How can you bet in play on any other sport anywhere in the world (including Australia) apart from horses and trots?
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Bet Internet ;)
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RaceCensus has been updated to the end of February and updates for existing clients posted out.
There are over 2.3 Million records in the database covering Metropolitan, Provincial and Country racing. This covers over 226,000 races! |
March Update
RaceCensus has been updated to the end of March 2015 and updates for existing clients posted out.
There are over 2.3 Million records in the database covering Metropolitan, Provincial and Country racing. This covers over 228,000 races! |
RaceCensus has been updated to the end of April 2015 and updates for existing clients posted out.
There are over 2.3 Million records in the database covering Metropolitan, Provincial and Country racing. This covers over 229,000 races! |
RaceCensus has been updated to the end of May 2015 and updates for existing clients posted out.
There are over 2.3 Million records in the database covering Metropolitan, Provincial and Country racing. This covers over 230,000 races! Stay tuned for some exciting news coming up before the June update..... |
The June update has been completed and will be mailed out today.
For the current run, I have converted all the old track conditions to reflect the new track ratings scale. I will be working slowly on converting the past runs to the new scale as well, it's a very time consuming job! The free systems have been updated as well. There are now over 2.4 million records in the database and more than 232,000 races. Here is the old to new track going conversion I used: <pre>New Rating Previous Rating Firm 1 (Fast) Firm 2 (Good2) Good 3 (Good3) Good 4 (Dead4) Soft 5 (Dead5) Soft 6 (Slow6) Soft 7 (Slow7) Heavy 8 (Heavy8) Heavy 9 (Heavy9) Heavy10 (Heavy10)</pre> *Please note that RaceCensus does work on all versions of Windows, but does not work on Apple Mac systems.* |
The July update has been completed and will be mailed out today.
For the current run, I have converted all the old track conditions to reflect the new track ratings scale. I am still working on converting the past runs to the new track going scale as well. Future upgrades will include horse's placing on the General page, and track opening and closing prices as well. It's a work in progress and will be implemented over the next few months with each update. The free systems have been updated as well - all show a profit over more than 15 years. There are now over 2.4 million records in the database and more than 233,000 races. With your purchase of RaceCensus you get 12 months of additional free updates and the price has remained the same for nearly ten years! Updates after your 12 months of free updates are still only $60.00 and you can request an update at any time and get all the latest data. To get a $60 update, you must have purchased RaceCensus and be a known client ;) *Please note that RaceCensus does work on all versions of Windows, but does not work on Apple Mac systems.* |
The August update has been completed and will be mailed out today.
There are now over 2.4 million records in the database and more than 233,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races. *Please note that RaceCensus does work on all versions of Windows, but does not work on Apple Mac systems.* |
Here's some interesting stats taken from the database.
Last start winners Favourite this run Last run turf, this run turf. 33.90% Strike Rate 11.41% Loss Last start winners Favourite this run Last run synthetic, this run synthetic. 35.36% Strike Rate 13.13% Loss Last start winners Favourite this run Last run synthetic, this run turf. 31.29% Strike Rate 14.81% Loss Last start winners Favourite this run Last run turf, this run synthetic. 33.03% Strike Rate 10.61% Loss According those using ratings could adjust for such conditions by using impact values added to their ratings. Highest strike rate being synthetic to synthetic. Lowest strike rate being snthetic to turf. Adjustments to other rankings could in fact snare some nice winners and avoid some poor value bets. Just a small sample of the versatility of the database. |
Past purchasers of Racecensus are entitled to purchase an update for $60.00 which means even if you were a client years ago, you can get all the latest data and not miss a thing for that price. I think that's a brilliant value.
If you want monthly updates again, it works out cheaper to repurchase the program and save $315.00 for a years subscription. Posting this because I don't think a lot of past clients are aware of the cost savings and the opportunity. |
Hey CP,
I have a new computer and don't actually have a CD drive anymore. Is there any chance you have older versions of the database from when i purchased it for download? Otherwise might just have to sling you $60. I hadn't used it in a little while and went to start looking at something last night and was like, whoops no CD drive anymore haha. Cheers |
Hi Josh,
No I don't keep older versions, the master database is updated and the new file replaces the one sent out to clients. I tell you what I can do, purchase an update via this link and I'll send it to you on a USB stick inclusive. To purchase a one off update this is the link. http://www.ozmium.com.au/order/extr...mer_details.php In the how did you hear about us box, just put RaceCensus Update, thanks. |
Is the RaceCensus database / updates available via digital delivery (download) or purely via post?
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The file size of the database is enormous because it covers all Metropolitan Provincial and Country races in Australia since late 1999.
Therefore, the database is posted to you on DVD. If you live overseas, you do not have to pay GST on your purchase and postage is still included in the purchase price. |
RaceCensus has been updated to 30/09/2015.
Updates have been posted out to clients. RaceCensus now has over 2.45 million records and more than 236,000 races. Compatible with all versions of Windows. |
*SPECIAL OFFER*
NEW!
