8-4.05 CARLTON DRAUGHT CAULFIELD CUP 2400 M
1st $1500000, 2nd $375000, 3rd $200000, 4th $110000, 5th $90000, 6th $75000, 7th $75000, 8th $75000.

1 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman D Nikolic 57
2 RAZKALLA (USA) Saeed Bin Suroor 55
3 FIGHT YOUR CORNER (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor K McEvoy 54.5
4 EYE POPPER (JPN) Izumi Shimizu S Fujita 54
5 PLASTERED Lindsey Smith P J Harvey 54
6 CARTE DIAMOND (USA) Brian Ellison 53
7 SIR DEX Gregory Hickman Z Purton 53
8 STELLA GRANDE Lee Freedman N Ryan 52.5
9 RAILINGS John Hawkes G Childs 52
10 DEMERGER Danny O'Brien D Dunn 51.5
11 DIZELLE John Hawkes D Beadman 51.5
12 HOLLOW BULLET John McArdle 51.5
13 PORTLAND SINGA (NZ) Neville McBurney L Cassidy 51.5
14 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody S Seamer 51.5
15 WILD IRIS Guy Walter G Boss 51.5
16 EL SEGUNDO (NZ) Colin Little D Gauci 49.5
17 IRISH DARLING Tony Vasil D Moor (a) 49.5
18 LEICA FALCON Richard Freyer 48
19E LACHLAN RIVER (NZ) John Morrisey Steven King 51.5
20E NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison 53
21E BAZELLE (NZ) Paul Jenkins 50.5

I made a mistake with Leica Falcon's weight in an earlier post. Sorry about that.

Tenacious Spirit I pretty much agree with mostof what you say Dizelle looks a very good horse to pot gets to far back and hasn't been hitting the line as strongly as some others which are in this race with it. I have liked everything I have seen from Sir Dex comes down to the fact whether he can stick his head out and win one of these big ones this is his best chance. I have also been real impressed with both Vouvray & Portland Singa if either of them draw a decent gate then they are real live chances.

I finid it funny everyone has been bagging Plastered so far what alot of people forget he is an out and out stayer just really toughs it out but doesn't have a change of pace that could be his downfall I feel it will be this week I can see him running a real nice race maybe a placing just don't know if he can win it.

I really like Railings alot he has been my Meblourne Cup tip for quite sometime and he hasn't disappointed yet I am hoping he runs a good race this weekend just not win as I have doubts to whether he can win both races, The appointment of Childs is a huge bonus Beadman sometimes does have brain explosions in big races. I to wouldn't write off Mummify just yet he is to good of a horse and in good form tot totally discount.

Portland Singa a great each way bet if it draws well and pace on, best value of field by far. Dizelle is a moral Melbourne Cup day. That mare will FLY over 3200 and remember, Hawkes all along has had that race and that race only in mind. People potting her on lack of zip for this prep compared to last must remember that last prep she was a lot fresher, this prep he's setting her for 3200. Look for a massive closing run over the 2400 for the first time this prep on Sat. She was a huge run last Saturday, checked badly at about the 200 and really hit the line well late. I'm tipping she'll be single figure Melb Cup odds by Monday next week and perhaps even favourite after a huge run in the Caulfield. May win it.

Well ive got a double of Plastered CC/Demerger MC at a handy 80-1 so ill be rooting for Plastered on the weekend. lol (i typed tommorow). But there are two light weight horses whcih im sure everyone wil be following with a keen eye, Leica Falcon and El Segundo. Whether they can master the pace in an 18 horse field giving them room for their runs will be interesting. I hope to see Demerger running on late to put him right on prime time for a Melbourne Cup performance.

But the way a few people have been talking about Railings, could become the silent killer.

But if they're talking about it, it ain't silent! :)

any1 know wats happening with confectioner?

Yeh well, its not creating the tabloid attention as most of the other horses are. Bah maybe there was no need for the silent comment.

what does everyone reckon about how the race will be run. how much speed will there be up front?

Pace will be good because if nothing leads, Mummify will. He won't want to crawl along, he'll want to set an even tempo because if he crawls along he lacks the turn of foot (esp with the weight) that his lightly raced rivals have. He's always been a strong 1 pacer who goes best with pace on. Look at how he blew them away in Singapore when they went cracking pace in front recently.

Cox Plate, then Melbourne Cup.

Confectioner....melbourne cup. LOL. Why don;t they run him in the cox and then put him away, there is NO chance repeat NO chance confectioner could run 3200 even if he had 6 legs.

Raw, you wern't referring to me potting plastered? I reckon he is even a bit too brilliant for the melbourne cup despite his trainer being adament that it is an out and out dour stayer. I think he makes a top horse over 2400.

In terms of Vouvray, i don't know what too think. Seems a 'gunna' horse. But she has obviously been set for one race and one race only.

Portland more suited to melbourne cup but a win is not beyond her.

Can't agree with you Duritz RE dizelle. My theory is that shes a bogger. She should go back to sandown and mornington races.

Confectioner won't get a start in the Cox Plate either.

