I feel that topsy99's theories make a lot of sense. As an alternative to my own data base, I see that RacingandSports have a tab in their home page Horse Records Search for Black Type performances by calendar year. If you know your Group/Listed races schedule, this would seem to easily convert to close to what topsy99 draws on. Anyone know of a better way of identifying Group/Listed performances by horse?
Cheers,
Jackact

Summer Cup Ratings
 

I need help here, topsy99!
I have calculated Summer Cup ratings based on my understanding of your rules, and using Colin Tidy's Betchoice fixed prices. Am I close to your figures??
Rockwood 5
Music Review 0.9
Brave Lancer 9.2
Zazabeau 0.7
Scouting Wide 0.8
Solid Billing 6
Bright Mind 0.8
Dane Fontaine 2.6
Which would make Brave Lancer the best value, followed by Solid Billing then Rockwood.

Summer Cup
 

Not a bad result if backed the top three value horses - 1st ($12 win) and 3rd.

sorry for late response
 

have had weekend with grandchildren and watched most races.
good results. your numbers are pretty good on the summer cup.
wasnt Jim Cassidy a treat on Solid Billing. I missed him recently apparently had a gardening accident.

One of the risks and rules of our system is not to cherry pick. I am as wary of Brave Lancer as any of you. as matter of fact had a weekend at Thredbo with Chairman of Wyong jockey club in 2005 who was spruiking it in the geelong cup that year. got knocked on the line by On a jeune. But it has changed trainers I think was J McNair (Wyong trainer) back in those days. back to the figures.
New Spice was a good result in Ascot. Also and not sure if any betting on this - Vosne Romanee won the group 1 in Ellerslie yesterday with 22 points at 33/1 . I guess the theory proves we dont know when they will perform but somebody does and they are more entitled than we are.
The odds are good. with New Spice at 20/1/ with 13 points was worth a lash.
Doing the numbers is an identifiable value that i have found I cant define by doing barriers, weights, margins, form and cuts the random betting action. By including all of the variables and possibilities sends me silly. maybe not many big results each saturday but at least a few winners and potential for some odds.
Again I would like to commend Jim Cassidy on his ride yesterday I recall him winning last years Doncaster and Derby by perfectly judged rides . its good to seem him back.
Good luck will keep an eye on this page in future and confirm my figures to you. Particulary the higher ones.

PS
 

A week ago someone asked if performs better in Black Type than ordinary.

No. all races are considered as far as looking for a bet.
regards

Thanks, topsy99, its nice to know my figures aren't way out.
I agree with your high opinion of J Cassidy. A few years ago, friends of mine raced a horse (out of Canberra) which used to throw its head about in races, clearly affecting its performance. Jim rode it three times in midweek races, for a win. What he did, though, was to teach the horse to race better. Later it won and was placed at Saturday meetings (other jockeys), and the owners were sure it was Jim's guidance that improved the animal's racing manners.
Good punting,
Jackact

Perth Cup
 

Here are my figures for the Perth Cup, using Betchoice fixed odds as at Thursday midday. (First figure is points, second figure is points/10*price to arrive at Rating):
Newport 10.66, 10.6
Largo Lad 11, 13.2
Lords Ransom 8.66, 2.6
Star Encounter 9.5, 17.1
Gondorff 7, 4.1
Right Fong 2, 1.6
Friars Touch 0.33, 2.7
Geyser Peak 1, 4.1
Hadabeclorka 6.5, 39.7
Lambton Castle 2, 12.2
Ma Chienne 5.5, 4.4
Markus Maximus 11, 14.3
New Spice 4, 7.6
Sentenza 1, 5.1
Almohad 1, 1.5
Truckin Tobie 0.5, 3
Esroh 3, 30.3
Neige 1, 20.1The ratings for the emergencies are probably inflated by the risk that they will not get a start, so the Rating should be re calculated on the final field. However, on what we have, Hadabeclorka is top value, followed by Esroh, then Neige, then Markus Maximus and Largo Lad. Betting strategies on final field?? Back the top three Raters for a win and place? Combine in duets?

