OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)
-   Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)
-   -   Staking Plan (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=8686)

BJ 14th April 2005 02:25 PM

You are making profits from a straight bet, but it is probably too early to claim a strike rate although it is looking positive.
It really depends on your allowable risk.
Also, considering the fact that your strike rate is not guaranteed, there is nothing that I could suggest to you regarding a staking plan in the format you describe.
I bet a similar way to you and this is the basic idea of what I do.
I keep a spreadsheet of the last 30 bets. I record the odds I get a horse for, which becomes my probability of the horse winning.
I have a base return of $100.
I divide the number of actual wins into the number of required wins for 100%.
I then divide the base bet into the previous percentage.
eg if out of the last 30 races, you needed 10 winners to break even, and you only got 6, your bet would now be to return $167. ($100/.6)


The danger with staking systems is that the longer a bad run lasts, the more up ********e creek you are. What I am doing is limiting a run to 30 races so your bet shouldn't get past double its original bet.

Please Note:

This will increase your return percentage because you are betting more on your winning bets. I would not recommend using any staking system unless you are capable of returning at least 95% on straight bets......
I only bet fixed odds, and only bet to return a figure. This is my recommendation only.

Benny 14th April 2005 02:34 PM

Thanks. What you say is very interesting. How can I make a spreadsheet like the one you mention.

Benny

BJ 14th April 2005 02:52 PM

I am probably not the best person to ask about spreadsheets. Yes they get the job done, but I am probably the only one to make sense of them, there is usually ********e everywhere....

But what you need is a column for:
a/ Dividend
b/ * for a Win
c/ 1/Dividend
d/ Win Count
e/ c(tally)
f/ d/e
g/ 100(base)/f

When you get 30 results into the sheet you need along with d and e, d31-d1 and e31-e1.
This will limit any changing of the base to 30 races.
You also need a basic understanding of if statements.

If you need further help I could probably whip you up 1 in a few days when I get home...
email is mohttnerb @ hotmail . com

Benny 14th April 2005 03:21 PM

BJ I have sent you a email.

I hope you get it as I have just had a time out and I don't know how long it will last.

Benny

BJ 17th April 2005 06:01 PM

Didn't get an email. mohttnerb@hotmail.com


All times are GMT +10. The time now is 02:38 AM.

Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.