record
 

hey xanadu and all,,,,,,,,,,i dont think the ride on dance hero was bad and the time they ran was a new record,the way shaina let down at the end was the sign of a horse with a lot class,,,but time will tell...
xanadu it was interesting to notice that between gai,hawkes,bart,beadman,boss there was not that much left for the others....................cheers.........gaz...... ....

Interesting Race
 

Greetings to all,
Iomaca - goodonya! you identified a class performer which was well over the odds and ignored the general trend of the betting public, good luck to you.
Sportz - good bet! you were able to turn a profit from an "upset" result - keep doing that and you will survive in the long-run.
Gazman - it is an interesting statistic isn't it? The major stables and riders certainly get all the "cream" and the "battlers" have to be content with the "crumbs." Then again why shouldn't excellence be rewarded?
Let's face it...the Waterhouse stable certainly supports the country and provincial circuit especially at Newcastle, Gosford and Wyong where she takes her lesser lights and potentially promising candidates for an "easy" kill. Seriously, an astute punter can make a good living from following her runners at these venues as most are high class, high cost, well-bred individuals which are working their way through the classes before taking on the more elite opposition in town. To a lesser extent, the same applies for the Hawkes establishment so I suppose that, as far as benefit to the industry goes, the domination by the mega stables may not be such a bad thing.

Cheers.

Just heard this morning that Carry On Cutie was greatly inconvenienced by Snippetson in the run. So, I'm still hopeful of a good spring for her.

Carry On Cutie
 

Yeah, she was given a bit of a "buffetting" from other runner(s), who, by the way , set a very solid pace - don't forget, she is still probably a bit immature but I agree, she should pay to follow this Spring.
After you mentioned it the other day it received solid pre-post support, maybe you "lit the fire" of support for it.

Cheers

The fact that it was a new record would indicate to me that it wasn't the best ride by Beasley. He had Spark of Life covered a long way from home and they were already travelling at an enormous pace. If he had just stayed with the leader until the final furlong he would've most likely won the race. The winner was very impressive and surprised me, but Ikes Dream got home just as well as her and Carrie On Cutie who was molested by Snippetson did run a good race and judging by the follow on was full of running towards the end. Thousand Guineas looks an ideal target.

Was also extremely impressed by the second placed Pendragon earlier in the day, they really walked early and he was physically no chance of getting to the leader from second last in the time they sprinted home. Come time for the Golden Rose he will be spot on, and they don't walk in front in million dollar races, i am declaring him already.

Would you share some of the criteria that helped you back the winner.I rated Dance Hero way in front, but unbackable at the odds.

The winner I only rated worth backing on breeding and had it 5 out of 6.Shania Dane must have huge potential to run down DH the way it did

Yeah Mr ed,

Pendragon certainly has the "big wrap" on him at the moment. Also, has top trainer, top jockey and is leading up to that race very nicely having finished from 7th at the 400m to run second, beaten 3/4 len by Paratrooper, which was ridden a masterful ride by Beadman.
I can see why you are so confident and expecting a top run in it's next race.

Cheers.

I wasn't suprised at all. It was a no bet race for me anyway, but i can recall shania dane doing something similar early in the autumn, i can;t remember the race but i am pretty sure she stormed home in a big race and upset the apple cart.

I thought dance hero was miles in front with everything "being even". But i knew that wouldnt be the case. The instructions for spark of life would be to ride more agressively at the start at all costs. I think the message from the trainer would have been don't stay out of touch with dance hero even if it means stuffing up your own chances. That sounds stupid, but if spark of life was to take a sit, then with no other speed in the race the hero would run them off their feet like previously. Wheras if you go out for the front then at least there is a chance that dance hero might be inconvenienced in the run or something. It was a lose lose situation for both spark of life and dance hero.

With that in mind i thought the only three chances were carry on cutie, ikes dream and shania dane. i was going to go with carry on cutie but she was unders in my opinion. Then i saw the price for ikes dream and shania dane which i thought were pretty much equal chances and thought it was a bit fishy so left it alone.

I think it was one of those races where on paper you go oh well dance hero is a moral. But then you say to yourself, tactics???

