plenty of 'smarties' have thought the same - that a bookies license equates to a license to print money.

lol, couldnt be further from the truth, just go to a provincial/county track anywhere & ask the track locals for some bookie stories & enjoy the horror/comedy hour that will ensue.

metro tracks? yeh gods, takes a brave man with deep pockets, 'skinned alive' would best describe what can eventuate once you strap the bag on

if you want 1/2 an idea of what its like spend a day laying on betfair pretending to be bookie, you'll soon discover that your average punter may be a mug but will with regularity NOT do what you want him too, & for every dozen mugs theres a shark in waiting

Party, I don't think the bookies can flat out refuse a bet. I think they have to take a bet to lose a certain amount, depending on the area they work in. eg: in country areas they have to take a bet to lose $1000.
They haven't got an upper limit as far as I am aware.

Stugots, I definitly didn't consider the license is to print money, I realise there's a lot of brain power required as well to keep that book balanced. But what I was getting at is that LONG TERM the book has to win on %. Those horror stories you mention are usually where the bookie in question has an opinion on the outcome and so does not work to % (well that's how I understand it anyway)

JoeF, yes I read somewhere that they have to take 'A" bet, but then it's up to them, (again thats how I understand it)

well no doubt you gents and fems disregarded my top drawer
cleaned up today of course and for something differnt ive taken greek boys advice of sorts and bought a couple of nice reds instead of a meal
and im sure when i tell you i have developed a troting lay method there will be much haw hawing.....ty and good night
ps. this morning when i logged on to see if i had any funds left in my uk wallet be aaaaaaed there was an extra 275.00 in there yes thats right extra???
of course i didnt remember what i did so i checked on betfair and apparently i was taking my own advice ......good god

memo to self not to aaaaed up 85.00 see how we go do not go below 50

ok next newbury lay cosmea

for every dozen mugs theres a shark in waiting

That certainly is spot on in my experiences of trying to make books.
All it takes is one astute person to take you to the cleaners.

No worries partypooper,
to answer you....

Opinion bookies go bust, but so do others.
It isn't aways balanced, in fact it is rarely balanced.
The bookie can only refuse a bet over his rails limit, he cannot refuse bets from different people.

He can refuse a bet to lose $10,000 from one guy, but cannot refuse bets to lose $1,000 from twenty guys.

Where this becomes a problem, is when there is a sharp tumble on one runner, every day at every track, there's always a "go" on one runner.

The bookie can't layoff because every other bookie is in the same boat, if he dumps it on the tote, he's making the loss worse,as the odds are usually worse and his cash will make a snowball avalanche, he can dump it on Betfair, but there's not enough liquidity to do so.

So he faces perhaps twice the payout on that horse than any other in the field, and probably for the day.

Enough "right" tumbles in a row could easily see your average bookie hit the wall.
Only the high rollers can weather the storm.

However, it also depends when it happens, if it's early he should be fine, because he can manipulate the book to cause less damage, but if it's a last minute dump (excuse the obvious toilet humour), he can be in serious trouble.

That's why the big boys actually pay for information and have a buddy network like the bureau of meteorology.
They signal incoming shrapnel.

I've been studying bookmakers for quite a while, the secret society, and have a leading bookie in Sydney emailing me often. I am extremely amazed at what a secret society it is, if your not a member, you are the opposition ;)

Try and find bookies ledgers, bookies balancing books, bookies software on Google and all you'll find are vague references and garbage.

I have been educated somewhat though recently, by this bookie and my eyes have been opened somewhat.
It's a much tougher game than punting - believe it or not.
I never did, and now I have a whole new respect for the bagmen.

typical ...brag and though shalt be humped over by the ever watchful types not unlike your good self chrome
give me my money back ......lol never mind lindsey what comes round goes round

layed cobo im up thanks chrome i hope i have your cash

Huh?

If I've offended you somehow ****************, sorry :(

lol chrome its all good

lilac wine is alay what do toy think chrome im on at 245.oo

viva the wine he he

lay kelamon

and pictor

oooh kelamon is a tough lay, but good luck with it.

well, I can see that you're all "WAY" ahead of me, but I'll just stick to KISS formula, it hasn't fared too bad for me over the years!

In fact I'll tell ya, some of the best "brain waves" that came my way in 30 years of manufacturing were from the sweeper uppers! I'm NOT JOKING! you know a comment "off the cuff" in passing, that caught my attention, and WHAM! why didn't "I" think of that, too close to the wood to see the trees!

layed rileys

sweet

next at sthwell?/ lay the rockdock

im up enough so im on minum bets from now on i hope

the rock duck sank ..hehe

laying broughhohaw

easy money

lay the snoopy

How about back any horse with Ruler in it's name running in Melbourne?

