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-   -   My Attempt at it (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=24435)

UselessBettor 7th July 2012 05:53 PM

Well time to resume this and I did some betting today. I have taken out the wage for all 8 days since the last update.

I might have a bet or 2 in the last few at toowoomba but I will need to wait and see.

I held a position in 41 races today and made a profit in 35 of them.

Day 14 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $44,071.45
Profit for the day : $2032
Wage Deducation : $1600
Closing Bank: $44,503.45

I'll update this number later if I have anymore bets at Toowoomba.

UselessBettor 7th July 2012 07:58 PM

Updated now that toowoomba has finished.

Day 14 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $44,071.45
Profit for the day : $2056
Wage Deducation : $1600
Closing Bank: $44,527.45

I held a position in 43 races today and made a profit in 37 of them.

UselessBettor 8th July 2012 08:03 AM

I worked back through the last week to see what would have happened during that time. It looks like I would have lost abot 4000 during the week. So it was a good week to be sick.

UselessBettor 8th July 2012 05:32 PM

Day 15 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $44,527
Profit for the day : $2540
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $46,867

I held a position in 21 races today and made a profit in 19 of them. I am purely benefiting from the rebound from the poor result mid week when I didn't bet becasue I was sick.

UselessBettor 9th July 2012 04:14 PM

Day 16 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $46,867
Profit for the day : $936
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $47,603

I held a position in 17 races today and made a profit in 16 of them.

UselessBettor 10th July 2012 04:00 PM



Day 17 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $47,603
Profit for the day : $1976
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $49379

I held a position in 21 races today and made a profit in 21 of them.

The perfect day.

moeee 10th July 2012 04:18 PM

YOU ARE SIMPLY GOD!!!

UselessBettor 10th July 2012 04:42 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
YOU ARE SIMPLY GOD!!!

Moeee,

If you let me know your email address I'll quickly add you to my list and send you every selection before every race.

I think its more a lucky run still. And there was a period of loss of 4K when I was sick.

moeee 10th July 2012 04:46 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
And there was a period of loss of 4K when I was sick.

Yet another one of your Miracles!!

Lord Greystoke 10th July 2012 05:49 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Moeee,

If you let me know your email address I'll quickly add you to my list and send you every selection before every race.

I think its more a lucky run still. And there was a period of loss of 4K when I was sick.


Hi UB
If you are winning consistently AND paying yourself a wage,
Something tells me you are well beyond luck !

Any chance you could add me to your email list ?

Cheers LG

moeee 10th July 2012 06:09 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Hi UB

Any chance you could add me to your email list ?

Cheers LG

Give him my spot!!

UselessBettor 10th July 2012 06:17 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Hi UB
If you are winning consistently AND paying yourself a wage,
Something tells me you are well beyond luck !

Any chance you could add me to your email list ?

Cheers LG

Whats your email and I'll add you in to the list. You will get quite a few a day as I am in most races and it sends out an email per race.

Lord Greystoke 10th July 2012 06:26 PM

Ta mate.. open up the big gate!

LORDGREYSTOKE3RD

@

GMAIL.COM

Cheers LG

UselessBettor 10th July 2012 06:45 PM

I occassionally have a bet overnight but most of them should start tommorrow.

They will be a mixture of Bets and Lays. I haven't put my staking which varies for each selection but it should give you a lot to watch.

UselessBettor 10th July 2012 07:33 PM

You should already have an email for tonight.

Lord Greystoke 10th July 2012 08:05 PM

Thanks UB - confirm receipt.

Cheers LG

lomaca 10th July 2012 08:12 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Give him my spot!!
A man after my own heart.
Good on you moeee.
Cheers

Lord Greystoke 10th July 2012 08:27 PM

How so?

LG

UselessBettor 11th July 2012 04:24 PM

Of course the day I add people to the email its a shocker :)

Most damage was done in 1 race. I'll wait till the end of Belmont and post the results.

