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long run of outs
I said in another post if a run of outs is ok if the odds are high but the facts seem to point to a loser in the long run as the odds are not high----- however if Try Try has a long past history or someone else can use data to say a profit is possible then I would maybe think again but thats 12 outs in 2 days !!!! and small odds since tips were posted------ still a worry .
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Job123 - Ye of little faith!
This is not the time to panic it's the time to bet up!! Only 2 places yesterday from the 7 selections ($1.60 & $1.90) Today's possible selections are:- Mornington R2#2 Colony Mornington R6#5 Black Artois Mornington R8#5 Clinches Mornington R9#3 Retaliate Goulburn R3#1 Geemeup Goulburn R5#2 Tuscan Power |
Sorry Try it was all "MY" fault,......... I posted congratulations !!!!!!
anyway I'm sure it will recover! |
I reckon this one could be a long term winner as your using the best rating service in the country.
I personally dont bet on dead tracks as I,m risk aversive but the prices are such that over time the prices should counter any losses. Cheers and good luck with it. darky |
Today's results were:-
Mornington R2#2 Colony 3rd -/$1.50 Mornington R6#5 Black Artois 3rd -/$3.40 Mornington R8#5 Clinches Won $4.50/$2.30 Mornington R9#3 Retaliate unpl Goulburn R3#1 Geemeup unpl Goulburn R5#2 Tuscan Power unpl Of the 11 unplaced runners in the past 3 days these were their SP:- $2.50, $3.20, $4.00, $4.20, $4.40, $4.60 (2), $5.50 (3) and $6.00 which would indicate they were "favoured" in the market OR were they overbet because they are the Don Scott favourite. |
profit
Try Try do not pay any attention to darky dog he lies and posts a crap system The long term result of any system requires value in the tote prices with dons scott top rater you have just said the favs = don scott top. To have a hope of this working go back and look at your past results and look at the top of ds top where it meets a price of 5 or 6 or 7 or 8 or more dollers(tote price just before the jump ) and see it a profit it made .
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No selections today due to track conditions being worse than Dead.
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Hi Job123,
I looked at your suggestion of only considering contenders with an SP of >=$5.00. In the past 38 bets, there would have only been 3 winners, the bank would have dropped by 1/3 and would currently be on a 18 losing streak - Scary stuff! An aspect I will look at are the class of races being thrown up. |
If you fogot the 2.00 3.60 rule ( still ds top ) I remember a big odds winner not long ago . might be worth looking into .
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What other filters can you all suggest? Maybe cutting selections >5.00 as you have already said that all those selections returned a loss.
What about DS's 2nd fav? or 3rd? Better value? |
Hi Job123,
Using the $2.00 to $3.60 DS rated horses increased the Win Strike rate and returned an increase in Bank of 64.6 units (prior to the other rules being implemented). Hi Max, I have only looked at the DS favourite so I do not have any information on DS's 2nd or 3rd favourites. Recently a qualifier that started at $14.00 SP paid only $9.20 although I got $17.00 on IASBet. The results I tabulate (for consistency) are best of NSW or VIC Tab's so I listed it at $9.20. |
Only 1 possible selection today
Hawkesbury R5#4 River Press |
I looked at your suggestion of only considering contenders with an SP of >=$5.00. In the past 38 bets, there would have only been 3 winners, the bank would have dropped by 1/3 and would currently be on a 18 losing streak - Scary stuff!
Todays horse at 6 minutes to 12 pm is showing 13 dollars on both nsw and vic tabs( pre post 11$ ) so what if its more than 5 dollars just before the jump according to the above it would be wrong to bet on it ? |
The horse was unplaced so a new rule of no bet if 5.00 dollers or over is a good idea .
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Or that way would work as well. !
The point is to look at filters that contribute to your winnings amd/or filters that reduce your losses. Not choosing selections that are >=5.00 looks like a good start. |
new system .
Just saw in race 7 at syd today dons scott top winning rated at 5.00 dollars and paying 16 dollars in vic totes. So Try Try says the top rater loses if its 2.00 to 3.60 range and is 5.00 dallars or more sp That brings up a new system rule 1 ----5.00 or higher DS top 2-------must be 5.00 dollars or more sp-- the horse was also within the top 4 of the nurals cp rank so thats the 3rd rule keen to know if anyone has data to find if this is a good system in the long run .
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I can't understand why people start looking to change things when there are a few loses.
I've only just starter looking at this forum last week, I have put the selections in from Thursday last week into a staking plan and we are still $250 ahead with a starting bank of $400. I will continue to enter the details as TRY TRY Again posts and see what happens. |
Aye Aye Pete.
