Free at last is a good honest mare. In my opinion she is only up to G2 company and I was expecting a big run in the craiglee. She will struggle from here on in, in top company. However I feel she is a rough place chance for the CC, almost no chance in a melb cup for mine. She also has a great trainer of stayers in Alan Matthews which can only help.

Thanks Jose and Umrum.

Agree with you Umrum on Free at Last think it might be a bit better suited to the country cups than the big ones could sneak a place in a caulfield cup but i wouldn't be putting my house on it.

I did form for the 3 big ones just the other day, projecting them forward using the ******************** ratings.

On their figures, this is what I found for the horses I liked:

Accumulate - will peak at 119, has 50 both Cups. I like it over the 3200, I reckon at this point it looks very hard to beat. Rated 114 the other day, that was a stayers run for SURE. Trainer knows something about the big race too....

Confectioner - peak probably 122, very well in Caulfield Cup with 52.5. If he does 122 in Caul (rated 117 1st up winning, natural 122 peak then on the 5 point theory), if he does 122 in Caul with 52.5, he wins it.

Vouvray - will peak at 118, has 51.5 both Cups. Keen on her in Caulfield too. 118 will go very, very close with 51.5. Obviously set for it, goes well there.

Dizelle - will peak at 119, has 51.5 both Cups, better suited the Melbourne Cup, pretty sure she'll do 119 there, however gives Accumulate 1.5 kgs.

M.Diva - 126, but with 58 kgs I reckon she'll get beat. In fact, I don't reckon she'll run in the melbourne. If she does, I think they've stopped her. However, she's almost over the line in the Cox. There's only one horse that can beat her: Super Kid from Hong Kong. On the ******************** ratings he has rated solid 120's over there and has once gone 125. That's massive. Makye Diva is the best in Aus with 126, the next best currently racing is only about 123 or less. Might even be 120 now with Grand Armee retired.

Lotteria - has a 120 coming someday. That puts her in most Cox plates very nicely (54.5 kgs WFA 4yo mare), however this year's could rate very high and her 120 might still get beat!

That's my thoughts.

Cheers.

Vouvray for mine....
 

Yeah she's really well in isn't she. Her and another mare, Dizelle, to quinella it!!

I hope she wins the Caulfield first, Vouvray that is, then attracts a 1kg penalty for the Melb and Dizelle knocks her off in that. That'd be great because I've taken that double!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

matilda beadman is on railings in the metrop

After the run by Lad of the Manor today I am more confident than ever that he can win the Cox plate he showed there today he can run 2000m at a track that wouldn't suit him at that distance Makybe will have to be within a couple of lengths of him at the Valley to beat him I am going to cop plenty for this but the best horse doesnot always win the Cox Plate if you want to know why have a look at the layout of the racetrack Lad will be in the 1st couple regardless of the barriers she will be out the back.


I am putting my head on the chopping block and don't do it very often Lad of the Manor will win the Cox Plate fire away.

Is that Darren's sister? :D

raw raw raw...

u once told me in an earlier post that makybe wouldnt do much in the making up ground department against lad but i think today proved it. king stated he didnt even push the mare. what does that say???? she is the greatest.

Bordi today was at Flemington not Moonee Valley there is an enormous difference between the 2 tracks but it doesn't take a genius to work that out. I have never once said that Makybe Diva isn't a good horse in fact she might be the best I have seen I am simply saying she is trying to win a race that doesn't suit her racing style she cannot stand the leader up 20 lengths or anything close to that in a Cox Plate and win it it is to tight a track up against the best of company. If you think I am trying to have a go at you take a horse like Lonhro a horse who in his own right a champion (I would never use that word to describe him but plenty have) he was beating Defier in every race they went against eachother there 2 years ago and beating him pointlessly then come Cox Plate day not only couldn't he get past Defier he couldn't get past Fields of Omaugh either.


