Courtesy The West Australian website:

Lonhro will not be there but champion Northerly may face up to eight opponents in Saturday's Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill, including Australian Cup placegetters Natural Blitz and Don Eduardo.

Trainer Doug Harrison will decide later this week whether to start three-year-old Natural Blitz in the Group 1 Ranvet or the Sky High Stakes (1900m) on the same program for his first Sydney appearance.

There were fears the presence of Northerly would scare trainers off but he will not have it all his own way if all the entrants start.

Republic Lass, who finished third to Northerly in the Caulfield Cup, will be there along with dual Group 1 winner Carnegie Express and Chipping Norton Stakes placegetter Dress Circle.

The John Hawkes-trained Freemason, fifth in the Caulfield Cup, is another definite starter. "Who knows, he could fluke second," Hawkes said.

Rounding off the nominations are Manner Hill and grand stager Ears' Ronny.



Champion galloper Northerly, to make his Sydney race debut in next Saturday's $400,000 Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill, yesterday passed a vital direction change test with flying colours.

The powerful six-year-old Serheed gelding, galloping clockwise for the first time under racing conditions, ran a fast-finishing second at the Warwick Farm barrier trials.

Race rider Patrick Payne said the $8.8 million stake earner comfortably handled his switch from Perth and Melbourne's anti-clockwise racing to the clockwise galloping in Sydney.

"I'm now much more confident that he will also be superior in Sydney races," Payne said after the trial. "He jumped well, settled behind leaders and was in fourth position, about eight lengths from frontrunners nearing the home turn.

"Northerly cornered very well although I could feel he was still learning how to handle his new direction. He ran on strongly near the rails to finish within a half-neck of the winner, without being extended. With the benefit of that experience, his clockwise galloping action should be spot on for the Ranvet Stakes."

Trainer Fred Kersley said he was delighted with Northerly's adaption to the clockwise direction.

"I'm very happy with how he went," Kersley said. "More importantly, Patrick Payne was most satisfied by the way he galloped in this direction. Everything is on target."

Northerly, a brilliant winner in the $1.25 million Australian Cup (2000m) at Flemington on March 10, was flown to Sydney last Monday night and he is stabled at Warwick Farm.

His main NSW target is the $2 million BMW (2400m) at Rosehill on April 12. After the BMW, Kersley will decide whether to set Northerly for a showdown with star performers Lonhro and Defier in the $750,000 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Randwick on May 3.

Current NSWTAB win odds for the RANVET STAKES (2000m) on Saturday:

107 Northerly $1.60 $0.00
100 Carnegie Express $7.50 $0.00
106 Natural Blitz $7.50 $0.00
108 Republic Lass $7.50 $0.00
101 Don Eduardo $12.00 $0.00
102 Dress Circle $16.00 $0.00
105 Manner Hill $17.00 $0.00
104 Freemason $51.00 $0.00
103 Ears' Ronny $151.00 $0.00

At this stage (pending final field line-up) I believe Northerly is not a good thing and poor value (at odds on) and have already backed a couple of others that I believe are realistic chances and good value at the moment. Will include Northerly in the exotics, as he is still obviously the one to beat.

(1) Northerly, (4) Dress Circle, (5) Manner Hill & (3) Carnegie Express

Paddy,if you followed your own advice you cleaned up. Have a smiling Sunday.

Yes red, I did do well & made a nice profit. I had an inkling that Northerly would be vulnerable first time the "opposite" way of going under race conditions.

You could see he lacked his usual confidence in the straight and was not comfortable, turning his head towards Republic Lass and having a good stare at such a critical stage of the race did not help.

Hopefully we will see the real Northerly next time around & we might even get better odds :wink:

Ah! paddy you are the best, if only I had your insight, must be great! Could you give me just "ONE" piece of advice that would either improve my strike rate, or at least put me OFF some losers??

Just one......never bet odds on.


:smile:

Let me add to that, never bet odds on on horses, one on one sports are a different matter.

Courtesy The West Australian website:

Champion racehorse Northerly needs more "match practice" if he is to win the $2 million BMW (2400m) at Rosehill on April 12.

That is the opinion of top trainer Fred Kersley following the defeat of Northerly in last Saturday's Ranvet Stakes, when he ran a short half head second to Republic Lass.

Kersley is following a plan that has proved a great success in the past with Northerly, who performs at his best when racing in consecutive weeks.

Kersley has nominated Northerly for Saturday's Manion Cup (2400m) at Rosehill and he will then race a week later in the BMW.

