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Latest Order of Entry: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...p-2nd-acc-oct-4.
Grand Promenade up alongside Realm Of Flowers as exempt from the ballot. Angel Of Truth on the bubble. |
Cup nominees racing in Australia on Saturday:
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Results from Cup nominees over the weekend:
Hasta La War passes the first ballot clause but remains near the bottom of all candidates. Note sure that Delphi will earn a 0.5kg penalty after his Herbert Power win. He carried 2kg less than The Chosen One and beat him by one length on Saturday. Per the Melbourne Cup weights they're currently 1.5kg different - so the penalty is already there, sort of. The prizemoney gets Delphi to around 35th in the Order and the win earns exemption for this week's Caulfield Cup. |
Third declarations were due yesterday and 20 more horses are out of the running:
Here is the current Order of Entry: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...3570b7e5bb.ashx Knights Order is on the bubble in 24th, though has less than $3k of eligibly prizemoney from King of Leogrance. None of the candidates who are yet to pass the first ballot clause can jump ahead (unless they win more than $380k and: in the case of Amade he gets a 0.5kg penalty; or, in the case of Defibrillate, a 1.0kg penalty). Everyone else must be hoping for either massive dropouts or ballot exemption. A 2.5kg-3kg penalty would seem quite unlikely... Here are today's Cup nominees racing:
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Wednesday's Results:
Cup nominees racing the next few days:
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Realm Of Flowers, the ballot exempt Andrew Ramsden winner, is out for the remainder of Spring. Caught an illness and will be spelled.
King of Leogrance is now in spot #24 of the order. |
Here are last weekend's results:
Incentivise was stunningly good in the Caulfield Cup and earned a 1.5kg penalty. He is now the $2.50 Cup favourite. Next in the betting is Spanish Mission at $6.00, then both Grand Promenade and Twilight Payment at $13. The Order of Entry, as of today, is here: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...c036d278cd.ashx. Withdrawing over the weekend were Duais, Quick Thinker, Realm Of Flowers and Sir Dragonet (who was sadly euthanised following a track accident). Here are the Cup nominees participating in the Geelong Cup:
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Results from Wednesday's Geelong Cup:
Amade would have liked to have finished a length further ahead... Would have passed the first ballot clause and be up in 27th spot now. Is nominated for Bendigo next week; will have to do well and still hope for some dropouts. Will also be having 3 runs in 2 weeks, if he were to make the Melbourne Cup start-line. Here are this weekend's contending Cup nominees:
Dawn Patrol, King of Leogrance and Montefilia all withdrew from the Cup during the week. I'll put the preliminary "the system" results up after this weekend's racing. |
Here are this weekend's results of Cup nominees:
Floating Artist passed the first ballot clause and is up to 38th in the Order of Entry. Fourth Declarations are due tomorrow, so I may wait until they're out before doing "the system" scoring. |
Looking forward to it walkermac.
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And then there were 34....
Third acceptances were out today. Giving up on their 2021 Melbourne Cup dreams were:
Here is the current Order of Entry: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...81ddcfdb3d.ashx Sir Lucan is in the #24 spot. 7 horses are yet to pass the first ballot clause, several of them are in Wednesday's Bendigo Cup
If Amade finishes Top 3 in the race then he'll jump up into some place between 19th and 21st. The others will need to earn either a penalty or hope for some dropouts, so Constantinople may instead opt for Saturday's Hotham Stakes (which can give the winner a ballot exemption to the Cup). Tooradin didn't nominate. Forgot You is taking a bit of a different route as a 3yo, going via the Victoria Derby qualifying option. |
Here are the results of "the system". Back in my first Melbourne Cup thread I wrote a profile on several contenders, for most I included a form factor angle that I had encountered in my research and how that particular horse fared. After the race was run and done, I tallied up how all the runners scored on each of these form factors and the winner happened to be the only horse with the highest possible score.
For the next year or two the winner was found on the top two "rungs" of the scoring ladder, I believe. The last two renewals it hasn't done as well, most likely because of the pace the races were contested: Vow And Declare won a sit and sprint in 2019 and then last year, the front-running Twilight Payment was allowed to win when none of the other jockeys were brave enough to make a move. If there are any marked changes after the weekend's racing I'll post it again then. Otherwise I'll wait 'til the morning of to account for the odds.
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Walkermac,
Ive been waiting to see this list. Thanks for putting it together. |
UB but does the MC have any interest in your type of "investing"?