I agree with Mr Ed though. Beasley went to early.

true
 

mr ed and t,mr ed how much more time do think dance hero would have taken of that record if it was riden better????????that record has stood a lot of class horse over the years and ikes dream had no chance of beating dance hero i do feel for the jock as if he stood back and took the sit everyone would be jumping all over him.............as for pendragon ive seen boss ride a loy better,but maybe he was told to ride it like that.....cheers .....gaz.........

Yeah Tenacious Spirit,

She won those two quality races in the autumn then was spelled and came back primed for Saturday's race with a solid barrier trial on 5.8.05. Obviously, she grew and matured during her spell and was ready for Saturday's race, although as mentioned before, tactics employed by other riders presented her with the perfect opportunity to upset the well fancied runners.
We now roll on the lead-up races to the Spring carnival and as other top performers reappear there will be innumerable opportunities for the astute punter to prosper.
As I pinpointed in my post on 12.8.05, (SR8 Wild Queen $2.8 $1.4 & SR9 Mystery City $5.1 $1.9) class horses duly won. Class horses will, subject to injury and any other factors, continue to perform as their prior record suggests.

Cheers.

Gazman, i think i may have you confused. Dance Hero wouldn't have broken the record if he waited, but he may very well have won the race. The hectic pace he and SOL set up is what attributed to the record, so they burned off terrific sectionals but come crunch time there was not much left and the horse, who had the slipstream and had not done any work could storm over the top.

Hi!
The rating's criteria I use are:
CombinedRating (all of the following combined):
Time, Class, Form, Distance, Down_in_Class, Margin, Place%, WIN%, APIRanking.

Shania Dane came second in: Time, Form, Distance, and DownClass,
Came third in: class
Came forth in: Win%, Margin, APIRanking
Came fifth in: Place%
Came in third overall with the rated price of $6.7
The reason it came only third overall is that I give different weighting to each criteria.

I have to point out that my time, class and form ratings are quite different in SOME respects to the conventional ratings.

The down in class relies on MY class ratings so you may come to a different outcome on that one as well.
The Margin is simply the best beaten (or winning) margin of the last three runs.
I only use the last 3 to 5 runs for my ratings, not really interested what the horse has or hasn't done in the distant past.
Incidentally I take no notice of the success on distance indicators coming in the form files, simply because the wins or placings on distance could have happened too far back.
For this I use all the runs of the last two years only, and finishing second or third does not rate as high as the beaten margin.
I use Cyberhorse Zip files.

maybe next time
 

hey mr ed,i'm not confused and as T said tactics won the race but i''m saying that if beasley had let SOL get away in front and lost the race that way i'm sure he would have needed a police escort to weight in and his name would go down in history as the man who srcewed up...i'm also sure that if they thought any thing would be able to run him down after such hot sectionals they would run the race differently,,,,,thats the great thing about this game for me i would not bet on the race as i thought the price of dance hero was way under for the type of horses he was running against.the only mention i could see on this forum of shaina was from martin friedman and all credit to him...and will(sorry will )
cheers ...gaz............

The Cyberhorse zip files give you more data than i have access to.

When the winner can beat DH 9 wins from 14, Spark Of Life 8 wins fromfrom 14 and Carry on Cutie 3 from 4 and all of these horses with huge potential given the opposition they have beaten, then Shania Dane must have untapped riches ahead, or will it fade into obscurity as the value of the prize money increases,or were the above preparing to hook bigger fish in the Group races and not being flogged to win a lesser race.:)

You are perfectly right regarding upcoming races and the outcomes.

Cheers

My initial form study reveals there are a number of potential profit-making runners tomorrow which warrant closer scrutiny:
SR3 5 Mystery City
SR5 2 Loftily
SR6 1 Court's In Session(been waiting for this one)
SR6 7 Dance Hero
SR610Dizelle
SR9 7 Lotteria
In race 4, Snitzel and Mr Owl remain under notice. As does Media in race 7, Prince Frederick(race 8) and Danni Martine in the last.
MR2 3 Uprize
MR2 7 Edgy Affair
MR6 8 Perlin, if he is forward enough
MR6 Lad Of The Manor
All are certainly class horses so we will see how they go. I've still got much more form analysis ahead of me yet so c u l8r.
What do think gaz?

