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Hugely important weekend of overseas racing. Plenty of candidates are running across Europe and will determine whether they subsequently make the trip to Australia. Greg Carpenter will also be watching closely to ping them with penalties (in the interview linked above he particularly mentioned Il Paradiso as being difficult to handicap due to a lack of races).
The live nominations are causing a few problems with quarantine. It was reported today that Latrobe may be left out in the cold. Last year Lloyd Williams threatened not to bring him unless there was also space for his travel companion Master of Reality. This year he is one of the lower rated horses aiming for the second flight. Ratings of many of the horses may change due to this weekend's results though, just to throw more uncertainty into the mix. Werribee's quarantine facility has space for 32 horses in the first shipment and just 8 in the second. Those on the first shipment (arriving September 28th and able to race from October 12th) have just gone into quarantine in the UK for 2 weeks. As can be seen in the races below, there are far more nominated horses vying in races this weekend than can fit in those 8 remaining spaces. The second shipment go into quarantine in the UK on September 26th, arriving October 12th and able to race from October 26th (Cox Plate Day). Victorian Racing Officials are hanging on Aidan O'Brien determining which of the runners he's nominated he actually brings. There's even a possibility of a third flight being chartered to Sydney with horses being quarantined at Canterbury racecourse, able to race just 3 days before the Cup. Friday 3600m Magners Rose Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group 2) (British Champions Series) (3yo+) @ Doncaster Barsanti @ $26 is up against Stradivarius, Dee Ex Bee and Max Dynamite. Interesting that Dee Ex Bee couldn't nominate for the Melbourne Cup after bleeding in his last run but he's allowed to race again in the UK straight away... Saturday 2920m William Hill St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (3yo) @ Doncaster Il Paradiso @ $7 is third favourite behind Logician and Sir Dragonet. Also in the field are fellow Cup nominees Technician @ $15, Dashing Willoughby @ $17, and Western Australia @ $51. 2400m Paddy Power Betting Shop Stakes (Group 3) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown Stivers, Buckhurst, Mount Everest, and Norway are all in the running 2000m QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown Hunting Horn and Magic Wand are nominated in this non-qualifying race 2600m Irish Stallion Farms EBF "Petingo" Handicap (Premier Handicap) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown Eminence is in this non-qualifying race Sunday 2400m 135th Deutsches St Leger (Group 3) (3yo+) (Turf) @ Dortmund Ispolini is the only Cup contender who nominated for this race but is also in the field for the Irish St. Leger. You'd think he'd go there... 2400m Comer Group International Irish St. Leger (Group 1) (3yo+) @ Curragh Kew Gardens @ $3.25, Cross Counter @ $4.30, Southern France @ $6.50, Master of Reality @ $9, Latrobe $9, Ispolini @ $13, Twilight Payment @ $13, Western Australia @ $51 There very well may be even more runners in action. I just looked for qualifying races (2400m and above at Group level) and when a couple were scratched I checked what they were up to. |
Finally, for today: the first Order of Entry for the Melbourne Cup has been released. Subsequent lists will come out each Monday. Last year you'd find them on this page: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...ture-conditions, but it might be a matter of just keeping an eye on Racing Victoria's twitter: https://twitter.com/racinginsider
Order of Entry: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-september-12 Of the horses I posted on Tuesday that were weighted less than their official handicap indicated they should be:
YTPFBC = yet to pass first ballot clause So Il Paradiso and Dashing Willoughby look to have conditions that are pretty favourable if they were to come. Nakeeta at #48 last year looks to have been the lowest in the initial Order of Entry to get into the race without subsequently picking up a penalty or winning a ballot exemption. Avilius (Bart Cummings winner), Yucatan (+2.5kg Herbert Power), Runaway (+1.5kg Geelong Cup), and Prince of Arran (Lexus Stakes winner) were all initially lower but won their way into the final field. |
Eighteen horses have gone into 2 weeks of quarantine in the UK prior to departing for Australia (arriving on September 28th). Thirteen of those are nominated for the Melbourne Cup:
Already in quarantine and arriving on September 24th from Japan is:
Also from Japan and going into quarantine after this weekend (arriving October 1st) are:
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Local results for Melbourne Cup nominees:
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Results from overseas nominees:
3600m Magners Rose Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group 2) (British Champions Series) (3yo+) @ Doncaster https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drBjsssBgkU Stradivarius unsurprisingly won this race, jumping at $1.10 following the withdrawal of Dee Ex Bee due to the firm track. Cup nominee Barasanti at $11 was actually second favourite in what became a slowly run race due to small field of five. Finishing in 3rd was two-time Melbourne Cup placegetter, Max Dynamite. Barsanti ran towards the rear, looked to get the distance easily, but struggled to close ground on the three ahead of him. He crossed the line 6.75L behind Stradivarius, carrying 2kg less. Consequently it wasn't a terrible run, given their respective ratings and how the race was not run to suit a backmarker. I'm not sure he showed enough to warrant the journey here - forgetting for the moment that his rating would mean he was in doubt of fitting into Werribee in any case... 2920m William Hill St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (3yo) @ Doncaster https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAy70lZxwvk Another odds-on favourite took out this race with the undefeated Logician a very impressive $1.80 winner. Four Melbourne Cup nominees featured here - with them finishing in the final four positions in the 8-horse field. Western Australia, the $51 outsider, was sacrificed as pace maker for Aidan O'Brien's runners, hoping to shake the race up. The early speed helped Logician break the track record, now set at 3'00.27s, edging out Masked Marvel's 2011 performance (which in turn broke an 85 year-old mark). In that 2011 race the placegetters were Brown