Like I said it isn't always the best horse that wins this race it is usually the horse that gets the best run that wins it have a look at the last few winners Savabeel was in the 1st 3, Fields of Omaugh was in the 1st 3, Northerly was in the 1st 3 from memory as was Sunline that takes up a few years there my memory isn't the greatest so I can't really go any further back then that but all I am trying to say is she could be set mission impossible to win the race and I feel that given his racing style Lad of the Manor has me brimming with confidence right now.

If Makybe finishes in the placings in the Cox Plate I still think she might be the best horse I have seen if she wins it doing what she normally does she definitely is it would be no mean feat to win a race like this concedeing alot of ground to some very good horses around the tightest major race track in Australia at WFA conditions.

Will you eat your hat if she places Raw?

I like the way Raw thinks and will be backing Lad of the Manor for Cox Plate at handy $11 fixed odds return.

Then Lad of the Manor with about 5 other horses for the Cox-Cup double. Makybe Diva, PLastered, Vouvrey, Xcellent, Dizzle

And will probably do the same with Plastered to win the Caufield for a Caufield-Melb Cup double with the above and more horses.

Mad it wouldn't surprise me to see her place but she is going to have to be every single bit as good as everyone thinks she is and a hell of alot more to win this race I just think these other horses are a hell of alot better than anyone has given them credit for. I won't say that I will be happy to be wrong because I won't but if I am and she wins atleast I was beaten by a horses that few of us have seen a better one.

I'm only stirrin' ya Raw.

I actually liked your assessment and think it has merit. The only concern i would have is if she has been set for this race then perhaps the connections will have thought of this already. As a result they might ride her a little closer to the pace than usual, say midfield, three wide if needs be and use her blistering finish to come over the top. Otherwise, i agree with your previous assessment, it will be very difficult to win on such a tight track from so far back. However if ever there was a horse to do it, i'd back her.

As you can see i am a big Diva fan, go the Diva!

Raw your points are sound but forgetting one important point: Cox plate field will probably only have 9 horses in it. Even if she's last, she'll only give him 6 lengths max in the run, unless they go real quick in front (and if they do that, she bolts in). What is likely anyway is that they will try to settle her about 5th-6th in the run. They're not idiots, they're not going to conceded 20 lengths to lad of the manor and try to run him down, not to mention Fields of Omagh (who I think is as good a Cox plate chance as the Lad). What's likely is Lotteria will lead if in the field, Fields and Lad sit about 2nd and 3rd each, about 1 length off speed, she sits 6th-7th at worst, 5 off speed. Down the side, they coax her forward so she's within 1-2 lens off them on the bend. That's how they'll ride her. Reason: they're setting her for this race. They weren't setting her for the Feehan, that's why they put her to the tail. Even in her Melbourne Cup runs, she settles midfield.

Then, in the straight, with the weight pull on the top two and more ability, the result will be a foregone conclusion.

HOWEVER!!!!!!!!!

(and this is a big however)

There are two horses who can beat her, even if that all happens as listed above. Super Kid and Greys Inn are both extremely good horses, both of them better than Lad and Fields of Omagh. That is unquestionable. They are both better horses than Fields and Lad. They could quinella it.

I will say that I feel it will most likely be an 11 horse field something along the lines of.

1. Super Kid
2. Fields of Omagh
3. Lad of the Manor
4. Greys Inn
5. Xcellent
6. Mummify
7. Perlin
8. Confectioner ????
9. Makybe Diva
10. Lotteria ?
11. Hotel Grand

that is a rough layout of what could be the field I amnot sure if Confectioner is going that way or to the Caulfield Cup I also have doubts that they will take Lotteria to the Cox aswell but it is hard to tell really. Desert War could go this way and I amnot sure if Activation would make the field but it is another chance Binding was another who had a chance but I doubt he would get into the field on recent efforts

Possibly God's Own as well.

I expect him to go well in the Guineas next week (in fact I expect him to win it now that I chose Dream Ballad for my stable instead of him :rolleyes: ) and he could then be a starter at the Valley and a good chance.

