Giants should beat NO pretty easily and I think washington are struggling way ot much on offense so take the cowboys there.

That's okay. :)

Not sure how it will go on NFL. Even though the home-dog system is a very basic plan, I still like to know a fair bit about the teams to decide how I'm going to bet. And I'm the first to admit my knowledge of NFL is nowhere near as good as AFL, NRL, S12 etc.

Thanks Sportz,
The best systems are the simplest. I will use it wisely!
Just looking at some simple stats, teams travelling often struggle. Therefore unless a complete mis-match (top vs bottom or team in red hot form) i reckon the home-dog system must be as good as any other. Only exception this weekend were the Steelers who are looking a very good side this year and at the moment are playing like it.

Hi Andrew,
Not too sure about Saints - Giants.
Might have a little dabble on the Giants purely because they are playing at home.

The home dog system is as strong as any, but like Sportz said, only after looking at form. The Home Dog on Monday NIght Football is one of the strongest trends in the NFL (at least it used to be, now everyone is on it and that is probably reflected in the value). Washington on the road for me tonight. Another "trend" I like to play against is when teams honor a former star player or coach at halftime (like tonight for Cowboys-Troy Aikman and Tony Dorsett). You would think it would be just the opposite, but it's not.

Saratoga,

What do you think of the varying displays of the top ranked teams at the weekend, the Patriots, Carolina, Steelers, Colts etc.

Problem with form based systems this early in the season is that their is very little to go on. Therefore sticking with the home teams in a selective manner is as good as any method i know.

Watching Washington and Cowboys at moment.

Unless Washington can provide some protection for their QB they gonna be in big trouble this year.

The honouring of stars is a strange one. I suppose it can sometimes distract the players, however in tonights game doesn't look to be a problem so far, the Cowboys looking to good for Washington.

Good calls Andrew and Saratoga.

Boy that was a close one, didn't see Washington winning in 1st half.

Phew, If I ever say that I'm unlucky remind me of that Monday game. I was on the Redskins with 6 start and I agree with you Mad it was looking hopeless. Washington played 58 offensive plays of nothing and 2 good ones. Miracles happen. The Dallas supporters giving 5.5 can certainly call it a very bad beat.

Good picking MAD. I'll look up last year and see how home dogs prevailed.

That is an interestng theory SS. Not much good to us as there is very little info for us to go on. Keep us informed please.

Went 2-2 on my picks here and now 3-3. The service went 5-4 so a small miraculous profit for the weekend. Was down 1-4 after losing on Miami, Detroit, Atlanta and Atlanta/Sea overs and winning on Carolina. Came back from the dead when GB and Clev had their last minute shootout to get the over, and had NY Giants and the under and the Washington miracle. Very fortunate.

Notes on games excluding today.

Carolina -NE. New england had only 39 yards rushing and now only 112 in 2 games. They will be in trouble without the running game.

Detroit - Chicago 5 turnovers and lots of panic for Detroit. Chicago numbers not as impressive as the score. Don't get carried away with the Bears form.

Minnesota - Cinci. Min had 7 turnovers (t/o). Now 12 for year. Mike Tice to be first coach fired is my pick. Cinci had 504 yards total offense. Averaging 6.3 yards per play in first 2 games which is fantastic for any team but amazing for the Bungles.

Houston - Pitt. Pittsburgh sacked the Houston qb 8 times. Now the Houston QB has been sacked 13 times. No front line protection is looking bad for them. Next week we can judge how good the Steelers are as they are up against NE

Balt - Tenn Baltimore only had 14 yds rushing.

SF - Phil. SF looks very bad as they have only rushed for 92 yards in 2 games and allowed an average of 380 passing. The Eagles have only allowed an average of 101 passing in their 2.

Jax - Indy Indy sacked Jacksonville qb 6 times. The Jax and the under may be the way to go this year. I think they are a good team but remember they were a very lucky side last year.

Buffalo - TB . The bucs look pretty good defensivly in allowing my Bills only 47 yards rushing and 73 yards total in 2 games.

Stl - Ari - Both teams looked bad on T.V. STL qb now sacked 12 times in 2 games. They must shore that up to complete to the star receivers. Arizona has no good plays in red zone and Kurt can't scramble any more.

ATL - SEA Michael Vick isn't living up to his billing completing an average of 11.5 passes for 113 yards. Running the qb all year only leads to an injury. Seattle putting up big offensive numbers so far.