"He needs the match practice racing the right hand way of racing in Sydney and he also needs the racing to bring him to his top," he said.

"He pulled up well from the run, but he indicated he really needed the run."

Northerly is likely to carry top weight (61kg) in the Manion Cup.

"He prefers his racing when coming off a short break and I would feel more comfortable if he was going into the BMW with another run under his belt," Kersley said.

"The only other option I had was to run him against Lonhro and Defier in a 1500m race at Rosehill on Saturday, and that would not have been the best option."

Kersley was also aware that Northerly was a "little lost" on the home turn on Saturday, when having his first run in the Sydney direction of racing.

"He'll get a lot out of the run experience-wise, but it was obvious that it was new to him under the race conditions," he said.

"There were lots of things not ideal for him on Saturday. He was flown to Sydney, in new stabling, and the environment was all different for him.

"He was brave in defeat and certainly not at the top of his game.

"One thing that was overlooked on Saturday was how good the mare Republic Lass was in winning. She's a very good mare, but it will be different next time."

Northerly was one of 12 nominations yesterday for the Manion Cup, but the Sydney Turf Club has extended nominations until today.

Paddy,

You are an experienced punter, so don't you think that Fred may give his charge a run in an unsuitable race to "top" him up for future events?
He's done it before, so I suggest that we be wary about the champ's program as it can be a "wealth hazard" unless you invest in the ratio of 1w 5pl.

Cheers.

I'm still waiting for "insight" rather than "hindsight" (tongue firmly in cheek)

ROYALE CORPORATE CUP 2400M - Rosehill 5th April

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley P Payne 1 61
2 STOWAY Gai Waterhouse D Beasley 11 54
3 BEDOUIN John O'Shea H Bowman 6 53.5
4 BEAU Myffy Rae D Oliver 2 53
5 CURATA STORM John Hawkes R M Quinn 3 53
6 GRAMPIANS John Hawkes D Beadman 13 53
7 GRAND CITY Gai Waterhouse J Cassidy 12 53
8 ICY PRIDE Shaun Dwyer C Carmody 9 53
9 LAGUNA LAKE (USA) Gai Waterhouse C Munce 5 53
10 MAJESTICALLY (NZ) Jack Denham Steven King 10 53
11 MR. TRICKSTER Mick Price D Nikolic 7 53
12 RISING HEIGHTS (NZ) Howie Matthews G Childs 4 53
13 TERRIFIC TAURUS Diane Poidevin-Laine J Innes 8 53


I rated Northerly's last run around 1.25len below his best for the distance, so expect further improvement.

I see his main dangers on Saturday as 2 - STOWAY, 5 - CURATA STORM, 6 - GRAMPIANS, 10 MAJESTICALLY.

(1) Northerly - if the champ replicates his Caulfield Cup run, he will win easily.

(2) Stoway & (6) Grampians the main dangers.

(12) Rising Heights my longshot. From NZ winning 6 from 20 starts. Untried this distance but could surprise.

trying to pick one to beat the champ but finding it very hard even considering his weight.

#1 Notherly
#9 Laguna Lake
#2 Stoway
Roughy-#12Rising Heights

I'll just settle for "INSIGHT" before the race rather than "HINDSIGHT" later!!!!!!
(Tongue STILL firmly in cheek!)

It seems to me that Paddy made his point before the race partypooper, if that is what you are on about :wink:


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-04-04 23:54 ]

I do not think that Northerly can win.Every time he has to carry more than 58kgs he is found wanting.Weight will stop a train.Never bet odds on,never run up steps.Mr.Trickster likely to lead again,if not him,something else will set a fast tempo and make him carry his weight.Patrick Payne will have it in his head(if Mr.Trickster leads)that he has to be closer this time.That will bring him undone.Also Fred Kersley has already"given the hint"that he was forced to run him this week because he needs more experience at the Sydney way of racing before next weeks BMW,which is obviously is the main target for him.So the excuse was there for him last week,and it is already in place for him on Saturday,should he lose.
I am not saying that he can't win,I'm just saying that I don't think he will,so it opens up some value in the race.
I personally am going to dutch book these runners to beat him.

Stoway
Bedouin
Beau
Grand City
Laguna Lake
Majestically
Mr.Trickster

I don't normally dutch book that many horses,but with him stifling the market,it will be possible,and a good result is on the cards,providing one champion called doesn't spoil my party!!!

Partypooper,where did you dig that name up man??I just wanted you to read my previous post,that is my insight,and I hope that I don't end up with egg all over my face in hindsight!!!
Cheers,angel

Good old Northerly, beaten at odds on again.