Panther and Sea Moon who would go on to place 8th and 13th in the 2013 Melbourne Cup respectively. Going into the race Logician had a 115 rating. This was only his fifth start and his first at Group 1 level. It'll be hard to judge the performance of the other runners until his official handicap is updated. I wouldn't be surprised if he went up to 118+. Of the Melbourne Cup nominees, Il Paradiso finished highest in 5th position, 5.25L adrift of the winner. He was also rated at 115 - the same as Logician - more or less solely due to his last race over 3270m where he was just 1.35L behind Stradivarius. He was looking great in this race at one point, taking the lead in the straight when his jockey pushed the button. Ultimately it looked like this move came far too early, with him weakening with plenty to go. It looked like he expected more fuel to be in the tank, so I'm not sure if Il Paradiso had a bad day, was impacted by leading the bunch that was tracking Western Australia or - optimistically thinking - he was run to not gain Greg Carpenter's attention. Ultimately he finished 3-4 lengths further back than one would have hoped, but he gets something like 7 lengths back in The Cup due to his favourable handicap. 2400m Paddy Power Betting Shop Stakes (Group 3) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown I couldn't find any vision so here's a blurb from Coolmore regarding Norway (1st), Buckhurst (2nd 1.25L) and Mount Everest (4th 1.75L): Quote:
2000m QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqdcNvXb1po Magic Wand and Hunting Horn contested this race which won't effect their current ranking or attract any penalties: a good thing too as they're currently at #21 and #22 in the Order. Hunting Horn was the sacrificial pacemaker and finished as badly as his $67 odds would suggest. Magic Wand's $21 price didn't suggest he would be at the pointy end but he finished in the front of a bunch that was chasing winner Magical, 2.25L ahead. This was a really good run. Magical has been running at a consistent 122 rating, chasing Enable for much of the past year. Magic Wand has a 111 rating and ran admirably here at equal weights. After the race her trainer Aidan O'Brien was looking abroad: "She can do the likes of Hong Kong and all those places. She loves fast ground and anywhere from a mile to a mile and a half. She's very versatile." That doesn't sound very encouraging for a Cup tilt, but earlier this month he also said: "She’s in the Cox Plate, the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup. I always thought 1m4f was far enough over here in Group 1s but, it’s funny, that type of race can often suit that type of horse. Flemington is a very flat track and you need a horse who is tactically quick enough. It’s a daft thing but it might just suit her". 2600m Irish Stallion Farms EBF "Petingo" Handicap (Premier Handicap) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown Eminence was second favourite in the 17-horse field, starting at $6 and finishing in 8th position and 4 lengths back in this non-qualifying race. Can't find vision but the race notes say: "Chased leaders, 3rd 5f out, ridden 2f out but no extra under pressure from over 1f out and gradually weakened". 2400m 135th Deutsches St Leger (Group 3) (3yo+) (Turf) @ Dortmund https://youtu.be/3LDDt8xDqoQ Ispolini is back on track after a poor run in his last, the Yorkshire Cup against Stradivarius and Southern France. He was towards the top of Melbourne Cup futures betting for a fair while on account of his 2nd to Cross Counter in the Dubai Gold Cup earlier this year. He was the odds-on favourite in the 13-strong Deutsches St Leger, winning in a very tight finish. He was 20th in the Order of Entry last week and his trainer Charlie Appleby appears buoyed by his run here: "Ispolini probably got to the front a bit too soon but he has stuck to his guns well. It was a pleasing performance and he has hopefully now booked his ticket to Australia for the Melbourne Cup." 2400m Comer Group International Irish St. Leger (Group 1) (3yo+) @ Curragh https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA Starting odds: Cross Counter @ $2.50, Kew Gardens @ $4.50, Southern France @ $10, Master of Reality @ $15, Latrobe $8, Twilight Payment @ $15 The winner was Search For A Song in only her 5th race. She was also weighed 5kg lighter than every other runner. When she took the lead and put on a couple of lengths at the mile marker she just couldn't be run down. Some strong rain before and during the race but it doesn't appear to have largely effected the surface: it was rated Good-to-Firm for this contest and only downgraded to Good in the next (it dried out and was back to a Good-to-Firm by the last race). Kew Gardens ran on for a 2.25L 2nd with the remaining Cup nominees finishing in the next few positions. Southern France, Cross Counter and Master of Reality all finished within 0.25L of each other (1.5 lengths behind Kew Gardens). Latrobe and Twilight Payment were within a further couple of lengths. There seems little hope of Kew Gardens travelling. According to Lloyd Williams there was very little between the other five candidates in the field though: "They finished within two [and a half] lengths of each other, and there is nothing between them in the future. The rides [they got] and the conditions [were] the difference," he said. "Southern France [was] a very good run, a positive [for his Cup chances]. Master of Reality did most of the work [in front] and was a good run. Twilight Payment needed the run and has changed stables. He hadn't started since June." "Latrobe was disappointing to the eye but not the jockey. Improvement is possible." Cross Counter didn't show the blazing finishing speed that attracted me to him last year. He's older and higher in the weights now. He'll certainly need a different change of tactics than those he used in last year's race... On the positive side he was 3-wide for a fair hunk of the race, which wouldn't have helped. |
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There's an interesting blog post from the British Handicapping Authority's Matthew Tester regarding the re-rating of Logician and the strength of this race: https://www.britishhorseracing.com/william-hill-st-leger-festival/. He also suggests that Logicians performance could have been as high as a 120, or that he ran as high as a 117 in spite of the conditions and race distance not being his preferred. Per the Race Conditions there's meant to be an updated Order of Entry sent out each Monday. That doesn't seem to have happened. Melbourne Cup nominees racing locally over the next few days:
The following Cup nominees trialled yesterday: BLUE BREEZE (NZ) BONDEIGER DIVANATION LADY YOUNG SUPERNOVA (GB) WALL OF FIRE (IRE) |
