Dream - Hardly convincing win last start. More improvement in second and third runners IMO. Probably wrong though.
Osca Warrier - Won't win. Full stop.
Sky Cuddle - In it up to his eyeballs if the rain is that high.
Winning Belle - Ryan on board is a plus. But i think she will be a bit dour.
Charnwood Green - Others look better.
Nips - Cannot remeber last start, unwilling to comment.
Al Maher - Drawn to get the run of the race and previous form indicates he is one of the main chances
Danni Martine - Ultra consistant and was hitting the line hard last start. Many plusses.
Utzon - Ran well from a wide barrier last start, carrying .5kg less. Draws 2 here and I am expecting a very god run.
Tui Song - Showing vast improvement with each run. Drops 4.5, beaten narrowly last start. VERY GOOD hope.
Johans Toy - Not sure if it looks the winner, but could snag a place with a sack of feathers on her back.

I am open to any criticism and additions to what i have said.

Just though i would get the ball rolling on what apears to be a very open race.

Cheers,
Matt

Desert War...not sure about him,,,thought he should be doing more..
CIS....i dont think the distance is a worry...i reckon it suits him even more..
Patezza...has been finishing off so well,,,is in rare form and gets back so the barrier draw doesnt matter,,
Actually i dont even know the barrier draw,,has it been drawn already ??.
Winning Bell...i dont like horses coming back in distance ,,,but you have to like the way she went to the front and then fought back when the diva challenged her...,,,you cant get a better form line that that..and she's racing more prominent than she used to ,,so shes putting herself in the race..
Ikes dream fell in last week,,,
taulous ...should of been doing more aswell,,,
Al Maher...not sure about this one...very impressive last start when alot of people under estimated him...i wont be making the same mistake this week,,
include in the multis..

TOULOUSE LAUTREC

I think Tui Song is also huge value @ $26, she'd have beaten Ikes Dream by a couple if she hadn't missed the kick, drops 3 kg from her for that run and Ikes Dream is equal favourite. Extra 100m suits, any rain around probably suits her as much as anything else, "she's a ************ good mare" Rogy says, i agree and with a postage stamp weight in a lucklustre field she's in this up to her eyeballs. Dangers include CIS, Al Maher and Sky Cuddle, i am confident the winner will come from this quartet.

TOULOUSE LAUTREC to be ridden by C Brown
NATURAL BLITZ to be ridden by L Beasley
IKE'S DREAM to be ridden by D Beadman

Current fixed odds
 

No. Horse Win Place

001 Desert War $6.50 $2.35
002 Court's In Session $6.50 $2.35
008 Ike's Dream $7.50 $2.65
011 Winning Belle $7.50 $2.65
014 Al Maher $9.00 $3.00
015 Danni Martine $9.00 $3.00
007 Patezza $15.00 $4.50
010 Sky Cuddle $15.00 $4.50
003 Toulouse Lautrec $17.00 $5.00
004 Modem $17.00 $5.00
016 Utzon $17.00 $5.00
017 Tui Song $17.00 $5.00
018 Johan's Toy $34.00 $9.25
006 This Manshood $51.00 $13.50
012 Charnwood Green $51.00 $13.50
009 Osca Warrior $67.00 $17.50
013 Nips $67.00 $17.50
005 Natural Blitz $101.00 $26.00