KC - Oak . KC is way under the totals and seem to like running a lot. If the totals stay high they may be a good bet on the under for another game or two.

Clev - GB Brett is making too many errors and GB are going nowhere. Time to change qb's but they won't. Bet against GB if giving anybody more than 3. Clevland has a very bad pass defensive giving up 608 yards in first 2 games.

Good punting and hope we are all this lucky every week.

Mad, I gotta agree about the early season form being hard to figure, but that's when you can jump on some value if you form the right opinions about teams. It's more a "trust your gut" thing than anything, but if you are right, you can ride out some nice wins.

The "honoring stars... system" is tough to follow as it is usually not announced nationally what the team's intentions are, but it usually plays out for the visitor. If you can get on-line to a team's website and do some research, maybe you can find out what they are doing. Sometimes it is very applicable and sometimes not. it is very much an intangible but the closer the relation of the honoree to the players on the field, the better for the other team. the home team is distracted and can start to "put things in perspective" if the ceremony regards a sick or deceased player or other such bad things. I don't have any stats on this, but I've read about this system in a lot of publications. I have a book describing it. I'll try to dig it up.

Karla, good job on all those observations. it really sums up alot of teams in a nutshell.

Washington is lucky, eh!!!!!! Mad, NE is showing they are human, Pitt + Carolina are looking good. Philly looks really tough. SF is brutal and could be a constant play against, but I can't give that many poinits. Oak may be in good form now, so keep an eye out. I would definitely play against NE for the next few road games, as they are in tough

Agree Saratoga - particularly with the Raiders assessment. I watched that game and thought it pretty even steven, the raiders will need some time to gel and the chiefs are playing good football. However in saying that Randy Moss ran all night and the QB failed to see him, couple that with the other wide receiver Porter and their running back (forget name) and i think they will go well enough this season. Needs time.

As for the redskins they were woeful in the first half - how many times their QB get sacked?

Just throwing my eye over this weekends games and i spy the Titans vs Rams. Titans with the points +6.5 for me or am i missing something? Don't see a big difference between these two considering the Titans are on the road.
Would love to get +7.5 so i'll keep an eye out for any line movements but it may be wishful thinking.

Also throw in the Bengals to cover -3 on the road at Chicago. Bengals in red hot form, Chicago only so-so.

New Orleans over Minnesota, Saints had their chances last wekend against the Giants but failed to capitalise. Expect them to be to good for the Vikings. Will take +4.5 points just in case

Thinking the Eagles at home, not happy with -7.5 points though as Oakland aren't that bad a team and could make a game of it. Any thoughts??


Last but by no way least, after all my talk i am going with the Steelers to win at home and cover the spread -3. Hope i am right and the Steelers get up.

Good luck to all

Hi Mad

I won't be betting it, but I think Philly will cream Oakland because Oaklands weakest part is their pass defense which Manning should pick apart. 8 points is a lot on the road which means I will give it a miss.

My picks for week3 (3-3 so far)

Chicago +3 bt Cinci -3
Chicago has a good defense and their loss to Wash wasn't as bad as first thought. Cinci has been blessed with 2 weak passing defenses and 9 turnovers. Maybe I am old fashioned but early season predictions favouring Cinci generally fade and I think Chicago will slow them down. Bears at home receiving points looks good.

New Orleans +3.5 bt Minnesota -3.5
Info out of Minnesota is all bad with more offensive injuries. The Saints were put into a bad "head space" with USA media attention and gave up 5 t/o's in their loss to NY Giants. Based on a win over Carolina, who looked good last week and good offensive numbers, against a team that can't run and can't defend and whose best receiver is out and receiving points looks good.

Carolina -3 bt Miami
Carolina just beat the superbowl winners and are labelled as contenders against a Miami team that was picked for the wooden spoon. Carolina will show their class and just cover against a Miami team that may be over achieving.

KC +3 bt Denver
On the figures the KC offense is playing well while the Denver defense hasn't. The KC defense is only average but much better than last year. I really like the way the Chiefs have been rushing which will lay the foundation for their passing game and keep Denvers good offense of the field. Denver was lucky to steal a win last week and KC are outscoring their opposition 50-24. KC doesn't have a good record in Denver but I think they have the better team this year. A 2-0 team getting points is good.

