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Only excel and a good knowledge of how to use it because you need to combine formula with macros
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This is very intertesting and will require more research. Good Luck |
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You can always pick selections priced under the middle tab $$$ as an alternate way of laying these, just a thought and I haven't tested it. |
Loss of about 73 units today but the strike rate was a bit down at 77% 31 selections 7 accidents but still in profit from thursday.
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I am going to try the $7-$40 price range today but will still be laying to a fixed liability
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Selections 20
Wins 19 Accidents 1 Profit $99 Not bad only betting on 2 venues, i find fixed liability a better option as i know my max loss per race. |
Selections 62
Wins 59 Accidents 3 Profit $249 I am glad i layed to liability that runner in race 7 belmont i layed @$48 |
Shaun were you betting the $7- $40 range yesterday ?
I had 63 lays and you only had 20 ? I hit 3 winners being Towsville R1, Gellong R6 and Geelong R9. |
I didn't lay the winner in Belmont R7. I had the low odds record at $39 which meant it could be up to $46.80 . The recorded betfair odds I had at the time my program checked was $50.
Maybe its due to the odds being used. I use the pink side of betfair (those wanting to take the bet) and not the other side (current lay odds). If the odds are not under lowest tote*1.20 then I don't place a lay. |
Not Geelong as for some reason VFG does not cover it with there RTO and i missed a couple races due to a mistake i put in my excel sheet so it didn't fire but yes the $7-$40 range.
Today i went up to $50 and the only selection i had over $30 was that winner and only 1 selection yesterday was over $30 I had 2 venues on Saturday not covered by VFG so they are excluded for me, i can only bet on those that show a price in RTO. So far i have used small stakes my actual liability is $5 but i am planning on putting a bank towards this method, i will start with 5% liability per race, if there are multiple sections this will work out to less than 5% |
My prices are imported 30 seconds untill the off then updated at 20 seconds, first bet is placed 15 seconds untill off then odds rechecked to see if any new selections at 5 seconds untill off, once the advertised start time is reached no more bets are placed so if the race is delayed and prices change i have no control but am happy with this setup.
The thing i will be looking at is how many runners i have selected at different odds ranges. |
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Just to clarify Prices in BLUE columns are Backers Prices (BF-WAP, BF, BF-SP) Price in Pink column is Layers Price We * the lowest TAB price by 1.2 (20%)and add to TAB price, if the resulting figure is greater than the available price (Betfair PINK) it becomes a lay bet. (TAB $39.00*1.2 = $46.80) (BF PINK Price = $42.00) Is this correct? |
Not much action for me today even though i was working on 5 meetings plus betfair ******** itself and i missed a couple races..
Selections 36 Wins 33 Accidents 3 Profit -$30 Thats the problem with high priced selections just a few winners can upset things, still going well. |
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Yes thats right. I guess a lot of it depends on when you pick up your prices. over time (1000's of bets) it shouldn't matter much though. |
For those of you that are writing programs to make this work, how hard is it to learn how to do the programming? Can anyone offer any advice for someone looking to get started in this, any good books to read? Is it something that anyone could teach themself or is it pretty advanced and need more specialist training?
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no programming needed thorns, just betting assistant & an intermediate knowledge of excel
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I don't mind helping anyone out with the code for excel and Betting Assistent but i can't supply a sheet as this is not my method so you will need to work for it.
Like any method this one has it's ups and down and no way i could say it is a long term winner. at this time. |
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You will benefit greatly from learning to program in the long run. I suggest dotNet or Java. You can pick up a "teach yourself xxx in 21 days" book from most bookstores or libraries. |
Hi gents,
Just throwing a few ideas out there for discussion. 1/ Could you refine wesmip1's lay system to any horse within .10 of the lowest tab div instead of .20? My point being that the Betfair win ledger normally runs at about 103% and the Tab's are at 118%, so: 118- 103- 005 (Betfair commission) = 110 Just an idea.... 2/ Backing method: Have you tried the opposite and only back horses at 20 percent above the highest tab price? The Schmile |
I am going to try a change to the staking and and lay 1 runner to lose and any other selections to return an even result.
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I am happy with the results today
35 Selections 34 wins 1 loss The loss was a zero result thats fine Profit $204.80 |
22 Selections
20 wins 2 loss Loss $36 Think i like my old way of staking there just does not seam like enough money on the winners. |
111 Selections
102 wins 9 loss Profit $12 Talk about highs and lows, i got up to almost $400 in front untill i hit a few losers. including the last 2 in belmont these WA races seam to always bring me unstuck. |
how is this going guys?
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I have moved on to other things, lays were never my thing but would be interested in knowing if still good.
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I am going to bring this thread back to life as i see how things are going with this method.
4 meetings to cover for me today will let you all know how it goes. Rules for me 20% higher than lowest Tab Price Range $7-$30 Fixed Lay $5 |
Good luck Shaun, I think this method has merit as you dont lay the horses that offer too much value.
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26 Selections
2 Accidents -3.7 units Breakdown of prices $7-$12/16 loss 1 $12.10-$20/10 loss 1 |
TAB plus 20 per cent
When you talk about the lowest TAB price do you mean the TAB pool of the TAB fixed odds. How would adding 20 per cent to the TAB fixed odds work out with your system. I often see the Betfair prices much higher than fixed odds; sometimes several dollars higher. Do think think that for lay betting strategies that it would be a reasonable guide to accept fixed odd plus 20 per cent.
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hendo,
I don't think wesmip1 hangs around here anymore. Looks like an interesting post though. My guess is it probably works with fixed prices but I wouldn't use 20%. I would use 10%. |
I ran it through my data from the last ~9 months & showed a small loss around 2%, & actually it improved pushing out to 30% - would take a fair amount of live trialling to establish some workable parameters I would think.
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norisk thanks for running that. 2% loss is not bad. What was the profit for 30% and can you give the profit/loss for 10%. And one more test if possible. Do any odds ranges show a better profit ? ie under <$5 or ($5 to $20) or $20+ |
Hi UB, the 2% loss was for 30% $1 to $16 SP - will run a few scenarios & get back over the next few days
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thank you I looked at this today and decided on identifying all the horses in each race which were unders according to fixed prices or all three totes. I then picked one horse to lay from those. I stuck to the les than $30 range. So far its done well with 18 selections for no winners and the odds I am laying at are generally a lot less then the final betfair price (could trade out of them) and in some cases lower then all 3 totes. |
from a sample of 1 week a month for the last 9 months
SP $1-$16 10% tatts codes, BR, MR, NR, SR, VR >=9 starters collect $2874 bets $2644 net $230 8.7% pot net of 6.5% comm hmm, plot thickens;) will run the full 9 months tonight |
SP $1-$16
10% tatts codes, BR, MR, NR, SR, VR >=9 starters collect $8992 bets $9002 net $-10 -0.1% pot net of 6.5% comm |
SP $1-$40
10% -7.1 pot |
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