Earn a $100 cash rebate on your purchase. Email Guy only please http://www.propun.com.au/contact.html and ask how to qualify. (Before or after purchase. Also applies retrospectively to past purchasers.) |
NEW!
Earn a $100 cash rebate on your purchase. Email Guy only please http://www.propun.com.au/contact.html and ask how to qualify. (Before or after purchase. Also applies retrospectively to past purchasers.) RaceCensus has been updated to 31/10/2015. Updates have been posted out to clients. RaceCensus now has over 2.47 million records and more than 237,000 races. Compatible with all versions of Windows. |
RaceCensus has been updated to 30/11/2015.
Updates have been posted out to clients. RaceCensus now has over 2.48 million records and more than 238,000 races. Compatible with all versions of Windows. Don't forget you can earn a $100 cash rebate on your purchase. Email Guy only please http://www.propun.com.au/contact.html and ask how to qualify. (Before or after purchase. Also applies retrospectively to past purchasers.) |
December Update
RaceCensus has been updated to 31/12/2015.
Updates have been posted out to clients. RaceCensus now has over 2.49 million records and more than 240,000 races. Compatible with all versions of Windows. Don't forget you can earn a $100 cash rebate on your purchase. Email Guy only please http://www.propun.com.au/contact.html and ask how to qualify. (Before or after purchase. Also applies retrospectively to past purchasers. |
Got my update thanks Chrome Prince.
What your database has done for me more than anything else is: * Provided me with an understanding that a run of outs is inevitable and manageable, psychologically speaking * Provided discipline to my punting * Shown that systems can and do work provided there's logic involved and we're comparing apples with apples * Saved me a fortune by adopting a methodical approach I've got one ring ding of a system that wuz conceived in the 70's that would work underwater in the near vicinity of an unknown volcanoe!!!!!!!! Anyone who really likes stats ought to get this database!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
Thanks Tipsy, appreciate the feedback.
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Chrome Prince,
Been doing some testing with the older version I've got and one query I had was when filtering by the last 600m time, is that time based on the horses individual time or the races time, i.e. time between leader entering the final 600m and a horse winning the race. Cheers |
Sorry for the late reply Josh, it is the race time sectional.
I recognise that the individual horse sectional would be better to have, however, there are problems with getting this for all meetings, and also makes some horses look better or worse than they are depending on tempo or pace. Having said that, you'll notice that the final 600m sectional system rules, still works after more than 15 years. :) |
No worries CP, thanks for the reply :)
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RaceCensus has been updated to 31/01/2016.
Updates have been posted out to clients yesterday. RaceCensus now has over 2.50 million records and more than 241,000 races. Compatible with all versions of Windows. Don't forget you can earn a $100 cash rebate on your purchase. Email Guy only please http://www.propun.com.au/contact.html and ask how to qualify. (Before or after purchase). Also applies retrospectively to past purchasers. Tips and notes: Weight ratio - previously weight ratio has been the difference between the weight carried by the topweight and the weight carried by the second topweight. It was only recorded for the topweight. A potential customer has asked if he could test races where the topweight was carrying more than a certain weight above the rest of the field. Previously, you couldn't include all runners in the race, just the topweight difference, so this has been copied down to all runners, so you can now test any runner in a race where the topweight is carrying x amount above the second topweight. For example, you can test if a favourite is down in the bottom of the weights, and the topweight is carrying 2kg above the rest of the field. Defragmenting: For best performance of the database, as it's getting quite large now, I recommend Smart Defrag by IOBIT. It is completely free and I've been using it for years. You can set it to auto defrag when the system is idle, you can also manually defrag your system. I recommend using defrag and fully optimize your system setting. It is ad free and no spyware is in it. Please note: I have been using this product for years, but hold no responsibility if your drive is on the way out, you have a virus or spyware existing on your computer. |
CP I have a query that you may or may not be able to answer but I didn't really want to start a new thread as I figure its possibly a pretty simply answer for someone who has the data available (possibly yourself).
I'm looking at implementing some systems and I recall someone saying top tote is better than betfair SP in about a 65%/35% ratio or something similar. My query is at what point does this becoming approximately 50%/50% as I assume betfair SP is best once you get to longer shots. i.e. is there a point where you can dictate i'll place top tote bets below X and betfair SP bets above X. I was thinking somewhere around the $15 or $20 mark would be appropriate but someone may have a more accurate answer. Cheers |
Well, there is no exact price cut off.
If it were top fluctuation, then there is a cut off, but top tote versus Betfair SP is not comparing apples with apples and I'll tell you why.... It depends (even with favourites) whether it is a firmer or a drifter. After commission at the short end you often get poorer value after commission with Betfair, than you do with Top Tote. That's the reason you can't just arb, Betfair versus Top Tote at a certain price cut off. |
I thought it would be comparing apples for apples because they are both determined at the time of the race starting (net of commission)?
