Were doing well here Feather.

Wednesday:
Just had a quick look at today's fields for this system at 2pm.

I see a qualifier at Adl. R9/4 Angelina Ballerina $4.60 pp. on the site I recommended at beginning of thread for PP prices. Very good Jock on-board.

Rats. Came 2nd.

crash, i had another one today ar7-3 grey knight, opening price was $4.20, came third, paying $2.00, while i normally do not place bet, i did so on these two today. so i'm happy, was grey knight a selection or did I make a mistake somewhere? thanks

Feather,

No, I just missed seeing R7/3. Both winners of R7 and R9 were smokies.
I've looked through my records for this system and a place or e/w system would work [going on system's past performance only]. I'm a masochist though and will stick to win :-)
I'm not sure how you came up with Sullivan's Creek at W/F, as it was $8 pp not the max $7. Did you use newspaper odds?

Make sure any selections pass the no more than 21 days since last start rule, it's easy to forget to check and it's a very important rule. I originally used 16 days, but it cut out too many runners [higher % of winners though]. The goal of the rule is to assure as much as possible, that runners pulled up soundly after their last run and haven't any niggling problems we don't know about.

Forget WA with this system. It's hopeless. Their class system is not part of the real world and the lower classes kill the system. The Westies probably understand it though :-)

Thanks for that Crash,
Sullivans creek was paying $8.00 in the newspaper, but looking on the ias site it opening price was $6.00,
I didn't realize there would be so many different pricesl

Pre-Post prices are the ones you want. Too many runners shorten for SP to be any guide. There are differing SP prices around, but if you use the same source all the time [whatever it is], It should all come out in the wash as a similar result over time.

For this thread I'm just using the WA PP odds on Sat. [mainly, but if the odds are there on the site I'll throw in Wed.]. I've found Sund, and Mon.[ along with WA] very poor days for this system, especially Sund. All 3 should be avoided.

Crash and Feathers, good morning. This is a continuing problem with ANY system containing PP prices, ratings, tipster polls and the like (ie Unitab Picks and late mail) in their rules. But especially for systems trying to select "firmers" These assessments often differ from one another and are not CONSISTENT within themselves. The person assessing the PP odds may vary from week to week, even if it's in the same paper or on the same web-site. They may be in a hurry and not give their full attention or else HAND THE JOB TO THE OFFICE BOY. Thus, the punter is forced to depend on an inconsistent source, wondering why he's winning one week and not the next..
For example, that longish-priced one that Crash and w924 (their systems!) agreed on last Saturday, Foxy Tyra, may have fitted both using the Sydney papers and TAB but not the Qld etc etc (it didn't). Using anything like polls, expected odds and what-have-you puts you or me in the position of being "told" (one way or the other) how to direct our money by a multitude of (often) disagreeing "experts", who may NOT be experts. Likewise opening TAB odds: which TAB is the "best" guide? Is the "big money" using Unitab one day and Supertab the next??
This won't be a problem, while you're generally winning BUT as soon as the losers start appearing and you notice that some other ratings or odds-framer or TAB would've been "right" then the temptation to switch (or use them all) will grow. Soon enough the temptation to jiggle it a bit further will appear, (what about accepting 60% PP odds??) and so on. This is why there is a "system" for every factor known, both good and bad. The only consistent winning methods are those which have "fundamental" priciples underlying them, and which can be utilized without taking "the word" or "stated opinions" of others into account. My advice: avoid anything to do with PP odds, except (maybe) when looking for overs not UNDERS.. Cheers.

Punter57, I have always been wary of any method that relies solely on the PP from any particular sourse, and suggest that a way of minimising the risk of the "office boy" is to use the selection when your choice of 3 or 4 different sources have the same clear pick as fav. eg. Radio, Tab-form and say SMH, (don't know where they get their prices just picked those 3 at random).

Consensus picks are different I reckon that's dangerous ground.
Another one that doesn't make sense to me is when a method indicates certain days of the week, as, if it's a mechanical phenomenom, how can it work on Tuesday but not Thursday?? just food for thought.