Either the MV Cup, Mackinnon or Dalgety, Sandown Cup.

Despite what has been reported in some media today, I think you will find that Confectioner WILL get a start in the Cox Plate. The CEO of MVRC stated so on radio this morning. Unlike the Caulfield Cup, the Cox Plate is by invitation of the MVRC with just four horses at this stage exempted into the race: Maykbe Diva, Xcellent, Mummify and Lad Of The Manor with the other ten runners plus the three emergencies being at the discretion of the MVRC - unlike handicap races like the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups there are no formal qualifying clauses.

BARRIER DRAW:

8-4.05 CARLTON DRAUGHT CAULFIELD CUP 2400 M
1 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman D Nikolic 20 57
2 RAZKALLA (USA) Saeed Bin Suroor N.Rawiller 18 55
3 FIGHT YOUR CORNER (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor K McEvoy 2 54.5
4 EYE POPPER (JPN) Izumi Shimizu S Fujita 9 54
5 PLASTERED Lindsey Smith P J Harvey 16 54
6 CARTE DIAMOND (USA) Brian Ellison 7 53
7 SIR DEX Gregory Hickman Z Purton 1 53
8 STELLA GRANDE Lee Freedman N Ryan 10 52.5
9 RAILINGS John Hawkes G Childs 12 52
10 DEMERGER Danny O'Brien D Dunn 11 51.5
11 DIZELLE John Hawkes D Beadman 21 51.5
12 HOLLOW BULLET John McArdle S.King 15 51.5
13 PORTLAND SINGA (NZ) Neville McBurney L Cassidy 6 51.5
14 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody S Seamer 14 51.5
15 WILD IRIS Guy Walter G Boss 19 51.5
16 EL SEGUNDO (NZ) Colin Little D Gauci 4 49.5
17 IRISH DARLING Tony Vasil D Moor (a) 3 49.5
18 LEICA FALCON Richard Freyer C.Williams 13 48
19E LACHLAN RIVER (NZ) John Morrisey Steven King 17 51.5
20E NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison 8 53
21E BAZELLE (NZ) Paul Jenkins 5 50.5

don't pot confec., he would've won that Caul Cup and he will get 3200.

As much as I like the horse (he's won me money so why wouldn't I like him) there is no evidence to suggest that he could run out a strong 3200m. He has only ever won up to 2000m and has failed at 2400m on two occasions: in one he got beat about ten lengths.

Would be interested to know your reasoning or is it merely just a gut feeling?

Latest Odds from Queesland Tab

EL SEGUNDO $3.40
PLASTERED $5.50
LEICA FALCON $7.00
RAILINGS $11.00
SIR DEX $12.00
VOUVRAY $13.00
DIZELLE $15.00
MUMMIFY $18.00
DEMERGER $21.00
PORTLAND SINGA $21.00
CARTE DIAMOND $31.00
FIGHT YOUR CORNER $31.00
LACHLAN RIVER (1E) $31.00
WILD IRIS $31.00
BAZELLE (3E) $51.00
EYE POPPER $61.00
HOLLOW BULLET $61.00
IRISH DARLING $81.00
RAZKALLA $81.00
STELLA GRANDE $81.00
NATURAL BLITZ (2E) $101.00

Good E/W is Railing and Dizelle

Sir Dex has to be a ****** good chance now drawing 1 he could be sitting about 4th or 5th on the rail behind a solid pace has to be a big show now and at $12-$15 he is good vaule. Tenacious Spirit I wasn't saying you were bagging Plastered just seems that alot of people around the media and on the net are I do disagree with you about him being dour though he does look very one paced to me MC is the race for him to win if he is going to win anything this prep. Also like Portland Singa more now to had to draw a good gate to be a chance in this she could also be sitting in a nice posie now to.

Portland Singa is a massive chance. Huge overs. I've taken $390 the double Portland Singa into Dizelle in the Melbourne today just at the TAB. Huge overs.

As for Confectioner at the 3200, forget his Caulfield Cup run last year. Too bad a run to be indicative. In his other 2400m run, here's the expert form video comment on the run: "Eased, settled down at rear. Even tempo. well back hooked out straightening up, sprint home. Left too much to do." but still ran 4th beaten 3.4, making ground on the line. Then in the mackinnon, over 2000, whilst beaten soundly by Grand Armee he closed best of all for 2nd and thrashed the rest. Also, the way he stretched out the last bit and importantly after the line in the Yalumba indicated he had plenty left for further. Looks to be turning into a big, strong horse not unlike GRand Armee. In fact, is reminding me a lot of that horse now and is rating similarly.

I think the horse should run in the Mackinnon because he would annihilate them. would be the greatest cert of the carnival. However, David Hayes thinks that Confec will be best suited of all in the Melbourne Cup, so he obviously believes it'll get the trip.

All I am saying is that you can't say he won't get 3200 until he tries. To me he will get 2400 comfortably and a horse who does get a strong 2400m and who can settle, is a high class galloper with the ability to quicken, well, if you pot them when they're untried, do so at your own peril.

