Basically I look for very high class heavily supported horses and get the very best price I can.

So far it's working better than I ever expected, I never even considered I'd be able to get 29% (and much better) prices on such hot contenders.

Thank heavens for traders pushing prices ;)

ahh so thats why bookmakers have been doing it so hard for all these decades...

so i guess when i lay my rated 10/1 shot at $7.50 what i have actually done is "outperform the market by more than 19%"

never looked at it that way but it has a nice ring to it.

To win either backing or laying, you must outperform the market by more than the overround.

The bookies do it easily, because they continually outperform the market by their set margins.

To outperform the market laying horses at close to 100% market and 5% commission is the stuff of hercules. ;)

oh well, were all doomed & ive been living one hell of a delusion of late

now where me shotty...

Hercules Banana
 

Granted it's not as easy as almost everybody thinks but with the right angle ...

That's what I'm trying to say.

When Betfair first started, everyone thought "lay horses, how easy is this?"
But laying horses on Betfair is like betting into tote pools, the odds are that far against you.
Horses do trade at below the true price, but often because there's been a solid move on course.

It can be done, it can be beaten, all I'm saying is that it is a great deal harder than betting to win with the market persentages.

But hey, I shouldn't complain, I got done badly laying horses and others might not.

Currently I'm sitting at 34% POT backing them, and haven't had a losing day since switching :)

Vive la Différence!

I was only ever able to get to 9.50% POT laying very selectively, now I'm at 34% POT (after commission) backing every single favourite in every single country and up to over 2,000 bets so far.

(Actually not every single one, perhaps one in ten I don't get matched on and let it go through at poor odds).

The main difference is the $$$ profit, because I can turnover nearly ten times the lay amount, backing non selectively, the POT is just a minor difference by comparison.

How good's this!!!

:D

P.S.

Bring on Perth, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Vic Harness racing, etc etc.

34%. Nice, well done.

Thanks for sharing your findings Chrome.

Do you take any notice of the TAB fav or do you just focus on the Betfair Fav?

I too have noticed massive differences between the TAB Fav & the betfair Fav.

There was one last week that was TAB Fav at $3.60 & was $8.00 on betfair & it won... Struth!

One stratergy that has shown some promise is to target the TAB 1st & 2nd favs, 2 min till jump & bet it with Betfair if one can get 25% more with Betfair.

Simple multiply the TAB price by 1.25
e.g. TAB $2.80 x 1.25 = $3.50 needed from Betfair.

It is amazing, how many, one can get set .

The SR is pretty good most days.

I feel every one should try this exercise, even if its only on paper, just to show how much the avereage Australian punter is & has been ripped off by the TABs.

Cheers.

Hi, Chrome Prince.

Are you saying that you back every (almost) Betfair Fave for a 34% POT? If so, this seems extremely generous because I think it may have been Wesmip1 who stated on this forum that backing every Betfair fave over a certain extensive period produced a 4 or 5% POT. I'm not aware if this took into account Betfair's takeout.

Assuming that backing the TAB fave has an overall loss of 15%, that would mean that to break-even on the TAB a $3.00 TAB winner should hypothetically be approx $3.45 (15% X $3.00). Then to obtain a further 34% on Betfair, the price would be approximately $4.62 which does not include Betfair's takeout. I have seen many instances where this is reality but it's difficult to believe it can be sustained over a long period.

Do you back the fave at the death? I think more often than not that the fave, especially the pronounced ones, firm at the end of betting.

As a matter of interest, I have just looked at Sapphire Coast R2 where the fave coinicidentally won. NSW TAB divvy was $3.50 and the last trade on Betfair was $4.10 ($3.90 taking into account the 5% reduction). Looking at the graph, the $4.10 price was about the shortest available which as mentioned, was at the death. So, the chances are that a much better price could easily have been achieved.

Interestingly, BAT shows the winner at $3.95 which I have been informed that this does not include Betfair's takeout. If Wesmip1 got his figures from BAT that might explain why his POT is lower than yours.

For anyone rushing to emulate CP's alleged 34% by blindly backing Betfair favourites.

According to BAT Australian data of nearly 8,000 markets:

Backing Betfair favourites gives a 96% ROT. After which you need to subtract commission.

BAT, like SP, or TAB price = waste of time.

BAT is useless..

a) often the figure are immensely wrong.
Horse trades last at $3.50, reported as $1.34

b)BAT gives the very last traded price.

C)BAT gives Betfair favourite, not bookie favourite at OPENING.

d)BAT does not record what was available beforehorse was backed in.

This all adds up to 34% after commission.

Download the Betfair historical data and take the median price traded for the worse case scenario.

I've often been matched at up to 40% better than the last traded price.

This is where backtesting falls down a little, you never asked for a price, so you never got it and it never traded.

I have asked for ridiculous prices on horses that I never expected to get matched on and got matched 5 times.

I need to clarify that horses that trade below what I consider value to me, I let go, but that would be less than 10% of them.

At some point nearly all trade at my required price, because I asked for it.

There are massive variations or fluctuations on betfair prices that can be taken advantage of.

Also, some favourites do not end up as favourite, so I get those winners too.

The assessed odds maybe $2.50 favourite, but it might trade at $4.50 second favourite.

Hi Chrome,
Can you say what assessed ratings market you look at.

Cheers.