The nominees are getting whittled away:
Django Freeman - out for the spring with bone chips (was 10th in the Order of Entry) Meiner Wunsch - isn't coming from Japan after reviewing where they sat in the Order of Entry (yet to pass the first ballot clause and would be in the 60s unless they picked up a penalty). In addition to the nominees racing this weekend listed in the previous post, on Sunday there's also:
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Results from the past few days:
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walkermac,
I'm looking forward to the Melbourne cup analysis again this year as it gets closer to the final field. This thread always has the best analysis I can find anywhere. Thanks for all your hard work. |
Hey walkermac,
I second what UB has said. Whilst we may not often reply to this thread its usually because you have great information and there's nothing constructive I can really add. As the field get whittled down some more I may add some bits and pieces but so far I'm more than happy to take in the information as an onlooker. Appreciate your efforts! |
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I concur gentlemen. This thread is EXCEPTIONAL. Cheers LG |
Cheers, fellas :)
A new Order of Entry came out yesterday: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-september-23 (and was linked from Racing Victoria's Spring Feature Race Conditions page, so no need to stalk their Twitter: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...ture-conditions). Django Freedman is the only horse to have officially withdrawn so far, but more are on the way. Foremost of these is 2017 Cup placegetter Johannes Vermeer, who was also announced to be missing this Spring through injury. There was a little movement in the Order:
Finche similarly didn't gain a penalty for his win in the Kingston Town Stakes: being only 2000m, it wasn't an eligible race. No overseas runners gained a weight penalty either, which will buoy supporters of Il Paradiso, Ispolini and Magic Wand, among others. Horses of this ilk will have to enter quarantine on Thursday to make the second shipment of internationals. The first shipment is set to arrive this Saturday. Among them will be Gold Mount who recently had to process a name change with Racing Australia. He was still registered under his old name Primitivo. Caliburn is also now known as Te Akau Caliburn. His owners are confident that he'll be a strong candidate for the Cups next year but are having a throw at the stumps in 2019. He's anticipated to next run in the Bart Cummings for a ballot exemption. In major scratching news: Taylor Swift. Initially announced as Melbourne Cup Day entertainment, she soon withdrew citing a scheduling conflict. There was certainly some conflict in social media where she was part of a targeted campaign from both her fans with concerns over racing and gambling, as well as by animal rights activists. Racing Victoria have said they will refund any ticket purchases made expressly to see Swift. Sportsbet have a market for who will be announced as her replacement: the $3 favourite is Daryl Braithwaite with John Farnham ($4), Delta Goodrem ($5.50), Meat Loaf ($7), the winner of The Masked Singer Australia ($8.50) and Jimmy Barnes ($10) being the other frontrunners. In other entertainment news: Ride Like A Girl, the story of Michelle Payne's career and her win in the 2015 Melbourne Cup with 100-1 shot Prince of Penzance, will open in cinemas Thursday. If you do happen to go watch, check to see if your theatre is part of the My Cinema network (https://mycinema.com.au/locations-2/). They've a competition running where you can win $5000: https://fs2.formsite.com/MyCinema/r...girl/index.html Raheen House will have an Australian run ahead of the Melbourne Cup, per his trainer William Haggas. Plan A is the Caulfield Cup but, if he weren't able to make the final field, the Geelong Cup 4 days later is the backup. Raheen House was the $6 favourite in the Ebor Cup but could only manage a 9th placing 7L adrift of Mustajeer. Haggas says that he was lacking early pace which saw him running too far back. He also had concerns that the ground may have been too quick. First declarations are due next Tuesday on 1st October, after which I'll probably start on some horse profiles. |
It looks like the quarantine issue for those making the second shipment won't be determined until shortly before the plane takes off.
From Coolmore comes news that Il Paradiso, Hunting Horn and Magic Wand have entered quarantine BUT they'll use this 2-week quarantine period to determine if/how many of them will actually be coming. Rob Archibald, Coolmore's racing manager and nominations, said a decision could be left to within days of the flight out of Ireland. Also into quarantine is former Coolmore stayer Southern France who will be looked after by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace on arrival. Melbourne Cup nominees racing over the next few days:
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Results from Melbourne Cup nominees the past few days:
The number listed is as per the latest Order of Entry. First declarations are due on Tuesday. |
The first shipment of Europeans arrived this weekend, including Melbourne Cup nomineees:
Mirage Dancer9 Constantinople11 Mustajeer15 Red Verdon33 Raymond Tusk34 Gold Mount35 Torcedor42 Prince of Arran48 True Self53 Raheen House55 Red Galileo56 Haky71 Cape Of Good HopeYTPFBC On Tuesday, arriving from Japan are: Lys de Gracieux2 Mer De GlaceYTPFBC The second wave of internationals are in quarantine and set for arrival on October 12th: Cross Counter4 Marmelo6 Southern France8 Master Of Reality10 Il Paradiso12 Latrobe13 Ispolini18 Magic Wand20 Hunting Horn21 Twilight Payment22 Downdraft47 Norway74 That means that there is NO: Kew Gardens3 Dashing Willoghby23 Technician25 Buckhurst26 Morando28 Desert Skyline50 Barsanti72 Stivers76 Bin Battuta85 Western Australia89 Meiner WunschYTPFBC Mountain HunterYTPFBC EminenceYTPFBC Mount EverestYTPFBC South PacificYTPFBC |
Down to 79 horses following First Acceptances:
https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...1st-acceptances |
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There's actually 80 left after First Acceptances: The Good Fight was omitted in error. Updated First Acceptors list Updated Order of Entry |
walkermac, some of the ones i'll be taking a look at more closely soon include:
Steel Prince Southern France Constantinople Il Paradiso Ispolini Raymond Tusk They appear to be the ones that meet my early criteria the best, not sure if you've got any initial thoughts on those 6 runners. I'm thinking i'll start getting some futures bets on soon and make use of some odds boosts where I can as well. From memory usually a horse or two performs well in one of the leadup races and people get overly excited and sometimes crunch those odds in and they generally fall flat in the big race. I also noticed there seems to be a lot of horses this year that have run in the melbourne cup previously, which rarely end up winning it a second time around. |
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If the race were today and I had to make a snap decision I'd probably be most interested in Ispolini and Finche, then Master of Reality and Constantinople. But I'm prepared to throw them out entirely as I look deeper into each one as intended. So we have a little bit of crossover with our respective early fancies. I was very keen on Il Paradiso but find I have to keep making excuses: doubts on the strength of that Lonsdale Cup run (small field, half of them bled, Stradivarius said to only do "enough" for his wins), his unimpressive performance last race, not having won any blacktype... If all the positive presumptions you need to make are true, then he's a great chance for sure though. I think the Ebor is very good form this year: the prizemoney was increased so the field was stronger and it was run in very fast time, if memory serves. Raymond Tusk was thought to have had an unlucky run but also doesn't have a good head-to-head record against a lot of other Cup candidates currently at longer odds. Southern France would be challenging, especially given recent performances alongside Master of Reality and Cross Counter but I think is handicapped a kg or two heavier than ideal. Steel Prince I would like to see against some internationals to line up form with but, with 8 wins locally appears to be pretty well known by the handicapper and much of his success has been during the leaner months of the racing season. |
Here are the Melbourne Cup nominees racing across this long weekend. Most attention will be on the Bart Cummings where the winner will earn ballot exemption. Probably the most interesting race though is the Turnbull Stakes.
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Here's a bit of fun. It's time for a progressive look at "the system".
The first time I hosted one of these threads I included a few historical form factor factoids spread through different horse profiles. After the race was won and done, I went back and collected the form factors to see how they did. The Cup winner was the only one who satisfied all of the following:
The 'Within first 9 runners at the turn in last race' was omitted from last year's calculations; probably 'cause it was hard to determine for some runners and pretty useless for others, given that many of the fields comprised of 9 runners or less in any case! Last year 'the system' was used ahead of the race and it did pretty well. The first 4 were among the top 7 rated by the system and the winner was one of those in yellow. Now what's this yellow business? The horses with a yellow background in the image were those with a Conduit Mare Profile Stamina number of 17. Search for the 'Is Dosage Bunkum?' thread for the background, but essentially only 24% of Cup runners have this figure of 17 but they've won 10 of the past 11 races (missed in 2010). Now that's all out of the way, here's a progressive standing of where the nominees figure per 'the system'. Obviously this is going to change following further racing. I might update it once a week just to see how much movement there is.
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Surprise Baby has been penalised 1kg in the Melbourne Cup following his win in The Bart Cummings. This takes him from 52.5kg to 53.5kg.
Almandin received the same penalty in 2016. He was given an Official Handicap Rating of 99 following the 2016 Bart Cummings. In the Cup he carried 52kg (though he was originally given 51kg, the field shifted up 1kg so that the topweight was at least 57kg - the rule at the time). Surprise Baby now has a current Official Handicap Rating of 104 - only going up 1 rating point following his win. ...which says something about Saturday's opposition, I suppose. That accounts for the 5 rating point/2.5kg difference between what he's now set to carry vs what Almandin was supposed to carry in 2016. For comparison's sake, Almandin's Bart Cummings victory was in 2'37.47s (35.27s last 600m), lumping 55kg. Surprise Baby did it in 2'38.66s (35.18s) with 57kg; so about two lengths slower with the weight discrepancy taken into account. It was also the 10th race in both of their careers: for Almandin it was preceded by 4 Australian runs, in which his overseas handicap actually came down (so it wasn't like they had guessed his standard horribly wrong). Almandin would go on to win the 2016 Melbourne Cup, of course, just 0.1 lengths ahead of Heartbreak City, but 4.45 lengths ahead of 3rd. In that respect it seems a pretty sporting penalty for Surprise Baby, particularly given that he's already shown he can comfortably run 2 miles in his Adelaide Cup victory earlier this year. The problem is that Cross Counter, for example, has a 118 handicap and is also quite handy over 3200m. Assuming rough equivalence between British and Australian official ratings, there should be a 7kg difference between what Cross Counter carries (57.5kg) and Surprise Baby (now 53.5kg) does: there's only 4kg (or 8 lengths over 3200m, as Greg Carpenter has it). Even worse is Master of Reality, also with 118 from Irish Racing but only carrying 55.5kg. In that regard, Surprise Baby has had few favours when compared to some overseas raiders. Then again, the ratings get a little wibbly-wobbly over longer races, so it's all a matter of interpretation... Following his Bart Cummings win Surprise Baby was briefly the Cup favourite. At $9. Which was a huge overreaction... Presumably following his penalty he's now out to $13 and it's Finche that has moved into favouritism at $8. Both Finche and Surprise Baby were ranked highly per 'the system', which I posted ahead of Saturday's racing, so hopefully that prompted people to get on before their odds were slashed - if they were going to anyway. I stupidly tried to multi Surprise Baby in the Bart Cummings and Melbourne Cup futures. It's not in my pending bets so I presume that it wasn't accepted due to them being related events. I just didn't see it complain obviously enough about it at the time. |
Here's an updated Order of Entry: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...try-as-at-oct-7
And here's the weekend's results from Cup nominees:
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Not a whole lot changed with the order of horses per 'the system'.