One who will eat up the trip though is Dizelle. I keep tipping that horse here, I hope some of you take notice because I think it will be a really good bet come Melbourne Cup day. Those who think it's a wet tracker, go back and watch the Turnbull run where she finished 11th, beaten 6 lens, on a dry track. Watch how well it goes. Here's the expert-form video comment of that run: "settled down midfield 4lens rails, got through between horses 3lens turn, bolting, looked a threat, badly checked when going for run 300, lost 4lens. Got going strongly late. Very stiff"

Will be very, very strong in the Melbourne, and very, very hard to beat.

Can't say I necessarily agree with you, but thanks for your answer and reasoning.

IMO if she runs in the Melbourne Cup, THE mare will give them all wind burn as she sails past them in the straight.

I wish you luck with Dizelle mate it is the other Hawkes runner that has me excited about the Melbourne Cup Railings has really made huge strides this prep matter of whether it can keep going or not. I have doubles with Sir Dex-Railings @ $360, Portland Singa-Railings @ $655, Vouvray-Railings @ $465 & Portland Singa-Vouvray @ $405 right now I am pretty happy with what I have might do one or two more over the next couple of days.

I amnot going to say that Makybe Diva can't win the Melbourne Cup she certainly can I will take my chances on it though.

I'm a huge fan of the Diva but am willing to bet against her with 58. Fact is she is maxed out with that weight, and in order to win would need everything to go right in the run (like the last 2 years) and then she would have enough in her to win by a head or so only. If anything at all goes wrong, with 58 she won't be able to win. Willing to pot her heavily actually. Not saying she "can't" win, but as I said, she'll need everything to go absolutely right. If a lightly weighted mare like Dizelle is within 2L of her turning, getting about 7kgs off her, the Diva won't be able to hold her out.

Hey Duritz,

Apparently, Eye Popper has a current rating of 111 (same scale as Timeform I suggest) in Japan. Pretty much suggests he's outclassed. I couldnt find his rating for 2004, which probably means he didnt rate 100 or better during the year.

BTW, Tosen Dandy has a 2005 rating of 103 & 2004 rating of 105 on the turf.

i have money on eye popper so hope he win lol

Thanks Chief. I think both those horse's will be outclassed at the elite level. Might be a lower race in there for Tosen Dandy, grinded away like a possible provincial Cup winner at Cranbourne, that looks his level.

Eye Popper's 111 might translate to a race like the Sandown Classic perhaps?

Apparently Lachlan River is in & Fight Your Corner is out.

Adds a bit more spice.

I'm hoping there might be some genuine pace on. With two known one-pacers (Mummify & Plastered) drawn wide, they may have no option but to roll forward. I seriously doubt either can win by taking a sit. If one of the imports is a front-runner, it could be a closer's race.

I'm might be leaning towards Sir Dex. Vastly improved this year. I initially thought his first-up win was flukey, but now has enough good runs in the strongest company this prep as proof positive. Has always shown ability really.

Yep. Strong chance, will be run to suit him too. Still though, when all's said and done, if El Segundo repeats the Yalumba run, he wins.

I saw areplay of El Segundo's last win.
My goodness gracious me.
I am having a hundred on it for the Cu\aulfield Cup.
SPECIAL
Bit skinny at $3.40 but!

Should have got on BEFORE Confectioner was screwed over !! ;)

Hi all,

Did I read the Vic Caulfield Cup form correctly on Eye Popper where he got 3rd and beat Makybe Diva (7th)??? Was carrying 58.5Kg and now only 54Kg??

Matilda.

Yep.

They reckon that the track was too hard for Makybe Diva that day, but still not a bad effort by Eye Popper.

It was also at the end of a long campaign, an afterthought race and didn't travel too well to Japan - in other words a race better forgotten about re MD.

Duritz just saw your post saying confectioner would get 3200. No he wouldn;t couldnt and can't. I will eat humble pie if he does but i am extremely confident he would not even get close.

If he's in the Melbourne Cup, he WILL run 3200m. Exactly how fast he runs it, well that's another thing. :D

the big ELL
 

he had the dream run,,,,but hey ,he won well and was not pushed to hard......
i had a good crack at him and thought it was way overs @7.00 but this is the cup and any thing under five bucks is a rip...............
have a good day.........slowman..............

LOL Sportz, touche'.

Tenacious for me the clincher on whether he'll get the 3200 is Hayes. I thoroughly respect his judgement, unlike a LOT of other trainers, and I have it on quite good authority that he has always thought it a better chance for the Melbourne. You might be right, I certainly concede he's a query at it.

Moe Cup today, Gee that was a moral. It was my only bet for the day. Sportingbet put up $5.00, I thought about it and decided to wait for $5.50, their next offer was $4.60, I got annoyed so didn't take it (still 5.90 on tote) then next was 4.20, then 4.0, then 3.70. I didn't take any of those. No, clever me backed it "best price" with them, for which I got SP, at $3.30. How do you spell M-U-G?

Anyway, go the Segundo.

go RAILING AND EYE POPER!