How about horses 5yo or younger, with TAB #2 jumping from Barrier #2, running in Sydney over distances of greater than 1700m? ;)

or maybe even
1/sp likely to be <8
2/the horse with the highest win to run ratio ..place it

Here ya go (Not so) Helpful Harry, this is how you do it:

Must have won last start
Must of finished worse than 9th at 2nd last start
Must of finished worse than 9th at 3rd last start
Must be Saddle cloth number 1 to 9
Must be carrying 56 to 58.5 kg
Must have greater than 6 runners
Must have had one or two runs from a spell
Must be aged between 3yo and 7 yo

S/R Win 20.41%
S/R Plc 44.9%
Win Pot 85.51%
Win Plc 26.73%
Av. Win Div $9.09
Av. Plc Div $2.82

Good Luck...

I used to look for horses with atleast 3 runs from spell and form like 110 close to the top weight, gee they could produce some nice prices.

Sel 504
Won 33 S/R 6.55% Max Div $15.40
Plc 122 S/R 24.21% Max Div $15.8
WLOT 61.1% Av. Div $5.95
PLOT 26.8% Av. Div $3.02

Lay maybe?

Sel 267
Win 21 S/R 7.87%
Win POT 8.8%

(WPOT in professional acceptable range crash ! )

Sel 63
Win 15 S/R 23.8%
Plc 36 S/R 57.1%
WPOT 10.8%
PLOT (1.5%)

and now for the peace of resistance
any race with only 1 starter that has won or placed its last start = lay

Lay selection
 

Hi ****************,

2/ Same or easier class as the runner your going to lay?

Is this right?

Cheers, MrFugly.

i only use tabonlines form guide and im no genius so i cant work out the actual class im just going by the numbers class 1 at thangool or class 1 at eaglefarm its all the same to me???
of course there is the odd winner or 2 but you have to use your inner chee as well..
and most important of all try not to use your inner chee and lay the pommy races if you are aaaaed ....this always ends up in disaster trust me iam an aaaaaa at this

Heres a Lay method that the bookmakers dont want you to know about.
But I am prepared to share & willing to take the risk for sharing this dark secret...
Would you share a system? I just did , why?
Because very few will run with it without changing it in some way, that is human nature in action.
Plus we need Lay bettors to make the win market function more keenly as close to 100% market value as possible & this can only be done if there are plenty of lay bettors out there.

Example .
Have a look at the Betfair UK market compared to the the US market percentages to see what I mean.

LAY SYSTEM
.Target meetings where 4+ venues can be bet on.
This is done to try & avoid anomilies that occure in racing & is often found where there are less than 4 venues being targeted.

.Target races where there are 2 or more last start winners in the race.
Not including resumers.

We are assuming this is a race with some class depth to it & anything should win & usually does.
Just look at some of the prices that get up to win in these type of races.

.From those two or more LS winners, the selection to lose, is the one at the shortest price to lay at 30-60 secs till jump time.

. Stop betting for the day if one gets bit 3 times in a row , it will usually turn out to be one of those strange days where the same thing just keeps happening all day.
I'm sure we have all seen those sort of days from time to time.

Money Management
Bet 1.00% of bank if $5.50 & less.
Bet 0.50% of bank if $5.60-11.00
Bet 0.33% of bank if $11.50-16.00

It works a treat & shows approx 85% success rate.

Ruler
(Melb):
1/1/2008....30/09/08
Sel 33

Wins 3 (S/R 9%)
Plcs 19 (S/R 10%)
WReturn $16.2
WProfit ($16.8)
POT (50.9%)

PReturn $30.3
PProfit ($2.7)
PPOT (8%)


(All States):
1/1/2008....30/09/08
Sel 60

Wins 8 (S/R 13%)
Plcs 19 (S/R 32%)
WReturn $69.3
WProfit $9.3
POT 15.5%

PReturn $61.2
PProfit $1.2
PPOT 2.0%


TAB #2 (Sydney):
1/1/2008....30/09/08
Sel 2
Wins 1 (S/R 50%)
Plcs 1 (S/R 50%)
Return $2.5
WProfit $0.5
POT 25%

TAB #2 (All States):
1/1/2008....30/09/08
Sel 42
Wins 7 (S/R 17%)
Plcs 98 (S/R 38%)
Return $52
WProfit $10.0
POT 24%