SATURDAY 1ST. APRIL

CAULFIELD
R2/3 CHARMED LADY
R4/3 ANNA'S CHOICE
R5/2 KELTHORPE
R7/9 MADISON LANE
R8/5 CORRECT AMOONDO [$2.92]

PERTH
R4/8 IS AMAZING [$1.42]

CHELTENHAM
R3/3 EXALTED MADAM [$1.54]
R4/4 HEADLAND [W$3.42 P$1.95]
R5/2 FAXED [W$4.59 P$1.63]
R6/4 DAME SEVEN
R7/9 OBGLO [$2.59]

DOOMBEN
R2/3 WESLEY MANOR [$1.96]

BENDIGO
R7/11 COSTA MARBELLA [UNLUCKY 4TH. BUT ONE TO WATCH]

OUTLAY 13 UNITS. RETURN 12.47 LOSS 0.53UNITS
Total O/L overall of 89 units for a return of 93.07 Profit 4.07

MORAL OF THE STORY? MELB. IS FULL OF HORSES WHO DIDN'T 'COME UP' [NOT IN SYDNEY NOW] THIS PREP. AND ARE STRUGGLING TO EVEN PLACE IN THESE WEAK RACES. DURING THE WEEK LOOKS BETTER PROSPECTS [DAY OFF TOMORROW].

MONDAY 3RD APRIL

ARARAT
R4/1 COURT ON FIRE
R6/6 TENESSEE TOM (2)
R7/2 ROCKY CAMP

ORANGE
R3/2 I'D BE HONORED
R7/4 FINIAL

DONT LIKE THE CESSNOCK TRACK SO NO TIPS FROM THERE.

Still showing 4.57% POT there Crash, and I suspect that you can do better on the returns than IAS.

Tell me where mate, tell me where !
Remember though I only have 'dial-up' in this hick joint. I can't change from site to site quickly. I need one site only paying better than IAS.

IAS is cagey. They pay more than 2 out of 3. Often the 3rd pays higher [stab usually]. Swings and slides with them.

Cheers.

PS. Luckily I missed getting my first bet on today [Orange]. It lost. Hope I do better on the others.

Get's a bit complicated but "they " all tell me that you can get BEST of 3 totes (City Eastern States) and best of NSW& Supertab for Country )they Count Perth as Country)
So I bet half at Best of 2 and the other half at Unitab, though I think there is a better way somehow.

I'm talking about PLACE only bets there. (Not sure what happens when the bets get too big though)

Party,

Sounds as if I'm stuck with IAS. My place bets range from $50 to $100 but mostly closer to $50. My win bets [where my faith lies] are from $100 to $500 but I bet them TAB [STAB] due to being previously banned from Sportingbet [after one particularly good year] and knowing full well restriction from IAS [$25 win bets] will apply if winning too often, but they will not ban. My only win bet today scored nicely on Rocky Camp which I rated at $2.50 the win. The odds I backed I considered way over the odds at STAB $3.50.

Place Bets.

ARARAT
R4/1 COURT ON FIRE [SP Fav. and missed a place ]
R6/6 TENESSEE TOM [SP Fav. W 1.72 P 1.11] Crap.
R7/2 ROCKY CAMP [3rd. SP. W$3.66 P $1.53]


ORANGE
R3/2 I'D BE HONORED [2nd.SP fav. and missed] I missed getting it on too:-)
R7/4 FINIAL [2nd. fav. ran 2nd.$1.53]

Total outlay for me today was 4 units. Return 4.17 Would have been a loss if all bets were placed. This place business is a hard one. I'm very impressed by anyone who can make a decent stab at it.

Crash, believe it or not you are doing great!! but that's the thing you see place betting is usually treading water for months sometimes, but usually a great run then puts you in front I've had 19 placed in a row (once) and many many times 10 + in a row, my longest run of outs was 4 (3 times) so far, but usually it's win lose win lose win lose, win win lose win etc etc. But you definitly won't need the blood pressure tabs for place betting.

PS. Just by the by, your selections today Rocky Camp $4 on Unitab

Place bets

Mr 6-6 $1.20 (unitab)
Mr 7-2 $1.50 (NSW)
Srx7-4 $1.50 (Nsw)

So your outlay = 4 units return = $4.20c a 5% gain rather than a loss,
obvious I know but what I'm saying is your POT would be considerably more shopping
for the divies

Cancell that just read yours again and you did show a profit sorry, but correct in principle.

Crash, stick to the nb

what's nb? (showing my ignorance I know)

no Brainer

ah! well that explains it, I don't have a brain, I have been married "TWICE"

Hi Feather. So nb is doing OK at the moment is he?