Jackact

respons for perth cup
 

my figs. newport 22 largo lad 11 lords ransom 12 star encounter gondorff 8 right fong 3 friars touch 3 geyser peak 2 hadabeclorka 4 lambton castle 3 ma chienne 5 markus maximus 12 new spice 15 sentenza 2 almohad 2 truckin tobie 1 esroh 3 neige 1.


word of caution . dont let your ratings be overtaken by wild odds. when rating with prices a 100/1 shot has an unreal influence on your rating and i tend to work from the best/highest listed rating down. in this case newport, lords ransom new spice star encounter gondorff

i note that you have lambton castle has 12 rating i cant see that.
points divided by 10 * price divided by year since last performed in a listed race. at 10/1 this gives lambton castle rating of 2 he would need to be 60/1 for 12 (which could be right) but judgement is required and would suggest a saver bet rather than being very bold but who knows.


be brave but follow the numbers.

hard learned lessons.
 

each weekend i spend at my holiday house on the huon river in tasmania and watch the races and punt all saturday afternoon. after the races are over i would review what had happed during the day and constantly this method delivered the results and all my other ancilliary bets (my opinion of who would win on barriers weights etc) would fritter away my money. my eagerness to punt slewed my punting to a wasteful experience.

in the calculation. it is designed not to over bet on long prices.
e.g. a 1 pointer could be 10/1 and a current year performer to be a $1 bet. this could even be would back by increasing the division by 10. but you could be lucky and it comes off which it will eventually.
In the above case a two year since listed placing would need to be 20/1 to be a $1 (unit) bet.
But as i said my wasteful experiences proved that i was no judge at picking winners no matter how good they looked . good luck for tomorrow.

Perth Cup (continuing)
 

Thanks heaps for your advice, tops99. Yes, I had Lambton Castle on 2 points, which times the odds/10 I got to 12.2 - he is $61& with Betchoice.
I can see how long shots can corrupt the pattern of final ratings. At 61, Hadabeclorka is a huge risk as he has not won beyond 1400m. Still, he seems to be going OK now they are trying him over longer (finally, at 8YO). Esroh would not seem to up to this field, hence the 100/1 and your warning!
Thanks again for your help.
Jackact

i didnt back this.
 

matter of interest I just arrived at other house and had two horses brilliantes and dahara prize in race 5 at ipswich. sometimes my points wont co-incide with the exact listed list that you might get from somewhere else.

recall that i said i credited some races of higher prizemoney with a listed B classification due to the low number of listed races in certain areas e.g. brisbane and adelaide I credit the $41,000 race in Adelaide as a listed b which gives two points for winning and 1 for placing.

Dahara Prize was 3rd to Sienna's Pride in a $100,000 race in Townsville two year old in June and I put it in. Paid $14.00 today There is some worth in noting the higher prizemoney races as being sought after results for trainers.
The simplicity of throwing it into a database throws it up on days like this.

In the case of some of the perth cup horses Lambton Castle was showing good form about a year ago and hastnt delivered in recent times and Hadebeclorka is similar. I always throw a saver on the renegade ratings.

Perth Cup - More
 

Nice win at Townsville, topsy99!
A database like the one you describe will always be more complete than using RacingandSports Group/Listed summaries. The R&S info seems to go back to only 2007, so that leaves a big hole. And I don't add in higher prizemoney non-black type races, as you do. So our figures will not match - yours will be more accurate. I really only tried using the R&S material to see how it went as an approximation of your process.
I will stick to numbers 2,10,14 in the Perth Cup out of interest - 10 for a place.
Here's hoping.
Jackact

perth cup
 

ref data base. i use gwbasic an old programming language used to come out with msdos. rarely used these days but is useful. i save the results from mondays australian and search my points with a small self adding program by putting in the name and it auto adds up the points.


but back to the perth cup.
doing traditional judgment which failed me but the weights but not the barriers favour some. on barriers and weights and points.
largo lad barrier 19 11 points weight ok lords ransom 12 points barrier (2) and down 3.5 kgs. gondorff barrier 6 8 points and down massive 5.5kgs (my pick) hadebeclorka 4 points down 6kgs barrier 20. new spice 15 points barrier 4 down 3 kgs.
so with that lords ransom gondorff (looks real good) 8 points new spice 15 points. (but have been wrong before)

good luck slight mention for star encounter 14 points but not sure of her class in this race.

