Carry Forward -0.50c

GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm
Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00
Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11 WON +.30c

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09
Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50 WON +$10 Get in!

Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm
Brisbane Lay at $4.50 Back at $6.00
Sydney Lay at $1.25 Back at $1.19 WON -$0.60c

Essendon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm
Essendon Lay at $1.34 Back at $1.32 WON -$0.20c
Bulldogs Lay at $3.75 Back at $4.00

Overall +$9.00 profit for $10 example stakes.

Overall +$9.00 profit for $10 example stakes.
Forgot to add that the maximum liability to get that $9.00 profit was $25.00.

Gold Coast vs Western Bulldogs 3:20pm
Gold Coast Lay at $1.28
Western Bulldogs Lay at $4.80

Carlton vs Adelaide 4.40pm
Carlton Lay at $2.36
Adelaide Lay at $1.74

Being fairly ignorant about sports betting I have a question about draws - doesn't a draw result in all back & lay bets losing? so in these examples would mean a $40 loss?

On reflection I assume the lay bet must win, or else there is no way this method could be used on soccer.

Nice examples, every market is greater than 100%. Lay to payout the same for as much as the market can stand. No need to do anything else.

Back bets would lose, but lays would get the lot.

In markets where there is a draw selection offered, you do the same procedure as above on that selection as well.
If a draw occurs on a sporting event where there is no Draw selection
offered, then...

Dead heats

Unless stated otherwise in the Specific Sports Rules the Dead Heat Rule applies to bets on a market where there are more winners than expected.
Dead heat is a term that describes when two or more selections in an event tie. If a “dead-heat” between two selections is declared on any event, half the stake is applied to the selection at full odds and the other half is lost. If more than two “dead-heats” are declared, the stake is proportioned accordingly.

CP, I understand what you are doing but laying both at less than 100% and backing both at more than 100% can't be a good strategy, can it?

Take that back as I've just run the numbers on a hypothetical.
Lay 1.28 Back 1.20 Loses .80
Lay 4.80 Back 5.60 Wins 8.00
The equivalent of 10.00 on a 5.60 chance.

ps, still running the UK thing that you showed me?

Here's something for those that get banned, you'll need a massive bank, but won't get banned. They'll think you're a complete mug.

I found some Euro bookies that offer odds up to 1501 and a few more that offer 5001 on Formula 1. Given Betfair's maximum is 1000, and you green up, it's risk free profit.

But is it practical to expose that much capital?

No liquidity dropped and that was the problem we were facing and why you started to get different outcomes. Switched to sports, a lot more manual work and time involved, but money always there.

As for the above example: if you risk say $8.00 to win $80, that's odds of $11.00 not $5.60. and there's your edge.

Thanks.

I see alot of early World Cup round 1 soccer matches are available, so taking the Australia/Chile game as an example (99% market), I would lay now at avail prices

Chile $1.56
Aust $8.20
Draw $4.50

& say I could back on game day at 99% again

Chile $1.40
Aust $10.00
Draw $5.60

results excluding comm

Chile win $10*(1.40-1.56) -$1.60
Aust win $10*(10.00-8.20) +$19.80
Draw win $10*(5.60-4.50) +$13.20

Am I on the right track?

Exactly, and look at the effective odds you've got to liability!
Of course there will be lots of small losses, but when an outsider wins it's cash in the bank way over the odds. Plus there are times when the favourite drifts and wins at short prices. Not every transaction will be an overlay, I have got under the effective odds a few times, and the same effective odds also, but the overlays achieved outweigh any losses.

The downside is the amount of manual work involved, scanning sports, putting your lays on, THEN making sure all backs are put on right before the match.
The good side is that id you make a boo boo, and you will, and miss out on putting the back part on for whatever reason, you only lose less than 1% anyway.

I now have my spreadsheet and transfer the pre event time to my outlook calendar. I then, sync my Iphone and get a reminder. So I can trade out on the mobile site if not at home.

EPL soccer is brilliant because the have SP. I have also asked about having sport SP in the Betfair Q&A on the 27th.

Now to take this a step further.
Instead of having 10 back on the bolter you only have 9 leaving this result.
+.20 or +3.40

That would be utopia, but you don't know for sure if it will firm and be left exposed greater on the outsider if it firms. Quite a few have.

Cheers CP

Much like tennis for most of the year, the amount of bet-able soccer matches during any given week is well frankly, insane. So yes, I can see there would be a fair amount of work keeping on top of it all.