I haven't see him lately so I'll have to pay him a visit and re-look at his angle and 'catch up' a bit. Today sounds like a good idea:-)

Party,
I don't think you know nb. An acquaintance of Feathers and mine. You may have heard of him mentioned before but have probably forgotten. I'll have to introduce you some time [privately]. Worth knowing. Feather thinks a lot of his style. What do you think feather, should we introduce Party to nb?

Nb does have his down side. After one particularly good year following his advice he got me banned from sportingbet for winning too much money !!

TUESDAY 4TH APRIL

MACKAY
R6/3 LUX
R7/1 KADINSKI

ALBANY
R5/4 FLYING CROWN

PORT MACQUIRE
R6/2 SO THE CAT SAID
R7/8 MAN IN THE MOON

FOR 'GOOD' TRACKS ONLY

Have a good day :-)

MACKAY IS DEAD.
TAKE OUT R6/3 LUX
OK R7/1 KADINSKI

Good Start.
So The Cat Said. $2.60 place on STab.
On holidays and a good start.

Keep up the good work
Neil

Hey, watch it mate. Some people might think it's just a tad boring living up here, but the town is far from dead. :D :D :D

Good start indeed. Man in the Moon is scratched.

Sport, you live in that town? Geez it brings back some memories of me seafaring days out of there. Those bleedin 30-40 knot Sou' wester trades that just go on and on and on for months.

Me and me mate waited 2 weeks to get out of port there in out 45 foot wooden schooner. We had a ton of supplies for that old ************ out on ...on ...on with the 100yr. lease [what are those 3 islands 100ks sth. west of Mackay?]. Anyway we thought ************ it and went for it [lucky to get out of that crappy chopy excuse for a port]. Oh what bliss tacking 100ks sth. west into a 30-40knot Sth.wester. Took us 5 days to get there with waves constantly sweeping the deck !!

Ah, the PERCY islands!! [This galloping Alzheimer's is really getting to me].

Oh what a magical place to live [and shoot wild goats for meat to stock up our supplies]. Is the old ************ still alive out there or has some crappy resort taken over the place?

Sorry mate, I have no idea who you're talking about.

You don't? [no sea in your blood:-)]. Do a google on the Percy islands. The old ************'s [can't think of his name] parents were the first on the place. Took a land rover over there on the deck of a small cruiser back in the 30's. An amazing story. The bloke I am referring to was an Olympic medalist in the triathlon [competed for England] when he was young. Lived there after his parents died well into his 70's [and may still be there].

TUESDAY 4TH APRIL

MACKA
R7/1 KADINSKI [w $2.72 p $1.22]

ALBANY
R5/4 FLYING CROWN [3nd. $1.75 and almost pinched it]

PORT MACQUIRE
R6/2 SO THE CAT SAID [2nd. $2.70]
R7/8 MAN IN THE MOON [Scr]

Outlay 4 units,. Return 5.67 units. Profit 1.67 unitys.

Plenty to get your teeth into here.

SANDOWN HILLSIDE
R2/8 LAST WALTZ
R3/6 EARLY AWAKENING
R6/2 EDGY AFFAIR
R7/10 ANAIS
R8/1 SILK WIND

WAWICK FARM
R3/5 SERIOUS MONEY
R7/7 EL MEROO

BALAKLAVA
R6/4 UNIVERSAL MAN

ASCOT
R3/7 FRED'S METAL
R7/2 TRIBAL WARRIOR
R8/11 STORMED

Wed. 5th. April.

SANDOWN HILLSIDE
R2/8 LAST WALTZ
R3/6 EARLY AWAKENING [w$9.36 p4$2.50]
Track downgraded to Dead 4 at the end of R3 and then Slow 6. No more bets here for me.

WAWICK FARM
R3/5 SERIOUS MONEY [w$2.23 p$1.53] win bet
R7/7 EL MEROO

ASCOT
R3/7 FRED'S METAL [w$2.79 p$1.42]
R7/2 TRIBAL WARRIOR
R8/11 STORMED [p$2.10]

BALAKLAVA
R6/4 UNIVERSAL MAN [p$1.74]

Hope some punters are taking e/w bets !!

Place Outlay 8 units. Return 9.29. Profit 1.29 units.

I have gone over all my bets here carefully and I have actually made a small loss on place bets. Following the system [page 1] for the first half of the bets was a downer and shaping up to be a slow but growing loss. Handicapping the bets and ignoring the system has improved the return. Not good for system buffs [not the one I used here anyway].