Well said P57 and Partypooper... Although I just skimmed your posts, I think they contain my thoughts exactly.

PrePost odds in the newspaper are just how 1 person has rated the fields...
The Late Mail, is just somebodies tips.

Information is power in this game, and if you rely purely on one source for punting then you might as well just cut a hole in the bottom of your wallet now.
And yes, if this one person that you are relying on their ratings, is only good at rating on certain days then please find another hobby.

There is another thread about suicide and the martingale system at the moment. I would suggest that this would be step 2.....

Hi Punter 57, yes I largely agree withg you re pre post odds in newspapers. Alternatively, using the win pool of the tab of the home state at the 10k win pool mark makes much more sense to me. It is the actual price on offer, not something picked out of the sky by a person (s) or computer ratings. True, I used to use the Australian newspaper pre post prices back in the pre internet days..and they were ok because there wasnt anything better. Today it is a far different story.

Yesterday, using the QLd tab top three rated horses and the Syd tab win pool, there was just the one selection, using my Saturday plans, at Canterbury in an open company race for 4yr plus....See Me Smile...opened at around $10.00 and won at about same price, although better fixed odds were available.

At the risk of being judged a smartarse here, I'm going to use this selection to illustrate some points:

1. it won paying more than $9 (not $7 or less)

2. It was a last start winner..a factor which some people here think means no particular advantage...

3. it was a $10 last start winner, decrying the myth that last start winners go out too short....

Surely, this illustrates, rather well, that there is still good value to be had out there..esp when one also considers this:
The horse was not only in the top three rated selections as on QLD Tab., it was also in the top three or 4 Ian Craig selections..hardly a longshot chance one would think....


See me Smile (tab#5) jumped from 3 barrier, (nothing wrong with barrier draw either) hit the front and led all the way ...nice ride by J Ford... it was running around at a price that owners, trainers and bookmakers can all benefit from...but not the fave punter who has done his nuts yet again...

Did I back See me Smile? not that it really matters...but yes I did..x2 ...because it was a QLSW..and the race was of reasonable quality for a non saturday event. I also backed Texarcana, even though it was not really a qualifier..being in a restricted 3yr event of dubious betting quality..but at 26.00 I thought it worth a tickle... It certainly wasnt the worst runner and gave me a run for my money.....Midweek is play time for me anyway...Saturdays are my bread and butter..

I just dont buy the idea that value has gone out of punting..or that I will go broke backing longer priced horses...it simply makes no sense to me.. .I believe I will go broke backing faves and the real shorties tho.....it takes too much to turn the losses around whereas a good value horse quickly puts one back on top in one fell swoop...Whilever punters try and follow "smart money" (a likely oxymoron if ever there was one), late mail and media tips, I have a very reasonable chance of turning a profit. I amnot suggesting that anyone punt like me...it takes discipline to ride the outs and belive me, there are big outs.but I dont bet day to day, week to week, or month to month...and most bookies are the same...they dontb try to get out on the last race...there is no last race...until we stop punting.

The price on offer? No, it is the approximate dividend.
While this is a better idea than prepost markets, I still wouldn't rely on it... The people that are serious about backing horses will not bet on the tote. They will bet fixed odds. Watch the fixed odds, and you know where the tote is heading.
A lot of the later money on the tote is from the bookies anyway.

The 10k mark is not really relevant when the total pool reaches 500k. Perhaps a better idea would be 1 minute before jump time, when half the pools have been filled....

I would like to reply but think I would sound to pathetic. But have taken note of whats been said.
Crash, still taking an interest in this "no brainer system" thanks. Look forward to saturday

I'm thinking along the same lines Feather. Of course I don't see any systems posted in other threads to back the "wisdom" used to prove the point[s] of where I'm going wrong.

I am [hardly, especially when it comes to systems] not the one here making claims of superior methodology knowledge. There is nothing here for me to prove :-)

Could the knockers of Pre Post Prices provide an explanation as to why these odds deliver the same % of 1st favs,2nd favs etc year after year?

I'd like to meet this office boy to shake his hand,every single week he narrows the field down to 7 or 8 chances for me while i am still in bed,the fact that he can come up with the winner over 90% of the time is absolutely amazing.