I'm more than happy where Wild Iris is at present

I might be wrong but I thought I heard that Hotel Grand was heading to the Cox Plate after it's win on the weekend.

This weekend has finally cemented something for me. Makybe is a defier. She will defy logic. You can try and quantify the situation and state cases as to why she won;t win but when it comes to the crunch she always seems to defy logic and win anyway.

It is not a 2 horse race. Horses don;t go round in a cox plate to make up numbers - they are all there to win. Heres the scenario. Fully wound up at there utmost peak fitness, makybe is a superior animal to lad of the manor. Full stop. Therefore, going on a nose loss to lad when they wern;t peaking then makybe beats him at their peaks. If anything beats her it is one of the internationals. I don't think you can discount mummify, if you go along the pace bias theme.

Yep, I'll be the first to admit Hotel Grand was the surprise for me at the weekend. Not sure if he'll handle the next step to the Cox plate yet Duritz. Some really stiff opposition there, wouldn't rate him a chance at all in that. The Guineas is his best bet and judging by Bookmakers fixed odds markets (if that's any guide) he'll run at Caulfield next weekend. He's a chance in that.

i agree with duritz that the small field will mean diva wont have to come 10 wide round the turn and she wont be 20lengths off them.

i would like to know why you feel super kid and greys inn r better than lad n fields?

The knockout horse, if he starts, is confectioner.
i thought his run was enormous to come flying home with the diva when he got smashed at the top of the straight.

i dont know, absolute. i have never ever thought confectioner was a horse that could win a race like the cox plate. i think the horse is too soft and even though i agree with u that its run on the weekend was good i dont think it can win a cox plate. also if it is to win they will have to position the horse a lot better than on the weekend. there is no way it can come from behind makybe to win.....no horse in the race will.

yeah i know.

i was just really impressed by confectioners run, i still reken the diva will win but if something goes wrong confectioner could run a good race.

makybe diva will win by a long neck just beating lad of the manor. lad will be 2 in front at the turn and the diva will pick him up just in time.

Hi absolute, re Super kid and Greys Inn, here's their profiles:

Super Kid:

20-4-4-0

Most recent three wins have been:

18-01-2004 Group 1 1600m at Shatin carrying 57.3 kgs, beating Hidden Dragon and Bowman's crossing. Hidden Dragon is a Group 3 winner and is group 2 and 1 placed, Hidden Dragon placed in Group 1's multiple times.

30-05-2004 Group 1 2400m at Shatin carrying 57.3 again, beating River Dancer and Elegant Fashion. (the aussie). Both of those horses are group 1 winners in their own right, and both multiple group 2 winners.

11-02-05 Premier (top Group 1 events in HK) winner in HK beating the Duke and Magnifier, both either Group 1-2 winners or placegetters in their own right.


Greys Inn has only had one HK run, running 2nd to Vengeance of Rain beaten 0.5 lengths. He is a multiple group 1 winner in SAf. Thatday he ran 2nd in HK, Super Kid ran 4th.

Super Kid's run at Caulfield was enormous. 1400m is too short for him, 1600m++ is where he warms up yet first run in Australia he charges home, strongest on line to fail by less than a length behind Barely A Moment, who previous start had run Makybe Diva to a head giving her about 3 kgs weight.

Lad of the Manor has not won a Group 1. He has won three Group 2's but he is arguably at the top of his game right now. Doubt there's any more improvement in him, whereas Super Kid does have improvement, and as I said, Super Kid has won 3 Group 1s.

That's why they're better horses.

Duritz to be perfectly honest with you I am more worried about Greys Inn and Super Kid than I am about anyone else that could be in the race. The race in HK when Greys Inn ran Vengance of Rain to a half length did he come from off the speed or was he sitting right there on the pace I honestly cannot remember and for some reason I thought he flashed home.

We'll hold you to that.