Total Outlay on all place bets has been 89 units.
Total Return has been 83.67. A loss of 5.33 units and considering the amount of 'action' I've had and the fact I am a very inexperienced place punter, I'm happy with the result so far.
Monitoring prices over different bet sites and betting at the last minute would definitely see a decent long term return on outlay here if profit was the sole objective. Monitoring last minute prices however, is not really my cup of tea.

Out of curiosity I have checked the win bets, although I have not been specifically handicapping for the win, just a winning chance and then backing the selections for the place..

Win results have been: 2..27, 6.50, 4.50, 9.36, 2.23, 11.11, 2.79, 2.72, 3.66, 1.72, 3.42, 4.59, 3.14, 13.35, 1.95, 1.64, 3.14, 2.15, 1.96, 9.41, 10.95, 4.00.
Outlay 89 units. Return: 106.56. Profit 17.56 .

So without even specifically handicapping for the win, the win bet is proving to be a better bet overall so far.

As far as Place betting is concerned, handicapping for runners to place only in my opinion would have been a big mistake. I would be considering too many outsiders [poor place odds for their win SP] which seems to be where most place punters are betting. Not a good move as the returns in that area are mostly pitiful when win SP and place SR for these runners is taken into account. Return for the place for w$3/5 SP runners is often more than for w$7/12 SP runners. The difference in SR offers serious loss potential in the above w$7 SP for place and e/w punters [IMHO :-) ].

Crash, personally I think you are doing better than you think, as a place bettor I went through some periods of doubt when treading water for months, but I am used to the "long term" pattern now, I've stopped counting how many 4ths I've backed, it all comes out in the wash over a LONG period of time, after a few 1000 bets on the spread sheet, a run of even 5 or 6 losers (very unusual) hardly makes blip on the overall situation.

As you have said many times, a system may have worked for 5 years and maybe not in the next year but then maybe yes the year after etc.

What it all comes down to is how comfortable you feel with your method of betting, in your case I know you enjoy handicapping for the win and that's what you have mastered. I used to do it I'm too much of a gambler at heart, so have to use control betting instead.

Plenty of 'control' here Party [not mine], The handbrake thumps me with a few of her Karate body blows [leaves no marks] regularly just to remind me of it !!

Actually as an inexperienced place punter I'm quite happy with the results so far and oh I still win bet don't worry about that and have had some very good collects from all the selections here so far, without skiteing about them every time they come up.

Thursday 6th April

GOSFORD

R1/2 SECRET TOM
R2/1 GLOBAL CROSSING
R7/6 BLUE PATRIACH
R8/1 COUNT OF EIGHT

Might be a few fro WA later. I'll have a peek after lunch if I have time.

Thursday 6th April

GOSFORD

R1/2 SECRET TOM [p1.85]
R2/1 GLOBAL CROSSING [unp]
R7/6 BLUE PATRIACH [unp]
R8/1 COUNT OF EIGHT [unp]

Not a good day with strong winds barreling down the course not helping.

Outlay 4 units Return 1.85 Loss 2.15

Roll on Sat.

No tips today with rain affected tracks and very strong winds where they are dry.

Tomorrow will have some goodies worth looking at and hopefully make up some units after a lousy day yesterday.

Saturday 8th. April.

Today I'm concentrating on the good place money available in the black tie races.
All the other metro tracks look stuffed weather wise. Lets see how we go:

ROSEHILL
R1/3 DANIELS THE MAN
R2/6 DENMARKET
R3/5 SEPIA [E/W?]
R4/12 AQUA D'AMORE
R6/1 PATEZZA
R7/2 CASINO PRINCE
R8/1 LOTTERIA
R9/4 MINDREADER

Tight reigns and good punting.

A few more to make an action packed day of it !

ASCOT
8/10 MAGIC HALL

CHELTENHAM [for good or dead track]
R5/13 BROCKERMAN'S LASS
R8/7 DENNING

MOONEE VALLEY [for good or dead track]
R1/3 VIRVACITY [hurdle]
R3/7 WINGS ON FIRE
R6/10 STRADDLE
R9/16 BEXAAR

Some decent odds among these. Maybe worth an e/w ticket on anything here with odds.

In the Syd. selections above Aqu D' Amour is in R5 the slipper of course.
Selection for R4/4 EMPRESS LILY.

The hurdler in Melb. is scratched.

Bexaar is scratched. Replacement is No 13 Special Number [e/w recommended as with Denning and Straddle]

So far nice e/w win on Wings on Fire at $15.10/$3.20..

