there's only one "o" in LOSE ..... Gawd, I hate that !!!!

"price movements which reflect what we know about past events," ~ Which Way tho ??

I agree totally with you Barny!

It annoys me as well. I wonder if a wheel or tooth was loose how would it be spelt?

They would be woobbly !!

The market can only confirm our intepretation of it in hindsight. You still have to select the horse based on history. The starting price for all favs are statistically correct. The shorter the odds the higher the strike rate. You go out and back every fav then you have a quick trip to the poorhouse. Without the facts I would still state that the majority of these starting favs shortened. Hence the market is bringing some points not in history to the table. At odds on the fav is close to 50% strike rate, so the market helps but it is still 50% wrong. How much of the market is based on NOW? how much is hype? How much is based on the past and how much is based on hysteria?

Each race is a separate event, even a rematch a week later would be a totally different event. The past would show what occured. The market would have to reflect everything else that occured up till now. If that reflection it too heavily based on the past results and not on what has happened since then it is of no additional value.

If horses A,B,C,D,E.F.G and H raced each other and horse A won. If they were meeting today for a rematch, then I would like to see the market reflect that Horse A pulled up sore, and horse E was checked as a result of a stupid jockey decission and that it was fitter and ready to go this week. Does this show in the market maybe but not clearly and not all the time.

The future must be the past transitioning though the present and the more present in the equation the closer the result. Beton

Interesting post Beton.
Can you enlarge on the above?

Cheers LG

What LG said.

ye gads!

I might have to start a new thread on poor Mr Paretto being left out in the cold. lol

This thread has morphed into something quite special which is the beauty of forums and a collection of minds contributing to a common cause. Mr Hill was right " The Power of the Master Mind. "

Some brilliant and thought provoking info in here and thanks to the contributors.

Star

LG
The future must be the past transitioning though the present and the more present in the equation the closer the result.
Lets keep it to horses.
The past data will show if a horse has the ability to win against the other horses in the field. This data could a week old, 2 weeks old or in the case of resumers up to 6 months old.
For this data to be relative it must also include all the events up till now. Now nominally being the last chance to bet. The present being the time from last recorded data until now. This additional data has to reflect all the events for all the horses in the field. Most of this data is not accessable to the average punter. This additional data has more bearing on the result than the historical data. Hence we must find the horse most likely to win from the historical data. We must then add the present data. The more present data we have added , the truer the result.

In most cases we do not have any present data so the basis of our selection is solely historical data. The only present data that we can tap into is the market. But what info is in the market? Is it real? Is it additional? Or was it just Joe Bloggs dropping his 10 large on the fav, purely because it was the fav, 2 minutes before the jump?

The bottom line is that the more real present time data that we can add to our historical selection the closer we will be in choosing the winner. Beton

Thanks for the clarity, Beton.
Mostly agree with you - especially your final point.

Further points to consider might be...

1. Are we all looking at the same historical data - readily available or otherwise?

2. There will be many different interpretations/applications of that data

3. Even with similar interpretation, most will not apply selection logic based on historical data in the same way or consistently over a period of time

4. There are also different markets(not just the one for 'mug money'), intepretations of market movements and diff time-snapshots to consider


Cheers LG

LG, care to comment, you didn't answer my question.

Lets look at an everyday example. Fred left school and he left with an academic record showing that he past his HSC. He went on to become an apprentice and the a qualified carpenter. Work dries up in the firm he has worked for since starting as an apprentice. So armed with his historical data HSC, Trade Certificate and reference) he shooffs off to a job interview. Against ten other applicants with exactly the same historical data. Who wins the job? Who is the most eager? who is the most desperate? Or who has more present data. Fred has for the last 5 years been studying for his Builder' Registration which sits next week, he is also a computor nerd and capable in excel and autocad and many estimating packages. His past historical data got him the inerview but his unherald present data got him the future job.

The future must be the past transitioning though the present and the more present in the equation the closer the result. Beton

You are obviously a tradey Beton.