:grin:

Angel, you are right again, I picked the name purely as a reflection of my own failure, i.e. EVERY idea that I've scrutinised, (mine or others) always falls in aheap. YET I'm still searching, maybe I should have called myself the "ETERNAL OPTIMIST" but alas "one Swallow has never made a SPRING")

and as I said, I'm STILL waiting for "INSIGHT"??????

Northerly goes under again.Thank you Patrick Payne.Great ride once again.As I stated in a prior post,I bet against him.I managed to narrow my dutch book down to 4 runners,and luckily Grand City was one of those 4!Was able to show a profit of $1000 on the race for an outlay of only $200.Thank you again Paddy Payne.If Fred Kersley does not give him the flick after that ride,there is definitely a conspiracy in place.I will say here and now he cannot win the BMW if P.Payne rides him.Damien Oliver or Greg Childs on board,he wins his last 2 starts guaranteed.And will win the BMW with one of those two on board,and at backable odds!!

Partypooper,you should change your name to Jethro Tull,you are as thick as a brick man!!Insight?????Did you not read my prior post???Before the race?Did I not give you the "insight"that Northerly would not win,and advise you which horses to back to beat him?Is that not insight?Do you want all the Northerly fans on this forum to say something to you?Northerly is a champion,but even champions get beaten sometimes.I did try to give you some "insight"as to how and why he could be beaten,but obviously it went way above your head.I promise I won't try again.To all the Northerly fans,pray that Fred sees the light and changes jockeys.Paddy is not agressive enough for a bulldog like Northerly.It's as simple as that.

Thankyou angel, but all I saw was NORTHERLY< NOERTHERLY, NORTHERLY, not the other one what was it Grand something?????

Let me see a scanned copy of your betting ticket????

oh! ******** must have got the wrong race!!!!

Angel, although we are by now arched enemies, (by all accounts) let it be known that I "ALWAYS" give credit where it's due,...... so congradts. on Airlie Bird, well done!! (from the heart)

Thank you for your kind words,obviously did not read my post,when I gave you "INSIGHT"and advised you and anyone else who cared to take notice as to which horses I thought could win.Grand City paid $20+ up here,but you didn't take heed.Don't blame me if you mixed up your races,although I fail to see how.And NO,you cannot and never will scan my betting tickets.Did you take my tip for Airlie Bird?No,mixed up the races.

Partypooper aka Jethro Tull,let it be known"by all accounts"that I am not your enemy(or your enema!)I don't seek any kudos for tipping Airlie Bird.I just hope you and lots of people on the forum had something on it!Please read my posts before you decide to get up me in the future,and you and I will get along just fine.I have no intentions of getting involved in a slanging match with you.I have to much respect for Neil and Guy to ever do that.Cheers,angel416

Will you give it up Angel416 , why is it when there are insults or slanging matches you are at the centre of them , how many people are there left on the forum that you haven't had a go at 4,5....

If you don't ask for any kudos on some good tips than why do you pipe up and congratulate yourself on the forum and tell everyone how good you did and that everyone should have listened to you????

I don't see you congratulate yourself when you pick losers, most people who post tips have the decency to give the results of there tips whether they were good or bad, when they have a good day they don't all of a sudden pipe up and say i hope everyone listened to me and when they have a bad day just say nothing.

BettyBoop tipped Zabarra in the Newcastle Newmarket last week at 30/1 and she didn't ask for any credit or congratulations on her tip, i'm just glad you didn't tip it or we would still be hearing about it.

G'day angel,

I could not agree more! It was a "payneful" ride from P. Payne but we should have seen it coming! It was a primer for next week and luckily i did not do too much on it. When are the stewards going to do something about these shenanigans?
As for Fred, "red hot" comes naturally to him having made his name in the 'red hots" so he is immune to being booed for having odds on favs beaten. All in all it gives racing a bad feel and can cause harm to the industry.

Cheers.

Testarossa,thank you,point taken.I have just re-read some of my previous posts,and you are absolutely right.I didn't realise I had offended so many people.
Au Revoir

ANGEL, dont let it go to your head, my note was out of common courtesy, deserved for clearly tipping Airly Bird clearly BEFORE the race. No I didn't back it, I would be evenmore broke than I am if I backed all the tips here.
My tongue in cheek attitude, does get up some people, but I have never resorted to hissing obsenities!! Read back over some of your previous posts (disagreements) and see who is the agressive one!