UselessBettor 11th July 2012 05:27 PM

I was bound to have an unhappy day eventually. Took a massive beating on one race based on the way I stake. Without that 1 race I would have been showing a very nice profit. High risk = high reward sometimes and othertimes it just ends in tears.

Day 18 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $49,379
Profit for the day : $(2448) LOSS
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $46,731

I held a position in 29 races today and made a profit in 24 of them. One of those losing positions contributing a loss of $3556.

Overall position still looks good espeically considering $3600 has been removed from the closing bank so far for wages.

Lord Greystoke 11th July 2012 08:01 PM

Your prognosis is sound UB

Keep up your fine work (and also the Betting races!)

Cheers LG

UselessBettor 12th July 2012 04:46 PM

There are a few to go at Pinjarra but its unlikely I'll have many/any bets in them. So Ill update this now and provide an update later if needed.

A good day for sure and glad after yesterdays loss. Almost covered the whole loss back today.

Day 19 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $46,371
Profit for the day : $2120
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $48,291

I held a position in 20 races today and made a profit in 18 of them. The two losing races were both small at $40 each.

Another good day tommorrow and I could hit $10,000 profit after wages are taken out. I am excited about that.

UselessBettor 13th July 2012 06:18 PM

Day 20 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $48,291
Profit for the day : $1360
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $49451

I held a position in 30 races today and made a profit in 29 of them.

Didn't quite make the $50,000 today but I was close. I hope I can hit it tommorrow.

UselessBettor 14th July 2012 06:33 PM

Day 21 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $49,451
Profit for the day : $(56) LOSS
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $49195

I held a position in 40 races today and made a profit in 34 of them.

Overall I was happy to be close to break even today as I was down early and spent most of the day recovering.

Lord Greystoke 14th July 2012 06:59 PM

Evening UB

Can I ask - if you are not laying/backing everything that comes thru that feed,
How to cherry pick amongst them?

Cheers LG

UselessBettor 14th July 2012 08:08 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Evening UB

Can I ask - if you are not laying/backing everything that comes thru that feed,
How to cherry pick amongst them?

Cheers LG
Lord Greystoke,

If the tip says lay then I am laying it, if it says bet then I am betting it. I have something on every single one of those selections. The emails are sent out once the bets are placed. The difference is how much I am laying / betting on each selection. I run quite a few systems and they determine how much liability I will have on each selection. Also the price can play a part in determining how I will lay it. I use a combination of laying to a liability and laying straight out.

For instance of the 3 lays who lost today, 2 were layed to a liability and the other was layed straight out. I think in part I am successful because I know when to stake a certain way. Rest assured I do not use any progressive staking at all. Its all flat stakes (but differing liabilties if that makes sense).

Lord Greystoke 14th July 2012 08:16 PM

Thanks for detail - the stream of selections in your emails are actually your professional punting experience then, coming thru in real-time.

It's a real eye opener and I thank you for including me .

How are you holding up on the Bet side?

Cheers LG

UselessBettor 14th July 2012 09:01 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Thanks for detail - the stream of selections in your emails are actually your professional punting experience then, coming thru in real-time.

It's a real eye opener and I thank you for including me .

How are you holding up on the Bet side?

Cheers LG

Yes its my real time betting that is getting emailed out.

The bets are just under break even this week (loss of 2.25 units) but overall are showing over a 320 units of profit over the time I have been betting them.

As far as lays I am up the equivalent of 10.8% ROI since starting them. I turn over a lot of selections with the lays and aim to make about 0.1% off the liability I am taking on each selection over time. For instance if I was to lay 100 selections across the day (I did more then 100 selections today) and I layed all of them to a liability of $1000 then I would expect to return 100*1000*0.001 = $100 profit off the $100,000 liability. Of course 100 selections is not enough to even out the randomness of results which can go against you but its a rough guide of what I try to aim for each day. Therefore hopefully over time increasing the turnover should increase my ROI.

By the way I don't lay all the selections to the same liability :)

I'll turn on units tommorrow so you can see the differences in staking that I use for a couple of days.