Hush Writer stayed on 9 points but received a boost to his handicap. An 8th place finish doesn't sound too notable, but it was his first Group 1 race and he only finished 2 lengths behind the winner in The Metropolitan. His rating moved from 96 to 101. A similar story for Vow And Declare but the rise in his rating was even larger: from 85 to 100. Notable rating rises also went to Te Akau Caliburn (+4), Alfarris (+5), Looks Like Elvis (+4) and Attention Run (+12), though those are all well down the order. Rostopovich dropped down the table following what looked like a meh run in The Turnbull. The Stewards Report said he over raced early and was three wide. He held his ground at the end but did not run on. Kings Will Dream gained a point after his win in the same race. Neufbosc, Wolfe, Supernova and Fairlight also moved up to 8 points. But it's a different 8 points really... Wolfe and Supernova took out the placings in the Bart Cummings, gaining a point for finishing within 3 lengths of the winner. Fairlight gained a point for the same but his was via a 7th placing in a BM74. Neufbosc earned an extra point for starting at < $16; never mind that he finished 30 lengths behind! Ispolini, Finche and Surprise Baby are still on top with 10 points; the latter the only one to have a Conduit Mare Stamina figure of 17 (on the minus side: he's carrying too much weight). |
 Surprise Baby
5yo B/BR Gelding
Shocking (AUS) - Bula Baby (NZ) [By Kaapstad (NZ)]
10s: 5-1-1
Surprise Baby is the great local hope in the 2019 Melbourne Cup. Forgive for the moment that he is New Zealand-bred; that's close enough! The Europeans have had it too much their own way, lately. Though is that any wonder given the dire local programming of endurance races and the focus on breeding early-maturing sprinters in Australia?
New Zealand isn't quite as enamoured by the shorter races. Still though, his sire Shocking - the 2009 Melbourne Cup winner - stands at Rich Hill Stud in Waikato, NZ and his coverage fee is a comparatively paltry $NZ8500. A price that was actually dropped from $10,000 the year before! Bred to Bula Baby, who predominately raced over the mile to mile and a quarter - their progeny was so unappealing it was passed in at auction: twice.
Eventually his breeders listed him on gavelhorse.com, a site where you can buy a horse for as little as a few hundred dollars. Surprise Baby's sale price was $NZ5500. His current winnings are over $700,000.
Had he not sold, Rich Hill Stud would have run him themselves. They could be upset about it all (not to mention having also sold his dam in the meantime) but are doubtless feeling positive about Shocking become a more popular sire (he has several progeny for sale in the upcoming Ready To Run Sale in late November, which should be a fair indication of change in market sentiment).
Shocking has sired 153 runners thus far; of those there has only been one Group 1 winner: Fanatic, who narrowly won the 2016 New Zealand Oaks (a 3yo race over 2400m at Trentham). His progeny predominately contest 1200-2000m, though those who are tested at the Cup distance seem to do reasonably well: 6 individual runners share 3 wins and 2 places over 12 attempts.
One of these, of course, is Surprise Baby, who has already shown he can run the distance following his victory in the Adelaide Cup earlier this year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJb0KsO5_kE
While he impressively pulled away to win by two lengths (as a 72-rater in a Group 2 race), even his jockey stated that it "wasn't the strongest Adelaide Cup ever". Perhaps more should be made of the win though, considering that it was only his 6th start and he leapt 1200m further than his last, after he missed a lead-up run on account of being scratching due to barrier manners. In his favour for the Cup, he showed that he has a very nice turn of foot.
So: Adelaide Cup winner. Big deal, right? After all, the previous winners never seemed to go on to greatness, did they? (The 2018 winner was his "brother" Fanatic, in what turned out to be his final Australian race). What was different this year was that another Melbourne Cup ballot exemption race had been added to the calendar: the Andrew Ramsden.
Surprise Baby's target became this race. On the way he placed in a Flemington 2600m handicap, despite being severley inconvenienced by Belgravia, who was injured and sadly had to be euthanised. His final 800m was the fastest in the field but was left a little too much to do, finishing 0.4 lengths from the winner Steel Prince. There was a 6kg difference in the Prince's favour.
In the Andrew Ramsden, Surprise Baby and Steel Prince had a ding-dong battle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YsfrIGsXys. The result went to a photo with Steel Prince just taking the win and earning a ticket into the Melbourne Cup.
Surprise Baby spelled and returned over 1600m with a middling effort, before his win in the Bart Cummings: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P66NyCL9tEA, earning the Cup exemption that he had just missed out on earlier this year.
He again showed that he was likely to race midfield or worse before unleashing a fierce, sustained finishing burst. Encouragingly he did this despite being weighted higher than those he overhauled. The query is whether he will be able to do this against far higher standard competitors....
Surprise Baby's Dosage Profile is (1-14-19-0-0) with a DI of 2.58 and CD of 0.47. That would indicate his best is at around is at about 2200m.
His Conduit Mare Profile is (4-6-5-6-11) with Speed 10, Stamina 17 , Index of 0.58, and Triads (15-17-22) which seems to imply a little longer. The bulk of that profile is in the Professional category, after all, so perhaps around 2600-2800m is his best distance. That Stamina figure of 17 has seemed to be the magic number for Melbourne Cup winners the past few years, with 10 of the past 11 winners having the same. This year only 10 of the remaining candidates have such, and only 5 of those are in the top 24 per the current Order of Entry.
His win saw him briefly become the race favourite before a 1kg penalty was announced. He's now the second favourite, somewhere between $9.50 and $11.00, depending on the bookie.
I like this horse a lot. But I would feel far more confident were he carrying less than 53.5kg. The encouraging thing is that he's only 10 races into his career, so the handicapper might not quite have a bead on him yet. As it stands though, he has a 104 handicap rating and Master of Reality, for example, is rated at 118. They should be 7kg apart in the weights, but there's only a 2kg difference. 5 kilos/10 lengths is a whole lot of distance to make up given that the bulk of that is likely to occur in the final straight of a 3200m against hardened Group1 winners...
