5/6 again. Oh well, if you must miss out on one it is preferable for it to be a 10/11 favourite :) .


Don't like you blokes being bright and bushy-tailed at 1.00 a.m.!! I need my sleep.

Yes that Rowdy Yeats has won twice in two days now. It was the danger runner of the bunch, but we finished with a tidy profit.

Are you laying these Merriguy? Laying each regardless of price, or pricing them up somehow?



It's not so good at this part of the day :(

I'd be very interested in that price conversion, if you can give me a hint to which forum it's on.

Things are ticking along nicely, but I'm still struggling with the apparent anomaly of Australian price movements versus every other country.
I'm starting to think (can't prove it) that by comparison Australian horseracing markets are tiny, therefore any movement by "informed" money
has a greater chance of being correct, than price swings in big markets.

Not sure why, how, or whether it's just a perception, but this has been going on for many months now.

It's time to take notice and really start doing the reverse of what I do overseas on aussie markets.

I posted some time ago on this, and whenever there's money for a horse, they just seem to win, I cannot get profitable lay bets at any price!

There were 10 in a row the other week at various venues. (Favourites only that firmed on Betfair).

Hi Chrome et al

They're talking about the UK markets but if you yahoo'd for

"using sp odds for forcasting"

you'd find it. Doesn't appear in Google for some reason.

Also you'll find an intersting piece on

"bayesian inferencing systems"

which is what I was getting at here

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...46&postcount=11



Yes I agree with you here. In the UK and here in OZ I'm basically using the same methodology to arrive at my lay selections. It's still a bit early to reach any conclusions in the UK but it doesn't look like I'll get the same strike rate as here in Australia. I believe this is due primarily to me using a minimum and maximum lay price for my Australian lays. Before going live in Australia I observed the same trend you describe. By passing on the shorteners I've managed a 6-7%* better strike rate than I'm currently getting in the UK. The downside of this is that my Australian average SP is higher, and the POT and advantage** are lower. But it's quite mature now and is currently showing only a 2% chance of success due to luck. At this stage I've no plans to introduce a minimum lay price in the UK.

The UK Betfair markets are very sophisticated and are starting to interest me a great deal. I think what we're seeing here in Australia is a lack of uninformed money in the Betfair markets, or too many avenues to investment, or a combination of both. There was a short conversation about the Australian Betfair markets on Betfair radio last night between races. Andy (the on duty "pundit", who really know's his stuff BTW) hinted at a big increase in liquidity in the Australian Betfair markets by years end. I've no idea what he bases that comment on but let's hope anyway.

Have a good one.

* Come and get me "Punting Gods"
** I've not actually worked out my UK advantage yet, but it'll be more.

Results: March 20th
 

A really excellent night from Don at The Daily Donkey. He's crossed the 10,000 profit point for the month so tread a little carefully, as he's only posted a monthly +10,000 profit four times. We did pretty well also, but at this stage the Donkey's are swamping us.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070320-0110 Warwick - Just Supposin ... LOST +1.00
20070320-0120 Exeter - Another Gale ... LOST +1.00
20070320-0240 Warwick - Rowdy Yeats ... WON -1.10
20070320-0250 Exeter - Anshabil ... LOST +1.00
20070320-0310 Warwick - Ceoperk ... LOST +1.00
20070320-0330 Southwell - Macademy Royal ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 20th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 92
Successful Selections: 79
Strike Rate: 85.86%
Profit: +23.07 units
Commission @ 5%: -3.95 units
Net Profit: +19.12 units
Net POT: 20.78%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 461
Successful Selections: 355
Strike Rate: 77.00%
Profit: +56.34 units
Commission @ 5%: -17.75 units
Net Profit: +38.59 units
Net POT: 8.37%

Hi Pixie

Are you paying for the Donkey lays?
If so, it's very generous of you to list them here.

How much does Don bet, and over what period has he topped $10000 profit?

Hi Mark

No the lays are listed for free here

w w w dot dailydonkey dot com

I don't know Don at all. I just picked his name up from the site. He's staking 100 on each and I think he's posted a monthly 10,000 profit four times over about four years. I suspect what's happening is that he lays them early, posts them on his web site, them trades them when they blow in the market. He's very consistent but you'd struggle to profit if you layed them all as he lists his results at SP. That's what this whole exercise is about really. Picking and choosing to make his selections turn a profit.

Do you think summarising his results is the wrong thing to do? Just trying to show a comparison.

Ok thanks for that.
When do they put the lays up?

Do you think summarising his results is the wrong thing to do? Just trying to show a comparison.