I guess the most current pieces of info are held by the vet and the stable ..... blood counts and the wellness of the horse on the day. Not particularly relevant to anyone else really.

Exactly Barny.
They are probably the most important pieces of the puzzle too.

LG
With computors we are all looking at the same data.
Everybody has a different view of the data. But most learnt at school 1+1=2, so the result of the data is consistent. People read the same favorite as a result. To get 1+1=3 you have to stark raving stupid or very astute. And if you are very astute, you don't want to tell anyone out of fear of being recognized as the former.
Everybody is looking for a different result but 1+1 will always =2 (and money out the pocket) and to get 2+ you need more than the original data.
As for the markets and market movements, Unless you know the origin of the money - whether it is smart money or mug money or bookies hedging their book, it is hard to be of value other than more shorteners win than drifters. Beton

Would be all price movements Barny.
But especially those at open and just before jump.

LG

Down and dirty everyday. Nobody said that you would end up with a body to prove it.

Have been waiting for someone to mention this,
But haven't heard it on any "RECENT POSTS"

The most important person who will tell you how the,
Horse is doing on a daily basis is "the trackwork rider"

Having owned a horse myself with three other mates,
And was successfull in town Flemington-Valley our,
Trainer Robbie Laing a top bloke and trainer would,
In those days ride the horse himself or get his trackwork,
Riders to help out.

It was their judgement we listened to as to how the horse was going.
Obviously as did the trainer.

Who rides Black Cav in trackwork keeps her up to the mark,
Tells Moody how she feels etc gives her enough work so,
As not to go over the top and peak on the day.

How often do you here a trainer say i might have been a,
Bit light on her this week or another comment i will put,
A bit more work into her this week.

That's why trackmen at each metro track get out there,
At 5.00 am in the morning to watch and clock how horses work.

This is where it all starts just watch some of the sky channels,
Who interview the trainers straight after trackwork the 1st,
Thing you see is either them or their foreman in earnest discussion,
With the jockey.

We were often told by Robbie she pulled up a bit light or a bit (Shinny)
After working, or she will need another run as we have set her for,
Race x in 2 weeks so we want her to peak then.

This is not me thinking about this it's what i have experienced 1st hand.

I am just surprised nobody has mentioned in detail.

Cheers.

Same here Beton. Cheers.

Fascinating stuff garyf.

Can you imagine my next question?!

LG

Even cases like Moody in Stradbroke with Mid-Summer Music that even get surprised.

Then you have BC in UK which was supposed to be the fittest of career and raced lame from an injury.

Please No.

Cheers.

LMFAO !

No it is,
No red pill today on this one then.

LG

Some trackriders are complete duds.
The better ones have like a clock in their head,
That can tell exactly what work to put,
Into a horse for Saturday.

As i live opposite Flemington i used to get up and go for a run each,
Morning (Not Now To Old)i would often hang around to try and hear,
What was being said you can't do it nowadays.

Along the way i became friends with a particular person who,
Had several horses with a trainer whose surname was the same as the last person hanged in Victoria he is in Qld now, one time as we were walking out to the car park he had recieved,
A glowing report for one of his horses from the trackwork rider.

I had heard what he had said so asked him i guess you,
Will be backing your horse in the Gibson Carmichael on Saturday.

NAA no hope was the reply trackrider mr.x just talks the horses,
Chances up in case it wins so he gets a sling.

The stablemate worked by trackwork rider mr y yesterday,
Was a winning gallop, he is the one we listen to, be on it.

Needless to say he was right i can't remember the odds but,
I had a big collect his horse ran 4th after having every chance.

As soon as i saw him the following week 30% of what i won went,
To him if you don't do that the next time you won't get,
Told or will get told wrong that's how it works.

Cheers.

You don't get around on a bike these days do you??

LG

I seemed to have strayed from the original post.

Either contribute to the original post "GAZZA" or zip the lip.

The latter methinks.

Cheers.

SCOOTER EASIER TO DISMOUNT (L.O.L)
Last post from me unless relevant.

Cheers.

