OK after watching a few more videos I am going to have to throw in signoff in my ones which are hard to split.

If I have to order them it is :

Lucia Valentina
Signoff
Protectionist
Admire Rakti

Lucia Valentina or Signoff probably win this depending on runs. Signoff I expect a little closer to the speed and Lucia Valentina may have some traffic to contend with.

If you look at Admire Rakti's form it could be anywhere but the stats probably rule him and protectionist off winning this.

Scarily that leaves me with both SpeedyBens tips and I have to agree they are the two most likely to win based on their age, weight, form and other historical pointers to the likely winner of the cup.

Box the field around them and have them both as standouts. If I am right that is 2*1*F + 2*F*1 + F*2*1 which is $126 for trifecta but this could be broken down a lot better as well by changing F*2*1 to only include real winning chances so lets try this tomorrow :

2*1*F + 2*F*1 +(my 9 other chances)*2*1 = 42+42+18 = $102.

Unless I am mistaken he now qualifies under Speedy's system having made it into the price range. So that's 3 qualifiers in total as this stage.

SPOT ON Rails. I added him in because he qualified on all other factors apart from price. Couldn't see the $26 lasting that long so I locked it in. Obviously got lucky. Keeps coming in on TAB Fixed Win. Was $16 earlier, now $13.

Cheers LG

Good thinking, 99.
The barman is in.

The Barman is 24.0 on BF at 10 pm WA time. That'll do me.

The word Speedy comes to mind ;-)

LG

My M.Cup stand-out trifecta system is

1,3,4,5,11,12,22,24 (to win)
field (to run second
field (to run third).

The outlay providing there are no further scratchings is $4,048 or $405 with a 1% flexi bet.

Good luck, everyone.

Good luck with the longshots Michael.

That's what the girls used to say.

My picks for the Cup are:
Number 11
Mutual Regard

Number 12
Who Shot Thebarman

Best of luck all, because luck in running is the key to winning the Melbourne Cup.
Great to see champion English jockey Ryan Moore in the field, but has Frankie Dettori thrown in the towel?

Thanks, SpeedyBen.

I'm laying all horses in the race with an even TAB number.

I have a prediction : Ryan Moore will ride a shocker.
Where's Darky's pre race selection?

Humble apologies, Ryan.

Shows how hard it to pick the winner. A simple movement. A gap. An opportunity and a win. A split second between a win or a boxed in also ran. As CP said "It is all about the luck in running"
Could have been any of 10 horses to win.

And that is why you pick the best chances and bet all of them and not just one.

yes very sad news.

ALRADO also has a shattered cannon bone and may be put down. Such a shame as it was caused by being spooked by a child with a flag.

Speedy,

Under thread Melb Cup

Another excellent result.

See also - Myer Classic

Well those Melbourne Cup systems didn't do too good. Back to the drawing board with those.

RIP Admire Rakti & Araldo

Hows that Ocho. I had Protectionist in my list of 4 horses ? Go back and check.

I apologise UB. You did pick it as one of four however you removed it from the trifecta system.

I was probably referring to SB's system when I was saying back to the drawing board.

MG's trifecta system got the tri but it cost $4.048K and won 1.9K.

Yeah I constantly try to get down to a just a few selections but always better to go a little wider in the cup for safety.

Yes, T.O. the method lost even though it had the trifecta.

It loses most years but every so often there's a fantastic result. For example, when Vintage Crop won (so did the method) the trifecta paid $60,000. There's also been other good years.
And if the win section of the trifecta had been bet to Win on Betfair to collect $100 then the profit would be outstanding, with only one losing year. That was when Bart Cummings had his last winner (I can't remember the name of the horse...was it Viewed?).

Whilst on the subject of multis, here's another approach. Look at % change in Back price since the Open. The graph shows the plus or minus change in price for each runner. The first four placing's never had a plus/minus change in price above 15%. Debatable though, whether the payoff (positive) was as cost effective as simpler methods?

Think you might be a little harsh on Speedy's system here TO with regards your call to 'go back to the drawing board'. A couple of things I noted in the aftermath - follow up to the race, and in hindsight of course...

