With my betting i will go with percentage of bank any time and i look at my profits as P.O.T and if i can make between 10% and 20% i am happy no matter how much i bet......i have seen lots of talk of a max drawdown is there a downloadable calculator for this some where or can you give me the formulat so i can make one......

Here you go Shaun and Mad Gambler -

http://home.iprimus.com.au/jfc2000/drawdown.htm


That's what you want. Run the simulation 25 times and you'll get an idea of what you can expect the maximum one to be.

Crash 'n' all, re: punting bank. You are correct crash, the bank is theoretical as far as the investments are concerned. In my case the "bank" IS available, but as a re-draw from my mortgage account. I would be total nut to keep that sort of money in a betting account or even in a cash management account.
They charge me $10 a month to keep the account open (as there is $0 balance) now, whether or not I would get cold feet after 25% of my bank dissappeared or 50% etc etc. Not sure, hope I never have to make that decision, but this where that drawdown figure is so important and especially timing, as if I'm losing previous winnings it's a hell of a lot different to a long losing stretch from a self funded bank.

But, make sure you have a "fig leaf" hee hee!

Spot on - the mental torture is unbelievable too :(

Can i run some figures and tell me what you think.


I have a method the produces 34.25% winners at an average price of $3.22 i ran this on that page and this is what i get

10.29 edge
-0.18 profit/loss
12.8 max drawdown
8 longest run of outs
i ran this over 100 times

well as for the longest outs i have had a run of 13 outs so thats a bit off there.

can you expalin what these meen i know what the edge is because that my P.O.T

Shaun how can the profit/loss be negative?

Maximum drawdown is the largest drop from a bank peak.

I must have done somthing wrong...i re ran the test

10.29% edge
3.04 profit/loss
18.48 max drawdown
13 longest run of outs
100 times


funny how i was just saying i had a 13 run of outs and in the nest test it gets the same

PSS go to that webpage and put in the numbers i have given 34.25% average price $3.22 100 times and press the simulate button a couple of times and watch the numbers change....strange how can this be accurate if they change in such a big way


Number of trials is that like number of selections

Take that as an example, Bank of $50k, bets of $1000 each (personally I would be betting only $500 with a $50k bank but still) so in theory the largest drawdown is $18,500.

So if the "bank" stood at say $60K+ b4 that drastic reduction, you may well be able to handle it, but if you lost $18,500 from a starting bank of $50k, I reckon you would need to double the "Coversil" tablets......

I play the safe game, and although it might cost me, the idea is to preserve the bank or at least some of the profit.

I stop betting if I've lost half my bank to reasses, or if I've doubled my bank, stop if half the profit goes.

Hi Shaun,

Chance of winning and Decimal odds I'm sure you've got right. Number of trials is the number of bets you want to simulate the system over. Maybe you could enter in the number of bets you expect to make over a year.

The edge is the profit you can expect from getting an expected divvy (as entered) every how ever many bets (chance of winning percentage as entered) this won't change how ever many bets coz you still should be winning at the same rate overall.

The simulator then runs a random number generator to see if you would have won or lost each bet in the number of trials you set.
The profit comes from the result of the random number generator allowing you how ever many wins from the number of bets you selected.
The maximum drawdown is the drop from your highest point (after a win probably) to your following lowest point. This is important because if you started betting on the day when your highest point had been reached you may have been unlucky and got to your lowest point before you started winning again. If the drawdown is bigger than your bank it's return to go, don't collect $200.
Longest run of outs is just that maximum number of consecutive lost bets.

Duritz suggested you run it a few times because rather like horse racing the random element can give you better or worse outcomes over the same number of bets. This gives you a range of likely maximum drawdowns and allows you to judge the percentage of your bank you feel like risking.

Hope this helps
KV

Drawdown
 

Hi all!
If anyone has the race venue, race date, race number, horse number- or name, of the selections to qualify in your system, in some sort of file, I can run it through past results and give an accurate drawdown and profit- loss figure. Don't want to know how you get the selections!!!
Just an offer of help while I have some spare time.
Cheers

Most new businesses go broke due to under capitalization. That's our big problem too I think. The capital to kick ass when we are on to something and return a meaningful return in serious $$$. Stuff % POT. It might sound good but we are mostly talking peanuts in actual $$$.

