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I have been going over a few figures and would like some input from members.
These are my current stats. Outlay 34 Units Return 47.42 Units Profit 13.42 Units SR 32.35% POT 39.47% AV/Odds $4.31 Early days but figures are ok, my issue is when i bring a new horse in to the stable i allocate 19 units to be bet on the runner, i did this so i wouldn't bring in more runners than my bank could handle. The thing is am i going to need all those units for each runner, the answer i am getting from the figures and the fact the research i have done shows NO If i convert the runs in to a percentage of bet that i would have on runners using a normal betting pattern say 2% this would be a total of 14% over 7 runs, if i convert the units to percentage this would be 19% Looking at the average starts after a spell that i get a win would be about 4 or 5 using my units allocation this would be about 6% to 9% So if you follow what i have just said the question would be, should i be worried about my bank being able to cover each runner going all the way to 19 units bet or should i just use a percentage of bank for each unit and let the turn over maintain the bank? |
I think "don't worry". What you are talking about is the worst case scenario. The longer you test this on paper, the more you will be able to avoid worst case scenario and the more you may come to realise that 19 units are never reached.
Does that help? Anyone else? |
I would agree getting to 19 units on most runners is unlikely.
April 28 SURVIVAL WYONG R8 No.5 (1350m) |
April 29
RUN KYLIE RUN IPSWICH R5 No.3 (1100m) 1 Unit PYROGRAPHY MUSWELLBROOK R6 No.6 (1000m) 1 Unit |
April 30
LUCID REFLECTION ALICE SPRINGS R7 No.2 (1200m) 1 Unit CURTANA CAULFIELD R3 No.2 (1000m) 1 Unit FILLYDELPHIA EAGLE FARM R6 No.17 (1600m) 1 Unit ALBERT THE FAT EAGLE FARM R7 No.1 (1200m) 1 Unit ZERO ROCK EAGLE FARM R7 No.5 (1200m) 1 Unit BUFFERING EAGLE FARM R7 No.6 (1200m) 1 Unit FAVELA STAR EAGLE FARM R8 No.12 (1200m) 1 Unit GLINTZ HAWKESBURY R3 No.8 (1400m) 1 Unit DYSPHONIA HAWKESBURY R5 No.2 (1300m) 1 Unit DEVILS ARCADE HAWKESBURY R5 No.8 (1300m) 1 Unit |
Code:
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May 01
POWER PRINCESS NORTHAM R7 No.11 (1100m) 1 Unit SHOCK VALUE NORTHAM R7 No.4 (1100m) 1 Unit BLACKSMITH NORTHAM R7 No.6 (1100m) 1 Unit LIGHT TAN PENOLA R7 No.2 (1300m) 1 Unit RUMOUR AND SCANDAL SANDOWN LAKESIDE R5 No.10 (1200m) 1 Unit |
POWER PRINCESS +2.06
LIGHT TAN +2.68 RUMOUR AND SCANDAL +4.24 Current Stable Code:
Outlay 51 Units Return 73.45 Units Profit 22.45 Units SR 35.29% POT 44.02% AV/Odds $4.08 |
Will endeavour to assist.....
if you can give me the following figures:
1. the number of bets you have had. 2. units outlayed ( have all the bets been for a single unit or have some progressed up?) 3. Total return ( including stake). if you are showing a profit @ level stakes i.e. sames number of units for every bet, you don't need to allocate 19 units to each runner, you just need sufficient bank to cover the inevitable run of outs. Gerry |
Also, of course, need the number...
of winners you've had.
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The figures in my last post would answer those questions, this is very new so figures have had no time to develop i am still on the first unit of bets with only 3 runners on the the second bet of 1 unit.
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Your figures.....
51 x 1 unit bets
for 18 collects (winners) at $3.08 to $1 or $4.08 average odds of your winners, indicate that as it stands at present you have a 14.28% advantage over the Tote / Bookies and according to the Kelly Criterion this is the percentage of your bank you should bet every time to maximise your profit! However, I wouldn't recommend that course of action, because if, and it will, (maybe it already has) a run of 7 outs in a row comes along, your bank will have been wiped out! You seem to be on the right track, but I would be waiting for a much bigger sample, say 500 or even 1,000 theoretical bets to get more reliable data. Good luck, Gerry |
5 runners in the one race not exactly ideal but oh well.