Great analysis, Karla. If only some of our sports handicappers could be as logical as you, I would listen more! LOL! I agree that the Philly line is high, but I can't be overly confident in Oakland, although that would be my small lean.

Here are my EARLY picks: Best Bets (Pitt, SF, Und Philly)

Pitt -3 (I've got to keep playing against NE on this early harsh schedule)

SF +6 1/2 (I'd love to get 7 or more here, but I think SF will hang in there after last week's debacle)

Cinn -3 (I've just got a feeling the public is going to jump on the Bears and I love to play contrarian)

GB +3 1/2 (This once proud organization still has some fight left, especially at home as a dog)

Under 46 Phl/Oak (like to see a chess match type game here, as the two teams are unfamiliar with each other)

Under 47 Ind/Cle (Tough to play the under with Indy, but I like this side small)

Hey Mad, You're gettng your wish as St. L is now up to 7 but I'm sure you've already made your play. That time diff is a pain. I just read an analysis on the game and St. L is playing on Artificial turf for the first time this season. Tenn is 2-10 ATS on art Turf and off the grudge match w/ Balt. St L is tough at home, but I agree with you're take on the spread looking high. I'm staying away from this one. Good luck.

Karla, the Alamo Dome ini San Antonio has Artificial turf and the LSU Tiger stadium in Baton Rouge is natural grass. I am 99% sure of these but I haven't
verified it. The Philly line is up to 9 right now.

Sticking with my earlier plays, but a little scared of the Pitt play.

SF +6- ***
Und 46 Phl/Oak ***
Pitt -3 **
Und 47 Ind/Cle **
GB +3- **
Cinn -3 *1/2


Good Luck everyone in Week 3.

Thanks for that info SS.


My beer is filled with tears. Very very bad day. Just shows that 2 weeks of stats leads to mis judgements. Interceptions Carolina 2 minutes to go and Chicago 5 and New Orleans 2 plus the opening fumble and 2 weeks winnings is now else where.

Desperate now for KC to win a low scoring contest tomorrow.

Good weekend of footy there Ladies and Gents, some nice calls there Saratoga.

What happened to my Steelers? Flippin' Brady and field goals will be the death of me! Didn't see the game unfortunately but Roethlisberger's stats 12/28 216 don't look all that flash. Although the underdog always seems to ruin the winning runs of the opposing team in this series, coupled with the fact the Pats would want to bounce back after last week - Always easy to pick them afterwards though.

Vikings???????? Three touchdowns from Culpepper and some rookie?????? Didn't see that one coming, although Saints third week on the road. I think i read too much into last weeks game against the Giants. Brooks 12/32 didn't help i suppose.

Oakland were unlucky, i think they are a better team than 0-3. Probably just the sort of game they needed to help them gel, expect some wins from this team soon.

Bengals in good form, thanks Karla for your accurate description of Bears performance to date. Spot on the money, Bengals 3-0 set themselves up very nicely for the season now.

Just finished watching Giants vs Chargers. Giants woeful defence, absolutely no answer for LT. Impressed with Manning, the boy can play however not sure if his receivers make him look good or the other way round. With little running game i think they will be a risky proposition to back this year particularly against good passing defences. As for Chargers just saw their schedule for next month or so, thought New England had a tough schedule, have a look at what the Chargers have got. They really needed to be 3-0 at this stage or at least 2-1, think it will be tough for them now but stranger things have happened so i guess we'll have to wait and see. Wonder how they would go if you could shut down LT.

All in all an average week for me. Decided to go with some road teams with points this time, shoulda stuck with the tried and true Home-Dogs with Miami, Packers and 9'ers all getting up with the points. Some close ones but thems the breaks. Bring on next week.

Struggling at the moment with the last game of the round.

Denver shut down San Diego's running game last week, albeit mostly LT. I didn't see the game so i am just going on stats there. Denver don't seem to have much of a running game, at least not one that will be dominant. That leaves a scenario whereby the Chiefs are the more balanced side rushing and passing but are very susceptible to a passing game as witnessed against Oakland. Oakland kept ignoring an open Moss all night! So the question is, How good is the Denver passing game? Good enough at home i wonder. Any suggestions?

Me thinks No is the answer. Oakland are a good side, better than the Broncos. Either way i don't see the Broncos dominating, so therefore a close game is likely given that the Broncos are playing at home - worst case. So given that the Chiefs are the more balanced, if not better team, taking the Chiefs with the points is the way to go.