Yeah it's one of those rock-and-a-hard-place scenarios: as someone earlier said, you don't want to mortgage the mortgage in order to get a punting bank because your nerves (and marriage) will be in tatters when the inevitable losing streak lobs on the doorstep (and likely beginning at bet #1), so ideally you want to do it out of punting winnings - but if you had a massive bank of punting winnings you wouldn't be inventing a system, because whatever you were doing would be obviously working a treat!

Yeah i kinda worked it out....i don't thimk my first post was a mistake it was an example of how things can go wrong if you run these figures in the page 20 times see the different results

win 34.25%
average dive $3.22
run over 600 bets that would be the average for the your

run that 20 times and see what you get.

Reckon I just ran it 50 times at least and always got between 11 and 55 Max drawdown. Always turned a profit though and Max drawdown centred about the 25 mark.

So, you could bet 1% of your bank with utter confidence (provided nothing changes) and if you like the thrill of gambling get away with 2% in all but about 2 in 50 years of punting.

The results look pretty reasonable to me. Seemed to be following a pretty typical bell curve type of distribution with only a few exceptionally high and low results. Don't know about you but I have no problems with what it's showing me.

KV

Hi KV!
Hope I am not a 'persona non grata' in your book?
One question regarding the drawdown calculator, Don't you think introducing a random element into an already, more or less random operation, like punting, is asking for trouble?

Not wanting to argue, just curious as to what your thoughts are on the matter?
I personally do prefer as much certainty as I can get, and God knows there is very little of that in racing anyway.

Hi Iomaca,

I think drawdown calculator is probably an overflattering name - it's actually a simulator.
The way it works is thussly:
For every bet of your simulation it creates a random number and lets say your win rate is 20% - if that random number is 0.20001 to 0.99999 you lose, if it's 0.00001 to 0.20000 you win. This gives a pretty realistic representation of your chances of winning any particular race with your preferred system.
It carries this on for all the bets of your simulation and personally I can't think of a better way to emulate the seemingly random chances of your horse winning each race with the claimed strike rate of your system.
When one of these simulated races results in a win for you you get the claimed average winning divvy, your bank after each race is calculated and things like maximum drawdown and longest loosing streak are computed.
When run a number of times it simulates realistically for mine the ups and downs of betting. Sometimes you do better than others and you have no control over whether it's a good run or a bad one.

The only improvement I can see it having is a further random element to vary the dividend it pays out each time you win. This would average out at the claimed average divvy but may be higher or lower with each win.

We'd all like a bit of certainty but this little "toy" mirrors the uncertainty of punting nicely I reckon.

DISCLAIMER. Calculation particulars are in the spirit of the program but may not represent the actual finer points of the mechanics of said program, any losses incurred as a result of using the program are not to be laid at the door of the person writing this disclaimer as he did not program the program.

Nice disclaimer!

Hi Duritz,
You mentioned the commodity prices may fall.
The only way they will fall is 4 main things over the next 2 years is.
1)The new emerging country , China suddenly stops expanding (unlikley)
2) America lowers their consumption for stuff for things to run (unlikley)
e.g. they use 40% of the world oil resources just to run around in circles.
Their society revolves around consumables.
3)That there is an explosion of new mining companies cropping up on the seen all up & running , all at the same time, selling stuff at a lower price (wont happen over next few years because it takes a long time to get just one of those things operational let alone profitable.)
4)The large companies stop buying up their competitors (Large companies have been doing this over the last year or so e.g. the largest gold producer now controls 40% of the world market. BHP have done similar things.
So if the few large companies control most of the production ,that could also mean they contol supply & if one controls supply , one controls the price to be paid.

Big companies now mainly invest in new projects with cash saved after dividends paid & not so much with borrowed money . This means more secure returns for investors & less risk for the company.

So ...
I beleive we will see a new surge in commodity prices over the next 12 mounths .
Copper ,odly enough, is the benchmark other commodities follow as their guide . This is tracked on the London stock exchange very closely , it has just broken through the resistance curve for a new record high after massive profit taking in the beginning of the year, which is recognised as an indicator for other commodities to rise. Known as a Bullish market.

My tip..
Buy into a manged fund called Colonial First State -Global Resources Fund.
Min investment $1000
Assert rating 4 stars (2nd highest rating for security)
Risk is spread over more than 60+ world wide Blue Chip mining companies.
One can have some or all their Superannuation placed into it , just by asking your fund manager , including the one at work , to do so.

Last year it went up 60% & indicators show it may get close to that again.
Because of the big players have more control over market prices from their opposition & are in a stronger position to guarantee the needy supply.
e.g. No point a smaller company having lower prices if one cant guarantee supply.
(Seek professional advice before doing so )

Cheers.