Made ground, Raw. Came from 9th early, 8th turn. Very strong and was picking the winner up well on the line. They both went very well, were both strong on the line and both pulling away. Would love to see the sectionals, would think greys inn's finals would be very impressive.

That impressed me as a very, very high strength race. The way they went, both of them bolting strongly on the line I thought my God they're going well. Two very good horses.

I personally think Greys is a better horse than Super Kid, but Super Kid's run at the 1400m 1st up was enormous for a miler. For me that proves the quality.

The expert form ratings have them really strong too. Both of them rate better than all the Aussie chances, except for the Diva of course, but I seriously doubt her 126 rating can be reproduced at 2040m. I suspect she is an absolute max of about 122-3 that trip. Best she's ever done career so far that trip is 121 winning the Australia Cup. That may actually be her 2000m max. If it is, she's very vulnerable to the HK raiders. However here 121 will beat Fields and Lad if she repeats it, Fields best rating is 121 winning his Cox plate, Lad rated about 120 or so in the Feehan. They give her weight, of course, which would be the difference.

Super Kid has a 125 in HK and regular 121's. Greys Inn rated 123 behind Vengeance that day. If he goes 123 in Cox, it's over.

For your interest - Might and Power rated 127 in the Caul Cup. He's the best they've rated. Initially they thought Super Impose rated 128 but it was only about 124 when he won his Epsom.

About the Imports
 

Every year I've picked the best looking import and it's done the best out of them. It certainly doesn't work with Australian horses, but with the imports, they seem to race as good as they look. To test this theory I will let you know once I've seen them who my pick is. I would really upset a year or 2 ago they had this gorgeous chestnut over here i THOUGHT for the melbourne cup. He raced in a couple of group 1's and never really made any impression, but I would really have liked to have seen him in the big one.

That would be sound thinking if they were robots and ran according to an input pad where you typed in todays run hash 123, but unfortunately it is a race between animals.

Sportz,
I am expecting Perfectly Ready to go well in the Guineas. Average barrier, good and regular jockey. Any comment. Like his last race when lost to Gonski as he was blocked for a run at 200m and zoom up once clear.

Tenacious - yep that's exactly right, they are flesh and blood. That's why we have odds. However those animals have ability, and some have none at all (I own one like that), and that ability can be quantified.

Cant agree with much of what has been said on this thread.Cant agree that the diva is a certainty either,as time eternal has proven over and over there are no certainties in racing.Freedman has said all along that he has set her specifically for the Cox and does NOT want to run her in the Cup.As a 7yo mare IMO she would be hard pressed to win it anyway.Going up 1200mtrs in such a short space of time would also be against her,especially if she has to do it tough in the Cox,and dont forget she has got 58kgs.IMO she will not run,at least if the owner does listen to the trainer!!Dont know what path Mike Moroney is going to take with Xcellent,but if it runs in the Cox it will go very close,it has an enormous turn of foot,which only top notch horses have.I know it failed it its only run in Aus,but the track conditions did not suit.Anyone who has seen its 2 wins since resuming would have be blind not to give it a top chance.IMO it is the only possible danger to the Diva,and IMO it will beat her.Foo is past it now,Lad of wont blow wind up their butts when the chips are down,and as for all the ranting and raving about the HK imports,can you name me one from there that has cut the mustard in AUS???

As for the Caulfield Cup,It is a great race for 4yo horses,so I am looking at Dizelle,Hollow Bullet,Xcellent,Stella Grande.

Melbourne Cup is a good race for 4,5 and 6yo.

Cant narrow them right down until final fields and lots of form study of course,but have got some fairly huge doubles going already from a while ago.Hopefully some will make it to the field,let alone win!!!

Hey hows it going guys, im new to this thread

Duritz i was wonderin what rating does Eye Popper have at the moment, i see he ran a good 4th when the diva ran in 7th, somewhere in hong kong i think it was

thanks

I exhausted my opinion on this thread but this is about the last thing I will say

Cox Plate: Lad of the Manor (we will see on the day who is blowing wind up whose ass won't we), Greys Inn & Mummify I amnot saying that Makybe Diva can't win nor do I say that Xcellent won't win either but they have one hell of a job ahead of them.