May 04 RUE MAPLE WARRNAMBOOL R6 No.10 (1200m) 1 Unit BY THE WAY WARRNAMBOOL R6 No.14 (1200m) 1 Unit UXORIOUS WARRNAMBOOL R6 No.19 (1200m) 1 Unit SNAPPARAZI WARRNAMBOOL R6 No.5 (1200m) 1 Unit GLANEUSE WARRNAMBOOL R6 No.6 (1200m) 1 Unit RAIN MELODY WARWICK FARM R5 No.3 (1100m) 1 Unit |
UXORIOUS +5.11
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May 05
HOW MUCH MY LOVE WAGGA WAGGA R7 No.12 (1200m) 1 Unit SHANTY WAGGA WAGGA R7 No.17 (1200m) 1 Unit KING COTTON WARRNAMBOOL R7 No.14 (1100m) 1 Unit |
HOW MUCH MY LOVE + 7.74
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May 06
FREE SPIRITED WAGGA WAGGA R4 No.1 (1000m) 1 Unit SNIPPERETTE WAGGA WAGGA R6 No.9 (1400m) 1 Unit BIG BONANZA WAGGA WAGGA R8 No.15 (1200m) 1 Unit |
May 07
CLUELESS ANGEL BELMONT R6 No.4 (1300m) 1 Unit GLOBAL FLIRT BELMONT R7 No.2 (1400m) 1 Unit UNANIMOUSLY CANTERBURY R4 No.3 (1100m) 1 Unit RHYTHM OF DANCE CANTERBURY R8 No.4 (1550m) 1 Unit YULALONA CANTERBURY R8 No.9 (1550m) 1 Unit TINTERN FLEMINGTON R6 No.4 (1600m) 1 Unit STREETS AWAY GOLD COAST R3 No.8 (1400m) 1 Unit SIGURDARDOTTIR GOLD COAST R5 No.13 (1200m) 1 Unit FASTER SON GOLD COAST R6 No.12 (1300m) 1 Unit MEET GEORGE GOLD COAST R6 No.13 (1300m) 1 Unit RIGHTFULLY YOURS GOLD COAST R6 No.3 (1300m) 1 Unit THANKGODYOU'REHERE GOLD COAST R6 No.4 (1300m) 1 Unit SHOOT OUT GOLD COAST R7 No.3 (1800m) 1 Unit MILITARY ROSE GOLD COAST R8 No.13 (1200m) 1 Unit SURVIVAL NEWCASTLE R4 No.5 (1400m) 1 Unit MISS IMAGICA TOOWOOMBA CUSHION R5 No.1 (1050m) 1 Unit |
Millitary Rose +18.30
Unanimously +2.13 Nice win today will celebrate tonight |
May 08
MASTER GAZE GUNNEDAH R8 No.1 (1000m) 1 Unit TOORAK TOFF MORPHETTVILLE R7 No.3 (1200m) 1 Unit |
Earlier you said you average hit is on race 4 or 5 so what if you reduce your 19 units by 4 or 5 races and watch the horse for 3 or 4 races and then begin at the horses 4th or 5th race?
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Not my average but the average of horses from a spell, you may have noticed not all selection are from a spell if they have not won and i can see a spell in the form lines and they meet the other criteria then they are a selections.
I will post some results tomorrow but i have about 43 horses in the stable, not sure how big i will make the stable i am sure at some point i will relax and wait for selections to run again |
Current Stable
Code:
Outlay 79 Units Return 111.46 Units Profit 32.46 Units SR 27.85% POT 41.09% AV/Odds $5.07 |
May 10
ACHILL ISLAND TOWNSVILLE R5 No.3 (1200m) 1 Unit |
Jeez Shaun
ya got more horses than the Aga Khan!! LOL
Gerry |
Here is a few more to add to the list, there are 2 issues with following a stable of runners
1 Boredom to have enough action to keep you happy. 2 Funds, to have enough money to fund the idea between wins. Now i have set this up to win if my runners pays $3 or more at any one of 7 starts, you could decide to just invest the same amount on each selection and take the loss after so many runs depending on price so if you have taken it for 4 runs it would need to pay better than $5 on the 5th run, sound fair enough. I would not say i have set my standards high or have a very selective method but the truth is there are a lot of maybes running around midweek so not so many selections. May 11 SHAWAIM BELMONT R7 No.1 (1400m) 1 Unit ISABELLA MAREE BELMONT R8 No.9 (1000m) 1 Unit MIKIYAMA KENSINGTON R4 No.5 (1550m) 1 Unit BYZANTINE KENSINGTON R6 No.2 (1400m) 1 Unit STRIKE THE TIGER SANDOWN HILLSIDE R6 No.12 (1000m) 1 Unit |
MIKIYAMA +4.03
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May 12
MASTER GAZE KEMPSEY @ PORT MACQUARIE R6 No.1 (1012m)1 Unit |
May 13
BEREFT SCONE R5 No.3 (1300m) 1 Unit MURRAY'S SUN SCONE R6 No.8 (1100m) 1 Unit DYSPHONIA SCONE R7 No.9 (1600m) 1 Unit |
Since i have switched all my betting to Sportsbet i will be posting divs from there.