While things could certainly fall in his favour and he may take victory, I'm inclined to think that he'll be a Top 5 finisher and fall just short. This is the '17 Stamina' horse that should win but has been set a very difficult and weighty task. This might break the run.... |
Acceptances for this weekend's racing from Melbourne Cup nominees.
A few of the internationals will be marking their release from Quarantine with a run in the Herbert Power: Prince of Arran, Raheen House, Haky and True Self. Their Australian ratings differ from their British ones a little. Raheen House has a British handicap of 111 and an Aussie mark of 105. Prince of Arran has been given the same Aussie rating but is only 108 at home.
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Thanks for all the updates walkermac. I can't wait for the final system horses.
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 Steel Prince
5yo B Gelding
Nathaniel (IRE) - Steel Princess (IRE) [By Danehill (USA)]
20s: 8-5-1 Steel Prince is the other horse currently holding a ballot exemption for the 2019 Melbourne Cup. For the first time, this was on account of a win in May's Listed 2800m Andrew Ramsden. The internationalisation of The Cup has been a hot button topic in recent times and the addition of this race to those offering ballot exemption was largely to more easily provide a pathway for an Australian runner. A 'pathway for an Australian trainer' is perhaps more accurate. Steel Prince after all was bred and raced in Ireland. Locals buying interest in internationals on Cup-eve is the new trend, so give it a couple of years and the bulk of entrants in the Andrew Ramsden will likely be those very same looking for another chance. It's very much a short-term band-aid solution, when the actual answer is to provide a racing calendar that gives endurance horses a chance at a career. None of that should reflect on Steel Prince's win in the Andrew Ramsden, however. As noted in the Surprise Baby profile, it was a close and exciting battle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YsfrIGsXys. Steel Prince's win closed out a remarkable 5yo 2018/19 Season: 11 races comprising 7 wins and 4 seconds. His Australian career started at BM70 level (after winning his maiden in Ireland as part of a short non-descript career; including a loss in his debut to Homesman). Once he hit the 2400m distance he looked a real prospect though. He then got caught up in the Darren Weir scandal and was part of a diaspora that saw him end up with Lee Freedman. This new partnership began with him stringing 5 wins together, including the Andrew Ramsden, and a rise of 20 rating points. Surprise Baby was favourite in that race, following a narrow loss to Steel Prince earlier that month and a 6.5kg swing in his favour in the weights this time around. Though there was only 0.1L in it at the finish line, Surprise Baby ran nearly 4 lengths longer over the course, so Steel Prince could have been said to be lucky. I think it moreso says something about the competitor Steel Prince is; the Best Bets race comment has it that he "refused to lose". So Steel Prince was first into the Melbourne Cup; though it wasn't such a sure thing for quite some time. There were delays in awarding prizemoney for the race and rumours swirled that they had found something in the swabs taken. For a time Surprise Baby was best backed for the Cup, with the suspicion he was about to be elevated to Ramsden winner and take the ballot exemption. It turned out this was all for nought though, with the prizemoney finally coming through with no official concerns and Surprise Baby winning exemption through the Bart Cummings (though those who moved early would still be happy with the odds they got earlier on in the piece). The big advantage of winning the Ramsden was being able to plot your program to the Cup without having to stress about qualifying. This was particularly advantageous for Steel Prince as according to his trainer: "He's a European horse and the more you run them the more dour they get". The plan was his fourth run of this campaign to be the Melbourne Cup. With his next race this Saturday's Herbert Power Stakes it means he'll likely skip the Caulfield Cup, for which he still holds a nomination. This is his first Group 2 race and his first against such weighty opposition: and it will only get tougher as none of these are higher than 26 in the order of entry. Last year's 3rd placegetter Prince of Arran makes his return, as does Ebor Cup favourite Raheen House. Both of these also appear to have received some handicap favours, carrying 1.5-3kg less than their British Official Ratings would imply. Despite this Steel Prince is the $3.90 favourite. I find it hard to see him winning this Saturday, unless he improves lengths on what he's shown before. That's certainly not impossible given his trajectory but, given the top 6 are all weighted per their Melbourne Cup handicaps, if there isn't that improvement - or at least excuses - then it's hard to see him succeeding there either. On the positive side, he's another with the magic 17 Stamina figure. He's also one of the few that survived the genealogy filtering I do (looking at ancestors Conduit Indexes, GSV figures, Dosage and other nonsense). Only he and Southern France survived the process (with Cross Counter missing out on account of the weight he'll carry). His Dosage Profile is (3-6-21-8-0) with DI of 1.05 and CD of 0.11. This would imply that up to 3200m should be fine. His Conduit Mare Profile is (3-9-1-8-9), with Speed 12, Stamina 17 and Conduit Index of 0.59 and Triads of (13-18-18); say: 2400m is ideal? Currently at $26 in Futures betting and it seems fair for mine, that that would stay the same until race day, unless he shows marked improvement this weekend. I don't think he'll be among "the system's" top picks, having already won 8 career races, for one thing. If I were pressed to pick where he'll finish, I'd go midfield, give or take. |
 Marmelo
6yo B Horse
Duke Of Marmalade - Capriolla (GB) [by In The Wings (GB)] 22s: 7-8-1 I wanted to write another profile while I had some momentum; I have doubts that tomorrow's headliners Avilius and Homesman will go on to contest the Melbourne Cup, no others racing this weekend have made the final field yet, and I didn't want to waste my effort on a non-runner. So why not Marmelo?