Ok, I'm with you Karla - best of luck to us.

That was a good call.

Thanks Mad. I've gotten some good luck as of late. It's about time! LOL! Rothes.... did have a terrible game, but they just barely lost, so be positive. I think NE is a little weaker than last year and Pitt is on the upswing. That game did scare me when I really started to think hard about it, but I still thought that the Steelers were the side. My 49'ers are suddenly 2-1 against the spread and play St. Louis agaain this weekend at Mexico City. I'll have to see if it's a natural grass surface. I love the Niner's if it is. Week 4 lies ahead.

Hey Toga,

Funny old weekend for me, some good picks and some silly ones. Hey but that's the cookie crumblin and all that. Was a great weekend footy wise, woulda' loved to see the Steelers vs Pats game but of course we didn't get it over here. Bengals are going well, Chargers snapped out of their slump, home dogs continuing on a roll and the season has just begun.

Today I noticed the early lines for next week and there are some interesting selections to be made. Oakland -3 at home vs Dallas, Atlanta -5.5 vs Minnesota and the Chargers +5 vs the Pats. Of course if ever the Bengals were going to thump someone at home it would be this week against Houston. Titans at home +6.5 vs the Colts has also grabbed my attention. Colts defence is flying but the offence is only firing on three cylinders. Risky, you never know if they will fire up but i might look into this one a bit more.

Before i go i must mention SBR, American based Mr mgmt so take it easy Moderator, but they have a new forum full of NFL discussion etc and a competion running at the moment called, wait for it:
Beat the P-r-i-c-k, without the hyphens of course, for NFL tipping. Worth a look.

Well guys, I vote myself "****er" of the week after going 0-4 with my picks. Some very strange turn arounds, especially on defense. What really got me in the 3 TV games was that my bets KC, NO and NYG all looked like they showed up for a practice. The other sides were fired up and ready to play. In all 3 I was gone in the first 5 minutes. Very depressing weekend but as MAD has said, "bring on next week".

Quick notes - the Jets have lost their qb and Vinny is back. bye bye Jets. Fox TV games are a double header STL-NYG and Dallas-Oak. Home field advantage is sure looking big this year. The teams that outrushed the other won 11 of the 14 games. Pit-Ne were tied at 79 each. SF lost and Cinci won with the 5 interceptions.

Notes from games
Oak-phil - Oakland ran 22 times for +21 yards. Looks like its live or die with the pass for them. Phil won dispite losing two turnovers. Philly run defense looks good giving only 80 yds in last 2 games.

Tenn - Stl - even stats

Cinci - Chi - 5 interceptions for Cinci. Now have +14 t/o rate and 18 in 3 games. Can they win without that? Chicago defense still putting up a good performance.

NO-Min - 4 t/o against the Saints. Minnesota allowed 7 sacks . Hard to rate NO because of all the emotional stuff. The Vikings sure were fired up but still a mediocre lot.

Car-Mia - Carolina had a chance to tie it but got intercepted in the last minute. Carolina only had 61 yds rushing. Miami had +2 t/o. Miami now 43-8 at home in August/sept. Looks like their offensive strength is rushing and their overall strength is defense.

Jax-NYJ -Ny Jets lost their qb and only had 168 yds total offense. Jax and Cinci only teams at 3-0 on spread.

Cle- Indy - Indy defense won again and had 4 more sacks.Indy offense put up their best numbers of the year but against a very bad Clevland defense. Indy hasn't allowed a sack this year so it's a mystery to me why they can't score.

TB-GB Gb played better but gave TB 3 interceptions. Missed conversion was the difference. TB had 156 yds rushing. My figures have the Bucs as #1 defensive team

Sea-ARi. Arizona still can't convert their chances into TD's. 12 points all on field goals. Seattle put up big offensive numbers again. 163 yds rushing. 2 t/o also helped

NE-Pitt. The numbers seem to indicate that the Pat's outplayed Pitt by much more than the score 425 yds to 269 total offense. Pitt got 2 more t/o's and very strange for them to lose with a + t/o. NE had 346 yds passing but still not rushing real well.

