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- - y stop (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=9401)

Quote:

Originally Posted by BJ

Of course everything can come in clusters. If you have a strike rate of 20% it doesn't mean that in every 5 race block you will have 1 winner.
Personally I believe in keeping on going. I believe I have an edge so why stop. All I would be doing is losing money by stopping. The way I bet is not a day to day thing, it is a continuous series of bets, so some days I will expect to lose money.
The reason I bet, is because I want to make enough money to not have to work. It is because I believe that I can. My objective is to make as much money as possible. Why settle. I do not care about having a high POT. As long as I am returning more than I am risking, then that is all I can hope for. My aim is to return 105-110% on my outlay, so the more I outlay the more I make, the more races I bet on, the more I outlay.
I believe in what I am doing so there is no need to stop.
I would suggest that people who do stop if they reach a certain profit for the day, are really not that confident in their ideas over the long term. What are they scared of? Losing their profit for the day?
I understand that spending all day betting is not an ideal lifestyle, but would people be confident of winning long term if they bet for a certain period of time each day regardless of your profit or loss?

Hi!
I can only reiterate, " Each to his own method"
Never criticised anyone never will.
Good luck to you.
Cheers.

BJ
I don't care how good you are, what ever method you use my feeling is if you continue betting all day UNLESS you have an edge of which less than 1% of punters have on a long term basis then you are going to come out a loser.
I am a firm believer in the law of averages and the law of averages tells me that what I do will put me ahead by 1 to 1.5 points ahead every day at some stage.
My usual bet is $400 sometimes smaller depending on the fixed odds or the size of the pool on the tabs. If I could have got fixed odds of $5 on my bet today I would have bet the $400 but compared to tab prices the fixed price was dismal so the bet was smaller because of pool size.
As mentioned before, everyone to his own thing but just work out $400 bet with a profit daily of 1 to 1.5 points over a month with very few losing days.
Seriously I am in this for the money and nothing else, I don't care if the horse is a champion or a maiden, I don't care if the jockey is in the top 5 or an apprentice having his first ride, as long as my selection runs a hole I am happy.

All the best.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kenchar

My point is: What is the difference between continuing on that day or another day? At some stage you will risk the money you gained. If you don't have an edge then you cannot guarantee being in front at some stage of the day.
If you are in it for the money and have an edge, surely you can see the value in betting as much as possible.

BJ,
Sorry can't agree.
I admit I have followed some days through and I would have made a motza.
Other days I have followed through and I would have lost a lot more than a motza, after being over my profit up.
If you have that enviable pot of 10% or more on a consistant basis over a very long period on WIN bets I agree, then I would continue regardless, and the sky is the limit.
The problem with what I do on the place is very limited because of divi's and the size of place pools, but it is very consistant.
The other thing is I HATE losing and when I read on this forum of people talking of 15 or 20 outs it scares the hell out of me, and that is why I have a safety break of losses on a day.
It gets back to my theory of law of averages when I'm having a bad one, knock off because it isn't my day.
I posted a while ago that I had a couple of bad weeks, and couldn't give a reason why except that I thought that just my head was going in a spin, knocked off for a few days, and came good again.
What I do is tedious, and believe me is no fun, but is ery rewarding.

Cheers

I also believe in the law of averages, but did not know that it had any time factors associated with it. I had a good day today so the chances are that next time will be a bad day to 'average' things out. If that is the case then why bet next time if you presume it will be a bad day. If I take 1 day off, will that be the bad day, or will it wait until the next time I choose to bet?

There is no mathematical reason to stop. Each new race is a new event, and nothing from the past will change that. Yes things will probably average out, but there is nothing to suggest it will happen straight away.

At the end of the day, as long as you are comfortable with what you are doing, then who am I to argue. Good luck and I hope it keeps working for you.