GaryF
exactly.
This is the info that not many can access. Its why some syndicates have their track spies out and about bright and early. It is also what separates the smart money from the mug money. Those that are in the know and those who think they are on a winner. Form is numbers, getting this present data is about the animal. Racing is animal, betting is numbers, winning at punting is about (1) getting the numbers right and if you want to win more (2) getting both the numbers and the animal right. Beton

Gary,

I think everything what you and others have said are all part of the 100%. Unless we know all or most of the key ingredients in my opinion it is impossible to break it all down to 20/80.

Thanks and keep on " unzipping the lip " this thread is really enjoyable and I for one am getting a lot out of it.

Star

Star. What you have missed is that the Privateer's method of selection, his Pareto Rules, were stat based. Pure numbers based on past performance. He worked out where 80% of the income came from the 20% of data. The adding of recent knowledge, or the present, is a totally different equation. If you are going to apply the Pareto principle to the total sum OLD + NEW then you have to apply it to each then add them together. Beton

Thanks Beton.

What I have missed is Privateers Paretto thread. Counting backwards I am now down to page 199 and have only seen references to it. But all going into memory bank.

But I have found some great reading on the way through, thanks for the heads up. It is appreciated.

Possibly Privateers 20% will not fit in with my plays because of personal preferences and personalities, Bank, time and perceived and actual outcomes.

Were all different, which makes forums like this great because they help to widen ones outlook .

Star

Hi Star
One of Privateer's rules is never ever bet on a rain affected track. Also he only ever bet Saturday Metro races.

I think people should go back and read his posts as there is a lot of very helpful information in them. From the stats he worked out a very good selection method that picked winners so long as you considered to win money from the race you didn't have to be first past the post.

I know this because back in 2008 he sent me his selections each Saturday morning for about 10 weeks and never had a losing day. You have to stick to the betting rules (never on rain effected tracks, never bet on the favourite and bet a 1 to 3 win place ratio)

And if you are still out there Privateer I hope you are still sticking it to them

O Wise One. Thanks I missed that one. "Never bet on the favorite" although at >$4 it would be hard to do.

Star. When you research do the following. Copy and paste to another page and paste into order i.e. put all the references to weight together and all references to price together etc. The original post has been deleted hence the rules are alluded to. They are all there but some posts are a little sneaky because of the response he got and the realization that he had given too much away. Beton

I've put Privateers info (got heaps of it) into my database and have come out with a loss !! However, one of his 20% was to keep an eye on trackwork, and he said some of his better winners were first up, so there's got to be some"judgement" in there somewhere. Surely trackwork cannot be stat based ??

Quote Privateer "But should mention that my extensive trackworkand trial logs wouldn't fall under the heading of "basichandicapping" and they are the key to this little method."

Quote Privateer "FWIW, I do not factor the pace of a race into any methodthat I apply to punting. I find that it is too unpredictable and steers themind away from the issues that ARE predictable and recurring."

Quote Privateer "Lastly, I do not consider all races at all metrovenues. I rarely bet in Adelaidefor example. I find better quality fields produce the best result for me. Thereare certain races that I never consider and certain track conditions that Iavoid at all costs. Hope this helps."

Thanks for the little pieces of information.

Basically all I was looking for when I started this thread was to simplify the imputs to the most critical and not add heaps of stuff that interferes with other qualifiers and you finish up " with a dogs breakfast " so to speak.

When Privateer's Paretto thread was mentioned it real opened up here for some lively imput.



Star

ps

I have been playing around with some info from Privateer and others who replied to his thread.

However, he says no wet tracks, I have taken that as heavy, so a lot of soft tracks tomorrow.

I have five paper selections for Saturday. No Adelaide or Perth. I think the second quickest way to kill a system is to place the selections on here in advance.

Then if that doesnt work put your money on and show the selections again. If a system can overcome those qualifiers you might be onto something.

Flemington R2 No 5

Eagle Farm R2 No 11

Eagle Farm R6 No 9

Rosehill R4 No 2

Rosehill R5 No 9

All $1 win --- $3 Place

Lettheforumcursebegin

..... and it will ..... lol