Speaking of tennis, it would also appear a perfect sport for this strategy with lots of well supported minor tournaments throughout the year.

I know you would have done your research so how often does the bolter firm?, because this could cause some nasty looking books and results if they win.

Could this be applied to racing? the drifters being your winners.

Isnt this basically trading so would attract the turnover charge on many racing markets.

Not that often, and they win even less often, so overall yes you will get a bad beat, but the odds you're getting on overlays compensate. but yes you will get some bad results now and then. Overall it is a very good winning strategy including those occasional hiccups.

that's what we were doing automated months ago, but liquidity is too thin and there are too many options to lose. In sports there are only two or three options (the draw) so you stand a better chance.
Racing is where this evolved for me, and I then found sports was far better in all ways, far more work, as it's all manual and very difficult to find all the correct events and back back just before each event starts.
I stick to majors leagues in rugby, soccer, tennis, AFL, Basketball, Baseball, gridiron.
As a rule I never touch minor leagues, darts, badminton, politics, golf.
There's more than enough work in the majors.

Just be aware that there is a risk when betting on single players v team's of players. In a team, if one of the players gets a bad knock, they can replace him, not so in tennis. Be aware of rules in regard retirement due to injury. Some bookmakers refund your money, others like Ladbrokes don't.

RP, I would only apply this to singles tennis Open mens and womens matches.
And it's all done on Betfair.
All bets are on or off if retirement, so same same.

Tennis
If a player or pairing retires or is disqualified in any match, the player or pairing progressing to the next round (or winning the tournament in the case of a final) will be deemed the winner. However if less than one set has been completed at the time of the retirement or disqualification then all bets relating to that individual match will be void.

http://www.betfair.com/en/aboutUs/R...nd.Regulations/

Maybe this might be a big factor why my back bets when arbing seem to win overall.

Gold Coast vs Western Bulldogs 3:20pm
Gold Coast Lay at $1.28 Back at $1.22 Potential loss $6.00
Western Bulldogs Lay at $4.80 Back at $5.30 Potential profit $5.00

That's not a good leverage in this case. :(

I did notice however, someone is backing the shorties to the tune of 25k and laying in play for the same. Odds were $1.28 back, $1.22 lay.
I'll tell you that's a mammoth risk based on some of the shorties going down convincingly this season. He's not going to get even a quarter of that matched before the bounce.

Lucky, he got matched this time straight away after the the bounce and only because two goals were kicked in fairly quick time, otherwise he'd be hanging on the edge.

Carlton vs Adelaide 4.40pm
Carlton Lay at $2.36 Back at $2.48 potential profit $1.20
Adelaide Lay at $1.74 Back at $1.67 potential loss 0.70c

These are just examples and odds didn't move greatly as I only went in late last night. Getting in early but still with decent liquidity is the key.

-$4.80 this time
+$4.20 for the thread.

Had a go on most of the 1st round French Open games last night - layed around 8 hours prior & backed 15 mins before the start for a small overall loss.

What surprised me was how little the odds had changed despite relatively large increases in amounts matched.

I would be getting in earlier and out later.
Also early rounds don't move that much as opinion is and interest isn't at a peak.
But keep going you will find a lot of matches with bigger movement and you will get that loss back.

The loss was not an issue as I looked at as a way to gauge how it works with little risk (not a big believer in paper trials), & I plan to keep at it for a while.

Hey Chrome, would the same principal be able to be applied to say the first 2 favourites, that is lay them early then back late? with the assumption that if 1 firms the other will probably drift at the same time. Also I have downloade some betfair data to excel to do some research and was wondering if you could explain the easiest way for me to eliminate or hide the harness races as well as the place markets for the gallops and perhaps the inplay prices as well as this would make my research a lot less time consuming having to scroll through data that I dont really need.
Thanks Chrome.

Hi Dr, yes it could IF there is early liquidity.
Be very wary of Betfair data, there are numerous errors in both the SP and other data, such as non runners included, prices recorded as $1.00 when in fact it was $5.00 etc etc. I use a crosschecking system, but I'm sure I've missed one or two errors. If you're talking about the general data and not the SP data, then, you can filter it out in excel using the autofilter facility.
To eliminate harness for example, you search for contains Trot or Pace, this will bring them all up and you can delete them.
It's a matter of seeing which data is contained in each field and then eliminating what you don't want, such as "IP" for in play.

I think a couple of the people on the forum actually grab their own data via webscraping, because the Betfair data has a lot of errors.

Thanks CP, will be wary of the betfair data, just looking for general trends in price movements.