No, not at all. How do you determine which ones you lay as opposed to laying the lot?
Like Michael, I've been testing another lay system. It's on UK races and last night selected 4 that were all unplaced. I'll post them here later.

Cheers
Mark

They are usually all there by 11:30pm but one or two do pop up after that.



Well that's the secret isn't it ;)



Excellent. More the merrier.

Tonights UK lays. QLD times. With current lay price.

Chep 0.10 In The Lead 4.10
Chep 2.20 City Streets 5.50

Ling 0.50 Lindop 5.40
Ling 2.00 Bible Lord 5.20

Kemp 1.05 Savoy Chapel 4.50
Kemp 1.35 Black Oval 6.60
Kemp 2.10 Firework 8.00
Kemp 2.40 Methaaly 10.50 (probably too long)
Kemp 3.10 Annemasse 4.50
Kemp 3.40 Speagle 5.90

Selection: March 21st
 

Quiet night from me tonight with two selections only.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070321-0300 Lingfield - Bible Lord
20070321-0330 Lingfield - Captain's Legacy

Mark

We've both found Bible Lord. Maybe we should consider this one a special :)

Hope it goes well. Your lays, not Bible Lord.

or ... maybe not.

Rotten 6/1 horse :mad:

Results: March 21st
 

An awful night for UK layers. Bible Lord blew on Betfair from 4.80 to over 8 in what seemed like five minutes, yet won like the best of things :mad:

Date-Time Course - Name
20070321-0300 Lingfield - Bible Lord ... WON -6.00
20070321-0330 Lingfield - Captain's Legacy ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 21st

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 94
Successful Selections: 80
Strike Rate: 85.10%
Profit: +18.07 units
Commission @ 5%: -4.00 units
Net Profit: +14.12 units
Net POT: 15.02%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 489
Successful Selections: 375
Strike Rate: 76.68%
Profit: +48.51 units
Commission @ 5%: -18.75 units
Net Profit: +29.76 units
Net POT: 6.08%

I should be a tipster!!!
-6.10
Don't know about you Pixie, but my markets wouldn't load last night and are still not working this morning, so no damage done.

At least the Daily Donkey did the worst with a -7.83. Give it another go tonight Mark. First time out this was bound to happen.

Hi guys

I went it alone --- can't stay up as long as you blokes. Only had the two bets --- Aux le Bahnn at Ling and Super Martina ant Chep. The first won, of course! Super M lost.

Mark, I had trouble loading things this morning earlier on. It seems to be working O.K. now.

Merriguy

Yep bad night all around. Unfortunately I'd priced Bible Lord at $4.80 and got that matched, and was feeling quite smug with myself when it blew so much. It never looked like getting beaten. :(

Maybe I should have twigged that we were in for a tough one when I only turned up two selections. There's always tonight :)

Selections: March 22nd
 

Busier night tonight.

Good luck.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070322-0100 Ludlow - Little Venus
20070322-0120 Ayr - Eriskay
20070322-0300 Ludlow - Golden Feather
20070322-0330 Ludlow - Mouseski
20070322-0350 Ayr - Time To Roam
20070322-0350 Ayr - Le Rouge Fatal

Results: March 22nd
 

Not bad. Still working to get a win free night.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070322-0100 Ludlow - Little Venus ... LOST +1.00
20070322-0120 Ayr - Eriskay ... LOST +1.00
20070322-0300 Ludlow - Golden Feather ... LOST +1.00
20070322-0330 Ludlow - Mouseski ... WON -2.75
20070322-0350 Ayr - Time To Roam ... LOST +1.00
20070322-0350 Ayr - Le Rouge Fatal ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 22nd

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 100
Successful Selections: 85
Strike Rate: 85.00%
Profit: +20.32 units
Commission @ 5%: -4.25 units
Net Profit: +16.07 units
Net POT: 16.07%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 528
Successful Selections: 404
Strike Rate: 76.51%
Profit: +53.89 units
Commission @ 5%: -20.20 units
Net Profit: +33.69 units
Net POT: 6.38%

Chrome

Used these equations last night with some success. Have you had a look?

Hi AP,

Yes very interesting and thanks for pointing me to it.
Generally, my range is favourites only, so it's not as critical for me, but certainly it would be of great help in pricing anything that wasn't short in the market. I find that setting my percentages just short of the professionals is a good way to go for me. That way I know I haven't made an error. (overall)

Selections: March 23rd
 

Lots of lays tonight.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070323-0050 Wolverhampton - Bobering
20070323-0120 Wolverhampton - Postmaster
20070323-0140 Newbury - Carlitos
20070323-0250 Newbury - Tisseman
20070323-0250 Newbury - Go Solo
20070323-0340 Wolverhampton - Blushing Russian
20070323-0400 Newbury - Fleet Street
20070323-0400 Newbury - Priors Dale
20070323-0410 Wolverhampton - Bay Boy

doh
 

carlitos horse in point??