hard to catch
 

how close was that. $12 odd for a place was nearly a 50/1 shot.
loves it wet.
Court and royal ida were top numbers.

points
 

generally points went well. hard to catch was 35 points just missed.
perth cup was a good result but no value in it.
royal ida was good result. ridden by a genius.
court's price lost something when the favorite scratched at the barrier.
Ma Ma Machine had five points ascot , spinney usual honest race 30 points 3rd, hairy 7 points almohad was brilliant ride and was down 3kgs on winning form.

all in all some strikes and a bit of bad luck. thought i was home on airways in the last at flemington only to be beaten by a bolter.



havent scored todays yet.

Hello Topsy,

Thanks for your posts as it helps confirm points scored etc and also what your thoughts were. It isn't a press the button and find a selection method but does make you think. If only there was a way to be more often correct in the thinking?

Happy New Year
Twodogs

Minimum Points
 

Evening Topsy,

Do you generally work with a minimum number of points before you get too interested in a horse?

Black type races can have many top chances and even looking for value as per your calculation can still leave it a tough race do you have a general rule of thumb you work with?

Recent dist ability could eliminate some as would historic dist ability along with its liking for the going. Odd day back ups going by a reference I saw by you to fitness patterns (Blakemore)

Cheers
Twodogs

Good One!!
 

Another good result at Sandown today Topsy!

See attachment

Cheers
Twodogs

rathshallagh
 

i've just been to northwest tasmania for a few days camping so missed sandown. you wouldnt believe i backed rathshallagh last start. got beaten by 18 lengths but was place in queensland derby group 1 2008 and 13 points was the score. (noticed G Boss rode it) the question regarding minimum number of points ref; perth cup. i favour the top points scores.
Ref doing some work on the race. I do it for the interest . I cant make selections from the paper as it is boring as there is no end of races .
The point systems put some personality into the selections and i like the idea of trainers targeting wins. e.g. rathshallagh I am sure would not have gone without some backing. Rathsahallagh also placed at group 2 level at Trentham. Methods like this limit my activities to listed horses so stops the go, go, go danger of racing.
I hope you had something on rathshallagh.

example
 

in the case of rathshallagh it is a mistake to try to pick the eyes out of the races. a winner at 37/1 pays for a lot of sins and by trying to exact your selections might cause short odds and also miss a lot of winners.

That's experience talking.

A group 1 placegetter at 37/1 is a bit inviting the fact that its form was poor is a test of faith. we have been discussing this test of faith. most of us punters cant go a few races wthout a winner and that is our downfall.

Hope you enjoyed your break!
 

No unfortunately not. Was looking at the races after the event! Laurie many black type races have quite a few high pointers do you generally leave these alone?

Cheers
Twodogs

A group 1 placegetter
 

You have nailed it there Laurie a group 1 placegetter is better than a listed placegetter.

Staking properly should take care of runs of losers but I guess it is a little bit of an unknown what sort of strikerate can be achieved until you have had a go live.

Regards
Twodogs

Prepost Prices
 

Laurie we can do the points once we have the form but what prices do you use to work out your value bets? In the Sandown race on Wednesday I used the 5 mins to go prices off the tote but it is a little close for comfort if you haven't done some work before then.

Cheers
Twodogs

Well done again, topsy99. Interestingly, I did back Rathshallagh, but based on work I am doing on Unitab rate combinations on last races at metrop meetings (I reckon last races are the hardest on each program usually, and therefore the best for value).
It is always good to get your thoughts.
Jackact

test of faith.
 

one bet friday. spontaneous moonee valley last race
m rodd place group 1 in new zealand trained by m moroney. backed in late. i backed at 10/1 3 mins to go paid $6.40

did anyone get electric general in ascot yesterday. 6 points (most in race) paid $33.

it is a test of faith. but risking a comment on that race - 6 horse race ma ma machine coming off a listed win a week before at odds on.

See what you are up against.? a very unpredictable industry and punters are usually at the short end.
Also got come on cugat yesterday in sydney at $22 I ignored brave lancer and i backed come on cugat last start. Never got anything in gold coast though.

I missed that one Laurie as my database didn't have the NZ run.

