Hi Bahgwan,
Yesterday playing on paper for all its worth i DID increase the loosing ones by 50%, the forgetting of the first and second favs (or as far as i could tell on the TAB at the time) produced 13 races, 8 returns, outlay 900 units, return was 1187 units, i guess that works out at 32% POT ?.
Every 50 unit bet that loss was increased to 100 then that won, not too bad, BUT THATS ON PAPER !!. It will be interesting to see what Puntzs' remote control, reclyning, coffee making, all singing and dancing whiz bang computer scanner (i want one though) comes up with on Sunday afternoon.

Cheers and Good luck.
Dingo

Dingo,
you can make them ya self.
All ya need is to get a old game' smthing or rather computer game set at a garage sale ( the lable is scratched, so is the serial number, and make sure buttons work)and a house alarm with dial up.The type that, "rings the security crowd and they ring you" type). ( remeber to change the the number, so it rings YOU and not THEM)
You convert the dial up chipset in the house alarm so it fits the cable in the usb port. Then you cable the game-set so it fits in the coverted house alarm.
Then from the usb port, you make your spreadsheet connect,somehow.
The dial-up in the house alarm actualy rings the TAB. You pre-record messages,(so they think it's you) and let's say, it's MR01 10 units on 3
You record all the bits and pieces of information, file it alphabeticaly and numericaly, the spreadhseet does the rest)
From there, the imagination is limitless.You can tell it to do almost anything!

I do have sounds though, one is cash register sound. But it has a glitch.
The glitch is, when it results, the cash register sounds, but it sounds on both won and loss races, and I only want to to sound on the win races, ya know ?, like, do I HAVE to keep checking all the time??
geez, when will these programmers ever get it right !!??
Oh yeah, and ya realy do need a programmer to do the yuk stuff with the usb port thingy, can't help ya there though, sorry about that.

Hi Dingoboy,
That was an impressive result.
Did you run with the 1st idea or the 2nd idea (odds of top 2 being less than 3rd selection)

BTW,
to keep the focus, balance at this stage is not that important.
What is important in my opinion is strike rate,win/loss streak.

Need more info
 

To create a successful staking plan, you need to know what you will be dutching....
If you are working on a 50% win strike rate you could increase by about 120% and decrease by about 80%. You need to accurately determine your strike rate though, I don't think you can pick your own horses. I think you would have to dutch the first 3 favourites or anything under $10 or something similar.

Without knowing a reasonably accurate and consistant strike rate, you cannot create a staking plan for it.... If you were to dutch the 3 longest horses in each race and use the figures I quoted, by the time you had a winner the bet would be so high that you would back the horses right in anyway.

Oh, and you must use fixed odds......

Bahgwan,

After much consideration and advice, I have to ask you first, do you want your parameter findings posted, or sent privately by email first ?
What you do from there is up to you.

Hi Punz,
Feel free to post your findings .
Thanks for that.

Look at the spreadsheet. I have copied and pasted the races it selected,the cost,total units on that hedged bet,if it won, what it paid and units on the winning horse.
What else is there to show ? They are simply the parameters posted.
The Spreadsheet is called 2-4 cos 2 Favs out,next 4 in.

3 days is not enough to give this test any justice.
But, it can be done so I'll let this setting run on it's own and when time permits....

These settings are extremely tight, 13 races in all since Friday were suited.

You will see where it did a chase, these chase figurse are high because you have chosen to hedge 4.
My math on the 7500 is based on 3

I'll explain later on the NZ race and the 120.
I don't have time to do technical corrections.

Hi Bahgwan,

My "method" was this.
I watched the fav win at that venue, then set the next race for the bet.
I deleted the fav if it was short (less than 4) at 5 mins prior and took the next four runners most of which run around at between 6.5-7-10s, when that won i did the same in the next two races from another venue, when a favourite wins, thats when i look at the next race.
I cant "back test" this for example get to work this morning and go through the TAb results as they dont show 5 mins prior to jump nor what was the "real fav", so its a pretty much live test for this black duck.

It works,....but i dont think i have the bank nor the bal_s for playing with it for real.

Puntzs' figures look interesting !

Cheers Dingo

Love your work Puntz, love it!
Dingo

Dingo...so your backing on the fact a fav won't win 2 races in a row...interesting

Gday Shaun,

Well,...thats sort of the idea id been playing with.
Like i said, i havent got the flashy computer test capabilities that some have but ive looked at some returns and they can be very high, especially if staked correctly with MASSIVE bank and a longy gets up at 9 or ten, THATS WHAT i was thinking might make it pay, i dont know,...just a thought,

keep an eye on races that fit maybe and have a look for yourself,.......might work. ???