Dall - SF The stats look as even as the scoreline

Atl-Buff Very strange game according to the stats. Must have been brutal in the trenches. ATlanta rushed for 236 and passed for 167 while the Bills rushed for 172 and wait for it - passed for 36. Atlanta also had 4 sacks. Not very often that you get rushing at twice the rate of passing. Wasn't snowing was it?

NYG - SD. I watched this game. Going into it the Giants had just about the best rush defense. The Chargers just charged right through them for 268 yards. Tomlinson was unstoppable. The Giants passe for 338 yds which made the stats look close butttt.

KC-Denv Same story here as the NYG-SD game. Denver just ran straight through the Chiefs line for 221 yds

Thanks for the synopsis Karla, i'd be lost without it. Don't get enough games on TV, might look into getting one of those massive satellite dishes that picks up every station known to mankind.

Anyway, was looking at betting markets and see Jacksonville opened at -3, quickly out to -4. Must have been some big money coming in at -3. Must admit at -4 still looks and attrctive proposition at home vs the Broncos. Might be another one worthy of some investigation. Also Seattle +2 on the road to Washington is intiguing, however i have no basis for saying that other than i don't rate Washington very highly.

How did i miss this one...LOL.

Eagles +2 on the road to Chiefs. Opened at +3, some money came for it i assume after the abismal performance of KC last week.

Hi Mad

The line on Philly maybe because McNab (QB) was listed as doubtful. I heard now (11 am Sydney) that he is now probable. The line has come into 1.5 at most places.

Stan James has it at 2.5 ($1.91). Stan James seems to be going their own way on NFL this year. They are offering $1.91 but as opposed to most bookies instead of moving the price (ie 1.92 to 1.87) they are moving the line. Not sure if they actually know how imprtant the difference is between 2.5 and 3 etc.

Better for us. Right now they have 9 of their lines .5 point different then everyone else. Anyway could be worth keeping an eye on them.

Hi - guys

I'll go slow this weekend as I do like a lot of the away dogs but they aren't winning. Just 2 picks and need to improve my 3-7 record.

Green Bay +8 bt Carolina.
The struggling Packers don't lose 4 in a row often. They played well against TB and went within a whisker of a tie. Carolina haven't exactly been world beaters either at 1-2. The Packers have a -5 t/o ratio which has been their main problem. THe defenses are better than the offenses for both teams. I expect a close defensive game with Carolina not risking too much and that should give the "pack" a chance to cover the 8 points.

Arizona - San Francisco over 43.
The NFL is on show in Mexico and both these teams are very poor defensively especially against the pass. SF scored over 28 in two of their games and have a good passing stats. THe 49ers have averaged 38 points against Arizona on the road in their last 3 starts. Arizona have allowed an average of 40 points in their 2 road games. I expect Arizona to get the ball to their speedster Johnson and to have worked on their red zone offense. Hopefully both teams will want to put on a spectacular passing show for the Mexicans and go over the total.

Haven't had any time to study the NFL this week, what with all the horse racing going on in every continent imaginable. But I've been lucky this weekend so far so hopefully it carries over into football. Karla, great theory about the Mexico Bowl! Only makes sense that they will let loose.


Week 3
Detroit +6-(7?) ***
St L +3 ***
Minn +6 **
SD +5- **

Hey guys and gals,

Here is a little play i picked up from someone else.
Jets +7 $3.76
Vikings +6 $3.40

Only need one to get up = $$$$$$

Other plays i am considering,
Giants
Eagles
Seahawks
Raiders
Jags

Homedog = Titans

Hopefully a better weekend than last.

Well there you go, the folly of listening to tips from others displayed there.

Homedog system let me down, well i suppose it served me well the last couple of weeks so it was due a down week. Was always a risk against the Colts but thought +7 points at home might be good enough against an offence not firing on all cylinders. Colts would have to be worthy Superbowl favourites.

Jags very disappointing but i think the Broncos are a good team and are playing well so i suppose there is no shame in that. Other selections were OK, Seahawks went close and a couple of winners as well. Another so-so week for me.

Some nice calls Toga and Karla, especially Lions and Chargers. See ya all again next week - some interesting games i spy at this early stage.

Hi mad

Another interesting weekend of NFL. I need Green Bay to cover to get a split for the weekend as again my service went for away dogs and STL and MIN bit the dust although I did have San Diego. Nothing like waking up at 3.30 am to see your bet down 14 0. If I could survive the first 2 minutes of some of these games I would be ok. Anyway go the Pack.

