Chuck

Don't know much about Grey Swallow but i have bought a share through the Aussie Syndicate in Honor In War. Aim was to run in the Cox Plate but is set for the Emirates. Has trained the house down and Danny O'Brien and Stephen Arnold are rapt - the lastest email to owners was that there is an air of confidence that it will run well. At 100/1 it is way overs. Has only missed prizemoney 4-5 times in its 36 race career. $100k for 8th sounds good to me.

Barrier 13 not an issue as it was to settle at the back anyway. Some of the leaders drawing wide a bonus as there is likely to be pace on early. Each way all day.

After Enirates will race in Hong Kong in December and come back in the Autumn after which it will go to stud in Aust.

I was looking forward to my first Cox Plate - now as an owner i am besides myself.

Good luck to all.

Good Luck Collingwood, had a mate who had a share (6%) of Sphenopyta and he could not sit down last week he was so excited..... hope this week goes quickly for you and HIW goes a few places better ! :cool:

Congrats Collingwood hope he runs well for you been hearing he is training exceptionally well don't know if this means they really feel it is a winning chance in this race or not but at the odds he might be worth something e/w anyway.

Thanks Stix & Raw

The feedback is that O'Brien would be disappointed if HIW did not run in the first 6 - especially with how the draw has gone for some of the leaders.

The aim however is the Emirates and they are confident that it will go close in that. I personally feel the drop back to 1600 from 2000 may be a problem but that hasn't been a concern to the trainer or the other owners.

Fingers crossed.

8-Racing To Win
13-Miss Finland
12-Aqua D'Amore
7-Our Smoking Joe
2-Fields Of Omagh

El Segundo
Aqua Damore
Fields Of Omagh
Red Dazzler
Racing to Win.

I will be boxing these 5 for all exotics. Given another pick if i had the cash i would throw in Miss Finland.

saved money there RD(with Miss F)I mean.

RACING TO WIN
OUR SMOKING JOE
EL SEGUNDO
POMPEII RULER/CASUAL PASS

El Segundo
Lad of the Manor

Racing To Win for me,it will beat the Australians at least.

This thing has heart,if it gets in a ****** fight its all over.

I'm imagining a Bonecrusher -Our Waverly Star type of war,just not sure who is going to fill the Our Waverly Star role,probably ES but could be the Swallow.

The word describing a member of the canine family gets filtered,thats a classic.

Read somewhere that Grey Swallow has performed very well (over distance) "first-up" in tha past.

my main bet so far is on Apache Cat but drawing the wide gate might have really cost him his chance one thing is for sure he will get every chance with Childs on board.

I also had a little e/w bet on Honor in War at the $71 being offered 2 nights ago just thought that was amazing odds.

As far as race day goes I will back someone else no idea who yet this is a tough race and any of them can win this call it an average field if you like but they are very close I feel especially if they run this along a bit.

Miss Finland and Pompeii Ruler quinella.

What odds D Gauci announcing his retirement if he flukes the Cox Plate on ES.Personally I think it is no hope as Gauci is riding like a 10kg apprentice at the moment.

But you never know your luck in a big city.

Go Racing To Win

Comments???

Al Segundo and Grey Swallow for the boxed exacta [GS to win?]

EL SEGUNDO will FLOP..........
 

so many queries in this plate... i reckon luck will aid in this.

selections:
1. MISS FINLAND:46kg! for this freak horse. But the jockey im edgy about..
2. RACING TO WIN: on form
3. AQUA D`AMORE huge run last start and Gai usually suprises...

i Reckon EL SEGUNDO, GREY SWALLOW, CASUAL PASS, APACHE CAT will all flop bigtime and not even make it in the top 3...

No suprises if FIELDS OF OMAGH , RED DAZZLER, LAD OF THE MANOR, go close....

Wouldnt put the house on it though... i dont have a good strike rate lately...

still with:

Lad of the Manor
El Segundo

seems david moodie agrees :eek:

G'day all,
El Segundo with blinkers.
Racing To Win and Miss Finland are the real deal but, one run too many?
THE REST IS HYPE IMO

I wish you well... but I think even those odds are skinny... I only have form for its last 5 starts... and in its last 2 G1 races it has been beaten a sum of 12 lengths.. 8th out of 10 ad 6th out of 8...

Good luck with it tho

Current Market

EL SEGUNDO 3.50 1.55
RACING TO WIN 3.50 1.55
GREY SWALLOW 9.00 2.77
MISS FINLAND 10.00 3.00
LAD OF THE MANOR 13.00 3.66
POMPEII RULER 15.00 4.11
RED DAZZLER 18.00 4.77
FIELDS OF OMAGH 21.00 5.44
OUR SMOKING JOE 21.00 5.44
AQUA DAMORE 26.00 6.55
CASUAL PASS 26.00 6.55
APACHE CAT 31.00 7.66
HONOR IN WAR 35.00 8.55

As the market suggest EL Segundo the one to beat.

Racing To Win won't be suited MV but has improved so much this campaign that he should be a big danger.

Miss Finland with her featherweight must rate a mention.

