Not a bad day. There were 15 smiles from the 15 selections for a profit of $5.29.

Bank still ticking over like clockwork?

LG

Yes, L.G.

I didn't give much chance to most of yesterday's selections and consequently had some large bets. I ended up with a profit of $300.

My luck can easily change for the worse but at least its heartening that the selections so far have also a poor Place record which could indicate the selection process is not too bad.

Morning mg - good news that the bank is still happy!

I am convinced you have mastered the art(or you are closing in) on finding 1 horse with the worst chancing of winning, using a simple lens to focus on the 'wrong runner' in the 'right race'

If I may ask, have you found that ~

a. a horse placed in its previous run has an increased chance of being placed next up?
b. roughies seem to get up more often on metro tracks?
c. long shots at the bottom of pre post betting which subsequently firm into single figures at jump do not necessarily have a better chance of getting up than any of your other selections?

My Qs come from a different direction ie how to pick the right horse in the wrong = overlooked race, but feel that we both have something to learn here, albeit from opposite ends of the same or similar lens!

LG

Hi, L.G.

I don't really have answers for your three questions, all I can give is my opinion/experience.

a) I'm currently working on a Place system. One of the rules is that the selection must be placed at it's last start. There's been 11 days of real betting for 36 placegetters from 47 selections for a 28% POT (my TAB account is smiling). I've also applied the system rules to those selections that were unplaced at their last start, and the results are "in the red".

b) Unknown

c) Also unknown. However out of curiousity I often look around midday at the TAB prices of most of my lay selections, and because of their prices (one or two have even been faves) makes me feel somewhat uneasy because I think my ratings are out of whack. However with more money in the pool they ease to become an outsider. I can't remember if the reverse in the price scenario has happened to any of them.

Today's selections are:

Rosehill
2/11
3/8
6/9
7/16
8/17

Caulfield
2/12
3/10
5/19
6/16

Dombeen
1/6
2/10
5/8
7/11
8/3

Oakbank
1/6
2/5
4/9
6/13
7/13

Gold Coast
1/7
5/7
8/11

Taree
4/11
7/12

Kembla
2/6
4/9
6/13

Tatura
3/2
5/8
6/10
7/7

Wagga
3/2
4/7
5/7

Toowoomba
1/9
4/9
6/6

Ascot
4/8
5/5
7/2
8/12

41 selections.

Not a bad day. There were 40 smiles from the 40 selections for a profit of $22.49.

Today's selections are:

Sun Coast
4/12
5/2
7/6
8/14
9/19

Nowra
1/2
2/4

Mornington
4/1
5/8
7/11
8/14

Penola
4/7
5/2
6/4
8/9

Mudgee
2/7

Stawell
1/2
5/4
6/8
7/13

Albany
5/11
8/9

A terrible day today. There were 2 accidents from the 22 selections for a loss of $36.58 which fortunately still leaves the method with a healthy profit.

I made a mistake. If a selection is resuming from a spell then it becomes a no-race. One of the selections (Stawell 5/4) was resuming from a spell and I unknowingly failed to notice it - it turned out to be an accident. Because I listed it here as a selection I have to record it as one, otherwise the loss would have not been great and would have only just about wiped out yesterday's profit - bummer!

I hear you Mg.

The fact that you (a) fess up in here to the 'mistake' and (b) restate the correct rule is proof of your focus and credibility. IMO... you have the right lens here and none of us are machines, at least not all of the time?

Respect.

LG

Thanks, L.G.

It's not too difficult to make a mistake, I've done so a few times with the method (and other things) by not identifying selections, and so far they've all been smiles, but we're all humans and we all make mistakes. And try as hard as we might, we will continue to to do so...can be a worry.

In spite of today's two accidents I still had a good day with laying the other selections.

Ps I also noticed that one of your selected races yesterday(Caulfield?) produced mostly long shots into the frame and i wondered why this race could be so different to others.

Took me a little time but then I noticed the difference(compared to the other races you were laying) ... it was riddled with 4+ FU's if my memory serves me correct?

Wondered then if perhaps this is the kind of race that will throw up far too many surprises for one's peace of mind when laying at such long odds?

LG

PSS Is your place system still paying dividends?

I have looked at races where there are quite a few resumers but could find nothing consistent with laying and also betting. I think someone on this forum also investigated it but from what I remember it fizzled out.

My Place system has lost over the past two days, but not too much of a loss. It is showing a current POT of 18% for a 73% strike rate. Quite a few losers have run fourth so I'm hopeful. It's still early days.

Well done Michael.

Can I ask what you do if there is 2+ qualifiers

Hi, Bhagwan.

There can only be one qualifier because of the rules. It's still early days with only 67 selections. I had thought of revealing the rules but decided to wait a little longer which is fortunate because it has gone into a bit of a slump. Hopefully its only a temporary one.

Today's selections are (I've double-checked none are resuming),

Eagle Farm
4/7
5/16
6/2
8/16

Randwick
4/10
5/2
6/12

Caulfield
1/1
4/10

Oakbank
1/2
2/9
3/5
5/10
6/9
7/10

Muswellbrook
2/14
3/14

Devenport
4/8
6/5
7/10

Pinjarra
5/5
6/9


Seeing that there is some interest in the Place method I'll list today's selections and hope they go better than they did over the last few days:

Devenport
2/14

Eagle Farm
6/8

Oakbank
6/7

Pinjarra
1/11
3/9

Another terrible day. There were 2 accidents from the 21 selections.

Unfortunately I made another error, as I did yesterday. I don't lay Hurdles because there aren't enough of these races to gauge an accurate-enough market, and I failed to notice Oakbank 6/9 was one.

