924
Hopefully everyone bets to a % of bank. Anything more than 2% would be regarded as very aggressive, but many bet much higher % purely because of low resources. As for this topic, I've given up on it. People will believe whatever they want to believe [this writer included]. My point has been seen and appreciated by some who have the eyes and nous. That's a small achievment I'll settle for.

If you were a Pro-Punter 924 [and now ? ..a failed pro-punter ? :-) ], what are you doing here, slumming it?. Your forum life would [probably] have revolved around Ausrace where the big bettors mostly roam, Do you have an Ausrace name ?

Congratulations on gaining more than my conservative estimate of 10%,it sounds like you have a very sound approach.

Crash and his supporters have obviously missed this example of a way to lessen the random effect by actualy increasing the amount of horses bet.


Tell me La Mer if you have two races,one with 1 bet and another with 3 which race holds the most enjoyment/entertainment value?,for me it is always the race with more bets.

Hi Crash,

"If you were a Pro-Punter 924 [and now ? ..a failed pro-punter ? :-) ], what are you doing here, slumming it?. Your forum life would [probably] have revolved around Ausrace where the big bettors mostly roam, Do you have an Ausrace name ?"

Not that I have to, but as I have explained previously, for family reasons, I left Australia in 1992 and was therefore unable to continue professional punting in Australia nor use my methods in New Zealand. (where I currently live).

It is only now, after inroads in online betting options that I am again looking at re entering the Australian fray. I am still undecided about that. It is such a time consuming exercise and money isnt everything to me.Believe me, a professional punter earns every single dollar that comes his way. It is not (for me) a lazy man's way to riches..

I have nothing to do with Ausrace and although I doubt that every pro punter is involved with Ausrace,I dont even know what ausrace is. lol. neither myself or my colleagues were ever involved with ausrace (which didnt exist back then as far as I know). Punters have widely varying ways of operating and for some it can be a very isolated, time-consuming and lonely occupation.

I know where Ive been and what I have done and what I have succeeded at.
The punting hallenge for me in the first place was to achieve something that most people believe impossible. I have done that over a decade and now I have to decide if I really wish to go back over old ground.. OPunting is a living, but not necessarily the most satisfying or rewarding. It is, afterall, WORK.

"what are you doing here, slumming it?".

With some of the bickering that goes on here, I am wondering what I am doing here sometimes :)
all the very best to you

Crash next start take the blinkers off!

To assume that the Ausrace forum is the be all and end all of pro punting is a limited way to look at things.

As for you giving up on this thread,before you do answer the multi horse argument that shoots down your selectivity and amusement theory.

W924 – While I agree with a lot of what you’ve written, I go about it differently re ‘unit’ betting inasmuch as my ‘unit’ betting is set not as the stake but as the amount to be won (based on my assessed prices)

I’ll give an example of one race I bet in from last Saturday:

Flemington – Race 7
Sky Cuddle 5.30 (3.20)
Ballet Society 6.40 (4.50)
Candy Vale 7.80 (5.50)
The first price is the average price I took on Betfair, while the price in brackets is the assessed price.

The target was to show a profit of $200 should Sky Cuddle win, while the two other bets were merely ‘saver’ bets.

The outlays were:

Sky Cuddle $130
Ballet Society $48
Candy Vale $39

for at total of $217.

As Sky Cuddle won and was a huge over based on my assessed prices, the return was $689 for a profit of $472, more than double the planned target of $200 profit.

Had one of the two ‘saver’ bets won, a profit of just under $100 would have still been shown (again) because of the overs.

While this race was my best result for the day, I had a total of seven returns from thirteen races I bet into.

So while you and many others may bet to a percentage of your working capital, I don’t preferring to set a profit target and bet accordingly to assessed profits. Believe me, it can be a very lucrative approach to punting.

Hi Dale
 

HI Dale,

Thanks for posting. I can deduce, with almost 100% certainty that Crash is writing about an arena in which he has never personally entered, and on that score , imo, he is not really qualified to take to task anyone who has.

I am the first to admit that it has been awhile since I was there in that capacity, but at least I have been there and can at least write from first hand eperience.

Crash does appear to have some great knowledge in some areas and has the potential to be a fantastic forum contributor ...now if we could just get him to play the ball and not the man.

Hi La mer
 

So while you and many others may bet to a percentage of your working capital, I don’t preferring to set a profit target and bet accordingly to assessed profits. Believe me, it can be a very lucrative approach to punting.

I certainly do not doubt that for a minute. ...there are many ways to profit..and I am not convinced that my personal appraoch is necessarily the best one for me....choosing the "right" approach according to our personal make-up is crucial....After a personal horror run of second placings, as a win bettor, I see considerable merit in your approach. :)

It really doesn't matter to me other than for the preference for the horse that is going to return the most profit. As I've stated previously. quite often when I bet three horses in a race, one or two may only be 'saver' bets as I work to the premise of outlays not being more than two-thirds of the assessed profit with the preferred position being outlays equalling assessed profit, ie. an even money bet.

In most cases I manage to get overalay prices so that the actual profits (when obtained) are higher than the assessed profit.

