1st Up
 

forgive my ignorance. Does this mean 31.5% of horses 1-3 up win 28.5% of the races and 30.77% of horses 4-9 up win 36.2% of the races and thus the horses 10+ runs up from a spell represent 37.73% of runners and win 37.3% of the time. This would give respectively rf figures of 0.904, 1.176 and 0.988. But the first is over three measurements 1st up 2nd up and 3rd up, the second is over six measurements 4th up etc and the remainder over who knows.

The rf figures show an increase from one to two and again from two to three. obviously they must increase again at 4th up etc as the bulk of horses reach their peak and then decrease. Can someone please post the rf figures for 4up etc to highlight this peak.

We are told to avoid betting on horses back from a spell but thinking outside the circle couldn't more value be found here?

These are the fiqures:
Run Run% Win% Rf
1 11.86 9.83 0.828
2 10.51 9.29 0.884
3 9.13 9.38 1.027
4 7.82 8.90 1.139
5 6.58 7.66 1.165
6 5.44 6.59 1.211
7 4.46 5.33 1.196
8 3.60 4.26 1.182
9 2.87 3.46 1.203
10 2.28 2.72 1.192
11 1.81 2.13 1.178
12 1.42 1.65 1.164
13 1.14 1.28 1.127
14 0.90 0.98 1.090

1,321,029 runs 129,124 races
The balance of the horses missing are made up of a great number which never spelled (84 plus days) and first starters which didn't make it to a spell.
They reach a plateau at 6 which is maintained to run 9 when a slow decline starts. Sorry if the fiqures are to close but you still should be able to read them and I don't know anything about spacing or bold texting except for the smilies!

Thanks Nanook
This does put it in to perspective. Just went through todays results. there were some good paying third up winners, but it is a case of sorting the crap from the chaff and hoping like hell to get a glimmer of gold. there may be a case for including these 1-3 uppers at a discount rather than a blanket ommission