Cheers.

Giddy Up X
 

Jump on Court's in Session and Regal Roller.... one out in the exotics....

Defining factor in the Selection Process?
 

Class . What a great discusion. One of the great mystifying variables that attracts so many to the track .Persoanlly , i think 'class' best summed up by the legendary American punter Pittsburgh Phil who was once quoted as saying “Show me the man who can 'class' horses correctly and I will show you the man who can win all the money he wants”. For those that have not heard of Phil, grab his memoirs.A great read.

John

many hours left to work
 

cum''on without cum''on within when quinn the jockey gets there meida will win...
will post saturday xanadu but i do like the look of that story...........
cheers ........gaz...............

hey xanadu and all
 

i hope you liked my little riff to that song(that was dr merlot)
i do like meida today and took the fixed odds just has to run up to last run to be a great show many good horse today ,pitty about melbournes rain so i will stay away from that put all my bets on and i'm going to catch some dhue fish,the best fish in the world to eat its $50 kg at freo at moment and last week i cought a 18kg sucker if you ever come up to mid west wa get in touch and i'll look after you
..........cheers ........gaz..............
regal,,,,,,,,,dance.......oh okla.........lotty

Go gaz!...keep rockin', the horses you have selected should provide you with the profits to really party on.
Stix, yeah if all goes well you should also be in the money today.
john spencer, good snooker player that bloke-although I haven't read that book, I am familiar with his thoughts and ideas which he formulated over a hundred years ago but which still have some benefit for we modern day punters.
A couple of my suggestions have been scratched and I will tread warily in Melbourne today also.

Good luck to all

wind came up ,,,,,go fishin sunday
 

john spencer blues explosion,,,,,,,,,,one of the best bands in the world...
cheers gaz.............it will be of interest to see how the snitz goes today plenty of talk about for it....what is your main go today xanadu,or you going to spread it around ...

The state of the track in Melbourne has me a bit concerned....it is Caulfield after all! I'll just be perusing the markets to see if there is a "nibble" for any runner down in the weights which can handle the ground.
In Sydney I'll probably have a go at those which I mentioned in my post(just got Snitzel up in SR4 1:40pm EST) and I intend to "play it up" on Court's In Session later in the day.....give 'em strength!

Cheers.

I had all the place-getters in my box first4(paid $3648.10 in NSW) but as I stood-out Court's In Session and Dance Hero, no return.....that's the way it goes. Court's In Session will be worth following so we will recoup our outlay.
Any keen form students have anything to say about the ride on Court's In Session in the last 100 metres?
I'll be studying this race with great interest into the wee small hours of Sunday morning.
Gaz, did you do OK?

Cheers.

Well, the "class" horses continue to perform at optimum level and there is no reason why they should not keep doing so into the future:
Sydney: 2 winners - Snitzel($2.1w$1.3pl), Lotteria($2.8w$1.6pl), Media, Prince Frederick and Danni Martine disappointed as did Court's In Session although I may say more about him later on. Dizelle($1.60pl) ran well and will pay to follow and what about Dance Hero.....?
Melb: 1 winner - Lad Of The Manor($8.6w$2.4pl) from two runners.
Overall, not too bad a day but it could have been better.......with a bit of luck!
There's always another day.
*all divs quoted are NSWTAB.

Cheers.

a brand new saturday
 

hey xanadu ,,any thoughts for the start of the spring lead up.any classy ones that you think might slip by the radar,look forward to your thoughts...
cheers..........gaz..............

g'day gaz,

in answer to your question, no, I don't have a "stable" which I select then follow religiously. I assess the form for every meeting each day and make my own determination if there is a "class" horse(s) which may have been overlooked by the general racing public and which may provide me with a "value" bet.
Today for example, I isolated two prospects:
SR2 1 Men At Work 2nd $1.50pl NSW
MR8 7 Party Pie, I am a bit concerned about the state of the track in Melb, so I will monitor if it is too "cut-up" by the time the last race is run.
One point though, I do not necessarily concentrate on metropolitan meetings as there are numerous runners at the provincials which "slide under the radar" during the week at these venues. We just have to remain alert and be patient for these opportunities to appear. Investing in the ratio of 1x5 allows me to win although my selection doesn't salute first.
Hope ya win a motza!