Bagman,

Well you have a few holes there I think. No 3 is what is happening right now. Major competition is coming on tap now. The infrastructure they needed is what has given us this big head start. We will not maintain the prices we have been getting for commodities.

There's one rogue element you have left out. This bird Flu that is racing across the world. If it goes human to human [not if but when], the world economy will stop overnight. There will be more chaos in the west than the east. The west is almost totally reliant on distribution of everything from our main city ports
and produce markets.

Delivery and distribution of everything will grind to a halt. We do not have 'Surge' capacity to deal with a major crisis. That was clearly demonstrated by the aftermath of 'Katrina'. Think biological crisis. Any volunteers to distribute food?

Think of a 'Katrina' in every western city and town happening all at once !!
Think Paynesville/Bainsdale, we have enough food here to last a week and then what? Think thousands of towns just like ours. Think no electricity [very quickly] and then no water supply. Think PANIC everywhere and no food.

We are a pared down society of 'just in time' economic driven supply. There will be nothing coming into our ports and no one to distribute it if there where. We will be in a starvation situation in the west almost immediately, not the east [everything they need is local].
Forget hospitals they are already full and will be in chaos within 24 hrs. Kill rate might hit 50% worldwide. Economy? What economy? :-)

Below is a white washed simple version of what to do [you know, 'children, we get under our desks when the atomic bomb falls' veriety]. still worthwhile. The link to the 'heavy' stuff I'll leave out.

http://www.survivetheflu.com/food.html

So, Mad Gambler, have you settled on a percentage of your bank now? I think we've covered pretty much everything that can possibly affect your decision. :)

But what will happen to racing, Crash? What will happen to racing?????

Remember - if they still race, we can still buy hot chips and hot dogs.

Well, I don't know about horse racing but Zoe and I can watch you lot run around like headless chickens and have bets on who will drop dead first, while we cook up a storm [on our abundantly stored gas supply for the barbie] for 3 mths., from our abundant food supply we have been so sensible in organizing beforehand. Toilet paper will be the first thing your supermarket runs out of [if it's open and there is anyone game enough to serve you].

Shotgun cartridges, yep stocked up on those too so don't try to 'visit' :-)

If nothing happens [ho ho], we can always donate the supplies to charity or just eat them.

Good luck boyo's.

Crash!
Not being half as pessimistic about birdflue as the site you provided suggest,
but I though it was only sensible to be prepared for emergencies.
Doesn't even take anything as drastic as a cyclone to disrupt power.
And without power and water for a couple days, 99% of the people in cities would be in real strife.
Cheers

Duritz, well at least we can get our own back, WE CAN EAT THE HORSES,

actually had some horse meat in the Philippines recently not that bad actually, but I drew the line at the Dog, and the gollied eggs.

Crash, surprised that site didn't explain how easy it is to distil dirty water with 2 containers (or even 2 plastic bags) and a piece of tube just with the heat of the Sun.

2 plastic bags and a tube A?
I tried purify water that had dead cows floating in it many years ago on the side of the fitzroy river in WA when trapped by a flood. I failed miserably. How do you do it PP?

KV!
one plactic bag with dirty water in the sun, tube above water, plactic bag sealed around it.
second bag in shade tube inserted, presto!

And how does it work, then? What's the process that makes it happen?


(Crash - and we thought we were off the topic BEFORE!)

Water in the house pipes even though they are cut off. Water in the hot water tank if you know how to access that lot. Keep filling the bath until the water is gone [suddenly]. 1 drop of bleach per litre and you can store it for a hell of a long time [in bleach cleaned containers]. Forget food when it hits the head-lines. It will be too late to get any.

The supermarket in Caratha was empty days ago and the hurricane hasn't even hit yet. Imagine a crisis involving a highly contagious killer flu [?] Emergency workers with Tamiflu tablets saving aust.[?] They won't work and nor will anyone [work].

We really should do what NZ has done and advise people to stock up NOW. However the economy there has stopped and is now officially in recession. Perhaps we [our Government] don't want to worry anyone here into stopping their spending like there is no tomorrow. Our economy needs us. 'She'll be right"! :-)

Duritz!!!!!
I know you are being sarcastic. If not ???

you blokes have lost it........ seriously lost it...... keep it going its brilliant !

Don't know about tinned food and the rest but I've got two cupboards full of adult disposable nappies. You don't think the sewerage system's going to work do you?

