I don't understand.
99% of my betting is on the top 3 of my rated animals as well, yet I have plenty of bets.
Are you saying that your top 3 animals are always over what the bookies are giving?
Unless your system is directly linked to the bookmakers prices, this is not possible.
I set my markets using the form guide.
And I do it a day before the race is run.
You obviously must be doing it 3 minutes before race time.

You nailed it Moeee,I rarely place a bet until the horses are going into the barriers.

I would never frame a market against pre-post odds.

Then again :) I'm retired and can afford myself this luxury.

The market I do frame is around 120% it keeps me in the reality zone.In other words I get the prices I expect to get,,as against prices I hope to get.

There are downsides to looking for that standout classy nag, which include for me a).not too many bets availalble and b). I often end up on the favourite. The big upside is an extremely high SR and therefore the ability to take fairly low odds and still smile.[/QUOTE]

Yup,TWOBETS,,,yesterday I had one bet at Geelong,it sometimes works out that way.Other days over two meetings I may have half a dozen bets.

Recently I was trawling through the Gambling Forum and came across this contribution from our friend Wesmip.

QUOTE=wesmip1]










The penny has finally dropped.... "Value" simply means finding better odds...

I was labouring under the misapprehension that "Value" involved calculating ridiculous prices around your selections and hoping that the tooth fairy comes to the party and gives you $10 against the $2 being offered to the mugs.

Whew,silly me,,,I thought people were setting 80% markets around their selections when all the time they were happy to grab $2.10 instead of meekly accepting a lousy $2.

Turns out I have been a "value" punter for years.

It's certainly true that in real world markets it's possible to "do better" and with todays technology at our fingertips we can squeeze a few more drops out of the lemon.Long live value!!!!

Has any one considered the idea of using their rated prices set at 120%, if the price on offer is 40% greater than the rated price.

Cheers.

Bhagwan in post 44 I mentioned calculating my market at 120%.My thinking behind this is that it places me in the real world with regard to prices on offer,plus if my top rated horse is not the markets top rated horse then I may get some realistic "overs",,Not wishful thinking overs ,but maybe a $ here and there.

Some of you guys still don't get it.

VALUE always was, and always will be, getting more for your money than what it is Truly worth.
Every horse has a chance of winning a race.It is up to yourself to find out what the chance is.As long as you get over that price, then your books will end up in the black.
The thing is, you don't even need to know what that price is.If your books are showing a profit, you are getting it.
It's just much more plain to see when you have a set of prices in front of you, carefully worked out.

A more simple way would be to just get the first 3 Favourites in a race.
Add up their percentage prices offered by the Bookies, and reframe those 3 horses to that percentage using your own methods.
Then you will find the VALUE runner for yourself.

BAGHWAN..120%?..No Good....Just remember,whatever you do,if it won't work on roulette,then it won't work on the horses.

Quote Moeee

"The thing is, you don't even need to know what that price is.If your books are showing a profit, you are getting it".

If your books are in the black you are simply an astute punter.

The essence of value punting is being at the racetrack where bookmakers are standing next to each other and competing against each other in real time.

Fluctuating TAB prices are impossible to predict,and as you say Moee you actually do all of your calculations the day before the races.

Perhaps you would like to give us a few examples and tips to demonstrate your methods??

syllabus23. asks:
"Perhaps you would like to give us a few examples and tips to demonstrate your methods??"


Ah, when the theorist can't seem to unscramble the simple omelette they have created, so that we brainless plebes can understand what the hell they are talking about and are finally asked to do a few 'examples please', so we can get past the clear as mud stage.

I like this bit. Awaiting with baited breath :-))

Go for it moeee, whip out a few working examples to enlighten everyone, you do the prices the day before.

Value
 

There have been several weighty books written on the subject of value, in betting. As far as I am aware no one has come up with a magic formula which gives a definitive method of establishing what value is, or how to apply value in your day to day betting. There are plenty of opinions and maybe, but no definitive equation. So, if finding value is such an intangible process, does it really matter? Can it or should it be completely ignored? What do these madmen who constantly trumpet the horn of value really mean and are they involved in the biggest confidence trick since speed figures were published?

The Value Camp, hold the following argument to be true.

A horse that has a greater pay out odds than it’s chance odds is value. If a horse has a 20% chance of winning (4/1) and is available at odds of 6/1 (14%) represents value of +6%.

So, over a series of a 100 bets a punter can expect to be up around 6% of the stakes he has invested, or the money he’s turned over.

Some punters mistakenly believe that a winner is a winner no matter what price you strike your bet at. This of course is true, on a bet by bet basis, but not right when you look at the bigger picture over a series of bets.