In 2017 I wrote on Marmelo's profile: here's the horse that will win The Cup. I checked. I was only joshing though. I'd looked at some genealogical filters of past winners and Marmelo was the only one in the current field who fell within the bounds. The reason I was joking about it was because I believed it was all a bit silly.
In yesterday's profile I wrote that only Steel Prince and Southern France survived this year's genealogical filtering so, given that this stuff doesn't change from year-to-year, where was Marmelo this time around? Well, in turns out this stuff does change from year-to-year! pedigreequery.com now sources their Dosage data from an Australian consortium who use additional/different chefs. These figures put Marmelo just out of bounds (and likely many of the others from history on whom my filters were based); I might try and update it again later.
In 2017 Hugh Bowman went for home waaaay too early and Marmelo's run ended with 300m to go. Post-race his trainer thought that he may have been left flat by his run in the Caulfield Cup. Bowman certainly expected more in the tank and a look at Marmelo's stats seemed to bear the hypothesis out.
The following year they elected to go straight to the Cup without a lead-up run. This decision bore fruit when he was only overhauled by the far too lightly-weighted Cross Counter in the last 50m: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGUBQdYmiWY
The end result was perhaps even better than it looked: the Steward's Report recorded that he began awkwardly, tried to eat Avilius on leaving the gates and then finished up lame in his hind leg. He did get a pretty charmed run around the turn though, which saw him cut towards the inside and improve 8 places within 200m.
So what's changed this year? The Australian preparation surely hasn't. The intent is still to go straight into The Cup. His handicap has gone up 1kg though. Sort of. Hugh Bowman weighed 1kg over for last year's race, so his handicap is essentially unchanged. The northern hemisphere 4yos have been slugged an extra kilo this time, so given that he was beaten narrowly by the best of those last year and that the 3rd place horse (Prince of Arran) was 2 lengths further back: they'd be stoked, surely! The query is whether he's bringing the same form this year....
Per the Official French Ratings, he is: http://www.france-galop.com/en/hors...Xk4dW1uUitZdz09. His rating hasn't gone below 51.5 (i.e. 114) since the 2017 Melbourne Cup. The British ratings agree: 114 ahead of the 2018 Cup (a peak of 117 after it) and now back to 114.
One change this season is that he's had some shorter runs. Last year he didn't run below 2800m, this season he had 3 runs over 2400m. While his first showed an impressive finish (https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1117163356987764736), the next two 2400m performances were a little middling.
Back at 2800m and above he had two good runs. The first of these a nose behind Way To Paris at equal weights (and 4 lengths ahead of 3rd): https://youtu.be/JUYbtGgguiI. Way To Paris (115) would finish 2 lengths behind Waldgeist following this run, carrying the same, and Waldgeist (128) would next take out the Arc by 1.75L.
Another Prix Kergolay victory followed for Marmelo (https://youtu.be/e8Gd3hkddl4), narrowly finishing ahead of Call The Wind (115) who would split Holdthaisgreen (116) and Dee Ex Bee (119) in his next race at equal weights.
What a long-winded way to say that Marmelo does indeed seem to be going as well as he was last year, if not better.... And if that's the case he looks a very good chance of another top finish. |
Today's results from Cup nominees:
The Chosen One passes the first ballot clause and looks like he'll be around 42nd in the Order. If he gets a 1kg penalty then he'll be about 30th. I think it's quite plausible he'll get 1.5kg - which means he's as high as 23rd. Prince of Arran may be in the running for one also, they both put 3 lengths on the rest of the field.... The problem is that it wasn't a very strong field. Yucatan got a 2.5kg penalty for his Herbert Power win in 2018 with a smaller margin, but he eased down a lot and his race was still a second faster (both on Good 3). Racing Victoria will announce any penalties on Monday, along with a new Order of Entry. Second Acceptances are due at noon the day after. Steel Prince was a late scratching; per the Steward's Report: "Fractious in the barrier and kicked out. Underwent a veterinary examination and was found to be lame left hind and had sustained abrasions to the thigh". Will need a vet clearance ahead of his next race. When might that be? It was reported they wanted another run ahead of the Melbourne Cup. They haven't made the Caulfield Cup field. Would he heal in time for Wednesday's 2000m Coongy Cup? Other targets could be the Geelong Cup on the 23rd, or the Moonee Valley Cup on the 26th. |
A couple of less likely candidates are running today:
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The second wave of internationals arrived yesterday afternoon and are settled in for a 2 week stay in quarantine. They are able to run from October 26th (Cox Plate day):
Cross Counter3 Marmelo5 Southern France7 Master Of Reality9 Il Paradiso11 Latrobe12 Ispolini16 Magic Wand18 Hunting Horn19 Twilight Payment20 Downdraft38 No good result for today's Cup nominees running in the Cranbourne Cup. It was taken out by Dr Drill with nominees Looks Like Elvis finishing in 8th, one place ahead of his fellow Lord Fandango. It was reported that Steel Prince has sustained no long-term injury following x-rays after his scratching yesterday. As anticipated, his next race will either be the Geelong or Moonee Valley Cups. |
The Chosen One has received a measly 0.5kg penalty following his win in the Herbert Power Stakes. That seems to imply that, per the handicapper, only he and Prince of Arran are any good and the rest who participated in the race are rubbish.
As noted, the win meant he passed the first ballot clause and - with the extra 0.5kg - is now set to carry 52kg in the Cup, currently lying at 37th in the Order. The updated Order of Entry is available here: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-as-at-oct-14 Competing in Wednesday's Coongy Cup (which gives ballot exemption for the Caulfield Cup) are Melbourne Cup nominees: TOP OF THE RANGE64 WOLFE62 |
Here is an update of the standings in 'the system' following the weekend's racing. Pretty tight at the top!