One bet I didn't take last Saturday was on Makybe Diva as the price on offer was only equal to my assessed price of $3.10 so I preferred to stay out, which on this occasion was to my cost. However, on other occasions making marginal bets are just that, marginal bets that over a period add little to the bottom line.

Hi La Mer,
Thanks for that illustration of your betting method, quite illuminating.
Without giving too much away, when you look at your prices and compare them to prices on offer what are the first key areas you look at to decide it's a race worth betting on. Like perhaps the favorite is ridiculously underpriced compared to your ratings or some other outstanding feature, or is it just an overall assessment which varies from race to race. Or perhaps you are computer driven.

KV

KV - When determining the likely races to bet in, the first thing I look for is the number genuine chances - up to three is normally the limit - usually looking for the gap in the assessed prices as the measure. I never worry about a roughie winning because these things happen and have to accept that chaos prevails at times.

The other thing is planning the days bets out well before the first race so I have an idea of what lies ahead and where the pressure points are, ie. last Saturday between 1.25pm & 2.25pm there were potential bets in seven races, meaning a period of concentration and acceptance that I might not always get the best price available, as there is little time for lingering around to get an extra ten or twenty cents on Betfair.

Other than that there really are no hidden secrets – just a belief that over time the ratings will prevail – plunges don’t worry me - some score, some miss – other than one that is on a horse that I want to back, meaning I will likely take a price (given that it is still equal to or better than the assessed price) earlier than normal.

Using Sportingbet is an essential tool as their prices are the most accurate that I have come across, reflecting what is happening with the on track bookmakers.

924. Quote: "Crash does appear to have some great knowledge in some areas and has the potential to be a fantastic forum contributor ...now if we could just get him to play the ball and not the man." End Quote.

What and you never play the man 924? You just have stupid. Apart from the bit above your post was full of it when referring to me. This forum is stuffed with idiots playing the man because that's their mental capacity play ground. I do it to those who do it to me [only] and I can be very, very good at it.

Now you have 'outed' yourself as an ex pro punter [expert by innuendo], your handing out[above] condescending pieces of cod's wallop 924. I couldn't give a rat's that you have now prefaced all your opinions from here on in with [I was a pro punter] "I'm an expert at this game" [don't slip up]. Your opinion is worth no more than mine or anyone else's here.

Also, you know nothing about my life whatsoever. I might have spent the last 30 yrs. as a pro punter and you wouldn't know and I'd never tell anyone on a punter forum either if I had. I'd never be that thick.

Yet at the start of this thread your whole point was that you punt purely for fun and don't expect to win.

You are an ass Crash, and you need to get over yourself very quickly.

BJ Quote: "Yet at the start of this thread your whole point was that you punt purely for fun and don't expect to win".

Yes, I do only bet for pleasure [now]. Doesn't mean I always did and I have never said in all my forum posts anywhere that I didn't expect to win, dummy. Not that I would ever be stupid enough to claim I do [or don't] here. I leave those bragging rights for others to make.

As for the rest of your post, I refer you to my one of my previous post's points: ...."This forum is stuffed with idiots playing the man because that's their mental capacity playground". A point you adequately have volunteered to prove very well. Thank you.

I think you proved it as soon as you posted it.

I ask you Crash, what do you get out of this forum? You seem to be negative about every post, and every poster. If you prefer the other forum where you and the only other pro punters in the country converse, then why are you here?

w924, for christs sake mate don't leave this forum.
I actually find your posts quite interesting, you sound a lot like a gentleman to me, one of the good guys (and I reckon I speak for a lot of other non combatants who view these threads too)

Still playing the man BJ. In your case however it's pretty much hurling insults and name calling. Playing the man takes a bit of class and wit.

Hi Crash
 

Happy Holidays Crash. May you, and all those with you, have a wonderful adventure.

crash crash crash
 

the first part of this thread was great,it opened up veiw points from all,and as we are all different and have different ways of puntting its a great way to share opions and eyedeers.........but it sure does seem to have taken a turn for the worse in the last few pages,just becouse someone does not agree with you crash does not mean that you are wrong or right,it just there thoughts and the way they go about there puntting...........................
but mumma allways said a bird can fly but a fly cant bird.....
have a good holi crash and try to have a few sleep ins.........
have a good day all.....slowman.....

Love your work Slowman lol.

Me too Slowman :-)
See you on the mat when I return 924.
Thanks for the wishes.

Sorry buddy,but horse racing is not a negative market.
You can't I can't,no-one can assess the odds exactly as you can in mathematical games of chance.
Therefore markets cannot be framed with accuracy as in a casino.
Therefore some chances in a race are over the odds.Positive expectation!

I'm sure you believe you are good at it but the sad thing is, to me, you come across somewhere between a grumpy old curmudgeon and a bully. 924 summed up perfectly the way I feel about your posting and I say this not in any purile attempt to upset you but in the equally unlikely hope that you might try to look at yourself as others see you.

KV

THE LEGEND LIVES!
LONG LIVE DON SCOTT!

My goodness.
The more I read of this great man,the more I want to jump into his bed.
Do you post tips on the forum prior to the event?
If I were to lose I would prefer to lose on sound logic principles that you seem to possess.

Nice pickup,BJ.
Shame you had to spoil your brilliance with nastiness.