If the same horse with a 20% chance of winning (4/1) was only available at 7/2 (22%), then value is –2%. Even though the horse might win, over a long series of such bets the punter can expect to be out of pocket to the tune of –2%.

This is all well and good but when and if you want to start looking for value, you have to come up with a method that establishes what price (or chance) a horse should be. This involves making your own tissue from the information that is available to you and then comparing the price you think the horse should be to what is on offer. And then having the confidence in your opinions to bet accordingly.

Well, that’s the general idea. Meanwhile back in the real world, us mortals have to work out how to apply all of these grand theories in our day to day betting. How can you know that your horse trading at 4/1 is really a 7/2 chance? This is the start and the crux of the problem with value punting.

Many normal happy punters have devolved from a Lucky15 and a couple of pints on a Saturday afternoon with their mates, into a lonely wannabe navel contemplating statistician or even worse an ************ on horses. And when it all ends in tears they blame their own lack of ability and clueless approach on, the inaccuracy and lack of proper information and statistics. I can’t remember the number of times I’ve heard a hapless value ************ cry .. ‘If only I’d known that the going was good to firm, good in places and not good, good to firm in places. All of this would never have happened and we’d still have the house.’

On every gambling internet forum in the world there are no losing punters, except myself occasionally and one or two others who don’t immediately spring to mind. Yet we all know that there are very few people who can win consistently and even fewer who can make the game pay enough for it to have a positive impact on their lives. If everyone is getting value then why isn’t everyone winning? Gambling and honesty don’t sit too well together and getting proper advise is almost impossible. Any decent advise that is out there is lost in a sea of meaningless information and half ********** opinions from serial losers phishing for snippets of information.

I personally stake between $5 and $15 on every selection that I make, depending on how confident I feel at any particular time. Varying the stake in line with my own comfort zone, not depending on what notion of value I think I have. Changes in the going, a couple of losing days or a general feeling on uneasiness based on break even results can limit my stakes. In the same way that settled going, a good series of winners can see me increase the size of my stake.

Ignoring value completely and not falling under it’s spell, allows me to concentrate on looking for winners. That value camp will argue that if you win more than you lose, then you are a value punter. This is of course true, but the methods by which the winners were found were not based on looking for value. If you can find winners then the value is sure to follow, the same cannot be said of the opposite.

Enjoying your punting Baco. Definitely on the right track as practically all of us are never going to get rich at this game.

Baco wrote:
"A horse that has a greater pay out odds than it’s chance odds is value. If a horse has a 20% chance of winning (4/1) and is available at odds of 6/1 (14%) represents value of +6%".

And that's nailing the 'value' problem. Unlike Casino games when all the variables are known and odds can be precisely worked out because all variables are known, we the punter are dealing with a few known variables and 647 unknown variables ['is the horse going to have a 2kg dump before he starts and wreck my weight calculations?']. 'True odds' are a myth and a bit like trying to work out our odds of making our 80th. birthday. Too many unknown variables!

Value is certainly no myth, but working it out before a race is an individual concern and estimation from the few facts we are lucky enough to know. Sometimes we will get it approx. right but mostly we won't. The easy way to work out if we have been getting value is to work out our average winning SR and compare it to our average collect. A 5/1 SR for a punter requires a better than 5/1 average collect. If we are not getting it we are losing and obviously our ideas about bet value ain't quite up to scratch are they? That's practically all of us.

http://www.punters-paradise.com/for...x.php/t-41.html

Nice to see Helen Demidenko has inspired someone.

I've always thought the Pom's use of the word "tissue" in this context to be a bit odd. Where did it come from? Does it imply that the "tissue" should be used to wipe something afterwards? ;)

Interesting post though, whoever is responsible.

PS: Nice use of TurnItIn, JFC
http://www.turnitin.com/static/home.html

TurnitIn? Never heard of it before, Merely:

http://www.google.com.au/search?q=l...lient=firefox-a

Just my 2 cents worth on value, e.g. Saturday Perth R3-3 Rosskaen, just b4 the jump is showing $5.40c for the win and $2.90c for the place, now as I see it @4.40-1 for the win = 1/3 odds a place (6 runners) so the place is worth 1.45-1, so @ 1.90 looks like ************ good value to me, just the way I see things?

Party,
I think it far easier to ascertain value for the place than for the win. If you can get 1/3 win odds or better consistently, your getting your fair share of value.

Question is, how do you nail the place odds down, as usually they fluctuate wildly in the last couple of minutes, even after the jump?

Lol, Lol :-)) Anyway, I think his heart is in the right place. At least he admits to losing [unlike the rest of us].

I like the Ian Davies reply:

"First off, IMO, there are essentially two types of punter -

1. The guy who likes to ''Play God'' and say: ''this one will win so I'm backing it no matter what the price is, or ''this one will get beat so I'm laying it no matter what the price is.'' Colourful characters, but I never knew anyone with an MO like this who made a profit long-term.

