Yellowstone is out !! makes you feel for the connections of the horses that just missed out,, Baughurst might have run a race against these..

Will have to put Nom De jeu in the mix now,,,and i like loyd on the horse,,he'll run over a few to get the horse into the clear as the barrier is a bit of a worry,,
but if the mexicans spread the field out with a good tempo he should find some daylight..

Hey Maverick what are your thoughts re a speed map?

These scratchings are disgusting for this race for these 2 to be out of the race with so long left surely there is some way they can put in a couple of emergencies for this race, with the money on offer all the way back to 10th place it is disgusting for these horses to be scratched this far short of the event.

fellas, im new to this game but i might be of assisstance.
i know they are pretty well the favourites but heres my flexi tri havent worked out which placings as yet where:
1 septimus
2 profound beauty
3 mad rush
4 nom de jeu
5 barbaricus
6 honolulu
7 alassandro volta
the last pick there is one not to discount, known front runner from the UK. if the track gets heavy could hold on for a place!

Hi People welcome..we mugs need all the help we can get :)

Ok Vomits

I have Barbaricus going forward but he'll let the visiters cross if they really want it,,,,,Alessandro Volta and Honolulu will try and go forward,,,Vareeves will do the same..i even think Boundless will try and go forward from out there,,really has no other chance but to get forward and stick on as hes no chance snagging back..

This gives Mad Rush a good possie behind the speed,,,Septimus will need some sort of cover but he'll be better than midfield,,,Cest La Guerre looks to get a nice run ,,,Profound Beauty will need some luck but i have her midfield on the fence so she'll hope she doesnt get stuck behind some of these slow ones in front..Bauer comes across from out there and will hope to get a good possie better than midfield..

All the others will be back and fighting for good possies,,Zipping will need luck but he'll have horses this time he can follow into the race..Nom De Jeu will need a stack of luck back there but the jockey is a nut so he'll find a way.

I dont see many surprises except i think Honolulu and Alexendra Volta will go forward,,if not str8 away but atleast at the 1/2 way marker ,,
Septimus i dont think has the speed to be handy but he'll look forward and latch onto the back of one his stablemates..
I hope Zipping is back trailing Nom De Jue because this will give him a good cart into it...

Cest La Guerre and Mad rush and Barbaricus get the best runs imo just ahead of Septimus and Bauer..

Yellowstone is now scratched from the Cup.
Anyone for Red Lord?

I am going for big Tri...

Spec, Mad, Zip, NDJ, Red, Bound, Gallop and Barba... 178...
Have to give Ice a miss....

I am going for big Tri...

Spec, Mad, Zip, NDJ, Red, Bound, Gallop and Barba... 168...
Have to give Ice a miss....

As usual this is a tough race to sort out but here goes anyway

1. Septimus: He has a great record for a stayer but alot of it has come in small fields the only time he ran in a big field over a trip he was well beaten in the cerby by Sir Percy, He appears to be a horse that needs to be given alot of galloping room and a pretty one paced grinding type much in the shape of Yeats perfect for English conditions but you have to have a turn of foot to be in the finish in this race, From what I have seen he lacks that I know he won the St.Ledger by 13 lengths but the track was bottomless by all reports and they looked nothing more than glorified cockroaches chasing him. I concede him a place chance but I really doubt he can win this race personally.

2. Master O'Reilly: He is going well but I have my doubts he will run the trip out he couldn't do it last year with no apparent reason other than he may have gone over the top, I concede he could be a chance in the race he does have class but my doubts on him at the trip make it pretty hard for me to include him in my selections.

3. Honolulu: Another one of Aiden O'Briens one pacers by the look of him not a big fan of him although his run in the ebor last year behind Purple Moon would appear to give him a chance in the race. For mine recent form around horses like Geordieland, Distinction and Yeats just isn't good enough for mine to be challenging here think both he and Septimus would need this to be run at an amazingly fast pace to have any chance of pulling this off for mine no thanks.

4. C'est La Guerre: He hasn't had a chance to show his best since getting over here for team williams but he gets his chance in this race he is drawn beatifully and gets one of the best hoops in the world to steer his course. a bit of rain would have been a big bonus for him but there wasn't enough, I do still think he is capable on top of the ground and can really be in the finish with a great run just a matter of whether it is a year to early for him.