Because of the two errors over the past two days the method is now break-even. The test period had no accidents, and including that period the method is still in profit, so I've just got to be very careful from now.

Today's selections are:

Townsville
4/9
5/6
6/13

Grafton
5/11
7/9
8/14

Wodonga
6/7
7/6

Cessnock
1/2
3/7
7/4

There was another accident yesterday, however the method is still in front.

I'm going to change the selection process because some of them are fancied in the market, and consequently these smiles are quite profitable.

I've been looking at the top selection in the neurals (default/factory) settings, and use one filter.

Over the past three days there have been 28 smiles from 29 selections. About half of them started at single odds, so the results have been quite acceptable.

I'll give it a go today and hope the success continues.

Ascot
2/1 (currently odds-on with Betfair)
6/1

Balaklava
2/3

Bendigo
1/12
6/13
8/7

Dombeen
3/8
4/6
6/6

Goulburn
2/12
3/2
8/3

Not a bad day. In spite of two accidents, the result from the remaining 10 smiles was an overall profit of $8.00.

Hi Mg, good to see you are back on track with this.

Are you still placing with success, too?

I have had some success on this front as well of late, but find that rather than targeting a 'place chance' (if there is such a thing), it is more profitable to target the best value pick of the top chances - seems to bring home a reasonable place divi.


LG

Hi Michaelg,
I have found with any high priced lay plan , that stronger results are to be had if one only targets races with 11+ runners.

Any less & anything can fluke a win.

Also try not to lay any runner that has not run before.
They have a habit of surprising.

Hi, L.G.

I no longer bet the Place method because my interest is dead at the moment, only focusing on Laying. But that may change.

Bhagwan, yes, the results are not too bad with the larger fields but the smiles produce only a very small profit.

However, since Sun 1/4 I've been closely looking at 11 and under fields because I'm strongly under the impression the value is better when laying outsiders in these smaller fields.

I'm using a method with only two filters. Since 1/4 there's been 122 smiles from 122 selections, and only one smile ran third. My bets have become quite large and am profiting between $50 and $100 per day. The only drawback is that I have to be at the computer.

Thats great if you have found a filter that seems to work.

That's a pretty good test so far.

Especially being <=11 runners

The average price will usually be more attractive, due to being a smaller field.

I usually like to see these stats in groups of 150 bets, so as to have a broader picture.

Another rule that I find that works well with this idea ...
Min price has to be >= 5.00
Because sometimes they can end up being 1st or 2nd Fav in live market, then go on to win.

So far, it appears to be producing some fine results.


Can you say at this stage Michaelg what the filters are?

Bhagwan, at this time I'd prefer not to reveal them. - sorry. However if they continue to perform and you are still interested I'll give you the rules privately.

It currently has a 100% success rate in the U.S. and U.K but because of the rules it makes it somewhat difficult to identify the selections, and I have to make an "educated " guess.

Out of interest, laying yesterday's twelve selections for a liability of $33 produced a profit of $8.00. And backing them for $1.00 on Unitab also produced a profit, of $10.40

Today's selections are:

Ballarat
5/8
6/1
8/15

Hawkesbury
5/4

Sun Coast
2/9
3/4
7/10

Kalgoorlie
1/1
3/3
4/13
7/3

Kalgoorlie 7/3 is scratched. The replacement selection is no.1.

Not a bad day. There were 10 smiles from 11 selections for a profit of $26.12.

Today's selections are:

Canterbury
5/12
7/8

Cranbourne
3/7
6/8

Geelong
8/5

Ipswich
5/5

Canberra
2/10

A losing day. There was an accident from the 7 selections for a loss of $11.24.

After three days there have been 26 smiles from 30 selections for a profit of $22.88.

Today's selections are:

Ascot
5/3

Flemington
6/7
8/9

Gold Coast
2/3
7/11
8/8

Hamilton
5/11
7/9

Morphetville
7/5
8/12

Newcastle
4/10

Toowoomba
4/4

Hi Michael, Using the Neurals
I wonder if you take into account the race distance/Race track combination?


As I mentioned I'm running a programme continuously putting in different combinations of factors and find that some distances on certain tracks are simply unprofitable.
I only record results where there were at least a 100 races qualifying.

It mystifies me why this is so? One would think that a rating is a rating is a rating? Should work regardless of distance or racetrack?

Strange.

lomaca, I think the neurals are based on statistics, however I've seen horses having their first start get more CF, CP, TIM and DIS points than other horses that have raced.

It is really puzzling...

However it seems that their top selections overall are not too bad. One of my lay selections today won paying $30 on the TAB. If I can remember correctly some time ago I layed the top selection in every race on a particular day, it was a disasterous day.

My lay Outsiders method is still going strong. However, I lost my records because of a computer glitch and had to restart from last Saturday. All I can recall is that since beginning the method on 1 April (easy to remember the date) there have been no accidents. I'm quite sure there have been more than 150 selections;

I've been looking at a second Lay method (neural based) since last Sunday and there have also been no accidents.

I'll list today's selections and see what happens:

Geraldton
1/7
3/8

Morphetville
1/1
2/1
3/5
4/1
5/9
7/11

Rocky
1/8
4/7
5/12
6/8

Werribee
1/3
2/1
3/6
4/9
5/8
6/6
7/10
8/11

Wyong
3/7
6/8
7/11

Is there no SP on B/F today????

Hi Merriguy,

It appears that there is.

Check your settings when you click on a particular race and make sure the box just above the race fields on the left-hand side marked 'Betfair starting price' is ticked.

The Schmile

Thanks Schmile...there now; but I'll swear it wasn't there a half hour ago!! Will have to get those cataracts done urgently.

Could've been a 'Ghost in the machine' :D

The Schmile