32 selections returned 32.10 against tatts prices.

Hi All,

I'm back in the office now after a long and draining 4 days of work plus catching up with mates having long drinking sessions. Went to the soccer saturday afternoon for the first time to watch Adelaide United which was good fun, something i'd do again. I'll go through the past 4-5 days stats and give you a big run down later tonight of the individual day stats and the overall stats since I started posting the plays in here. I'm pretty certain its still in profit, also i'm not sure all the plays I posted would have been plays had I been able to review the races myself each day but i'll cover off on all that tonight. Only one play for today:

Wellington - Race 4

No. 6 Dunderry

Here are the stats gents:

Wednesday:
25% SR
Straight Staking 12% LOT
$5/$3 Staking 22% LOT

Thursday:
50% SR
Straight Staking 125% POT
$5/$3 Staking 150% POT

Friday:
25% SR
Straight Staking 8% LOT
$5/$3 Staking 9% POT

Saturday:
29% SR
Straight Staking 4% POT
$5/$3 Staking 3% POT

Sunday:
38% SR
Straight Staking 79% POT
$5/$3 Staking 92% POT

Overall:
35% Strike Rate (32 Winners 91 Bets)
Straight Staking 40% POT
$5/$3 Staking 48% POT (+$190.50 in 8 days)

Note the top selection has performed a lot better with the following overall stats:

SR 43%
POT 67%
+40.2 units

1 winner from 1 bet today gents. Paid $2.90 on tatts but $3.40 for top tote.

All of my stats are recorded at tatts prices but if your using BF, Top Tote or something similar you can probably add a good 10% to the $ profit and maybe 5% to the POT figures.

Overall we're +$201.00 in 9 days now with the $5/$3 staking and the top rater only is +42.1 units now. I'm starting to be pretty re-assured that at the very least my top rater using this 75% method is profitable over the long term. I'll continue to post the plays for another week or two for those that are interested and if it continues to be profitable then I figure i've proven my ratings to be profitable in forward testing :).

Well done evajb001. Looking good.

At the start of this thread, you said that the idea of 75% plays was first discussed in another thread.

evajb could you please supply tthe link where the notion of 75% plays was first introduced. Thanking you and thanks for supplying your selections.

I can't remember what thread it was now but I can explain quickly.

Basically I do my ratings by applying a score to each horse, and using the scores I estimate my odds for each horse. Once i've got these odds I sort to find my top rated horse, 2nd rated and so on.

If the odds of my top rated horse are less than 75% of the 2nd rated horse, then its a play. If the 2nd rated horse is less than 75% of the 3rd rated horses odds, then the top 2 raters are a play.

I hope that makes sense, if not I can provide examples.

Its in the Quadrella thread but I can't remember the exact post.

It's in the following thread:

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ead.php?t=25273

It starts off by looking at laying my bottom 3 rated horses but moves into a discussion of 75% plays.

Plays for today gents, not exactly excited about any of these, the quality of fields today was pretty poor but see how we go:

Townsville - Race 5

No. 2 Rattus Conatus
No. 9 Slick Line

Townsville - Race 6

No. 5 Panecillo

Taree - Race 7

No. 13 Scarrzam

Seymour - Race 7

No. 9 Get Pronto

UB, a question for you. The fib sequence you used on short priced harness/galops in another thread, do you think that may work on my top rater for a place?

So far in all my back testing the longest run of outs was about 9 and thats solely for the win, unfortunately I haven't kept any place stats. May be something to monitor with my plays from now on?

It could work. Best to just run it over the selections for as long as you can to be certain you are comfortable with it. I would say at least 4-6 months of testing the staking and at least a full bank coverage before doing it live.

Here are today's plays gents, will post Ascot plays (if there are any) shortly.

Kembla Grange - Race 2

No.
4 Scram

Kembla Grange - Race 5

No.
2 Floor Show
4 Deralon

Kembla Grange - Race 6

No.
2 Kings Dominion
6 Nissile

Bendigo - Race 5

No.
2 Lone Star

Bendigo - Race 6

No.
2 Consecrate
7 Scottish Queen

and Ascot:

Ascot - Race 1

No.
8 Secret Times
2 Kimberley Cowboy

Ascot - Race 6

No.
4 Terkel

Ascot - Race 8

No.
1 Ask Me Nicely

One play today, in a bit of a slump at the moment, not sure if its due to the really poor quality of the mid-week races due to the top quality of the weekend races or something similar but ah well. I'll update with full stats either tonight or tomorrow.

Rockhampton - Race 6

No. 6 Rishona

Don't worry too much mate, my suite of systems just had it's first losing month in almost a year so it could just be the lower end of the cycle for you - today is the start of a brand new month :)

Peaks and troughs evajb001.

As long as the peaks outweigh the troughs, it's business time. :)

Turns out yesterday in that same race I actually would've had the winner if i'd done my ratings just before the race. Due to the change in track conditions from dead to good, it changed my ratings a bit and the winner would've actually been my play. Something to look out for in the future I guess.

No plays at ipswich today so only plays are on the night races at canterbury and MV. Will post them up later today lads.

It's likely ill be out of the house having a punt tomorrow so will do my best to have everything posted before 11am SA time.