2. The guy who attempts to define value by compiling his own tissue (something I think everyone should do at least once in their lives, if only as a one-off academic exercise). This could be to the usual bookies' margin of 1.5%-2% a runner, but more usually it is to 100%, or even 90% or lower - a backer's book.

Basically anything trading at more than its tissue price is a value bet and, the bigger the price is relation to the tissue, the bigger the BACK bet. Conversely, the shorter the price in relation to its tissue the bigger the LAY bet. However, there is a caveat to that and one which follows along the lines of making sure you don't be arrogant enough to ''Play God.''

Don't kid yourself you can perpetually outperform the efficiency of the market by much because if something looks too good to be true, that's because it usually is. It's a bit like what Sky Masterson's dad* told him in Damon Runyon's Guys And Dolls, but a more contemporary explanation comes courtesy of RHIG who, in the chatroom the other day, stated words to the effect that the betting market is so efficient that it's rare to be able to out analyze it by much.

For example (my example, not his), if you have a horse trained by, say, Mick Easterby on your tissue at 8/1 for some minor handicap, at some unconsidered night meeting during Royal Ascot week or something similar, and it opens at 6/1 and is punted into 7/2, it's probably not a good idea to lay the bollocks off it because you had it in at 8s on your purely academic tissue. Unless you're sleeping with the horse in question, there is always someone out there who knows more about its chances than you do, Don't ever forget that and always be prepared to amend your tissue if there's money - or a distinct lack of it - for horses from certain yards".

With this thread getting so convoluted I'm not sure how much of Sy...'s questions have been fielded.

But here's my take.

Frame your market to 100%. A 20% premium ain't around these days.

If you can't get value about your top picks, even on Betfair, then offer (bad value) lays on your bottom picks.

Try to arrange it so you mainly end up green on your pets and red on your pests.

But don't back below best tote and don't lay too much higher than median tote.

If this doesn't work for you, then try to improve your ratings.

"Tissue" . That what the new Gunns mill in Tas. will be producing the pulp for [and disposable nappies], not quality enough for paper as it will be eucalyptus wood mostly used, pulped at 'World's best practice' standards [World Bank best practice, ie: best 3rd. world standards].

Crash, yes of course so that's always the issue, your finger has to be on the button, but as close as I can get, then bet best tote for the place this usually gets it, though not always but sometimes greater so overall it's close to what I want. The other angle is fixed odds of course, not my cuppa, but I can see how some would prefer it i.e. if you can't get overs (for the place fixed) then just ride that one out , rounda bouts and swings an all that. I had a good day on Sat 3 out of 4 the other one? well, I have to admit I fell for the "kid" on Star Escort, burned up early given no chance. Just to rub it in though the other 3 place bets all won! ---T!

Some punting tips,and tips
 

I think a lot of VALUE in starting odds occurs when an animal has run a few ordinary efforts, but has a lot of ability.
Punters tend to discard an animal before they will forgive it.
Therefore the odds tend to be more than what the animal should be.
When an animal fails at its latest start, if there is any reason at all why it occurred, then rate it as though that run never happened.

When you form a Market, and somehow it don't look right, ADJUST it.
If it don't look right, then it probably ain't.

Meadows Race 6 No 3 OPIE LAD $4 Eachway
Meadows Race 6 No 4 BANDIT'S FLAME $6 Eachway


Meadows Race 8 No 6 Fred Basset

I came up with a 40% chance of winning based on his ability.
With a Box penalty he goes out to 35%.
And for VALUE, $4.10 is the price needed.
I'ld imagine that would be available, so I'll go $12 Eachway on him.

Moeee my friend I back too many losers to be critical of anyone,nor do I intend to lower the tone of this thread with childish ya ya ya-ya garbage,,,,



Meadows Race 6 No 3 OPIE LAD $4 Eachway
Meadows Race 6 No 4 BANDIT'S FLAME $6 Eachway


Meadows Race 8 No 6 Fred Basset

I came up with a 40% chance of winning based on his ability.
With a Box penalty he goes out to 35%.
And for VALUE, $4.10 is the price needed.
I'ld imagine that would be available, so I'll go $12 Eachway on him.

Mate the meadows race6 just came up as bets without odds required which is really the crux of this thread..
I imagine that race8 was a no-bet race because you couldnt get your value??
I did notice that Fred Basset was a unitab 100 pointer and it would have been a bit doubtful to get out to $4.10

However I do understand what you are saying and accept the logic behind it.Thank you for giving the example.

I tend to agree syllabus23. Coming up with odds rarely on offer. It's one thing to create a value pudding from theory, it's another thing to be able to eat it. The bookies ain't mugs.