OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)
-   Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)
-   -   top SP and race favourite (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25121)

Barny 27th September 2012 05:25 PM

As a comparison .....

$50 win or better
METRO
72,656 selections
511 winners
LOT 49.81%

Barny 27th September 2012 05:31 PM

1,000m to 1,200m show a profit. Any longer than that shows a loss.

Vortech 27th September 2012 06:05 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by mattio
Vortech,

With an idea such as this there are a couple of ways you could tackle it, one could be to use a loss recovery (depending on the run of outs) or trending past results to help determine what days to bet and what days to watch.

I'll do an analysis of results and see if I can help you find an edge.

Cheers,

Mat.

Thanks Mat, Some productive feedback.

Vortech 27th September 2012 06:10 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
If you get 10 cents or more on a $1.40 pop, then it wont be a bet will it, 'coz it will be over $1.50. A further inconsistency in your argument is that if you apply any filters Vortech your number of selections will diminish, which is against your philosphy.

You simply cannot make this a winner Vortech. There too much going against you here.

With Bet Selector the prices are using NSW.
So a favourite might be $1.40 and classed a bet.
However you might get $1.60 on the best of three totes.
This would still be classified a bet.

I just want to point out - I'm not betting using this system. It was trying to get some people an idea that their is value in the shorties.

Why do you jump into every thread and argue against a theory that is different to your opinion??

Barny 27th September 2012 06:15 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
Thanks Mat, Some productive feedback.

So was mine regarding the distances Vortech.

It's inevitable that you must filter out distances longer than 1,200m

470 selections
304 winners
LOT of 8.4%

You cannot turn that around !!

moeee 27th September 2012 06:18 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech

Why do you jump into every thread and argue against a theory that is different to your opinion??

If it was me jumping in , it would be to point out a glaring error.
Instead of getting a Thank You all it usually leads me to is getting banned.

Vortech 27th September 2012 06:23 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
So was mine regarding the distances Vortech.

It's inevitable that you must filter out distances longer than 1,200m

470 selections
304 winners
LOT of 8.4%

You cannot turn that around !!

We were at a close to break even result now at around a 8.4% loss. helpful how???

Barny 27th September 2012 06:25 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
Why do you jump into every thread and argue against a theory that is different to your opinion??

I've never jumped into a thread about laying, or Betfair, which takes up the majority of the threads on here. It appears that you only want the good news, to hear opinions that back up your views.

Sorry if I've brought some FACTS, and logic to this thread.

Barny 27th September 2012 06:27 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
We were at a close to break even result now at around a 8.4% loss. helpful how???
The loss is for distances over 1,200m Vortech. It's helpful 'coz it will save you from LOSING !!

1,000m to 1,200m shows a profit, but reduces the number of selections quite dramatically.

Barny 27th September 2012 06:38 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
If you have an email addy I can send you the whole data sheet tomorrow.

Interesting I ran the test for Oct 07 to Aug 12 for SP - 1st, Price Fav 1.1 - 1.5. all races, all days

1775 Races, 1170 Wins (65.9% SR), -7.1% POT

Metro Brisbane - 75%
Metro Adelaide - 70%
Metro Melbourne - 70%
Metro Sydney - 76%
Metro Perth - 71%
Rural QLD - 69%
Rural NSW - 66%
Rural VIC - 66%
Rural SA - 61%
Rural WA - 74%
New Zealand - 49% - good laying options
Hong Kong - 58%

Good - 66%
Dead - 67%
Slow - 65%
Heavy - 59%

Colt - 71%
Filly - 69%
Gelding - 64%
Mare - 62%

Age 2 - 69%
3 - 68%
4 - 64%
5 - 60%
6 - 57%
7 - 45%
8 - 67%
9 - 67%

Monday races - 59%
Tuesday - 61%
Wednesday - 62%
Thursday - 62%
Friday - 70%
Saturday 70%
Sunday 64%
You'll love this Vortech, the result comparison is unbelievably close.