Punting is a mugs game. 95% of the fraternity are losers. They have to be to pay the 5% that win. The rest put in and take out enough to be enticed to put in again. Now take the time to see where all the long time forum members are. The ones that are savvy. They have changed to laying. even some which are not computer savvy have moved. You make a system and trial it in real time with real money. If it is a goer then you put a staking plan to it to match the results. Altering it all the time throws money away. You are going to get good days and bad days and a few horrible runs. If the system is a good one and the staking plan is the correct match then it will survive and flourish. If not ditch it. Take the positives and try make another system. You cannot fix something if it is fundamently flawed. |
You make a system and trial it in real time with real money. If it is a goer then you put a staking plan to it to match the results---- to beton how do you determin if its a goer as you say . All I want to know is if anyone can test this system of mine here are the rules RULE 1 Top rated Don SCOTT 5$ or more RULE 2 sp 5 dollars and higher Rule 3 winthin top 4 cp nurals Rule 4 dead/good tracks in melbourne and sydney no city meetings Rule 5 8 to 13 runners only .
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JOB123 - post the selections and i'll throw them into the staking plan.
You didn't specify if there were 2 DS top raters what happens and whether it's a win only, place only, EW or 1:4 bet |
Spot on Pete.Why change a winning formula.
Why research past reults ? Past results bear no relation to future results. There are just too many variables in a race to have something duplicated exactly.Its a exercise in futility. The author has developed a sensible set of rules that work for him and the only way he can test it is future races. Cheers darky |
Job123
Firstly you make sure that your system has some merit. Top DS has that. Research (just looking at past forum posts will do) will show you that by themselves they will not produce a positive. You apply your rules and see if you can check against a database of past results. This may even require digging up past results yourself. If you are satisfied of the potential then test it with $1 bets. In a week you will know without a doubt whether to persevere with it or not. Then you ask yourself whether the risk reward ratio is worth it. As Pete says it is working. You are trying to tweak it. have some small bets on it. Compare the two. You are asking to compare on SP. In real time nobody knows what this will be. It has to be to your parameters, your emotions. Beton |
Hi Job123,
I do not have the Neural information for your selections but using the other 4 rules (from 20th March 2011 using best of NSW and Vic totes) 35 bets 3 winners Win Collect $40.30 Win Profit $5.30 13 Places Place Collect $36.40 Place Profit $1.40 |
There are no selections today due to large fields at Scone and <1200m races at Geelong.
Interestingly the Synthetic track at Geelong has thrown up 11 selections before today for no winners and 5 placings ($1.50, $1.70 twice, $1.80 and $2.20). I will keep an eye on this track for future selections. |
new system
RULE 1 Top rated Don SCOTT 3.70 to 4.95 or RULE 2-- sp 4 dollars and higher Rule rule 3 dead/good tracks in melbourne and sydney no city meetings Rule 4- 8 to 13 runners only . rule 5 greater than 1200 metres Try Try can you test this system .
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TRY TRY
Did you miss one today or did i get the rules wrong Geelong Rc2 No10 Varella 2000m | 9 starters | 3yo maiden | good track | $2.80 DS rated 2nd @ $2.20 |
As a noob I don't undersand the "melbourne or sydney no city tracks"?
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new system
RULE 1 Top rated Don SCOTT 3.70 to 4.95 RULE 2-- sp 4 dollars and higher Rule rule 3 dead/good tracks in melbourne and sydney no city(metro) meetings Rule 4- 8 to 13 runners only . rule 5 greater than 1200 metres .Rule 6 within 21 days last start . Try Try can you test this system please .
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There is only one possible selection today
Kembla Grange R3#5 Purring Flyer Pete The Punter - Varella was an Open Maiden i.e. 3yo+ Maiden so was not a selection unfortunate as it paid $2.20 the place! Job123 - I can not test for Days since last started but your original rules gave 57 selections 6 winners (one was $20.90) for total collect of $49.60 LOT 13.0%, 19 places (one was $11.90) for total collect $56.00 LOT 1.8%. There are 3 possible selections today (depending on SP) Scone R2#6 Walpersdorf Kembla Grange R5#5 Sherwoods Choice Kembla Grange R6#2 La Comedienne |
Quote:
I think the confusion is from using Melbourne/Sydney instead of Vic/NSW non metro tracks are Provincial/Country tracks which I believe you are referring to (I think) |
Purring Flyer ran 3rd paying $1.80
Job123 - You ended up with 2 unplaced runners and La Comedienne which won ($5.10/$1.80) but did not qualify since its SP was $3.50. |
Try
No Problem, missed the + next to 3yo. Just checking some other info for the day. what about 13/5/11 Geelong Rc7#12 Parma Pete |
Hi Pete the Punter,
I had Charming Sophie as the selection at $3.90 and it ran unplaced. |
Where did Charming Sophie Come from?? |
Just Trialling some things, let's see how these go
Not sure about track conditions as yet
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No selections for today
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Hi Pete The Punter,
You can not go back and look at the previous days selections because after the days races the information is updated and the "selections" change depending on the results of the race. You need to get the info on the day and work from these. |
Fair enough, i didn't realise that, I stand corrected
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WF Rc1 #7 1st $1.50|$1.04
WF Rc3 #1 Unpl WF Rc4 #1 Unpl WF Rc6 #3 1st $3.70 | $1.50 Hor Rc3 #5 Scratched Hor Rc5 #6 Unpl Cran Rc4 #8 Scratched Cran Rc6 #1 2nd $2.60 Cran Rc7 #2 Unpl |
Where can I get the Don Scott tips from?
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