Almost there MO.

I download ratings from a.a.p megaform which,
Identifies the main 4-5 chances in a race using weight ratings.

I then do my own form, statistics, videos, etc,
To re-rate them throw some out completely,
But never bring in horses outside of 5.0 kg of the top rated.

I then set my own prices, and bet accordingly on certain,
Races in certain states on whatever i have left over.

Cheers.

Do your filtered results differ substantially from their original ratings.
I,m very prone to use inracing ratings as a odd on to r+s.
Cheers

Moeee.

I could not let that one go through to the keeper. One thing you have to realise that when I make a post or a reply, it is not necessarily coming from a great deal of knowledge.

However, I could say it is general knowledge, but, because I do not have the necessary quote or report to say that I am correct, I will not.

Let just say I assumed that the day of the big battles between bookie and punter might be close to over. To me, bookies are just glorified accountants.

Maybe you can explain what you mean when you say they are the major players of the tote pools.

To me that means laying off the over bet, so bringing all horses into their expected margin range. Balancing the books was an old term used for this. To me, that does not tell me that they can shape the market, they might just be the middle man, holding on to what they want and getting rid of the balance onto the TAB.

In my opinion, they cannot play the margins because they give Best tote on most if not all races, at least the major players do.

Star

I only wager and observe the small greyhound Pools , and there are some remarkable and Huge Wagers that take place in the last seconds before the close of betting.
Monitoring the pools often gives the impression that SOMEONE is getting on after the jump.

If the Bookies aren't doing it , then who?

Ok. I think I can now see where you may be coming from. ( maybe )

I do not think you can bring greyhound pools into the equation of the bookies being the major players if you accept my view that they are only the middle men.

I understand greyhounds a little bit being involved with them on and off for a long time. I have owned a few , about six and my best was a Group 3 winner and top grade at Albion Park.

I have this feeling that over the last ten years the sport has gone back to its old ways. The punter is gone except for a few stalwarts and some guys who stand on a stand with a satchell around their necks who call themselves bookies.

It is well known that the money goes on in the last few minutes. The pools are so small that if the owner, trainer and connections want a bet they cannot get set with the majority of bookies, they have to go tote.

They cannot afford to give too much of a leg up to the public hence the money goes on as late as possible,

I have said also that in quite a few cases the price at the jump is not the same at the finish. But this is another story that deviates a little from the original point that bookies are major tote players.

Star

If your trying to find winners for every race that goes around, you do indeed, need to account for over 140 variables, but as Wesmip stated identfying a couple of variables, when combined produces a super variable but this will only let you win on a certain subset of races. This is akin to a broken down handicapping system

To help us find all the winners, groups like Benter turned their attention to geo-science and two theory's namely Inverse Theory and Forward Theory for the answers

I've found myself with so much data and not knowning what to do with it all.

Is there any good sources of reading material around the two theories?

Hi moeee
The 'who?' is a group of very successful punters who manipulate certain pools to profit. It's not the large wagers that go on at the jump that are critical, but more so the large wagers that go on the losers much earlier to inflate the prices of the dogs that will actually win. Very selective and ridiculously, lavishly & insanely profitable! :)

Rails, I do not think that you and 'Moeee" are on the same tram in your explanation to him.

The question he asked in my opinion is of a more general nature unless I have misread him. it is a fact in Greyhounds, no matter what track or even class of race that the "informed money" goes on late. A lot is put through the Corporates who off load on to the Tabs at the last minute to balance their books.

That is a whole lot different to what you are saying about the very successful punters who attempt to manipulate the pools to their advantage. The last time they were able to do that was the sting at Gold Coast's Parkland when the dog, Lucy's Light who was a certainty and was well into the red just before the boxes opened.

Because of the small tote holds approx $5 to $10 thousand, four of the main chances had $5 thousand placed on each of them just before they jumped. causing Lucy's Light to blow out to about $4. The bitch won comfortably. The trainer Elaine Williamson was not even in on the sting.

But a bookie in Adelaide coped the brunt losing over $600,000 because he bet ' Best Tote " This bookie who's nickname was Curly was a bit upset. The brains behind the sting was alleged to be the owner of a few high class men's Clubs where the girls were reported to entertain a few high profile Nrl current and ex players.

But, the loop holes were closed fairly quickly so now the best you can get is middle tote which is a lot harder to manipulate.

Maybe, you are aware how they are able to manipulate the pools, because I cannot.

Hi Star. The answer is Quinellas.
I hope I haven't stuck my nose in. I think moeee or Bhagwan once mentioned the dog prices change after the jump because it takes the tote up to a minute to calibrate, whereas most dog races are over in half that time. Cheers.

It was Bhagwan. Who else?

LG

Rails.

You certainly are not sticking your nose in, infact I am pleased you did. I was getting the impression that Moeee, Rails Run and myself may all be on different trams.

I agree because dog races are over so quick that last monies in take time to calculate and because afair quantity ofn the total pool is placed in the last minutes creates a jam.

Having said that I am having difficulty seeing how the pools can be maipulated by putting money on early or late. It all comes out in the wash anyway. Unless they are trying to fool the market and uneducated money, a sort of Johnathon Thurston or Joey " Show and Go" play blindsiding the public.

In greyhounds I do not think their is to much uneducated money that follow other punters leads, if their is , more the fool them.

I would be interested to know how early money can affect the final dividends.


Star

ps

I have edited that post because I thought it was LG but I see it was from Rails Run. Please read in that context.

Introductory Geophysical Inverse Theory as mentioned by woof43...
http://mesoscopic.mines.edu/~jscales/gp605/snapshot.pdf

CM Too busy now but that looks like the lightest bit of heavy reading that I will have done for a while.

Missed this one.

No not greatly D.D say about 2 full betting points,
In the old either way.

At the most say A.A.P. $3.0 me say $5.0-$6.0.
The other way me $8.0 A.A.P $4.0-$4.5.

This is A.A.P. F.F.5 and there prices me then.
Re rating them.

I never get say A.A.P. $3.0 me $21.0 or visa-versa.

If i did i would use another set of ratings the market then,
Becomes the final decision.

What i did find is this A.A.P $4.0 me $5.5 Don Scott $101.0,
And they are both Weight ratings i tend to think the bonuses,
And penalties for Don Scott is outdated

I used to ignore his prices and just look at the top 3-4-5,
And ignore what odds they were that's a long time ago now though.

They may have improved a lot since then.

Cheers.
Gary.

I tend to stick with the old ratings that I,m used to ala Don Scott/inracing/Warren Block - usually based around WT Ratings but I,m old Fashioned but my hats off to to those who think there,s a better way and I encourage that.But I,m a old man and I hesitate to change anything thats made me a substaniatle profit for over 40 years.
Horses for courses I guess.
Cheers
darky

Good Luck with that then D/D.


Cheers.
Garyf.