5. Nom Du Jeu: He has been my top selection for quite some time and I see no reason to jump off board, alot have questioned his NZ form but please take into account the jockey change which has happened of here he is atleast a 5 length better horse with Jeff Lloyd on his back IMO. Lloyd can really get every ounce out of a horse over the concluding stages and being drawn in might acutally help him from what I hear this morning the is a massive head wind in the straight and gives him the chance to try and get into a slip stream in the straight keeping cover behind other horses untill he needs to pull out and really go for them. My top pick as I said has been since his Derby win he is bred to run the trip on his ear with coupled with his form is enough for me.

6. Yellowstone: SCRATCHED

7. Zipping: He is in form I am happy to concede that but I can't have him he isn't giving me the impression that he is any better than he has been in previous years and he couldn't finish the race out then so I am happy to not be on him.

8. Mad Rush: Great run in the Caulfield Cup drawn beautifully in this with a proven cup jockey on it's back and IMO the best trainer in the world sending him out to top him off. He'll be hard to beat seems to be a very consistent horse always there or there abouts in the finish wouldn't want him at the odds being thrown around now and good luck to anyone who snared there good odds earlier. Definite hope this list is going to be long :)

9. Ice Chariot: This guy is absolutely flying right now in the best form of his career still I have doubts on him at this level at the trip he could place but I really doubt it top 10 finish is possible for sure.

10. Viewed: This guy needed the heavens to fall apart last night to be a winning chance he is going along solidly and is a place chance without rain however he would shock me a bit if he won the race but who knows how do you ever right off Bart completely in this race (how ironic would i be if Bart won his 250th group 1 in this race)

11. Littorio: I still don't mind this guy he is a big gangly horse needs galloping room and although his last run may have looked disappointing the typical crap sit and sprint races we are seeing so much these days just give him no chance in so many races. I maybe one of the few that doesn't have a big distance doubt on him good jockey on board and he might be the blowout horse if there is one in this race.

12. Bauer: I amnot a big fan of this bloke he might just whack away finish not far off them he just doesn't have the class of a few others.

13. Boundless: She isn't a bad horse but I amnot 100% convinced she wants this trip for mine I don't like her and she won't get consideration from me today.

14. Gallopin: he is a good horse I amnot convinced he wants 3200 he struggled to get past a horse in Baughurst last start who I feel struggles to run out 2500 if your on him good luck but I can't have him.

15. Guyno: Consistent horse this bloke he is always there abouts at the finish has only finished outside of the top 5 twice in his last 20 races and hasn't been beaten anymore than 4 lengths in that time he will just keep whacking away and if your looking for a roughie to include in 1st 4's he might be worth consideration at around $150-1.

16. Zarita: SCRATCHED

17. Newport: He is going along ok and will just keep whacking away should run a decent race but would have to doubt his class here.

18. Profound Beauty: I can't fault this horse at the weights she has been going well at home before coming out here and one of the few euros with a turn of foot, Dermot Weld knows what you need to win the cup out here and she really looks an enormous chance leave her out of your top selections at your own peril she really looks thrown in here.

19. Red Lord: Good luck but no thanks he isn't looking for this trip.

20. Varevees: I am sorry but this thing doesn't appear to going well at all most seem to think her best form was 2 years ago not today.

21. Prize Lady: Another one of these that looks like she'll just keep whacking away but really lacks the class to challenge here.

22. Alessandro Volta: I hear a few tipping this saying it is better than Mahler I don't agree and I can't have it good luck to anyone who is on it though.

23. Barbaricus: this guy is flying but the Lion Hunter thing is enough for me not to like him here I am sorry but if a Lion Hunter sired horse wins this race it would be amazing and unbelievable. Best of luck to all who are on but I can't have him even with the form.

24. Moatize: good luck to bart and claire but I can't have him

1. Nom Du Jeu
2. Profound Beauty
3. C'est La Guerre
4. Mad Rush
5. Littorio
6. Guyno (there is always a roughie there somewhere :) )

Great summary Raw, cant dissagree with anything you have said there.

My Picks
Nom Du Jeu
Profound Beauty
Littorio
Cest Le Geure
Red Lord (like you say always one rough one in there :) )

Phew! Quite an effort, Raw.

Thanks and Good Luck.

