Didn't think you'd be able to back up your assertions mattio ..... Your system leaving out Melb and Syd is similar to targetting selected racecourses just because there was some success in the past, regardless of the fact it's illogical.

My systems, granted they have few bets, are based on logic. Yes, I do have several filters that can be applied to any logical system and guaranteed to improve the POT. There have been many systems posted on here claiming POT's of 50% to 100% which when tested for logic cannot possibly stand the test of time, and, when tested on an accurate database over a decent trial period show a loss, not the POT claimed. One prolific poster of systems must have a very friendly database that only shows up POT no matter what rubbish is entered.

My systems are logical and also shy away from what is traditionally sought after by 99% of punters. You can backfit anything mattio but without logic it wont be successful.

Hope this has been of some help to you mattio, and your new found buddy moeee.

Barny, you are obviously of the belief that all filters work on all tracks and in all states, this is simply not true. Sydney and Melbourne have so many tracks that all play differently whereas Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have only a couple of tracks making the racing much more consistent, even if the class of racing is not as strong.

The same goes for ratings and pre-post prices, some have much better success in certain states and even certain tracks so "blanketing" everything is not logical.

If you were smart you would use your database to find what works best at different tracks, states, meeting types (M,P,C) and any number of other variables. I have started betting a new group of systems that are based on strengths at certain tracks and so far my forward testing has mirrored by backtesting - today at Cranbourne was a great example with winners in races 1,2 5 (check the divs) from only 5 selections.

If you can't/won't agree with the statements I have made then you are oblivious to any kind of reasoning and I wish you all the best with your own systems. Mine do just fine and I actually bet on them as well.

By Leaving out the main Metro tracks can sometimes work under certain filters. Under no circumstance does it mean its filtered.

Why would you critised someone trying to help another member with a couple of new filters to their original system. It helps the POT out and gets some interest out of the other member.

Horse racing and punting is not all about one way is the only way.

Still thinking
 

I can see that it would properly work better with distance horses because they run to get fit and can be misjudged were as over the shorter distances could be good lays for a varity of reasons. I agree with the tab numbers as the handicapper can class better than I can and I have always used tab number to separate horses rather than price –this is more of an average thing so long as you use it with reason.( Sydney and Melbourne have so many tracks that all play differently whereas Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have only a couple of tracks making the racing much more consistent, even if the class of racing is not as strong.)The track part I am not sure and what you say makes sence. So for me that system comes down to one factor the best price markets are Syd and Melb looking at the bookies % and not that it wont work long term but for me the fact that it doesn’t work in these two states only adds to the percentage you have to beat long term. If it was the other way around great but you can only work with the figures you have and its best to know rather than continue on blindly with out any chance and so the facts are don’t bet in Syd or Melb or under 1600 meters and stay with the better class horses.

i just wonder
 

The other thing for Syd and Melb may be the class rises are greater ,simply meaning if you cant win one grade down your chances are greatly reduced be cause you really do meet a better horse. I have never seen a study on horse’s wins or placings going up or down in class let alone on diffrent tracks have always worked on the assumption that a horse in the same or down in class would be a better chance given all being equal over time but have no idea how this affects price.

Winning and raving
 

The other thing for Syd and Melb may be the class rises are greater simply meaning if you cant win one grade down your chances are greatly reduced be cause you really do meet a better horse. I have never seen a study on horse’s wins or placings going up or down in class have always worked on the assumption that a horse in the same or down in class would be a better chance given all being equal over time but have no idea how this affects price.

Just reading through prepost prices I once did a study going back 5 years using the Courier Mail Syd /Bris not so good but in Melb it broke even at starting price- still had a health run of outs- this was a long time ago and properly gives me a Melb bias I still wonder if we had bob back then how I would have gone. This brings back memories, I also remember the top rated in the sportsman when it was No 1 also broke even over the same period B/S/M These are both one rule could be a good start.

ianian,

Because Sydney and Melbourne have the best racing and the better class of horses, you can assume that the races are going to be harder to win with all these good horses competing for the bigger prizemoney so it is logical (?!) that there could be an edge to looking outside of these areas when we are talking about a mechanical system.

When it comes to the way I develop systems I look at filters that either eliminate horses or eliminate races, eliminating poor races is just as effective as eliminating poor horses and from a systems point of view, sometimes races form punters view as good betting races can actually be poor from a system point of view.

These are just my thoughts mate, I do quite well from the systems I develop but always test yourself as past results don't guarantee future profits. Good luck.

On the subject of pre-post there are some absolute gems to be had using the pre-post favourite as the starting filter.

Cheers,

Mat.

Well constructed Mattio. You are spot on the money here. Eliminating losing situations is vital to making a profit. Some will call it back-fitting, but when you have done the work you know you now have a clear view of the future. You are a closer knit to Logic than any imposter. Thanks for your contribution.

Thanks RR, your comments are appreciated.

Cheers,

Mat.

Diffrent but the same
 

I under stand about the race class thing as I have found group racing was really bad for 1st and 2nd P/P favs which is why they are properly good value for over’s as the percentage has to go somewhere owing to the fact every body wants a piece of the good horse and the bookies don’t have a problem laying them.

Even though I generally don’t bet in maid through to class 5 as a rule more so to rely on class helping the form and sometimes its hard to break old habits from doing form as systems are about finding the winner at the right price any where you can which is not quite the same as doing from because you need the form to work across the field to give you the best chance of success on overs.