No selections tonight
 

Sorry. Have other commitments. Last nights results to follow.

Results: March 23rd
 

We're not breaking any speed records but steady forward progress is better than none at all I figure.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070323-0050 Wolverhampton - Bobering ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0120 Wolverhampton - Postmaster ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0140 Newbury - Carlitos ... WON -1.10
20070323-0250 Newbury - Tisseman ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0250 Newbury - Go Solo ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0340 Wolverhampton - Blushing Russian ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0400 Newbury - Fleet Street ... WON -4.50
20070323-0400 Newbury - Priors Dale ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0410 Wolverhampton - Bay Boy ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 23rd

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 109
Successful Selections: 92
Strike Rate: 84.40%
Profit: +21.72units
Commission @ 5%: -4.60 units
Net Profit: +17.12 units
Net POT: 15.70%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 562
Successful Selections: 430
Strike Rate: 76.51%
Profit: +48.33 units
Commission @ 5%: -21.50 units
Net Profit: +26.83 units
Net POT: 4.77%

Selections: March 25th
 

Here we go with the last week. There will be no selections next Saturday March 31st so this thread will end this coming Friday, March 30th.

Good luck.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070325-0010 Taunton - Bob Bites Back
20070325-0040 Taunton - Mister Knight
20070325-0100 Southwell - Symbiosis
20070325-0110 Taunton - Man Of Mine
20070325-0140 Taunton - Swansea Bay
20070325-0140 Taunton - Yes My Lord
20070325-0210 Taunton - Garleton

AP,

Well done with your efforts, you've beaten that stubborn donkey on POT, but he's bucked you off with higher dollar profit. But not by a great deal, your risk is lower.
One thing that does worry me is using the SP price minus 5% commission, on some lays you may never have been matched and on others matched at much lower prices. How do you know for accuracy?
I think you've done a tremendous job, not too many post lay systems here.
Keep up the good work.

Results: March 25th
 

We were very clever and managed to tip two non-runners. That takes a lot of skill :rolleyes: Not a bad night other than that.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070325-0010 Taunton - Bob Bites Back ... NON RUNNER
20070325-0040 Taunton - Mister Knight ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0100 Southwell - Symbiosis ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0110 Taunton - Man Of Mine ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0140 Taunton - Swansea Bay ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0140 Taunton - Yes My Lord ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0210 Taunton - Garleton ... NON RUNNER

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 25th*

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 114
Successful Selections: 97
Strike Rate: 85.08%
Profit: +26.72units
Commission @ 5%: -4.85 units
Net Profit: +21.87 units
Net POT: 19.18%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 594
Successful Selections: 455
Strike Rate: 76.59%
Profit: +54.42 units
Commission @ 5%: -22.75 units
Net Profit: +31.67 units
Net POT: 5.33%

* Excludes Saturday 24th March

Thanks Chrome it's been an enjoyable exercise but I wouldn't like trying to make a living from being a tipster. Look's as though I've managed to pick a trial month where the Daily Donky selections are going to finish above 10,000 profit!* Just luck I guess :mad:



Yes I know there are problems there but it's more for illustrative purposes than for accuracy. I'm using SP for ease of comparison with the way the Daily Donkey display their results. As you say there are times when the selections don't get matched, and in fact you'd have missed a number of the "accidents" if you'd priced them up around the Racing Post PP. You'd have missed a number of our successes too, but you'd be doing better than the results posted here.

What I'll do at the end of the week is average the "accident" SP's out and use that SP to BF equation do display a projected BF matched price. With Donkey's 132 "accidents" things should even up quite a bit. I know this is not ideal but for the purposes of the exercise (quality over quantity) it's probably good enough.



Thanks again, but let's not forget the great stuff Michaelg get's up to.