Hi people, feeling good about these tonight:

Canterbury - Race 3

No.
2 Triumphant

Moonee Valley - Race 6

No.
1 Sabres
7 Street Crier


Even though its not a play I also like the short fave in race 4 at Canterbury. Enjoy your friday night people :)

Nice work evajb... just picked up 6s at BF on race 3

Cheers LG

nice one ill probably get $3.20 or so at best on Top Tote. Maybe I should drop $200 in a BF account and start betting this system 100% seriously myself. While i've been posting the plays here seriously i've been betting them myself on and off due to being busy etc etc. Obviously the system works so its probably time i follow it on BF, get the best odds and let it run its course.

Might start tomorrow, leave my sportsbet account for more ad hoc betting on the NBA and horses etc.

Pls do mate - I obviously snatched a lucky break just before the odds tumbled down. I usually get the timing wrong I might add !

Cheers LG

LG, You could lay it now at $3.50 or whatever it is for a free bet and you're guaranteed not to lose anything should, for whatever reason, the horse not prevail. Happy Days.

Nice one TO. Placed 1st lay bet ever at 3.30.

LG

Nice one LG. You didn't lose anything however if you had have hedged the bet you would have won some money no matter what horse won which is what I try and do when trading.

Eagle Farm - Race 3

No.
2 One Face Value

Eagle Farm - Race 4

No.
1 Fillydelphia
3 Morning Captain

Eagle Farm - Race 5

No.
5 Ticket to Dream
6 Cracco

Eagle Farm - Race 7

No.
3 Balkuin

Flemington - Race 1

No.
4 Al Aneed

Flemington - Race 3

No.
1 Dear Demi

Flemington - Race 4

No.
9 Snitzerland

Flemington - Race 5

No.
7 Ocean Park

Flemington - Race 6

No.
1 It's A Dundeel
5 Hvasstan

Flemington - Race 7

No.
1 Streama

Flemington - Race 9

No.
4 Fawkner

Rosehill - Race 3

No.
2 Bound To Blush

Rosehill - Race 4

No.
10 Drinks All Round

Rosehill - Race 6

No.
7 Under The Sun
2 Merlin Mustang

Rosehill - Race 7

No.
9 Secluded
4 Whisperossa

Morphettville - Race 6

No.
5 Aregee McLaren
6 Lucky Sunday

Ascot - Race 1

No.
10 Gingerman
7 Pure Adrenalin

Ascot - Race 4

No.
5 Travinator

Ascot - Race 5

No.
6 Stay Lady Stay
2 Lunar Image

Ascot - Race 8

No.
7 Iseethingsyoudon't
11 Hey Blondie

Good luck today.

It's funny how different people can come up with same ratings with no doubt completely different methods, all those are my top rated as well only a few of the ones where you list 2 are swapped about.

Not a great day today so far.

I would suggest you wait a lot longer till you start betting these as it appears to be failing at the moment. Is this just a temporary run of bad luck, or a result of backfitting the ratings ? You won't know till you have done a lot more live selections.

I don't think too many using systems would have had a good day today UB, you'd need to be a genius to pick many of the winners in the prominent races today and there aren't too many of them around.

Eva, do you use Bet Selector?

True there were quite a few longer shots winning today.

Melbourne Cup week often throws up unfathomable results.

.. and pay day for the bookies?

Somehow that makes sense in a way,
Logical given volumes and the objective of their trade

LG

Spot on SpeedyBen,

On your Average Saturday there are 3-5 half decent chances and a couple that have been set specifically for the race.

Come Melbourne Cup Carnival and it's more like 80-90% of the field has been set for the race.

Tough going for us mere mortals.

No tips today ?

I thought that there were only 2 chances in the Mackinnon and that Alcopop was unlucky and not far off Ocean Park last time they met. I had access to the bookie who is offering double odds on all Grp 1 this spring so i decided that Alco offered a good chance at $11. Bewdy!!

Smart betting.

Hi Guys,

Sorry for being out of action for a few days. There haven't been many plays anyhow due to the massive fields etc and plus it was my birthday monday (next year its melb cup day, might have to make an effort to attend).

In reply quickly to macs: No I don't use Bet Selector

I made a few sheckles on Green Moon yesterday so its time to live bet my 75% plays. I'll be starting with just a $200 bankroll, betting 1% of previous max daily bankroll.

i.e. Day 1 bankroll goes from $200 to $215
All bets on Day 2 are then 1% of $215 or $2.15

Day 2 bankroll goes from $215 to $207
All bets on Day 3 are still 1% of $215 or $2.15 and so on

I'll be posting all plays in here for now and we'll see how it goes. I'll be keeping very close records of all bets in a spreadsheet i've got which shows all stats etc that I think i've shared on here previously. I'll also be looking for any opportunities to adjust the method slightly or my staking however I wont be doing anything outragous as this seems to be profitable over the long-term.

Any questions/queries then fire away, i'll be updating on lunch break with today's plays. Also note from now on i'll only be backing my top rater using this method and not the second rater. While the second rater has shown to be profitable previously, it was only marginal in some months and i'd prefer to just follow my toppy. I'll look at using a combination of SB or BF to execute my bets as well, mainly SB to start with and then possibly move towards BF in the future.

Cheers

Good luck with it mate, any chance you could post up your spreadsheet for download as it was very good.

All bets placed with stake of $2

Eagle Farm - Race 7

No.
4 Defenceman

Eagle Farm - Race 8

No.
2 Silver Command

Grafton - Race 4

No.
2 River Spirit

Kyneton - Race 5

No.
10 Ferguson

Kyneton - Race 7

No.
2 Streets Away