Lord Greystoke 14th July 2012 09:06 PM

Ta mate. It's been a fascinating 'ride' to date.


Cheers LG

UselessBettor 14th July 2012 09:09 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor

I'll turn on units tommorrow so you can see the differences in staking that I use for a couple of days.
I have added the staking size into it.
A stake of 0.10 means 0.1% of the bank.
A stake of 0.50 means 0.5% of the bank.
A stake of 2 means 2% of the bank.
A stake of 5 means 5%, etc.

For example if you have a bank size of $40,000 and you had a 0.10 stake for a lay then you would lay the $40 on the selection. If the selection was $100 then this would be a liability of $40*$100 -$40 = $3960 if the selection goes against you. I hope that makes sense.

UselessBettor 15th July 2012 11:18 AM

Sorry had an issue with the emails and staking. I think I have fixed it up now.

UselessBettor 15th July 2012 03:03 PM

A Shocker today for sure with Sandown Race 5 going against me.

I have done some analysis and I make the majority of my profit in Races 1-4 of each meeting. I'll change up my rules based on this to only include races 1-4 from tommorrow for certain selections. I'll put up the results later.

UselessBettor 15th July 2012 05:17 PM




Day 22 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $49,195
Profit for the day : $(3916) LOSS
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $45079

I held a position in 23 races today and made a profit in 20 of them. Sandown Race 5 was very costly with multiple systems laying the longshot.

Interestingly had I only taken positions in the first 4 races of each meeting I would have shown a profit of $828

From tommorrow I am restricting the positions to races 1-4.

UselessBettor 16th July 2012 05:51 PM

It was a good day today, as I stopped after the 4th race at each meeting, but I can't update the days figures till betfair comes back online.

Hopefully that will be soon.

Lord Greystoke 16th July 2012 05:56 PM

That is good news UB - looks like you might stick to this strategy?

LG

UselessBettor 17th July 2012 05:56 AM

Day 22 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $45079
Profit for the day : $1168
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $46047

I held a position in 12 races today and made a profit in 11 of them.


LG I will be sticking to first 4 races only for now on for certain types of positions.

Lord Greystoke 17th July 2012 08:20 AM

Things on the up UB?

Am wondering whether you will also apply similar strategy to BET side ie 1st 4 races.

Cheers LG

UselessBettor 17th July 2012 08:30 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Things on the up UB?

Am wondering whether you will also apply similar strategy to BET side ie 1st 4 races.

Cheers LG

I'll be betting all races for the BET posiotions although the rules for most of the BET positions usually have most of them in the first 4 races anyway. Its rare to get many bets in the later races at all.

I'll also be running a few LAY positions outside of the first 4 races but these will be few and far between.

Any day there is a good profit I am happy.

I have also thought about the stop at a winner because based on this I would have not had a losing day in over 2 months but the winnings are then limited to what ever you win in that first race which can be low sometimes. Still its another angle to look at that may be used at some stage if I find it works out to be more profitable. At this stage though its a long way behind as a staking strategy.

UselessBettor 17th July 2012 05:34 PM

Day 23 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $46047
Profit for the day : $(108) LOSS
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $45739

I held a position in 10 races today and made a profit in 8 of them.

Didn't do too bad considering I made a loss on Bathurst Race 1 Number 14. Just showing a small loss. If I had stopped as soon as I showed a profit I again would have won the first race and been up $36. The problem with this is I would not cover the $200 a day unless I was using a higher stake of my bank.

Could I go till I hit $200 ... maybe but then I would still have days like today where I make a loss. I'll leave it at the first 4 races for a while and make sure its stats continue to go as predicted. A small loss every so often is easy to handle when you have $1K days along side them.

UselessBettor 18th July 2012 03:46 PM

Day 24 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $45739
Profit for the day : $1032
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $46571

I held a position in 16 races today and made a profit in 15 of them.

I may yet have a few more bets today but if I do I will update again.
On my way back to 50K. Considering I have pulled out $4800 for wages I would have easily been there had I not been paying myself.


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