Still early days but the San Diego running game must impress as they ran straight through defensive lines again this week, with New England being the victim. Running a line through their matches I think Denver and the NY Giants must also be good teams.

Week 4 stats wrap

Buffalo - NO - difficult to judge where the Saints are at, but they looked happier this week against a very bad Buffalo team. Buffalo have no offense especially passing (67 yds). They replaced their qb to try and get something going to no avail. NO won with good ball control and the help of 2 t/o's. NO pass defense looked good.

Detroit - TB Despite the closeness of the score, the Bucs continue to impress. Detroit closed down the running game but TB took to the air with success. What kept the Lions in the game was the 4-1 t/o's. It takes a good team to overcome 3 interceptions. The Lions played well defensively but were ordinary on offense. The Bucs defense won the game.

Sea - Wash - stats were as even as the o/t scoreline. This was the Redskins worse defensive game which I think just shows how good the Seattle offense is. Seattle passed well and have only 1 t/o in the last 3 games.

STL - NYG. I think the Giants are a good team and the loss to SD last week shows how good SD is. STL had 5 t/o, no rushing (42 yds) and put up big passing numbers (434 yds) in desperation mode. NY rushed for 164 yards.

Hou-Cinci The Bengals came down to earth getting only1 turnover. Then won against a very poor Houston team and continued to look good on offense. Houston's offensive line aren't geting the job done allowing 7 sacks and only getting 128 yds through the air.

SD-NE Vey impressive offensive figures for the Chargers including 183 yds rushing against a pretty good NE defense. NE have lots of injuries and losing 2 to's to none didn't help. NE are losing the t/o battle each week and still haven't rushed for more than 80 yds in any game this year.

Denver-Jax . Denver 188 yds rushing - Jax 12 yds rushing plus 4 t/o's favouring Denver sums it up. Denver had the ball for most of the game.

Indy-tenn - stats pretty close despite the score (31-10) Indy has 4 wins but only ordinary stats on both sides of the ball. They are winning on mistake free football (0 sacks and only 2 T/o's this year) and a great red zone defense. The Titans have a very inexperienced team whose numbers aren't that bad. As the season progress, they will improve and can't be taken for granted.

NYJ -Balt The Jets have no qb and no offense. 7 first downs and 28 yds rushing. Baltimore were lucky they caught NY in this mode. Baltimore won with +2 to's but showed little on offense. Not impresive at all.

MIN-ATL. Atlanta rushed for 285 yds and sacked Minnesota 9 times. Atlanta has passing problems with Vick being hurt again. The Vikings are very bad and I think their win last week against New Orleans was an anomaly. They can't run and can't defend the rush. Culpepper has been sacked 16 times in 2 games. No line = no wins.

Dallas - Oakland. Even stats with the opening 85 yd pass to Moss being the difference. Dallas have now got 5 of 7 games at home and in a tough division could surprise a few teams.

Phil-KC KC shut down the Eagles rushing game (28 yds)and Mcnabb and Owens went to the air to win in a big comeback. Phil passing stats are very impressive. KC continues to run wll (144 yds). Their run defense returned to normal which indicates how good Denver's rushing is. lost the t/o battle 2-4 in a game they should have won.

Ari-SF How bad is SF. Given a 14-0 lead on 2 fumbles they then proceeded to waste 55 minutes in a very poor effort. While their defense tried hard, they got worn down as they had a minus 33 field possession which is a very big difference. Arizona won but still can't score td's. The 49ers made them look good although they passed very well (368 yds). However against a good offense team, their defense won't hold up.

Can not believe this crap. For about the 8th game in a row, an opening fumble leads to a TD and I'm f**ked again.

Yep, i know the feeling. I had Green Bay plus the points to win. Thought the same as you after the first half, third quarter even - wasn't much better. Great comeback though.

Hey Karla ANd MAd, Hope all is well leading into Week 5. Karla, grreat call on the SF over and the 49'ers are terrible. ( I hate to see my once proud team reduced to the team I was used to seeing as a kid in the 70's) talk about cycles!

