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-   -   Best Bet Lay Bonanza (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23116)

UselessBettor 23rd December 2011 08:08 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
But where can you find the tips the night before instead of looking at the paper in the morning before work (for us plebs) when we don't have time to look at the tips and place the bets? Does anyone know of this place?

As Bhagwan said. Unfortunately it is not possible.

I am trying to code it and its not straight forward either so at the moment I m just checking them manually.

thorns 23rd December 2011 10:02 AM

Is there anywhere online that has a good tipsters poll with a variety of tippers?

Chrome Prince 23rd December 2011 11:22 AM

Cranbourne R3 Donovans
Cranbourne R4 Miss Muja
Cranbourne R6 Rock Of Ages
Ipswich R4 All That
Ipswich R6 Ticket To Dream
Sunshine Coast R5 Psychodelic
Wagga R1 Sipaan
Wagga R3 Sand Dune
Dubbo R5 Craig'n'ian
Dubbo R7 Hewentwhoosh

Melton (Night) R4 Blucolla Tigerpie
Melton (Night) R6 Arber
Menangle R7 The Big Mach

I've left out all duplicate best bets.

UselessBettor 23rd December 2011 11:44 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
Is there anywhere online that has a good tipsters poll with a variety of tippers?

no idea

Chrome Prince 23rd December 2011 11:48 AM

I don't know of any central resource for tipsters or even how to get them the day before.

I'm using the herald sun online formguide and the tattsbet.
If one wanted to go all out, I would get together all the tab sites and all online rags, but I think there's more than enough action just doing it this way, and Saturdays should be twice as busy.

In an interesting contrast, the racing post in the UK has a nap table, I believe the nap table is best bets from various tipsters, because they also have a seperate poll table.
There are about 20 showing a profit for the month at bookie SP.

UselessBettor 23rd December 2011 01:48 PM

Tipsters are hitting back today with my records currently showing 22 tips for 12 winners and a lay loss of 14.93

Chrome Prince 23rd December 2011 02:02 PM

Two out of three best bets have landed so far, could it be that this is the day.

Nah, Hutchy surely won't let me down ;)

UselessBettor 23rd December 2011 03:06 PM

My results are showing 36 tips for 19 winners showing a loss of 24.37 units for the day.

Mind you over 4 days it is only down 5.5 units overall from 160 selections.

Its an interesting starting point. I'll keep watching it to see how it goes after 300 or even 500 selections.

Chrome,

I count 3 from 4 of them winning now.

norisk 23rd December 2011 04:12 PM

Yeh, a lot of favoured runners getting up today, had to be an even out day sooner or later

Chrome Prince 23rd December 2011 10:16 PM

Cranbourne R3 Donovans Won $7.48
Cranbourne R4 Miss Muja Lost
Cranbourne R6 Rock Of Ages Won $2.99
Ipswich R4 All That Won $2.80
Ipswich R6 Ticket To Dream Won $2.01
Sunshine Coast R5 Psychodelic Won $1.73
Wagga R1 Sipaan Lost
Wagga R3 Sand Dune Won $1.74
Dubbo R5 Craig'n'ian Lost
Dubbo R7 Hewentwhoosh Lost

Melton (Night) R4 Blucolla Tigerpie Won $5.27
Melton (Night) R6 Arber Lost
Menangle R7 The Big Mach Lost

Outlay 13
Return Backing 24.02
Profit 11.02

Chrome Prince 23rd December 2011 10:22 PM

Running Tally

42 Selections
Return 33.90
Loss 8.10
LOT 19.28%

Was a horror day for the lays, and I'd imagine that this was probably one of the best days backing ever.
Will be interesting to see how it fares after the weekend.
Still ahead nearly 20%.
In reality, still way ahead as have been laying to liability and a few very short horses lost this week.

UselessBettor 24th December 2011 06:43 AM

"All tipsters lay the fav" tally for yesterday was 56 selections for 29 winners (and at good odds $4+) with a lay loss of 36.78

Overall it is now showing a loss. A lot of the damage was done by one tipster who tipped multiple meetings. He had 18 tips for 10 winners and contributed 18.15 of the loss. Prior to today he had only gone 5 winners from 22 selections and had been profitable laying.

The Ocho 24th December 2011 09:27 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
Just set a cut off price of $4.90 & you will be laughing.
Betting level stakes is the more profitable in this price range.

What would have happened yesterday if Bhagwan's advice of only laying under $4.90 was followed?

For one the $7.48 winner would not have been picked.

I looked at the Herald Sun yesterday and noted that all 3 tipsters picked Donovan to win but only one was the best bet. What if you delete the ones where all tipsters pick the same horse (or maybe where the majority pick the same horse)? What would happen then?

Travolta 24th December 2011 09:33 AM

laying to liability looks to be a good option here as it appears that the price of these hot tips that fall over is less relevant to the strike rate than normal? By that I mean it appears that as many short and odds on pops fall over as the $3-4 priced ones..

if that is true (is it??) then a % of bank fixed liability approach would work well....wouldn't it?

UselessBettor 24th December 2011 09:43 AM

I have to admit I have not been recording each selection and whether it was a multiple pick or anything. So I really should go back and see what I can come up with.

This looks half promising as at least a starting point for a method of laying.

Lucky I am sick and have time to do this ..

BTW MErry Christmas everybody.

UselessBettor 24th December 2011 11:34 AM

Just did a quick test on the selections and I havbe only loaded a few days so far but laying to liability of $1 showed a loss of $1.68 but just putting $1 on it with variable liabiliuty showed a profit of $11.94

Very early as its only on 86 selections but that is a bit of a huge difference already. I haven't loaded yesterday results yet though.

Chrome Prince 24th December 2011 11:39 AM

I'll not be posting selections, as I really don't have the time at the moment.
I will post the summary tonight.

Rules are: Best Bets from Herald Sun and Tattsbett where it is best bet by only one tipster.

We are still showing a 20% POT laying at Betfair prices.

Chrome Prince 24th December 2011 08:03 PM

Sand R4 H3 Won @ $3.10
Sand R4 H4 Lost
Sand R5 H8 Won @ $3.05
Sand R8 H5 Lost
Gold R3 H2 Lost
Morp R4 H1 Won @ 3.14
Morp R6 H9 Lost
Morp R7 H2 Lost
Asc R4 H4 Lost
Too R2 H9 Won @ $1.99
Too R3 H4 Lost
Doo R3 H3 Lost
Doo R4 H1 Won @ $2.18
Doo R5 H8 Lost

Running Tally

56 Selections
Return 47.36
Loss 8.64
LOT 15.43%


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