* I'd like to think that the Daily Donkey team are lurking here and that they've picked up their game. ;)

Selections: March 26th
 

Only three lay selections tonight.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070326-0020 Plumpton - Tommy Carson
20070326-0130 Stratford - Blazing Guns
20070326-0230 Stratford - Atouchbetweenacara

Results: March 26th
 

We gave some back last night. Daily Donkey also posted a loss. There wasn't much laying value around so if you'd framed your prices around the Racing Post PP you may have struggled to lay anything.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070326-0020 Plumpton - Tommy Carson ... WON -6.00
20070326-0130 Stratford - Blazing Guns ... LOST +1.00
20070326-0230 Stratford - Atouchbetweenacara ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 26th*

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 117
Successful Selections: 99
Strike Rate: 84.61%
Profit: +22.72 units
Commission @ 5%: -4.95 units
Net Profit: +17.77 units
Net POT: 15.18%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 625
Successful Selections: 478
Strike Rate: 76.48%
Profit: +50.21 units
Commission @ 5%: -23.90 units
Net Profit: +26.31 units
Net POT: 4.20%

* Excludes Saturday 24th March

Selections: March 27th
 

All the best.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070327-2300 Wolverhampton - Only If I Laugh
20070327-2320 Wolverhampton - Mange Tout
20070327-2330 Wolverhampton - Prince Of Gold
20070327-0030 Wolverhampton - Devon Flame
20070327-0050 Sedgefield - Reasonably Sure
20070327-0200 Wolverhampton - Desert Lover

Results: March 27th
 

A pleasing result for everybody.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070327-2300 Wolverhampton - Only If I Laugh ... LOST +1.00
20070327-2320 Wolverhampton - Mange Tout ... LOST +1.00
20070327-2330 Wolverhampton - Prince Of Gold ... LOST +1.00
20070327-0030 Wolverhampton - Devon Flame ... LOST +1.00
20070327-0050 Sedgefield - Reasonably Sure ... LOST +1.00
20070327-0200 Wolverhampton - Desert Lover ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 27th*

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 123
Successful Selections: 105
Strike Rate: 85.36%
Profit: +28.72 units
Commission @ 5%: -5.25 units
Net Profit: +23.47 units
Net POT: 19.08%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 665
Successful Selections: 509
Strike Rate: 76.54%
Profit: +61.73 units
Commission @ 5%: -25.45 units
Net Profit: +36.28 units
Net POT: 5.45%

* Excludes Saturday 24th March

Selections: March 28th
 

Have a good one :)

Date-Time Course - Name
20070328-0025 Kempton - Penny Park
20070328-0100 Kempton - Cusp
20070328-0110 Towcester - Talikos
20070328-0135 Kempton - Marfinca
20070328-0205 Kempton - Spring Margot

5/5 --- You're cooking with gas :)

I hope it's not methane.

Results: March 28th
 

Another ok night. Prepare your gas masks for a stinker.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070328-0025 Kempton - Penny Park ... LOST +1.00
20070328-0100 Kempton - Cusp ... LOST +1.00
20070328-0110 Towcester - Talikos ... LOST +1.00
20070328-0135 Kempton - Marfinca ... LOST +1.00
20070328-0205 Kempton - Spring Margot ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 28th*

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 128
Successful Selections: 110
Strike Rate: 85.93%
Profit: +33.72 units
Commission @ 5%: -5.50 units
Net Profit: +28.22 units
Net POT: 22.04%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 699
Successful Selections: 536
Strike Rate: 76.68%
Profit: +69.73 units
Commission @ 5%: -26.80 units
Net Profit: +42.93 units
Net POT: 6.14%

* Excludes Saturday 24th March

Selections: March 29th
 

Two nights to go. Good luck.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070329-0000 Towcester - Fontanesi
20070329-0010 Hereford - City Streets
20070329-0030 Towcester - Denvale
20070329-0040 Hereford - Notaproblem
20070329-0110 Hereford - Levallois
20070329-0140 Hereford - Foly Pleasant
20070329-0210 Hereford - Definite Dancer

Results: March 30th
 

Small half unit "accident" over night. The two late scratchings didn't help us. The Daily Donkey seems to be powering ahead.

Tonight is the last night of selections.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070329-0000 Towcester - Fontanesi ... LOST +1.00
20070329-0010 Hereford - City Streets ... LOST +1.00
20070329-0030 Towcester - Denvale ... WON -4.50
20070329-0040 Hereford - Notaproblem ... LOST +1.00
20070329-0110 Hereford - Levallois ... LOST +1.00
20070329-0140 Hereford - Foly Pleasant ... NON RUNNER
20070329-0210 Hereford - Definite Dancer ... NON RUNNER

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 29th*

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 133
Successful Selections: 114
Strike Rate: 85.71%
Profit: +33.22 units
Commission @ 5%: -5.70 units
Net Profit: +27.52 units
Net POT: 20.69%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 740
Successful Selections: 570
Strike Rate: 77.02%
Profit: +80.04 units
Commission @ 5%: -28.50 units
Net Profit: +51.54 units
Net POT: 6.96%

* Excludes Saturday 24th March