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Some of these don't apply at the moment unless they don't race again:
< $16 in last Weighted lower <=3L in last FS in last >= 10 I assumed Weighted lower was weighted lower than last start. These 4 will make a huge difference when they all compete against each other in the standard lead up races. |
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I see that Prince of Arran's odds have come in on some sites and now also has a score of 10. |
Can't see it announced anywhere yet, but with my 1337 hacking skillz (i.e. typing a different date into the URL), here is the Order of Entry list following second acceptances: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-as-at-oct-15
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There's 64 remaining in the running for a Melbourne Cup berth. We say a sad farewell to:
Trap For Fools (formerly at #21) Torcedor (#34 - out for the Spring) Scarlet Dream (#43) Our Century (#51) Zacada (#54) Sweet Thomas (#55) Bondeiger (#58) King of Leogrance (#65) And also from those who were yet to pass the first ballot clause: Lord Fandango Fairlight Hang Man Just Thinkin' Looks Like Elvis Super Titus Te Akau Caliburn The Good Fight It was announced yesterday that Raymond Tusk was skipping the Caulfield Cup to focus on the Melbourne Cup. He was at 28th in the Order at the time, so I figured they were confident he was going to get a start after asking around and determining several were likely to drop out today. He's still only at 27th though with plenty of opportunity for others to leap him. It's a bit of a gamble... I'm sure a couple will drop out and have just paid the extra few thousand as insurance if something goes awry for them ahead of the Caulfield or Cox (like it did for Steel Prince last week). |
Quote:
I understand that if your in the top 15. But 27th is crazy and very likely to miss out. |
 Ispolini
4yo B Gelding
Dubawi (IRE) - Giants Play (USA) [By Giant's Causeway (USA)] 11s: 4-3-0
Ispolini has been sitting on top of 'the system' rankings and will still be there come raceday, given that he's not expected to have a lead-up run ahead of The Cup. There's actually some sub-sorting of those horses on equal scores that has heretofore gone unmentioned. Those with a weight advantage are listed foremost. Cross Counter has a 118 handicap from the British Horseracing Authority and Ispolini has 115. That means that the latter should carry 1.5kg less than the former. Instead Ispolini carries 55kg to Cross Counter's 57.5kg. 6 horses of the current top-24 have a weight advantage (with respect to Cross Counter) and only Master of Reality (-2kg) and Il Paradiso (-1.5kg) fare better than Ispolini does. A more direct comparison between Ispolini and his stablemate Cross Counter can be made: they faced each other in Cross Counter's first race following his 2018 Melbourne Cup victory: the Dubai World Cup. Held over 3200m the two were at level weights with Ispolini finishing just 1.25L behind: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxryP4DxT-Q&t=1s. Also in the race was Gold Mount (8.25L back), Red Galileo (31L back); and Prince of Arran (31.25L back) - each carrying 2.5kg extra. Ispolini now has a 2.5kg swing in his favour in the Melbourne Cup. I've said that unlike previous years I've struggled to identify a run that got me excited. Maybe it's this one by Ispolini, his race prior: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tf0mhcEXq7Y. He beats 2nd - Red Galileo again - by over 10 lengths. It's still over a second outside of the track record (by Almoonqith) but he does it very easily. Less impressive was his return to England following his UAE campaign, the Yorkshire Cup Stakes: https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1129387744101314561. He's well-beaten by Stradivarius (fair enough) but also Southern France - and the latter gets a further 2kg in his favour in the Melbourne Cup. Was Ispolini's performance here too bad to be true? It was a big drop from what was shown in Meydan and he was sent for a spell afterwards, so perhaps. The Racing Post has it that the race was 5secs slower than par, so he might not have been suited by the race shape either. He most recently resumed in Dortmund at the Deutsches St Leger, taking out the win but not putting paid to his competition. The rest of the first 4 were rated at 107 going into the race (2nd placegetter Djukon carried 4kg less, in his second career start, otherwise they were at equal weights). It looks to be on a par with his Yorkshire Cup Stakes performance. Instead of asking what went wrong there, it might be better to ask what went right in Meydan? Over there he was 2 wins and 2 seconds from 4 starts. His remaining two career wins were his maiden (on All-Weather for a purse under $10k) and what looks a middling performance in Dortmund. With such inconsistency it would have been very helpful to see him have a run in Australia ahead of the big dance.... His Dosage Profile is (2-16-13-10-1) with Points Across The Board. His DI is 1.4 and Cd is 0.19. This would suggest a most suited distance of around 3000m. His Conduit Mare Profile is very symmetrical: (7-7-4-7-7) with Speed and Stamina both 14, a Conduit Index of 1 and Triads (18-18-18). This is very atypical for a Melbourne Cup runner, just over 5.5% of those this century have a Speed figure greater than or equal to their Stamina figure. The best finisher of these was Criterion (3rd in 2015), then Big Duke (4th in 2017). 2015 was a sit and sprint/demolition derby and one could argue that there are few conclusions that can be drawn from it. And Big Duke was a freakish outlier compared to the others of this group as his Stamina points mostly came from the Professional category: he had 11 whereas the next highest had 6. Also having a huge points total in the Professional category (11) was Rekindling. He was the winner with the lowest gap between Speed (16) and Stamina (18) so far this century. One could argue his victory also had a lot to do with him receiving a handicap that was too friendly. I liked Ispolini going into this profile but now I'm not so sure. I certainly don't like his Conduit Mare figures. I also think he would have been better suited by a local run or two. If he brings his Meydan form he's certainly not without hope, but it seems likelier that he'll be 5-7 lengths or so off the pace, given his last couple of runs. Horses have finished 3rd through 17th within that range, so it depends on your faith in 'the system' as to where you think he'll end up. |
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