I used to do form but it is very hard to watch your best bet of the day that you spent hours on research and videos to come up with either a)miss the start, b)get bumped or checked from a slow horse, c)get slaughtered by the jockey, d)not want to race that day e)get distracted by a nice looking filly (haven't we all?) or f)any other reason or all of the above.

I prefer to spend my hours researching my systems now and if a selection wins that's great and if it loses I don't stress because I know I will have another gem thrown up again in the near future or even in the next race. The most important thing is to do what works well for YOU, stick with it and refine it where you can.

Cheers,

Mat.

e, especially if your horse is a filly as well......not that there's anything wrong with that.

Its true
 

Its not so funny you should that as when betting in class racing for over’s I always eliminated filly and mare or both types of races and here we are again many years later so there must be something to it.

I only hope that the moderator puts things into perspective and sees where the real contribution to the forum is, which is the purpose of the forum and which gets and retains members in the forum. It is about sharing and constructive critique.

Beton, given that UBs system host is yet to submit to the baton pressure of my goon squad...

Can you do a wee test for me(no need for the test jar mate)?

Selection: Tab No 1
Filter: Fav at jump AND/OR Barrier no 1


Cheers LG

I had to look 3-4 times at who posted this as i thought it must be me,
As apart from the winners at Cranbourne this is exactly what i would,
Have answered basically word for word as this is exactly what i do(doing)

Cheers.
Gary Mattio.

Sorry LG can not at the present. B

OK mate

SOMETIMES-"senior texting code."
 

ROFLACGU: Rolling on the floor laughing and can't get up.

IMHO: Is my hearing aid on?

Back to where we were without the distractions of personal attacks. I very kindly put up a winning system that didn't have the usual 'form'. I also alluded in my posts to just considering TAB 1. So here are the rules as posted plus the inclusion of only TAB 1.

TAB 1
Last 5 runs 2 to 24
Runs since spell > 4
METRO
Last run exactly 7 days ago

It shows a POT of 27.02% and given the cyclical nature of racing it's not enough to be confident that it will continue to repeat. Agreed? A POT of 27.02% sounds good but you might all of a sudden have a couple of losing years.

So dudes, where else recently on this forum have you been given a system that shows a POT of 27.02% ???? With one more filter I get the POT at 81.29% which is good enough to ride out the cyclical nature of racing and show a profit year on year.

So just put your feet up Barns & let the mula roll in, jobs done by the sounds of it...

Pretty much .....

Send through the next time there is a selection.

Be interesting to see if the POT can be maintained.

How many selections are there in your sample?

Enough .....

As posted, it's actually not one of my systems, I was just playing around with a few ideas to prove a point that 99% of punters just need to see a 1 somewhere in the form, and all that leads to is a LOT over time. LSW 7 days has been around for yonks, LS 7 days no-wins, I cannot remember seeing, can you moeee ??? But there it is ..... 27.02% and I'm sure someone with a database will verify it.

It's not rocket science moeee ..... You just need to change your thinking from SR to POT

If you restrict to geldings and then more than 20 sts the POT increases to 34.4%, but that's just mucking around with it really ..... backfitting in spades and that's no good at all.

In other words you can't answer.
Just Pie in the Sky.

Enough is a good word as I depart
I'm with mattio.

In case you feel I am ignoring you in the future Barny , It is because you are on my ignore List.

The Gravy Train selection just posted.
Good luck.

found free tester on top of home page
 

Must open under $3 early markets this could be subbed for under $3 prepost for test.

Must have won last start

Must have T/D or C

tested on free screener from 2006 sat metro

B/S 9% LOSS ON TURN OVER

MELB 10% PROFIT ON T/O

so can assume the only profit to be had was in getting better than starting price all up

How many on your ignore list moeee?

Still shows a decent POT of 13.59% without the filter METRO, ie; it includes all events, even maidens !! Funny that. I recall many years ago sportznut posted a great TW system, or was it No. 1 system. The basis was 1 to 4 in it's last 4 runs, so taking out the wins, the results improve.

I just dreamt this one up.

I call it "The Lazy Mans Way To Riches"

TAB 1

Having 3rd Start in this preparation

Last 2 Starts improving but LS 1 - 4
i.e 64,32, 41 etc

Genius or what?

Start up your own thread darkydog2002 and don't hijack this one.

Aw.I thought this one was to do with thinking outside the square.
Unappreciative lot.

A circle has an infinite number of sides - True

"If you want to buy marijuana please press the hash key" .....

Ah Good.
So I,m Ok to add my "quality" thoughts then,
Cheers

Darky check out horses that are TAB no 1 and 1st at the racetrack on the morning.

Trainers believe they get more used the atmosphere and allows the horse to get in some early stretches.

Absolutely darkydog2002 .....

I can't stop singing "The Green Green Grass of Home" ..... "Sounds like you've got Tom Jones syndrome!" ..... "Oh dear, ..... is it common?" ..... "It's not unusual"

Hmm.
There ya go Barn.
Only needs 1 person with a quality thought and others will follow.

This may turn out the "Thread of The Year"

Cheers.

Beats anything I've ever posted, hands down. I bask in the sunshine of your intellectual briliance Vortech.