Cheers.

makybe diva....

Champion
 

Certainly, Makybe Diva is in the "champion" class and must be undeniably the best staying mare that we have seen. Considering that she won over the 1400m today first-up just makes her deeds the more meritorious.
Anyone agree/disagree?

Cheers.

Didn't see or hear the race unfortunately. Did she win easily?

And was Regal Roller disappointing, or was she just too good?

class is class
 

hey xanadu,,,,,i think your right on the money there about that girl,i thought that price was unders but i doubt we'll see that price again. great to see and good for the pools of the future spring races............
i was lucky enough to be at the cox plate the day bonecrusher busted our waverly star heart,it was one of the greatest sporting events i've seen,,,but i wish i could see this horse race..........
cheers...........gaz.........hey sportz at the 150 mark it was put down your glasses but he ran well..................

G'day,

"Class" horses running today are:
11:50a.mEST New Zealand R5 1 Distinctly Secret
12:25a.m.EST Balaklava R2 2 Redoubtable
4:25p.m.EST Wyong R7 3 Wild Queen
We'll see how they go.
Good luck

Hope you didn't back Distinctly Secret. It's been running around over there for ages!!!

First of all, you nutty Aussies, it's autumn coming not spring! What have you guys been doing, hibernating? LOL!

Hey Sportz, TOMMIFRANCS is in today. Ya gonna back her?

He'll be short price for sure. Likes the heavy going, but might not run down Ilbach on the lead and 3 for 3 on the hy. Tommi sure is consistent, but I'll have to see the price on him and how the track is playing. If speed is holding, I'll be on Ilbach.

You don't think he has one more good run in him? I think that he may be able score at least one more win at nice odds and I intend to be on him.
I went against my usual edict of not backing a 3kg apprentice on a topweight but this rider was a 4kg boy! I just thought that the horse's "class" would get him home. Did you see the race......the ride was a "barry crocker?"

Cheers.

G'day saratoga,

Well you've seen Alinghi and I am sure that you are impressed but have you read about and seen videos of our equine princess-Makybe Diva?
Do you think that she compares to some of your "champion" mares?
I am interested in your observations.

Cheers

Well Class definitely rules in the long-run,

I hope that "true believers" profited from the win of :
Zingam Kembla race6 WON $1.80 $1.30plNSW
sure, not a great price, but, it showed that following "class" horses which are expertly placed, the average punter has a reasonable chance of making a profit during the Spring carnival.
There will be numerous chances for the astute punter to profit from similar opportunities during the next few months.

Cheers,

saratoga, yoyama!..as Kramer would say.
Have you noticed that "class" horses continue to win at good odds....it's just a matter of being aware when they are due to win.
Remain vigilant and you will definitely select profitable opportunities.

Yoyama!

Carry On cutie
 

Well the big day has now arrived and there are many, many class horses competing. The only trouble is that there are several prospects in each race competing against each other but then, good odds should be assured so there are prospects for a profitable day.
Is the "Carry On Cutie" fan club "cashed up" today? She certainly appears to have very good prospects even allowing for the awkward barrier- I like her as long as she lives up to her potential. Do fans of hers think she has "come up" this preparation or is she about to make amends for her indifferent form so far this preparation? I'd like to get your opinion.
We'll find out later today.

Cheers.

Distinctly Secret
 

Sportz,
You doubted the class of this old marvel!
Since we last spoke this 7YO has finished 3rd on 14.9.05 and today ran second to the potentially great horse, Xcellent, paying $7.70plNSW. As I said in my post at the time he has/had at least one more great run in him. His only problem was to run into a horse which is potentially verging on greatness!
I said that I would be on him and I was! He didn't win but the place dividend he paid sure repaid the faith I had in him. Did you notice the change of jockey in the last two runs? He is just about old enough to vote now so we will have to see what connections have in store for him considering that he is a gelding.
As I keep emphasising, class horses will continue to overcome any obstacle put in their way even when facts and figures suggest they have little or no chance.

Cheers.