Big field,tough race,more selections, but i did jag the the 1st 4 in the cox plate (6 selections) using these ratings. only had a 10 % flexi, not being a big punter.

GOOD TRACK:

95 GALLOPIN
87 ZIPPING / MOATIZE
85 HONOLULU/NOM DU JEU/MAD RUSH/PROFOUND BEAUTY/ICE CHARIOT

others that just make my cut off for group 1"s:

80 BARBARICUS/SEPTIMUS/MASTER O'REILLY


These ratings picked trifecta and 1st 4 last year, but I put the pen through Efficient after his cox plate run, stupid stupid me!

To hard the race but the exotics are always to good to ignore...

On top
Mad Rush , Cest La Gurre , Profound Beauty, Barbaricus
Nom De Jeu , Zipping , Septimus
Honolulu , Bauer , Ice Chariot, Alessendro Volta , Newport
4 / 7 / 12 / 12

and still probably way off :)

Good Luck all :)

late mail for some solid outsiders/roughies:

Gallopin-set for this race
prize lady-won over trip must count for soemthing

race 2 number 9 also cheers

Selections
 

1. Bauer
2. Ice Chariot
3. Gallopin
4. Barbaricus

but.... not confident at all.

DANGER....DANGER...!!!
Just about every tipster has made No.8 Mad Rush their top choice(including the notorious "mock" of Sydney radio).
Can this topliner carry this enormous burden? We'll know just after 3.00p.m.A.E.D.T.
Good luck!

anyone
 

anyone else getting on nom de jeu i put a bet straight on his nose.

Viewed?

Well done Bart!

post56,
no, it couldn't carry the burden.

Cheers.

Im shatterred..... i think Bauer missed by a 1/4 of an inch..

but well done Bart.. your a legend..

Anyone in this forum pick Viewed? I dont understand why his odds is so short at 40+ when his form is so bad!!!

My worst MC pick!!!

Matilda, worse than that I backed it on Saturday!!!!!!!!! groan,.....

I hadn't written Viewed off totally didn't have anything on it did think it was massive overs compared to it's stable mate however, The run on saturday didn't really put me off him more what happened in the run all the way up the straight he was like a pinball between Rampant Lion and Princess Coup and was worried that he wouldn't back up from that more than anything.

If the track had a bit of rain on it I would have probably thrown $10 on him even if it was only dead just didn't like him with what looked to be a rock hard surface.

Here is the problem now guys it has happened 2 years in a row now where a so called outsider has won the race because of such a massive form reversal, Not necessarily the case for either year. The problem is the lead up races for the most part were run at such a farcical pace that everyone is left guess what might run the trip out and what might not you don't really get to see where the stamina really kicks in.

Personally all I did was pull even on the race with an E/W bet on C'est La Guerre who went out at ridiculos odds I feel Lloyd would not have paid up with him if they didn't think he was capable this year, so all was not lost on the race but still a disappointing result.

Another dart job. I thought Viewed was way under considering all the hype about the 2 silly favorites and a few others.

Zoe and I have given up on trying to win money on the race. I think we had a 5% tri. for $5 and our usual one win bet each. I picked up the winner on r4 and zoe picked up winners on r5, r6 and r8! A good day overall.

The funny thing is that Viewed won the Brisbane Cup brilliantly in the winter and Wayne Wilson mistakenly called it as Bart's 250th G1 win, forgetting that the race had been downgraded to G2 this year. Well, now here we are 5 months later and Viewed DOES give Bart his 250th G1 win.

Also ironic that when the Brisbane Cup was a 3200m race, it was a pretty awful guide to the Melbourne Cup, but the first year it's run over 2400m, it produces the winner. ;)

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/...7-10389,00.html

What the jockeys had to say after the 2008 Melbourne Cup
November 04, 2008 02:26pm




BLAKE SHINN (VIEWED, 1st): "He was trained perfectly for the race and that was all important. The straight seemed to last forever. I thought I'd won on the line. I wasn't sure, I didn't want to go off too early after the line. I looked to the infield and they had the camera on Bauer so I thought I might be wrong. I was down when I missed the winning ride on Northern Meteor last Saturday (suspension) but this more than makes up for it."