Before you step up to knock the office boy and his pre post odds ask yourself if you could even get close to his over 90% of winners from 7 or 8 selctions,bet you cant.

I also have to laugh at people who knock pre post odds but spend hours and hours doing their own ratings and converting them to odds and in the end dont have a product all that much better than pre post odds.

Heres an idea why not save some time use the pre post odds as a starting point and fine tune them to produce a decent betting line.

Hi BJ,
"The price on offer? No, it is the approximate dividend".

Yes BJ, you are correct..poor choice of words on my part....it is the actual dividend on offer at that time, if the pool was closed at that point. What it does do, over and above the pp odds in the newspaper, is display what real money has gone on to the horses thus far...its a good base to work from ...not perfect but it's a baseline...

"The people that are serious about backing horses will not bet on the tote. They will bet fixed odds. Watch the fixed odds, and you know where the tote is heading.
A lot of the later money on the tote is from the bookies anyway. "

Sorry, BJ have to disagree with you there. Serious punters do bet on the tote...trust me..esp on the longer priced horses..they usually get better value there. Big bets get spread over totses and boopkmakers to spraed the risk and hold up prices..its a fact of life. I dont know how anyone could prove otherwise...
Re bookmakers..they are also serious punters aren't they? I'll concede that some credit bettors sometimes use bookies exclusively..esp when they are experiencing a cash crisis...but make no mistake..the tote is certainly used by professionals...

The 10k mark is not really relevant when the total pool reaches 500k.
I'll agree, but we dont often have 500k win pools on the tote either. 10k is a just starting point..decreed to be more reliable than say a 3k winpool, or the newspaper pp...and used so that I can come up with my selections well ahead of race time....This is a very important factor...Many successful serious punters are successful because they go to the track, knowing exactly which horses they are going to back, before they get through the turnstiles. They dont wait until 1 minute prior to decide what they are going to back..

Perhaps a better idea would be 1 minute before jump time, when half the pools have been filled.

I agree that this could better suit some off course punters etc...esp those following the money, or betting the tris quinellas etc..and I knew pros who did this on course..jamming up tote windows to take their last minute tris etc based upon shortners in the ring......It can also place incredible pressure on a punter with time running out..judgement can get thrown so easily, and mistakes made...That 1 minute prior is the most turbulent for tote prices...the tote pools take time to adjust to the money pouring in..often the jump price is way different to the price 1 minute before the jump..and as you mention, that is time when bookies are also laying off...

Orchestrating a sizeable bet on a longshot is something to treasure.. I have lived a very full life, but nothing comes close to the feeling one gets when successfully backing a "longshot" for a substantial return. It is an experience that only those who have actually done it, will know exactly what I am writing about.

It goes something like this...you go to the track knowing which horse you are going to back..Despite whatever happens in the ring, nothing is going to sway your judgement. You are going to back this horse for x amount of dollars. You "have to bet it 5 times becasue thats how it came up in your plans..The only thing that will stop the bet from happening is if it is a late scratching, or poor value..ie opening or avail odds below what your methods tell you are required. An incredibly long price on offer is not going to make you unduly worry, switch horses, or reduce your outlay., it just means that you have to be discrete when backing it, if you want maximum returns...

You begin, placing bets around the ring, in such a way as to not draw attention, and plummet the price too dramtically. You may either do this alone or with friends to help you. You have already visited the tote window and you revisit the tote to place a bet that will not dent the win dividend too much too quickly. The minutes tick by...You have placed all your money and have time to kill before the jump. You cant believe that the tote price has held up so well and is still offering incredible value. You note the funds pouring in and the odds tumbling on the fave in the ring....not phased by this, you are instead quite excited, and decide to plonk on some more...afterall, your selection is the bargain of the year as far as you are concerned...

Hi Dale,

"I also have to laugh at people who knock pre post odds but spend hours and hours doing their own ratings and converting them to odds and in the end dont have a product all that much better than pre post odds."

I'm lost for words lol

Well he must be doing something wrong if he is rating the field yet only winning 90% of races...

What???????????????????