OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES - 2000M [Group 1] 2 April 05

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)

- Horse Racing (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=5)

- - QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES - 2000M [Group 1] 2 April 05 - Randwick (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=8336)

Interesting words thanks Real Deal.

I keep looking and looking at this race, and wondering how the **** are they going to beat GA. If it goes like it has it's last two then they surely cannot, because if they could then they'd be better than M.Diva too, and NONE of these horses are better (or even close to) M.Diva at WFA. So, GA should be an absolute moral then. The only thing is as Mercurial said, if GA is over the top. If not, it just wins. I'll want $2.50 though. Hell I might not bet. This just looks too straightforward - like two ago when he brained them, this looks like another walk in the park. SOMETHING must be going to happen, becuase horse racing isn't this straightforward, surely? I mark GA a $1.30 chance on my ratings, he has literally lengths on these horses but they don't get any weight from him (or if they do, only weight for age allowance). If he performs again, he wins, full stop. By three or four. So, with that in mind, isn't $1.80 or so insane overs??? If, as I said, his best (ie his last two starts) beats their best with ease, shouldn't he be $1.30?

1] GRAND ARMEE
2] DESERT WAR
11] SAVABEEL
5] DELZAO

Toulouse Lautrec
Savabeel
Vouvray

Quote:

Originally Posted by Real Deal

If i can offer any advice it would be to kep all the money you are going to outlay on savabeel in your pocket. Its last start i was at flemington and the jockey put away the whip at the 100 cause the horse refused to respond. The going is probably worse up there and it will be no where near the finish of this race.

Savabeel's best form has been 4th up and following. He's 4th up tomorrow. He steps up to 2000m, which suits. And he returns to his home track. It's worth noting that his win at this track and distance was in slow conditions, so track conditions won't bother him if it's a bit wet. I think he's the only danger to Grand Armee.

I rate them:

1. Grand Armee $1.8
11. Savabeel $5.7

(9) Vouvray
(1) Grand Armee
(4) Mummify
(6) St Reims

(11) SAVABEEL
(1) GRAND ARMEE
(10) IKE'S DREAM
(9) VOUVRAY

1) Grand Armee
3) Toulouse Lautrec
6) St Reims
9) vouvray

Current fixed odds

No. Horse Win Place
001 Grand Armee $1.75 $1.15
003 Toulouse Lautrec $8.00 $2.25
011 Savabeel $8.00 $2.25
002 Desert War $11.00 $2.35
010 Ike's Dream $11.00 $2.50
009 Vouvray $13.00 $2.65
004 Mummify $21.00 $3.50
005 Delzao $21.00 $5.00
006 St Reims $34.00 $8.00
007 Rizon $101.00 $21.00
008 Simply Viv $251.00 $51.00

No. Horse Was Now
001 Grand Armee $1.80 $1.75
003 Toulouse Lautrec $7.00 $8.00
011 Savabeel $7.00 $8.00
002 Desert War $9.00 $11.00
010 Ike's Dream $9.00 $11.00
009 Vouvray $11.00 $13.00
004 Mummify $26.00 $21.00
005 Delzao $21.00 $21.00
006 St Reims $34.00 $34.00
007 Rizon $101.00 $101.00
008 Simply Viv $251.00 $251.00

TOULOUSE LAUTREC
GRAND ARMEE
ST REIMS
VOUVRAY