Caulfield Cup: This is a race that if you run it 10 times you might end up with 10 different winners the runners look so closely bunched it is hard to seperate them. I like Vouvray, Sir Dex, Portland Singa & maybe Railings although I do feel that Railings is a better shot in the Melbourne Cup.

Melbourne Cup: Who knows right now Makybe Diva if she goes here is an obvious chance but will be doing it without my money this year 58kgs and the step up in distance have to put some doubt there. Railings is the one for me he has stayer written all over him by Zabeel out of a Palace Music mare I can see no reason why he can't run the 2 miles but he does also seem to have a bit of a turn of foot. I have not picked anything else really as I don't feel I have seen any good 2 milers outside of the 2 I mentioned Vouvray, Sir Dex and Portland Singa maybe chances but I wouldn't be taking anything short about them running 2 miles. Plastered has to be a big hope but if I was on here to tip the favs to everyone then it would become awful boring so I just try and make a case why something that is value has a chance or can win I will let you work the rest out.

The Caufield cup is looking like this to me:

My current trifecta is(in order): Mr Celebrity, El Segundo and Sir Dex

Mr Celebrity: Very talented horse winning the george Main & fav 4 the epsom. He is only going to get better over more ground which is scary as he is one of the top milers going round

El Segundo: great form around Makybe Diva then won easily beating a good field, form has since been proven with show barry winning well in the cran cup.

Sir Dex: Underated horse which keeps running great races, due for a win soon and i think the cup is it

Mr C is huge value now at $26. Anyone know if he is being targetted at the caufield cup?????
I would like to know if he is going to start or not b4 i jump at him.

Everything I have heard recently basically said that El Segundo will not be racing in the Caulfield Cup not sure whether that had to do with order of entry or whether they just didn't want to take him to that race this year. If he goes to the Cup then he is a chance ofcourse. Mr. Celebrity is supposed to be being aimed at the Cox Plate so I would seriously doubt if that is the case it will be running in the Caulfield Cup and besides Waterhouse doesn't exactly have a stellar record in melbourne who knows though could be about to change I for one certainly would never wish any luck on the woman the best thing about Melbourne Racing is that she sucks there when she is there, Not to mention her horses are usually drastically overrated and blow the prices of everything else out.


Just to set the record straight Absolute Truth I amt bagging your selections I can't be bothered doing that anymore however I am just saying what I have heard and if true those 2 horses would be less than 50% chances of even being in the race. As far as the Waterhouse thing goes sorry if your a fan I cannot stand her have not and will not back anything she ever trains probably the reason I don't bet to much in sydney I guess.

I should add that Sir Dex will definitely be in the Caulfield Cup atleast if your looking at fixed odds and give him a chance you won't be throwing your money away on something that will not even be there on the day.

Re the question about HK horse's cutting the mustard - in the last 5 years virtually none have come across. One that does spring to mind though is Cape of Good Hope...... goes OK, beat a little horse called Spark of Life (dual Manikato winner) amongst others.

In the Caulfield Cup, if Caulfield track is dry and Confectioner gets a run and a reasonable barrier draw (very important) he is a certainty. Forget the rest, he just wins. Don't waste your dough on others. If you don't believe me, go back and watch the replay of his run behind the Diva the other day. Watch it again. Also, know that in that race he rated 120. Last year, winning the Caul Cup, Elvis rated 119. Year before, Mummify, 118. Confectioner has 52 or so in the Caulfield. Just put your maximum bet on if he's in and the track is dry etc and thank me later.

Wanger97 re Eye Popper, that race was in Japan unfortunately, Expert form don't have ratings on the land of the rising sun.

Get on pLastered almost a good thing for the CC. Saver on sir dex.