DYSPHONIA +10.4 |
May 14
ROYAL DEVOTION BELMONT R4 No.4 (1600m) 1 Unit GLOBAL FLIRT BELMONT R5 No.1 (1600m) 2 Units BROOKESMEBABY BELMONT R6 No.6 (1400m) 1 Unit WARATAH'S SECRET BELMONT R7 No.2 (1200m) 1 Unit SHOCK VALUE BELMONT R7 No.9 (1200m) 1 Unit KERRIFIC BELMONT R8 No.2 (1200m) 1 Unit REVERBERATES CAULFIELD R3 No.5 (1200m) 1 Unit ELUMINO CAULFIELD R6 No.4 (1100m) 1 Unit BALAVAN CAULFIELD R6 No.5 (1100m) 1 Unit LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT CAULFIELD R8 No.4 (1400m) 1 Unit CARRY THE CLUBS DOOMBEN R2 No.1 (1010m) 1 Unit CARIAD DOOMBEN R2 No.9 (1010m) 1 Unit WORK THE ROOM DOOMBEN R3 No.15 (1350m)1 Unit STREETS AWAY DOOMBEN R5 No.15 (2020m) 2 Units FILLYDELPHIA DOOMBEN R6 No.15 (2020m) 2 Units ALBERT THE FAT DOOMBEN R7 No.4 (1200m) 1 Unit TIGHTROPE DOOMBEN R8 No.10 (1200m)1 Unit GOOD MEDICINE DOOMBEN R8 No.2 (1200m) 1 Unit JENELLE ROCKHAMPTON R3 No.6 (1100m) 1 Unit SAVAGE HEMLINE ROCKHAMPTON R4 No.5 (1050m) 1 Uinit GOBOU ROCKHAMPTON R6 No.2 (1200m) 1 Unit MYALLA GOLD SCONE R5 No.14 (1100m) 1 Unit PLAYFUL MISS SCONE R6 No.15 (1100m) 1 Unit LA REMLAP SCONE R6 No.4 (1100m) 1 Unit GREAT MAN TOOWOOMBA CUSHION R2 No.3 (1200m) 1 Unit |
I opened an account with Tom Waterhouse today because he offers Best Tote on all races sounds like the best offer around for provincial and country races, to bad they have removed Best of Best for metro races.
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CARRY THE CLUBS +3
FILLYDELPHIA +15.8 GREAT MAN +1.2 I am going to cut back on adding runners from Saturday races as there are a lot included now, will still be adding from midweek. |
May 15
ROCK OF SOLITUDE KALGOORLIE R7 No.7 (1100m) 1 Unit GOPANA WARWICK FARM R5 No.12 (1600m) 1 Unit |
Current Stable
Code:
Outlay 116 Units Return 155.89 Units Profit 39.89 Units SR 23.89% POT 34.39% AV/Odds $5.41 |
May 16
SNIPPERETTE ALBURY R4 No.3 (1400m) 1 Unit |
SNIPPERETTE +3.6
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May 17
RUN KYLIE RUN MACKAY R2 No.1 (1050m) 1 Unit VERSARY PAKENHAM R6 No.3 (1000m) 1 Unit |
May 18
MISS CONFIDENTIAL CANTERBURY R7 No.1 (1250m) 1 Unit BARBIE'S BOMBSHELL SANDOWN LAKESIDE R4 No.3 (1200m) 1 Unit FASHION BLACK SANDOWN LAKESIDE R7 No.10 (1400m) 1 Unit SUMMER DREAM SANDOWN LAKESIDE R8 No.17 (1200m) 1 Unit |
Ok who crunched on BARBIE'S BOMBSHELL the best price i got was $3.70
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