It just seems to me (and this is partly where this idea came from and reading the forum) that when i would go and have an ale or two at the local (and i dont mix punt with ale) that i saw SO MANY "punters" on the fav or second Fav, you know them, "old mate said" and "always back the second horse in the market". Its so intruiging to watch them bet favourites and loose four times in a row and then start putting on trifectas or quinellas to try to recoup the loss, ....then their 1.8 fav comes in and the tri pays $53,

I dont know,....im just a place better.
Cheers dingo

corrections-summary
 

20050110 16:28:33 --> balance : $ 7508.00

================================================== ====

Ok
Had to correct a few things,mainly to do with my own
typing.
Missed a race, so the spreadsheet has been corrected,
the sums now match the logfile from the scanner.


Glitch.
20050108YR09
I have not searched or read a report about that race.
Apparantly it was abandoned, the scanner does
not "know" it was abandoned, so it went ahead and calculated
a bet, "sent" it, and there was no result.
An override thingy fixes these things when it occurs and sums
adjusted accordingly.
In reality, if it was a live bet, the $ would
not have been accepted anyway.

The streak is the important thing to observe.
The scanner was able to scan and log every race today
without a hitch.

Credits.
My programmer.
Mentors and Mathemeticians,
you know who you are !


Thank You.

PS
the yellow section in the spreadsheet is where I found my own typo
errors.

Hi puntz,
That was an interesting test.
I note the increase of 3 fold .
I also noted ,that races with fav paying less than the $3.80 were targeted , is there a reason for that?

Hi Dingo Boy,
That`s an interesting angle of yours , I`ll have to research that a little further , I have noted in the past that it is rare for 2 favs get up in a row & this angle has a lot of merit.

Cheers.

wrong thread corrected
 

this is meant to be here, don't how it got posted on the other thread.
sorry.


Bhagwan ( got spelliung right this time)

Which race in particular ?

The market prices change every 30 seconds.

I have looked at, "the better time", and well, unless one can have a gigantic database with what-if's and try out every 30 second update,even then that cannot be accurate, and for what reason Vs the time it will take?
Why DO the markets "move"? ( matter of factly)
Is today proposed "movements" going to be better today cos it worked yesterday or the day before ?

My own conclusion came to, "who cares, Heres a race, get it on, win one lose another..win etc...so ya structure a game plan, "how you play".
I asked a proffesional, but retired poker player, he said the same thing.
Cards are cards.A race is a race, deal with it on the moment.

Gut feel has served me better at times thasn stats.

So I chose a time of market prices, weee'll, you tell me what time update ya want, 5 mins, 10, 2 mins prior to race start to make your selections ?
Big question actualy.
When ?

mondays paper results dutch style
 

Hi guys,
My paper dutch results for monday, no melbourne as its too hard to pick winners down there.

12 bets, 11 results
out units 600, in units 1017
profit 417, POT 69.5% ???????????

minimum bet 50 units, increase by 100 % on loss, went to 100 units ONCE.

dutching four nags leaving out ANYTHING under 3.8 (4) except the two races the fav came in late on TAb 3.4 and 3.3,

i bet today it blows out badly !


Now thats not even doing it right, ive just divided the number of runners (4) into either 50 units (12.5) or 100 (25), should have done it the percentage way and return would have been better.

?????DINGOBOY????

http://www.crowncity.com/speedplus/hedgehog.html


This author here would have a very comprehensive dedge calculator and manuals on dutch betting.
many ideas and variations can be obtained.There is a download of the paperwork if you want to make your own hedge calculator, worth it's salt.

here is just a plain dutch calculator that will produce $100 profit...or $100 return...you make the choice.....and if you want either of those two programs i will make them up in excel if you want

Dingo....what tab were you using for your tests...i checked Unitab and from the 14 races not including Stony Creek i found 2 bets and one of then won so was only 1 winning race

Hi Saun,

NSW TAB about five before jump (or close too it as i work whilst looking).

Here are the "paper" bets, i think they are right

Provincial

Race selections winner $return
1 3,5,6,2 6 8.8
2 no bet
3 6,5,11,4 no
4 no bet
5 5,4,1,3 1 9.3
6 3,4,5,6 5 7.0
7 2,5,7,4 7 4.7

Country
1 11,12,7,4 7 5.7
2 6,5,1,7 5 3.3 (ouch)
3 3,5,6,7 5 9
4 2,5,10,6 10 8
5 1,2,5,11 1 4.7
6 1,5,6,3 3 3.4 (ouch again)
7 1,2,10,8 1 7.3

Sorry about the untidy columns, rush job !

Think this is right, its hard to look, write, listen, write again and serve customers.

cheers