This one covers your stock option and portfollio in case the 'biggy' hits:-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_pa...pandemic_period

Crash,
If you eat the cartridges, please don't stand in front of me if you drop one.

That would be just my luck Crash and I beat the bird flu, wer'e camping out I'm having a snooze, and Crash is bending over the billy making a cup of brew after eating some of the baked beans he has stored away.

Bye Bye Kenchar.:rolleyes:

Kenchar,
I'll blow my head out of my a...

Won't come soon enough the Handbrake says:-)

Crash, what I want to know is if you ever do that naked run through the main street of Melbourne, would it be considered to be a "winning STREAK"?

With my body image Party? I don't think so :-(


On a more serious note. Does anyone read: http://www.counterpunch.org/ ? A top site for writers and journalist to air their views on current affairs outside of their newspaper policies. On there I found the below disturbing article on the Bird flu. Very well thought out and written. Bit of a freak-out. Quite a bit of a freak-out actualy. I'ts what got me going here on the subject.

"WILL IT CROSS OVER"?
The CP interview: Dr. Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy talks about the flu bug that could bring the world to its knees.

http://citypages.com/databank/27/1320/article14219.asp

So, MadGambler, I hope that answers your initial question then!

Meanwhile, I have been giving some thought to Mad gambler's question. And now he has his food bank, the other 2 banks are ready to swing into action !

There has been talk here of reducing, non reducing and 1 or 2%. I think Mad's idea of 3% flat stakes probably reflects preferred bet size for a $500 bank to bet from: $15 bets.

Originally he had bets in 130 races for 48 winners for 218 selections in 3 months. That works out at about 18 bets a week or $270 a week in bets of $15

Quote:
out: $218.00
in; $263.30
I'm sure Mad means units here and not $ unless he is having $0.50c bets. [I'm not knocking the 50c punter but they don't need a betting bank, just a spare change piggy bank].

The fact that Mad is in a position to put aside a $500 bank as a spare means his life is not hanging on his betting bank, so for him to have a realistic betting experience, 1% of bank would be 'safe' but at $5 a bet, too low a bet amount for him I think.

I'd plumb for 2% $10 bets non-reducing [keeps the betting simple] as it is a reasonable bet amount and as Mad obviously by his SR figures, bets around the shorties, there is nothing too risky going on regarding runs of outs, nor with his betting habits. Having a $500 spare bank is a good move for 2% bets.

3% of bank is pushing the envelope unless bank renewal is no big deal or hardship.

So there you go, food bank and betting bank sorted :-)

Mad I've been giving it thought too. Over the last 24 hours I've had a great deal of thinking time, as I toiled in the back yard digging my "bird flu shelter", completely quarantined from the outside world, and as I set up my patented state of the art "Duritz's Water Purifier and System Staking Plan" which runs in tubes in concentric circles around my Quarantine Shelter, and I've come up with this for you, Mad:

You've got two banks, $500 each. I think there's some truth in what Crash says, that you've picked 3% because you don't want to have too tiny a bet on the horse, $15 keeps you interested, $5 does not (which is 1%).

However, I still think at some point you'll slaughter yourself with 3%, even with a high strike rate of 35% odd. So here's what I suggest:

Take your two $500 banks, and merge them, marry them if you will. Hell, we can have a ceremony in my Quarantine Pit, the marriage of Mad's banks, Crash can be the priest.

So, marry them, and you have one bank, $1000. I know you therefore won't have a backup, but you won't need it.

Now, because you've got a high strike rate, you can start out a little bit more aggressively than the 1% I advocate, so start at 1.5%, increasing/reducing. Co-incidentally, this equals $15. So, you start out at $15, and also make this your minimum level. If you go below $1000, keep it at $15 because you want to have a little bit of action. It's all very well having an increasing/reducing method but no-one can get on for 20c bets.

So, make it a 1.5% increasing/reducing stake, with a minimum of $15. Now, here's the safety bit, ASSUMING (and that's a big assumption, nothing personal, just that 99.99% of systems fail) that your bank grows, build a safety somewhere for yourself. IE, set a figure at which begin to drop the % you have on from 1.5% to 1.0%. It's safer, and it's all very well punting aggressively but you can't punt aggressively if you don't have a $ to punt with.

Do that, Mad, if your system works, that'll work, and keep us posted with how you're going.

Oh yeah, and if the bird flu comes, stay away from my Quarantine Pit come Water Purifier and System Staker method, patented, dammit!