Outside these 3 the rest of the field look pretty even.
Lad Of The Manor luvs the valley & should give a great sight e/w.

I wouldn't be wiping Lad Of The Manor out of this. Only beaten once from 6 starts at the Valley [by Makybe Deva last year] and last start was tightened for room and checked in the running.
4 starts in now [needs that for a 7yr. old], so will be at peek fitness tomorrow as will Casual Pass with 5 runs in from a spell, likes the track and with 4 wins from 6 over this distance, can't be ignored. From b11 Casual Pass should head across and join the other 2 leaders in this, Apache Cat and Our Smoking Joe.

Grey Swallow recently changed hands for $6m and has won 5 from 5 first up around this distance [and more], so a bit hard to handicap here for MV . Had a couple of unsuitable runs because the horse likes the pace on [races on the pace] according to the trainer and will have that here for sure. From b1 can settle just off the 3 leaders and then should make it's usual drawing away run that might be just too hard to catch.

Adjusted times makes Honor in War [USA] a VERY quick horse over this distance and the O'Brien/Arnold combo is something to be wary of.
So a big question mark over the Yankee as with Miss Finland and RTW who have never raced beyond 1600m. Apache Cat tried it last start [beyond 1600m] and did no good.

El Segundo will come from behind, has the runs on the board for the track and distance and I'm ignoring his last run. My main pick here, but there are unknown values in this race [except the poor odds that will be on offer for El Segundo] that can't be really be handicapped. I'll be betting on the 2 value OS horses to win and having a couple of exotics.

Good luck to all on Sat.

Add Grey Swallow. Looking at his O/S form have to have a saver.

Winning the tough [2 big up-hills in it] ********** Derby certainly puts Grey Swallow in this as the Cox is a [truly run] tough WFA race for tough horses [only], with MV having it's own up-hill to the finish. If the same horse comes out tomorrow that came out for the Derby, it'll will win by lengths [paraphrasing Lee Freedman's comments about the horse].

Miss Finland as a 3yr old is trying to do something only done once before 30yrs. ago. Carrying 46k [with a half-starved kiwi lass on board] won't make the horse go any faster than carrying 50 -55kg. Linda Cropp is a great NZ jockey but she is in unfamiliar territory here riding against Australia's best jockeys on their home turf on a quirky track. She also has had to lose 3kg for this.

The way I see it, It'll all be in the running and who gets the right breaks at the right time from about 5 serious contenders: Casual Pass, Grey Swallow, El Segundo, Lad of the Manor or Pompeii Ruler.

I.R.I.S.H is a banned word ?

Nobody tipping Aqua D'amore nor Fields Of Omagh?

Here's what I sent to a mate earlier....

I'm looking at Fields Of Omagh as an eachway bet for the Cox Plate myself, as although he is old, he is sound, and the only horse in the race that's proven at the Valley in the Class. His last run was just behind them, so I think he's fit enough.

Miss Finland will probably try tear away tactics again to try and win, but I think she'll be swamped.

Racing To Win and El Segundo should be making their runs around the same time as Fields Of Omagh, I think they might find the turn at the Valley hard.

I do not think Grey Swallow can win first up in this class at a track he's never raced on. It takes a very classy but fit horse to win a Cox Plate.

I also think El Segundo poor value at the odds quoted.

In summary for the Cox Plate, I think the value lies here:

Racing To Win
Fields Of Omagh
Aqua D'Amore

Glen Boss is the master at Group 1 level and he has a very good horse under him.

Craig Williams is riding Fields of Omagh for the Hayes camp and they've opted to put Lisa Cropp on Miss Finland because of weight. Although Craig Williams botches a few rides, he will be desperate to win this.

Kieren Fallon, the champion English jockey is on Aqua D'Amore, this horse keeps on surprising at good odds, and also keeps on improving.

For what it's worth ;)

P.S. At this point I'd be prepared to stick my neck out and say both Miss Finland and El Segundo won't run a place.

I'd agree Chrome about Miss Finland not placing. A gut buster last start and the one before when she bolted and certainly has gone past her peak this prep. And your right too about Aqua D' amore [I should have made that 6 serious contenders in my post above].
The Turnbull was a good run and has a 2 1/2kg advantage in this. RTW won't find this a sit and sprint and is a big question mark at the distance in this tough affair and deserves far better odds.

I wouldn't worry about Grey Swallow being first up though. Delta Blues [Jap. trainer] carrying top weight didn't do a bad job 'first up' last week and almost stole the Caulfield Cup !

As for 'class', Demott Weld described Grey Swallow as one of the best horses he has ever trained and Lee Freedman rates the horse as in the worlds top 5 [Melb. Age today] and the horse to beat that handles any condt. or tracks.

Field of Omagh though has the same problem as Miss Finland ...History. One horse being too young and the other too old. FOO is now 9yrs. old and trying to win the Cox Plate. Sure he has a chance and is a tough horse, but I don't think he is over the odds the bookies have on him around 15/1.

Miracles do happen though and either horse might win [or anything else in the race too] !

