Thursday 20/6/2002

Gosford R6 Horse 2 ANCIENT SONG

Townsville R9 Horse 2 TYPHOON BARNEY

Ancient Song - 2/2 2nd up.
Only 12 days since 1st up run though - better if it was a few days more.

$5 or more would be a good price for Ancient Song.

Saturday's picks :

Brisbane

R7 15 Desktop Lover
R7 5 Flying Sparks
R7 3 Kreisler Mirage
R7 1 Adamantly

R6 16 Russian Caravan
R6 3 Juanmo
R6 1 Paris Heartbeat

R5 10 Crete
R5 9 Citichy
R5 6 Alpine Express
R5 4 Machtig Mihi Panis
R5 3 Kenconcarne
R5 2 Pembleton
R5 1 Bomber Bill

R4 10 Sheer Devotion

R8 12 Royal Circle
R8 10 Hirschberg
R8 9 Lord Denning

Perth

R6 3 MasterClan

R3 1 The Right Money

Melbourne

R5 8 Bellonic
R5 12 Royal Treen

R6 2 Bush Padre
R6 8 Moonah Brooke

R7 4 Lady Wild

R8 1 Raja Lane

Sydney
R1 2 Outward Display

R2 1 Power Of Pegasus
R2 3 Ilze
R2 5 Manzeal

R3 1 Penny Opera

R4 3 Gramercy

R6 1 Call Me Lily (entered R7 too).
R6 2 Arrabeea

R7 1 Call Me Lily (entered R6 too).
R7 3 Impregnable

Adelaide

R6 2 Romilada

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-21 02:36 ]

Forgive me Equine Investor, but what are we trying to achieve here? You've practically picked the field in one of the races? Are they seriously all in your stable?

Placegetter, these picks are obviously all well in advance and allowing for scratchings, certainly these are the CLASS horses of the fields. Quite often one of these horses will salute at good odds because of moderate late form and have been abandoned by the betting public.

Yes, they are all in my stable. I have over 250 stable horses at the moment. Some are in work and some are racing.

I think you're on a hinding to nothing here. Every serious punter now operates a black book - similar to your "stable".
If you get a few winners, people are going to say - well you tipped 25 horses. If you don't they are going to bag you.

Like I said before - this always seems to happen with "stable" systems - you end up with too many horses in a race.

You might as well just start off with the entire field.

The only way this would work is if you had a small no of horses in your stable like a previous posting said he had. Any more than 30 and its not going to be viable.

[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-21 12:21 ]

As I said before, you are backing the horse to win over it's next 5 starts. If there are five horses selected in a race, and they come up against eachother 5 times in a row, is the same horse going to win each time?

Not usually.

Therefore, often we will see a horse salute at overs which will more than cover the investment.
As I said there is no point judging this til the first selections have had five runs.

EI, I must admit I nearly fell out of the chair when you said there are 250 horses in your "stable".

I've similarly run "stables" over the years and rarely had more than 30 horses.

Also, looking at some of the selections for tomorrow, it would appear that some of them have already "peaked" during this prep and are one run from the paddock.

Of course I hope you can win with them but I could never justify backing 7 horses in the same race. (not to mention I think you've missed the winner!)

Good luck anyway.

How many horses are in Gai Waterhouse's stable?

How many in Lee Freedman etc.

Well, I have taken the best out of each TOP stable.

This system is not designed to capture the selections that are well in the market, it is designed to catch good horses at good odds.

Bear in mind these selections were made on Thursday, well before scratchings etc. So I would predict less than seven horses actually running.
Let's just see how this works out, over the next few weeks before criticism.

Not that I mind any healthy debate.
:wink:

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-21 16:30 ]