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Your a brave man betting on Slow tracks Michal but good luck.
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Thanks Darky, it was a good result yestrday
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Jut a question?
When you say DRY I assume you mean no bets on Dead /Slow /Heavy TC. Is that correct? Cheers darky |
Hi Darky,
For this exercise I consider Dry track to be Good or Dead track condition.
You can always use the TAB or Betfair to determine the favouritism although you may have slightly different result it should even out in the end to much the same. Just the same as late race scratchings might add horses to the selection list during the day, we obviously can't help that and can't keep updating our posts but with almost 50-50 chance the horse will win-loose it all pretty much just evens out in the end. Post 40 was where we started adding the WET system and the rules are set out there as well. Kind regards |
Hi Michal,
Thank you for your very clear post to me. Cheers darky |
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Nice result yesterday. 4/5. or 5/6 based on the raw selections.
So far the forum curse is having no effect, as we are right on schedule with the strike rate and well over for the POT from the entire period of the live trial. The same applies for the substantially longer 5 month live trial on our website. While the others are frantically searching for the next possible method, our well researched method grounded in a large enough sample continues to perform, because we have a real edge over the market here. It's interesting to note the number of views on this thread based on the result of the previous day. When the result is good the views go up the next day when the result is not favorable the views go down. This is a typical losing punter behavior. To win, find a successful method and be consistent in what you do! Always! Code:
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11/06/2013
No selections |
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17/06/2013
No selections |
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Good to see your Handicapping for some of these out of the way places.
A lot of punters miss these to their detriment. Cheers. |
Hey Darky,
Thanks, your are right, the other point is that the pro circuit misses these because of the liquidity, which means that a smaller punter with a bet size under say $500 (remember we are betting the fave) has the ability to profit better from the less intelligence in these markets. Of course you still have to get the winner! Michal |
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there were no selections on 24/06/2013 |
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Hands up those who gave up !!!
It has been a bit of a mixed bag this month. So lets tally up the totals and see what has happened this month and for the entire time we have posted these selections LIVE here.
Remember we are expecting a 46.4% strike rate and 4.6% POT as this is the base line from over 2700 selections of our DRY FAVE system. June Figures: 56 bets 27 wins 48.2% strike rate and 10.93% POT Since thread start: 67 bets 31 wins 46.3% strike rate and 5.18% POT I know that we have been adding the WET FAVE selections and while that is not officially our test I'll add those figures to this as well. Since thread start: 80 bets 37 wins 46.3% strike rate and 5.71% POT Kind regards |
Good stuff.Keep them coming.
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I concur Darky. Remarkable stuff given that we are talking nearly 1 winner in every 2 selections.
Michal, can I ask... are you including only those that started SP Fav (as per your original rules) OR is this the lot? Cheers LG |
Hi LG,
These are the final selections, those that were SP favourite. The over all results have been slightly lower then expected. If you were to take them all (107 bets in June) then the strike rate is 35.5% but they loose 9% POT for this month which is down on the average which is 37% strike rate and -1.3% POT from 4200 selections. HOWEVER If you were to bet them proportionally then they lose just 3 cence on turnover based on SP/NSW, using a better pricing model (equivalent to Top Fluctuations, Best tote or Betfair) the pot jumps to 4.3%. Again that is this month. I would not like to jump to conclusions here as this may be just a short term variance and making decisions based on a few selections (107 bets) is a sure fire way to loose the plot. Also the results could vary for the Favourite systems depending on what you chose to use as the 'SP'; like betfair favourite or similar. Also late scratchings may add a few selections that were not posted live before the races. Unfortunately it also happens that we lose winners from our list because TC changes and they still win, so we can't claim them even though the bets went on before the TC change. Its all swings and roundabouts. You say "Remarkable stuff given that we are talking nearly 1 winner in every 2 selections." I still would like to impress upon people that even with these results we have had 6 outs in a row this month and 10 outs maximum historically. The maximum draw-down this month has been 9 units, and its currently at 8 units so the last few days have been rather trying. This is just a lesson on the reality of punting. It may be uncomfortable, but everyone has these, just some wont tell you about them ! We'll see how we go next month. Thanks for your comments; they are greatly appreciated. |
Hi LG,
Thanks again for your post which prompted me to check the proportional betting results on the raw system output (without qualifying selections for favouritsm). In the post below I did the test on June selections (107 bets) and I wondered if the positive result is just a fluke or not. Believe it or not I have never tested the raw output on proportional betting because when I constructed the system our program didn't have that function. I have however done so now and the results are surprising to say the least! Not only are they positive, but the number of selections increases from 2800 over all to 4300 over all and its completely reliant on Axis ratings and filters without any outside help from the market! ************************************************** ****** Selections 4300 (3.5 bets average per day) Winners 1593 Strike rate 37% Betting 1% of bank level stakes or to take out 1% proportionally Level stake POT -1.31% Proportional betting POT 1.51% Maximum run of outs 17, Max Bank draw-down 26% average draw down 8% The above figures are based on NSW/SP just like all our figures we quote. Applying a better betting pricing model equivalent to betting Top fluctuation or Best tote or betting on betfair produces the following results. Level stakes POT 2.10% Max Bank draw down 48% average 11% Proportional betting POT 4.53% Max Bank draw down 23% average 9% ************************************************** ****** Increasing the take out from 1% to 2% proportionally exponentially increases the profits but it does so at the expense of raising the bank draw down to 41% however the real dollar profit increases due to the turn over. There are several Betting scenarios that produce different outcomes, many of them push the envelope too far with bank risks too high for real life betting. I have written about this in another thread, without knowing the risks an incorrectly set betting method can destroy any system outcome due to unsustainable bank draw-down or under utilise the systems performance if the settings are too cautious. Lucky for our clients such information is available in the betting analyser for all subscription levels so they do not go in betting blind. The proportional betting scenario shown above is a vanilla method used by most professional punters where the size of the bet varies based on the bank size and the horses dividend with the take out being ultra conservative at 1% of bank. Kind regards |
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