Amended selections
Grey Swallow
Racing to Win
Our Smoking Joe
Pompeii Ruler
Boxed Tri for $.5

Genius or Madness......
 

24Oct06 3:43:05 PM	AAA100D36D-18928899 RACES	HONOR IN WAR MOONEE VALLEY Race 7	50.00	IFX PrePost Win @ 71.000	AUD -50.00	U
24Oct06 3:43:04 PM	3AA108C32C-18928898 RACES	HONOR IN WAR MOONEE VALLEY Race 7	50.00	IAS-SP Place	AUD -50.00	U

Personally.... I'm leaning towards the later....

Didn't they say that about Vinnie Rowe?

Your second point is the one that always has me interested in this game, the unbelievable does happen, and more often the unthinkable ;)

As for stats, you know I love 'em, but I think when comparing past winners of "a race" they have to go out the window to some extent.

Should be an great spectacle whatever the outcome, I'm really looking forward to this year for some reason, it has a lot of different elements which will duly unfold.

I certainly won't be leaving FOO out of my trifecta. He has been trained JUST for this race this prep. and will peak tomorrow for sure. If he can pull this off as a 9yr. old ... what a horse!

Gotta love this comment [you know from where] :-)

-Chaff Bandits Day Out-
"Have a look at the Cox Plate day fields tomorrow at Moonee Valley and you’d need a glue factory train to take the slow ones away".

Concerning one race:

''.......The race is so bad you should watch out the corner of your eye for the ambulance, or the Clerk of the Course’s 20-year-old grey to fly home and run a place. Surely to God they can get a better bunch of bandits than that, when $300,000 is up for grabs". :-))

IMO what is going to make this yrs cox plate a great race is the fact that you could argue a point for any horse in the field. There is no standout certainty. Last yr you had to ask which of these horses could beat the diva, and going through the form and the race list you couldnt have come up with many. Im really looking forward to this race tomorrow, there might not be an out and out champion jumping from the gates at 3.30, but i bet there will be as whichever horse crosses the line first.

I'll be ecstatic if he pulls a placing, which I think he can. If he wins, I'll be off on holidays for a while :D

How about this one:

"On the Cox Plate I find it amazing how some people actually believe that Miss Finland can win. I give her no hope of winning as per my recent article of 19/10/06 entitled “Miss Finland wouldn’t win a Cox Plate if she started now”. How so may supposedly learned people can read her so wrongly is beyond belief. They all said what a great win it was the other day in the Thousand Guineas. What a lot of rot, because except for a short half head, she’d have a 100% success rate at failure in three tries at 1600 metres. She cannot run 1600 metres this filly, so how the hell can she run 2040 metres against all age horses? Now let me ask all the experts who are tipping her one question. She beat Permaiscuous by one inch the other day and she got run down over 1600 by She Will Be Loved the start before and before that she beat stablemate Anamato a neck in the Tranquil Star Stakes. Now would anyone fancy backing any of Permaiscuous, She Will Be Loved or Anamato to win a Cox Plate? No, even the mob at Nimbin don’t get that high during a normal day"!

I'm with you Horse Whisperer, it has the excitement element of anticipation.

As for champion, Racing To Win hasn't done much wrong, Miss Finland has come up the year after winning the big one, which is quite rare, and El Segundo has been proved vulnerable. I lean towards RTW as the future standout.

If Miss Finland pulls it off, she will amaze me beyond belief.

"AQUA D’AMORE
Enigmatic mare who can look like Phar Lap or Radish. Last week and the start before she looked like Phar Lap, so tomorrow by the law of averages she’ll probably look like Radish".

G'day again crash,

Not saying I disagree with the author, but I think his argument does have some flawed logic.

1. A short half head makes all the difference, ask the jockey of any champion horse, especially the likes of Octagonal or Northerly.

2. She's won at 1600m, does that mean she can't run out 2040m?
We don't know, I doubt it too, but we don't know.
She can run 1600m - she won!

3. Leave the folks at Nimbim out of this, I think the authors been picking mushrooms :D
It doesn't matter what ran second to her, it's not what she beat - it's what ran behind her - there's an important difference in terminology and assessment. What matters is the class and distance of the race.

But I still don't think she will run a place, just pointing out some weird logic.

Added: What does worry me is that she's never raced at the Valley for starters.
Also she had two tries at 1600m and won one of them as a 3yo, and lost by less than a length as a 2yo filly. The other 1600m trip was actually 1610m and she was beaten less than a length - 10m = ???

So three starts at 1600m (if ya like), and not ran worse than 0.8L of a length from the winner. To say she can't run 1600m is ridiculous. :P

I'm not going into bat for the Author.
His arguments are often full of holes [I remember him bagging 5 horses in 5 races at Bris. one day and 4 of them won and the 5th. just missed by a nose!]. Personally. I think when it comes to picking winners he is as bad [worse] as the rest of us. The guy is a good read though.

I just like the banter.
His Letter of Apology from the Prime Minister of Aust. to the NZ Prime Minister for bringing Linda Cropp over here to ride Miss Finland is a bottler and worth reading [click on his link] !

LOL :D I love it!