If you are interested in strike rates and %POT have a look at this page www.videocam.net.au/koala/strikerates.html which will be active tomorrow afternoon (Sat).

Ten different types of bets are calculated 40 seconds before scheduled race starts with the strike rates and %POT updated during the afternoon.

Thankyou
 

Thanks to everyone for your input its helped out alot. At the present time I'm researching money management through the archived posts, but if anyone has a factor they believe is important to bank/money management feel free to share your knowledge.

Cheers
Nanook

Nanook,
Number 1 is protection of the bank - without that you've got nothing. If you're in it for the long haul somewhere in the future you'll almsot certainly have a bad run on occasions, your money management strategies need to be able to cope with this.

If you're using some form of progressive staking, it's better IMO to try to shift the percentages in your favour to some degree, not trying to recoup every last dollar from losing bets.

There's much more to be said, it's a huge topic. Learning how to win is only half the battle ... learning how not to lose is the other half. This applies equally to selection process, betting style and money management.

Even though I'm interested in these musings, I'm having difficulty accepting that the horses can be so meticulously or "scientifically" assessed that winning becomes REGULAR AS CLOCKWORK, which seems to be what faith in a fixed POT amounts to. It is almost as bad as the "gambler's ruin" in roulette etc (ie the winners are DUE!!). Effectively, trust in POT (especially trying to "scientifically" increase it) seems a waste of time.....as follows: let's say you had 1000 bets in a year at $1 each and you've hit 200 winners at an average of 5-1 (ie you've got 200 x $6 back=$1200 return) which is 20% profit (or POT). Now you KNOW you're on your way to "riches" because after a long trial you've cracked THE SECRET and plough in with everything you've got. You sell the house and whatever else to make "a killing" and will now put $400 on every bet (ie your $400,000 Net Worth, divided by next years 1000 bets) and will earn $80000 (20% POT) annually. Of course,even if your POT falls to 15% you'll still be happy with $60,000!!
If your POT is 10% (consistent and regular) and you HONESTLY believe it will CONTINUE to be so, then there's no reason not to "shoot for the moon". The problem is that POT is an "after the event" concept and as even the most expert "Sharemarket Gurus" put in the fine print (after boasting in the BIG print...15% Return p.a. over the Last 5 years!!!!etc), PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.
Anyway,good punting this afternoon to one and all.

If you don't know what your POT is then you can't plan...thats why most punters lose....go to a TAB and ask any one there what there POT is...but you get the answer "who cares" most are lucky if they even know how much they have bet for the day.

If my POT is 10% a month i know that in 8 months i can double my bank.....knowledge is power and the more you know about your punting the more power you have over it.

Morning Shaun!! It's not that we shouldn't have a plan but rather that POT is NOT predictable, and very difficult to calculate UNTIL IT HAPPENS. What I mean is: say you are betting 20 times every Saturday and coming out 10% ahead each week, it will "seem" clear you can double your bank in 10 weeks (more or less) at level stakes,and then again in 10 more weeks etc and be rather wealthy in a short while, as your gains compound
This would be a relentless process IF profit on turnover rolled on forever as "it should".But,alas horseracing is not like that.Past performance is no guarantee. POT is purely an "after the event" concept (maybe a misconception ) Please see below.
I have a POT of 10% and am dreaming of doubling my bank (currently $1000) and then doubling my bets from $10 to $20 and so on. My first bet hits a 100-1 shot and I'm "over the moon" as my bank IS doubled (also a POT of 10,000% at that point,too). Now I start betting $20 and after 47 outs I'm back to $1060 (ie I've invested the original $10 plus 47x$20 = $950) but am still about 11.5% up ON TURNOVER as $1060-$950 is that percentage. Now,should I persist with $20 bets??? If I bet the next $1060 in 53 bets and ,THIS TIME, achieve a few winners and a 9% POT, my bank'll will have increased to $1160. Looking at it from the beginning I'll have an increase of 16% overall which is very good AND steady POTs of 11.5 and 9 percent, which are about my "average". However,looking at it from "afterwards' I will now be in the position where I've actually bet $10+$940+$1060 = $2010 and have a "true" POT of about 8% AND I will have suffered an actual decline from $2010(after the big win) to $1160 (a loss of $850) from bet#2 onwards, despite further (smaller) wins. At this point AM I DOING WELL?? Is my selection method "on the skids'?? Is my "scientifically" calculated POT of 10% going to save my bank?
If anyone is still reading, then the conclusions are obvious. Like every other measurement in racing POT is ARBITRARY, determined by when you actually hit the winners; what they paid; when (or if) you decide to increase your betting level AND if you suffer a longish run of outs before the compensating(?) favourable POT resumes. It is especially misleading since your results will be totally determined by WHEN you take "the snapshot" of your performance.(A bit like HIH, One Tel and all those other creative accountancy disasters) Personally, I regard it all (POT) as misleading. Not WRONG to consider it,though I prefer to bet UNENCUMBERED by any notion of WHAT SHOULD BE. After all, isn't that exactly the HOOK that most rip-off system-sellers and spivs try to con US with!!?? Cheers and good punting, and lots of POT!!

pot
 

isnt pot simply a measurement of past performance, which is then used as a guide as to the sucess or faliure of ones current performance.

far from being misleading, knowing where one is at any given time is essential, & pot is one of those essential guides.


& not to change the subject, but my other 1/2 just read this post & wants to know why we are discussing the green stuff on a gambling website?? :)

Hi Davez. Keep it simple. The way to know how you're doing is to COUNT the folding stuff in your wallet. If there's more there than before you started betting that day you're a winner. If that amount is still in your pocket at the beginning of the next "session" and it increases again you're STILL a winner. If it declines on day 2 but increases the next then, once again,you're STILL winning. In business this is the CASH-FLOW model and is the surest sign of any company's real financial position. All the rest is fancy accounting to disguise impending disaster. Remember the dot.com sharemarket collapse. The Rate of Cash Burn told you EXACTLY how long a business had left. It tells you the same about a punter's financial "health" and when you can expect their "System" to collapse too!!! (Or NOT!!!)Cheers.

If you are on the punt to make money as opposed to just have some fun you must be anticipating that you will come out in front in the long term. Since none of us can see forward in time to predict our future success the only indications we can gain are from looking backwards and seeing what has happened in the past. Profit on turnover has to be the most accurate measure of whether we have made money or not and if so at what rate we have made it. If this POT is measured across sufficient races, and I am talking about going back at least a couple of years, I see it as being a very good guide to how you are going to go in the future (barring changing your betting methods or something). If you are making a POT over a period of years (or can accurately test your system against past races and guage effective POT) you can bet with confidence going into the future and after balancing a few things like your courage, resources and the regularity of your POT you can decide how much to bet.
IMHO POT is what it's all about.

KV

Got to admit I took a shortcut to get here and then stopped!
You're funny.