Thanks for the PATS on the back Mad, but the one theory I am proudest of this year is the scheduling snafu with NE. In combination with injuries and loss of assistant coaches, the lines scream to play against NE right now. Things may change in mid november on, but I'm continuing to play against them right now and i will start to play against NO as well. THe Saints can't continue to function normally with all the distractions they are facing. It will catch up. The Eagles were pretty gustsy in their comeback at KC and this shows how bad they may really want this season. We'll see. Oakland seems to be back to a competitive level, at least where the line is concerned.

Hey Toga and Karla,

Geez, some tough games this week - to pick that is. All these lines hovering around the 3 point mark. One minute i'm leaning this way the other i've convinced myself to go the other. It is in situations like these that i find that it is better to keep my money in my pocket... LOL

ATC, any chance you would post your rankings, see if they can help.

Very interesting article in Thursday's Daily Racing Form( DRF.COM) concerning teams coming off bye weeks. Last week all four teams coming off byes (Hou, Det, Wash, and Balt) covered the spread. This weeks plays would be MIAMI +3 at buffalo and PITTSBURGH +3 at san diego. Cleveland and Chicago are playng each other so they cancel each other out.

Also, the UNDER is 33-26-1 (56%) so far for the NFL season. IND, CINN, and TB are all 4-0 on their games going under. I have always felt that the under is the better value anyway, due to the linemaker's making the over slightly higher than it should be due to the public's lean towards playing the over.

Home teams are 32-26-1 ATS (55%)

HOME DOGS are 9-6 ATS (60%)
69%
Double digit underdogs are 2-1 ATS (66%)

Underdogs of 7 or more points are 9-4 (69%)
" " " " " " 7 1/2 or more points are 4-1 (80%)**

Hi guys


Don't you just love October. Weather impoves, baseball all day every day, the hockey starts and NFL hits full gear. Went 2-0 here to improbe to 5-7 but I must say I was lucky with SF doing everything in its power to make Arizona look good to get the over and GB gettng the back door cover as Carolina went into sleep mode. Alls well that ends well.

The Fox game is Tampa Bay v NY Jets at 3 am.

After last week you might wonder if some teams like Buffalo, the Jets, Jax, GB, SF and Houston should bother showing up. But they are all returning home and as we know bad looking teams returning home suddenly look like world beaters. The lines are all reflecting this with 11 of 14 being on a field goal to seperate them.

Thanks for the stats Saratoga. Total Points in the NFL usually average around 42.5 and they are down to 40 this year.

My picks are

Carolina v Arizona under 43.5. Arizona showed us last week that they still can't score td's even if they are given the ball for the whole game. Facing a much tougher defense here in Carolina I don't expect them to get too many 7 pointers again. Carolina also doesn't have a great offense and the stats show that Arizona defense is about the same as Carolina's. Two poor offenses against 2 average to good defenses looks like field goals will be the order of the day which should lead to a score about 4-6 points beneath the line.

Jacksonville -2.5 bt Cinci. The Bengals are +15 on the t/o table and have beaten teams that are a combined 3-11. Recieving all the breaks and only beating poor teams makes the Bengals look pretty good. The JAX are 2-2 and have played much harder opposition (10-6 combined). Cinci have been getting it done through the air and I expect that to stop on Sunday as the Jaguars are #2 in pass defense on my stats. Time for Cinci to be unlucky with the turnovers and facing a real good defense leads me to think the Jag's will win a low scoring contest by 3 or 6.

Seattle +3 bt STL. Seattle are my #1 offensive team and playing a poor defensive team in the Rams. The Seahawks should be able to run well and then set up the long passes. Stl passes ok but their rushing is poor. Seattle has a good pass defense and should hold St Loius at bay. It could be a high scoring game but I think Seattle has too many guns for the Rams.

Good luck to you all

Hi Guys and Gals,

Been busy this week so i haven't done much. Thinking along the lines of Miami, Tennessee, Broncos and the Steelers this week. All underdogs with points, except the Broncos of course. I tempted to take the Pats as Vick is injured.

Anyways take care and good luck to all our teams.

Det -1

Chi +2-

Jax(on Karla's advice, but no pressure, lass! LOL)

Close call on Jax, pheew!
Need the Steelers to get up for a winning weekend.
Redskins maybe not as bad as i once thought - perhaps, huge numbers for them this weekend but don't tell saratoga i said that though. Broncos D must have been clinging on for their lives.

Anyway, i hope you guys and gals did OK. Only so-so pour moi, again. Oh well haven't lost much nor won much so can't really complain. Go Steelers!