1. Speedy (or someone else else here?) did mention that 'the rules'will be broken one day - who or what guarantees they will stick 100% in perpetuity? Not sure there is such a system anywhere. For instance, 7yo's do win, just not as often?

2. Only ONE of the rules were broken in my book being No.days since last start= 24 (3-17d was the consensus I believe). Might be wrong bc I don't have my s/s in front of me just now.

3. Protectionist had one of the best if not the best jock in the world on top.

For these reasons, I had a saver bet on the nose which saved my bacon on the day. I also noted that one of Dom Bierne's favorite means of whitling them down had Protectionist in a short list of 4-5. NO need to go back to the drawing board here my good friend. It is STILL possible to pick the winner of the cup from a handful of chances I reckon.

That's my musings on the 2014 Melbourne Cup.. DONE and dusted!

Cheers LG

Michaelg, have you had a look at TAB ProBet? Haven't used it myself, but the free version claims to do dutching on exotics with flexi. It increases and decreases stakes on particular selections so that you have no losing combinations, but still allow you to have your big standouts. I'm guessing it works by automatically placing multiple flexi bets to get the right stake for each combo.

A few things to remember based on Speedy's elimination rules:

Protectionist was only excluded based on one rule as far as I can tell (hadn't won a group 2/3 race or placed in a group 1 race in a lead up race within aus). I see this as a very good rule but thought it would be the first to be broken given the number of internationals that continue to attend and not run good or any leadup races. Therefore I included protectionist as at least it did have A lead up run even if it didn't place.

Also to remember, who shot the barman and signoff were 2 of Speedy's 3 selections and they finished 3rd and 4th.

I'm still shocked that Red Cadeaux ran 2nd again and looked pretty comfortable when it hit the front too. Definitely think speedy's rules still work :)

Hi, FredTheMug. I'm not aware of TAB ProBet. It sounds very interesting but the only concern I've got is the word TAB...and also at the moment I'm into laying not backing. Is TAB ProBet connected to a TAB or an independent betting agency...I think it could be worthwhile investigating?

PS thanks for your input on this thread gentlemen and also for your kind words around whether I was checking the form guide upstairs or downstairs these days.

You are all FIRST CLASS in my book lads fwiw

Cheers LG

michaelg, TAB ProBet is direct to TAB VIC/NSW totes. Only mentioned it because of your trifecta flexi. You are right, not useful at all for laying.

Ratings, Tips, Opinions. What one hand gives, another takes away. I had one set of ratings that gave the winner as top rated. But it also gave Red Cadeaux last rank. The barman about sixth. Then if you play the what if game, where are you? The winner had the field split at the exact time he needed, jumped up a notch and ploughed home.

Protectionist only failed the last start within 17 days rule. The Grp requirements were more as a secondary set if I get too many selections. I don't know what I said about that last year but I didn't ever intend to make it a primary rule.
The 17 days rule was put in to make it easier to eliminate o/s horses having their first start this campaign. I don't like horses having a 24 day break before a 2 mile race and I'm happy to have the rule in next year.
Back to the drawing board after 1 failure in 7 years? Don't think so, Ocho. I was quite prepared for it to fail as I have been every year since 2008 and I've mentioned this each year that I've put the horses up.

You can turn this around and say that the winner, both horse and jockey were good enough to take advantage of the field splitting.
Also the good ones make their own luck in racing.
My selection had an open field wide enough for a herd of elephants and did nothing.

Thanks for putting your thoughts up again Speedy. A near miss this year but you are well ahead overall.

Onya, Rails.
If I'd told someone in 2008 my selection method would fare as well as it has they would have found it difficult to believe. I find it difficult to believe. It's a bolody 20+ horse race with a million variables when the gates crash back. The winner fell into an unusual category with a 24 day gap between runs. He is the only one in 7 years in my original groups that has had that form pattern.
I thought about whether to include him and decided against it as I will do next year if something similar arises.

I may have been a tad harsh there SB. Sorry about that Chief!

I was just hoping to have a good day for my mate's cup day syndicate but alas we did no good on the day at all and lost our shirts (but that's another story).

Your barman pick though got me the chocies with place bets parlays so I (myself) won on the day. Thanks.