7 days a week all Venues (I prev put up METRO only)

4.52 selections
2,657 winners
7.09% LOT (compared to your 7.1% LOT)

Ya still cannot win tho' !!!!!!

Happy to confirm your results, no thanks required.

Vortech 27th September 2012 06:39 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
I've never jumped into a thread about laying, or Betfair, which takes up the majority of the threads on here. It appears that you only want the good news, to hear opinions that back up your views.

Sorry if I've brought some FACTS, and logic to this thread.

I guess going to the dogs for 15 years, 5 nights a week gave you such knowledge.

Vortech 27th September 2012 06:41 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
You'll love this Vortech, the result comparison is unbelievably close.

7 days a week all Venues (I prev put up METRO only)

4.52 selections
2,657 winners
7.09% LOT (compared to your 7.1% LOT)

Ya still cannot win tho' !!!!!!

Happy to confirm your results, no thanks required.


Try this out

If you take then the selection process to

Brisbane, Melb, Ade, Syd, Perth and WA Rural
remove heavy tracks
only Friday, Saturday and Sunday races
Colts and fillies

Barny 27th September 2012 06:41 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
I guess going to the dogs for 15 years, 5 nights a week gave you such knowledge.

Gave me the knowledge to do my own research Vortech. Going to do a live trail of this system ??

Barny 27th September 2012 06:42 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
Try this out

If you take then the selection process to

Brisbane, Melb, Ade, Syd, Perth and WA Rural
remove heavy tracks
only Friday, Saturday and Sunday races
Colts and fillies
But then you're filtering this system to a point where YOU have argued that there's not enough selections Vortech ....

Vortech 27th September 2012 06:46 PM

You said it could not win.

I'm showing you with filters against the original rules can show a profit.

Barny 27th September 2012 06:49 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
You said it could not win.

I'm showing you with filters against the original rules can show a profit.

I posted that 1000 and 1200 showed a profit.

You and I have argued about the number of selections required to make a system repeatable, and now it seems you're prepared to filter this system down to a level of selections which you would have previously argued wasn't going to repeat. That's OK.

On paper this system can be modified to win. I maintain that when you hit a losing streak of 3 or more you're finished.

Vortech 27th September 2012 06:52 PM

1000m and 1200m is back filtered. Doomed to fail.

Good luck with that

Barny 27th September 2012 06:53 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
1000m and 1200m is back filtered. Doomed to fail.

Good luck with that
Then your results are doomed to fail too Vortech as we've just proven that our databases are almost identical.

Vortech 27th September 2012 06:56 PM

I've been backing them for 15 years now and making a 7% POT with rules.
The results speak for themselves.

So while you were at the greyhounds I was making big coin. Managed to put my deposit on a house with the winnings.

Very happy :)

Vortech 27th September 2012 07:12 PM

Post deleted. Not appropriate for the Forum. If you have objections about a member's posts send in a TOU or place them on ignore. Click User Cp at top left then Buddy/Ignore Lists. Thank you. Moderator.

Barny 27th September 2012 07:22 PM

Post deleted. You have made a generalised flame about the members of your Forum Community. You have also told them you "couldn't care less" whether you are "on here or not." You have been suspended for a week to think about your posting style and whether you wish to follow the Posting Guidelines applicable to your Forum Community and so remain a member of the Forum Community. Thank you. Moderator 3.

Vortech 28th September 2012 05:44 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Ta mate.. looks like a lolly jar stacked full of black jelly beans.

LORD
GREYSTOKE
3RD
@
gmail.com


Cheers LG

Sorry no luck with email. Is the address case sensitive?

Vortech 29th September 2012 09:08 AM

Starting a tab on the running results

Today their is two selections

If under $1.50 I'll back using the Best of three totes on LuxBet.
If greater than $1.50 I will fix the bet

SR3 H1 - non fixed
SR4 H1 - Sportsbet fixed at $1.90

Regards


All times are GMT +10. The time now is 11:13 PM.

Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.