Saturday 8th of April

ROSEHILL
R1/3 DANIELS THE MAN
R2/6 DENMARKET
R3/5 SEPIA [p1.74]
R4/4 EMPRESS LILY
R5/12 AQUA D'AMORE
R6/1 PATEZZA
R7/2 CASINO PRINCE
R8/1 LOTTERIA
R9/4 MINDREADER [p2.50]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ASCOT
8/10 MAGIC HALL

CHELTENHAM [for good or dead track]
R5/13 BROCKERMAN'S LASS [w2.40 p1.42]
R8/7 DENNING

MOONEE VALLEY [for good or dead track]
R3/7 WINGS ON FIRE[w15.10 p3.20]
R6/10 STRADDLE
R9/13 SPECIAL NUMBER

Outlay for place 15 units. Return 8.86 loss 6.14 units. Moral of the story? Stick to my own beliefs: 'Never back black tie races except for fun, they are a Bookie's picnic' [even for the place!]. I did back the Moonee Valley longshots e/w and Wings on Fire gave me a reasonable win overall on the day.

Monday 10th. April

Mildura
R2/4 MISS SINATRA
R6/3 BALDOCK
R7/2 IRISH VILLAGE

Moe
R4/5 BALTIC STORM
R6/4 CRESWINA
R7/2 DANAMAN

I forgot to add Moe is for tomorrow 11th April.

Mildura
R2/4 MISS SINATRA [p2.40]
R6/3 BALDOCK
R7/2 IRISH VILLAGE

Tough going. I think this place caper requires specialization and even it's own 'priceline' to bet to and monitoring prices up to the jump.
Outlay 3 units return 2.4. Loss 0.6 units.

I've changed to a better form guide. Hopefully my luck will change with it :-)
Ignore above Moe tips as one is scratched I know of and I've changed one of the selections. Good tracks I think but check these for scratchings and Track condt. Moe is a good track because it's just down the road and it's a very nice day here and will be there too.

Tuesday 11th. April
Moe
R4/6 Simply Sam
R5/3 Romantic Dane
R7/2 Danaman

Townsvillle
R2/2 Winaqua*
R4/3 Jazzoom
R5/4 Specially Made
R8/3 My Saladdin

Wyong
R7/3 Leica Light

I never managed to find time to put Wednesday's tips in [below] but I won't add them into totals. Tuesday QLD was abandoned and I had 1 place-getter at Moe [I'll put the price in later]. The copy and post from my new form site has a bit more info. worth adding.


Wed. 12th. March
Syd.
R4/4 Annjolino (6)[p]
R5/7 Savage Sevens (10)[p]
Bendigo
R7/1 Itsamonty (3) [sc]
-------------------------------------------------

Thurs. 13th.
Kembla grange
R2/3 Bedclothes(1) 54.0 4yo br g (R S Englebrecht at Warwick Farm) C Agnew

Terang
R8/7 Pindarri Affair * (8) 53.5 4yo gr m (M S Hibbs at Geelong) S Vella

Moonee valley
R2/5 In Fine Style(5) 54.5 4yo br m (G Portelli at Flemington) Craig Williams
R6/8 Itsamonty (4) 55.54yo ch g (D R Lawson at Flemington) Jocky ?

Looks like good tracks.

Thurs. 13th.
Kembla grange
R2/3 Bedclothes (1) 54.04yo br g (R S Englebrecht at Warwick Farm) C Agnew [p1.64]
Terang
R8/7 Pindarri Affair (8) 53.54yo gr m (M S Hibbs at Geelong) S Vella [w3.67/p1.53]

Moonee valley
R2/5 In Fine Style (5) 54.54yo br m (G Portelli at Flemington) Craig Williams
R6/8 Itsamonty (4) 55.54yo ch g (D R Lawson at Flemington) Jocky ? [p1.53]

Tues. R7/2 Danaman [p1.70]

Ranwick
R7/12 Three Chimneys
R8/9 Orpington

NZ
R5 Hasta La Ciao ciao
R8. Grani
R10 Korau Road

Caulfield
R7/5 Pinsemtoit

Eagle farm
R2/6 Buck's Secret
R5/3Mikan

Newcastle
R8/1 Red Valentino

Oakbank
R5/2 Lincoln Sea
R8/7 Aptitry
R9/1 Cool Response

Pioneer Park [NT]
R5/3 Fred In The Red

Devonport
R1/4 Phantomofthenight
R7/5 Miss Ambiguous
R7/10 Nuvolari

Ascot
R2/2 Foxy Boy.

Ellerslie
R9/9 Mybigfatgreekhorse
R6/5 Sir Sintillate

Nikita Berriman[a3kg] at Caulfield is worth a look at anything she is on.

Check for scratchings and suitable track condt.