I also hope its clear I don't plan on doing any arbing, I'm purely looking at the backing side of this. Basically the test is, when a horse is <$4.00 top tote, top tote provides a higher return then betfair SP 64% of the time. Ok lets move the price higher, when a horse is <$10.00 top tote, top tote provide a higher return then betfair SP 53% of the time. Getting closer, continue testing. Now the figures above are all made up because I don't have the data. I'm just wondering if anyone has the data to be able to do that kind of test and find a rough guide for a cutoff point. Obviously it can only be a rough guide because prices firm or drift as CP said but say the cutoff is $15.00 and you know your horse is going to be paying $40-$50 then you know straight away I need to place this on betfair SP. vice versa if you know the horse is likely to start fave at <$4.00 odds then you know straight away ok I'm likely to get more value on top tote so i'll place it with a corporate. Hope that all makes sense. Once again any help hugely appreciated and sorry for the posting in this thread CP. Can start a new thread if you wish? |
No, you can add to this thread if you like.
Even though they are both determined at the start of the race net of commission as you say, if a horse is $10.00 into $5.00 for example, top tote is going to be better, because the Betfairians will have it less than top tote after commission. If it's $5.00 out to $10.00, the Betfairians will have it way over top tote even after commission. However, if you want a cut off regardless, then you're best to download the data from Betfair and I'm sure someone on the forum might have that data, sorry I don't have that data, just closing single tote prices and SP prices on course. |
If a horse is $10.00 into $5.00 wouldn't that be somewhat reflected in both the Betfair SP and Top Tote or am I confusing/missing something?
The concept I'm thinking of may seem reasonably trivial but I just figure if there is some way to eek out any additional bit of value in terms of what price i'm achieving then that just adds to the bottom line. Unfortunately I've only recorded the BetfairSP prices for the 1300 races i've noted down in excel so far with my ratings etc. I've just checked one bookie and they have the top tote results going back some way. Might have to manually grab that and compare over my 1300 races to begin with. |
Did a small test across about 350 races and top tote came out on top and not just across low price ranges but also the higher ones. I know only a small sample size and couldn't really test anything above $100 but it seems just placing everything with Top Tote seems like the way to go for now. I can see why bookies would be banning any accounts with a sniff of being profitable because top tote would just be costing them so much.
Anyway i'll leave the discussion there for now unless others have anything to provide, cheers. |
RaceCensus has been updated to 29/02/2016.
Updates have been posted out to clients yesterday. RaceCensus now has over 2.54 million records and more than 245,000 races. Compatible with all versions of Windows. Don't forget you can earn a $100 cash rebate on your purchase. Email Guy only please http://www.propun.com.au/contact.html and ask how to qualify. (Before or after purchase). Also applies retrospectively to past purchasers. |
RaceCensus has been updated to 31/03/2016.
Updates have been posted out to clients today. RaceCensus now has over 2.58 million records and more than 248,000 races. Compatible with all versions of Windows. Don't forget you can earn a $100 cash rebate on your purchase. Email Guy only please http://www.propun.com.au/contact.html and ask how to qualify. (Before or after purchase). Also applies retrospectively to past purchasers. |
RaceCensus has been updated to 30/04/2016.
Updates have were posted out to clients yesterday. RaceCensus now has over 2.6 million records and more than 254,000 races. Compatible with all versions of Windows. Don't forget you can earn a $100 cash rebate on your purchase. Email Guy only please http://www.propun.com.au/contact.html and ask how to qualify. (Before or after purchase). Also applies retrospectively to past purchasers. |
May Update
RaceCensus has been updated to 31/05/2016.
Updates have were posted out to clients today. RaceCensus now has over 2.6 million records and more than 257,000 races. Compatible with all versions of Windows. Don't forget you can earn a $100 cash rebate on your purchase. Email Guy only please http://www.propun.com.au/contact.html and ask how to qualify. (Before or after purchase). Also applies retrospectively to past purchasers. |
June Update
RaceCensus has been updated to 30/06/2016.
Updates have been posted out to clients. RaceCensus now has over 2.7 million records and more than 260,000 races. Compatible with all versions of Windows. Don't forget you can earn a $100 cash rebate on your purchase. Email Guy only please http://www.propun.com.au/contact.html and ask how to qualify. (Before or after purchase). Also applies retrospectively to past purchasers. |
I don't know how any punter can get anywhere without a database. Even those who pooh pooh databases regularly quote statistics, and they don't see the irony in this! lol
Very well done Chrome Prince, I've not found any irregularities in your database, it's all good, as is your help! (You can send me the $20 later) :) |
July Update
RaceCensus has been updated to 31/07/2016.
Updates have been posted out to clients. RaceCensus now has over 2.7 million records and more than 264,000 races. Compatible with all versions of Windows. Don't forget you can earn a $100 cash rebate on your purchase. Email Guy only please http://www.propun.com.au/contact.html and ask how to qualify. (Before or after purchase). Also applies retrospectively to past purchasers. |
Quote:
Cheers Tipsy, constantly working on any irregularities and rectifying them with each update. Also working on retrospectively changing the old track goings to the newer track goings. |
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