Cheers
Twodogs

Good Score Laurie!
 

Actually I scored it with 11 points but I didn't look to closely at the race until after the event. Good Score Laurie!

Your right about following form as it can defy logic! Last winner and short and best it can do is run 4th.

Cheers
Twodogs

The short end of market
 

The short end of market can really hurt when you get a run of losses. You can do the form get everything right in your opinion only to see the horse not come out of the barriers, weight in light, not get the runs it needs to get out and the excuses go on. Of course you can be wrong also with your wise opinion so it can add up to plenty of frustration at prices that don't allow longer run of outs.

I would certainly wouldn't mind back double figure odds even if it takes three selections to get it.

Laurie have you bet your selections in the exotics?

Cheers
Twodogs

Thank You
 

Topsy99 is your normal approach to just back one horse in a race or would you back a few?

I thank you for post this approach as it has renewed my interest in research and in an area price wise that I didn't generally expect to find winners.

Cheers
Twodogs

Canterbury Classic
 

Here are my figures for the Canterbury Classic on 14th January. (Using R&Sports data only, and Betchoice early market.)
Hadaaf 12.8
Kennys World 7.0
Bank Robber 6.3
News Alert 5.3
Pins on Parade 3.2
I'll be backing Kennys World and News Alert for a place.
Cheers,
Jackact

My calculations for Canterbury race
 

I used IAS for my early prices and attached is what I came up with. Hard to separate numbers 2,4 and 5

Good Luck
Twodogs

exotics
 

no i dont back exotics.
also on a sychological point of view i found that the bigger the bet the more you gravitated to the favorite. e.g. remember don scotts theory where he used to say that you bet every horse as if its favorite to ensure you got value of longshots.

generally you dont go long without a long priced listed horse winning a race. the trick is to be on them.
My data base will be slightly different to those working strictly off listed/group results. I mentioned this a few weeks ago where i qualify higher prizemoney races to ensure a reasonable number of horses in each state. queensland doesnt have as many listed races as other states and i qualify the $50,000 race if it is the highest for the day and there are less $ races.
the merit of this can be seen on sunday where A Grade won the last at Warrnambool qualified at Doomben in 2/08. This satisfies the desperate desire to have a bet particularly when 16/1 was offered.
I must admit I have no great expectation from racing but its nice to back a winner without getting in too deep. this is why the longer prices satisfy the urge to have a bet with a reasonable result.
Ref tonight for Bank Robber will be very hard to beat but not much value for punters like me.
My approach can be quite dumb as I went into the TAB at Smithton last week to check the price on With Decorum when it was $3.80 I didnt back anything but that wasn't bright as after it won $3.80 looked pretty good.

Canterbury Classic
 

Nice result, Twodogs.

You did well yourself Jackact!!!

Thanks to Topsy99
 

Hey Jackact

I have been a form person most of my punting life so I did the points and then looked at the contenders.

Bank Robber hasn't won below 1150m and that was a maiden!

Which left me with 2,4 and 5. Pins on Parade was scratched so down to 2 and 5. News Alert ran a great race first up and was today back to a better weight whereas Kenny's World had run well at Canterbury before at 1100m but not as well as News Alert.

News Alert paid $6 Top Fluc and Kenny's World was $10 Top Fluc. It would seem prices up to double figures would be best top fluc otherwise get on at best tote.

As Topsy has said though too many igredients and I will over cook the approach so I remain with training wheels on.

Cheers
Twodogs

exotics
 

Okay Topsy,

Just that I had noticed some good wins among the black type contenders where all placegetters had gained points but that would also mean long runs of outs chasing the big one ( if it came before your bank dried up)

Cheers
Twodogs

Your advice appreciated Topsy
 

Thanks for your words of wisdom Topsy!

I think our databases will always be a little different but I have taken on board what you have said about the better races other than black type.

Bank Robber to me was a false fav so the price seemed silly ( My opinion though) and the race looked ripe for some value and I do like your approach from the point of view of the odds you can get for a winner.

Regards
Twodogs

Weekend
 

Good Morning Topsy,

Didn't seem to be much on offer on the weekend how did you get on? Interested in your thoughts as maybe I missed something that I could go back to and have another look at and maybe learn something.

Cheers
Twodogs