COREY BROWN (BAUER, 2nd): "Shattered. Every chance. There's nothing more that I could have done. I reckon his run might have ended 25 metres out but, to his credit, the last two strides he really hit at the line, but it's not good enough. My biggest disappointment, no doubt."

BRETT PREBBLE (C'EST LA GUERRE, 3rd): "A super run, very strong. He pulled a bit. We couldn't get clear. He should have won."

VLAD DURIC (MASTER O'REILLY, 4th): "Got held up. Needed to get free and rolling a bit earlier. Probably would almost have won if I'd got the right breaks."

GLEN BOSS (PROFOUND BEAUTY, 5th): "She had a perfect run. We tracked the winner but when I asked her she really felt the ground."

CLARE LINDOP (MOATIZE, 6th): "Probably raced a bit too close. At the top of the straight he didn't let down as well as I thought he would. But he boxed on well to the line."

DAMIEN OLIVER (MAD RUSH, 7th): "Didn't quite stay the trip and came to the end of his run near the 200 metres."

JEFF LLOYD: (NOM DU JEU, 8th): "He over-raced but basically needed the rain. He's a bit of a keen horse but got to the line OK."

DANNY NIKOLIC (ZIPPING, 9th): "He ran terrific but I ran into all sorts of trouble behind Gallopin when he dropped back really quickly. He lost all momentum, probably lost five lengths there. He's got home and run ninth and probably run the best sectionals of the race. He was very unlucky."

CHRIS SYMONS (NEWPORT, 10th): "If he had drawn better he would have been closer. He got home as well as anything else. Went terrific."

MICHAEL RODD (ICE CHARIOT, 11th): "Ah, went well."

CRAIG NEWITT (GUYNO, 12th): "He probably ran up to his best."

STEVEN KING (LITTORIO, 13th): "No excuse, the two miles was too far for him."

CRAIG WILLIAMS (VAREVEES, 14th): "She just lacked a turn of foot."

GREG CHILDS (BOUNDLESS, 15th): "Had every chance."

NICHOLAS HALL: (RED LORD, 16th): "He'll be a better horse next year but he got the trip OK."

MARK SWEENEY: (PRIZE LADY, 17th): "She just didn't see it out."

JOHNNY MURTAGH (SEPTIMUS, 18th): "He might not be the horse for the race. When they got into the straight he just stopped."

STEPHEN BASTER (BARBARICUS, 19th): "Just didn't stay on the day.'

WAYNE LORDAN (ALESSANDRO VOLTA, 20th): "Travelled well but wouldn't let down. Maybe the track was too firm but he's still only a three-year-old and I think he'll be back."

COLM O'DONOGHUE (HONOLULU, Last): "The ground was too quick for him.

JAMES WINKS (GALLOPIN, Failed to finish): "Couldn't breathe. I had to pull him up ..."

Well, what a surprise. Who would have thought that would possibly happen when you went at such a suicidal pace? :rolleyes:

Seriously, what were those idiots thinking?

Read in today's paper they were just outside the time for the Hip's Don't Lie race for the first 1000m of the race.... 58.5sec vs 57.8 (or something to that effect!) :eek:

hows this,
a good friend of my sister in law knows jack about horses, only bets occasional first fours has jagged the first 4 3 times for an outlay of $72!!! 1.6 mill... she said she just liked the names

post13,
I was concerned this may be a negative aspect in the running of our greatest race.
What about the tactics employed by the overseas visitors...?
The officials certainly "hauled" the aaaaa trainer in for a "please explain?"
However, I feel there is a "sense of arrogance" displayed by some of our guests whereby they may feel they "are doing us a favour" to appear in our premier racing event.
The race and all it's history is bigger than that!

Cheers.

post13,
It has been a fairly controversial Cup this year with the tactics employed by some overseas runners and the form displayed by Viewed leading into the running of the great race.

Cheers.

Typical arrogance. Over-rated horses and over-rated trainer and jocks. Didn't have a clue how to win this race!

wow how good was my speed map ,,the only thing i got right in the race..

Vieweds form was sound,,his CC run was very good,,,and inclusive in the Mackinnon after Rampant lion smashed him..

I just assumed he was a wet tracker,,,,doh,,

Poor Zipping unlucky,,,probably his last chance,,didnt he come home well..
Cest la Guerre will be winning some nice races..and the poor mexicans will have to go back to the drawing board..