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The field's been decimated the last couple of days, starting with some unwelcome results at the Bendigo Cup yesterday:
Away He Goes and Hasta La War have also both dropped out. Leaving 30 hopefuls chasing those 24 spots. Great House is in 24th spot and the final horse to have passed the ballot clause so far is Floating Artist in 25th. They will be leapfrogged by the winner of the Hotham. Win and they're in. The others nominated for it won't make the field even if they place, unless there are 3 or more drop-outs. Nominating for that are:
Forgot You is trying to qualify via the Victoria Derby. He'll jump ahead of Great Horse and Floating Artist, but will in turn be jumped ahead of by the Hotham winner; so will need another to drop out (or get a 1.5kg penalty). |
Today's Cup nominee results:
Here's "the system" final tally (not withstanding odds movements over the coming days):
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I've mentioned this Cup System over the last few years and it's picked a couple (though missed last renewal). It's "Aspro's Melbourne Cup System", presumably soon to be posted by Racing & Sports:
Rule 1 - List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup Incentivise, Persan Rule 2 - List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup Floating Artist, Pondus Rule 3 - List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run Twilight Payment Rule 4 - List the Lexus Stakes winner Great House Rule 5 - Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run. Goodbye: Persan Rule 6 - Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older. Goodbye: Twilight Payment So per this system, the winner comes from: Incentivise, Floating Artist, Pondus and Great House. Note also that it doesn't account for debuting foreign runners, which was considered a bit of a negative thing for a while, but is well and truly not as great an issue now. So perhaps nowadays Aspro would throw Spanish Mission and Sir Lucan into consideration also. Interesting that 4 of these 6 candidates are on the top two rungs of "the system" ladder (and that only one of them is under $21 - while also being the only one in the field to have not won a black type race). In any case, perhaps Floating Artist, Pondus, Great House and Sir Lucan are worth further consideration. Grand Promenade is on the top rung and misses out but I'm not too fussed to be honest. Back in 2018 I developed a theory that the Bart Cummings winner wouldn't finish top 5 unless the field in that race ran a sub-36s final 600m (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/sho...69&postcount=50). I think it was a historical indicator that the media were peddling at the time. Avilius had just won it in 36.27s and I predicted he'd finish worse than 5th, despite opening at $13 on the day. He came in 22nd. Surprise Baby won it in 2019 with a 35.18s last sectional and finished in 5th. Persan won it in 2020 with a 34.77s last sectional and also finished in 5th. Grand Promenade ran it in 37.58s. Some allowance perhaps for it being a Soft 5, but that's a fair deal slower. |
Here's the average distance each barrier travels (beyond the shortest distance travelled by a runner that year):
 That's the past four seasons of data (since they started wearing transponders). I posted the below in the 2018 thread regarding barriers and it seemed to work out somewhat the following two years as well: Since 2000: First <=B15: 83.33% >B15: 16.67% Top 2 <=B15: 83.33% >B15: 16.67% Top 3 <=B15: 81.48% >B15: 18.52% Top 4 <=B15: 81.94% >B15: 18.06% Were it random chance, going by the average field size over the past 18 editions (excluding those who didn't complete the race), it should be: <=B15: 66.17% >B15: 33.83% 5th position is where the outer barrier's results start to catch up to expectation. For those finishing exactly 5th, it's 50-50 whether they were drawn outside barrier 15 these past 18 years. 5th-7th: those in outside barriers are over-represented <=B15: 55.46% >B15: 44.44% 8th-14th: it seems to swing back <=B15: 72.22% >B15: 27.88% remainder: and back again <=B15: 56.41% >B15: 43.52% Does it go in the placings: good inside horses over-represented, then good outside horses over-represented, then dodgy inside horses over-represented, then dodgy outside horses over-represented? What kind of outside-drawn horses overcome their misfortune and finish top-4? The 3 winners within the sample were <= 52kg. 11 of the 13 top-4 finishers were also <= $21 despite their draw. Of the 140 finishers drawn outside barrier 15, the <= $21 rule eliminates 99 candidates and misses 1 second and 1 third (Jakkalberry and Red Cadeaux). Weight <= 54kg elimates a further 12 for no further top-4 misses. The above might help with some borderline First-4 selections after the barrier draw... It also doesn't recommend Incentivise or Verry Elleegant. Grand Promenade is the only starter in barrier 15 or wider who satisfies the above for a Top 4 finish at this stage - and I ruled him out last post! (NB - Sir Lucan may also satisfy the conditions if his odds come in from $23 to $21). |
Quote:
It will have a bet on some horses but its just 1 race. There will be a lot of dumb money so it can be a profitable race though. |
the barrier draw has really changed my thoughts on the race so really happy to see your barrier stats post as it confirms what I was thinking.
Barriers matter in a race with 24 horses especially when you get up past the 15+ barrier. I think I would be looking at the horses in the top 3 levels of your ratings (7-9 points) as the winner is mor than likely to come from there. Pondus seems to be underrated by the public so he would be my early thought for some value. |
No Conduit Mare stuff this year :( I used to get them from pedigreequery but my membership has lapsed and they don't mention conduit mares anywhere nor have them appear on the example chart anymore, so didn't bother renewing. I tried to do a couple manually but too many mares were missing.
So to replace the "magic 17" number, I present: each runner's Physical biorhythm percentage. The higher the number the better. It's supposed to be for humans, but why not 'not work' for all species?
Obviously the biorhythm figure is pseudoscience - unless it works. And you can say much the same regarding dosage, as well. If you were an adherent though, you'd be looking for:
I think I might have a 50c E/W bet on him. I wager that the bookmaker that has seemingly blocked my IP address will regret their decision now... Wasn't even scraping data from them! What's with that?! Delphi's odds have come in and would go up a ladder rung. Note, however, that Pondus may extend the ladder higher and become the only one to score a perfect 10 in 'the system'. His odds are currently $26 at Ladbrokes (which I can still look at) but were at $21 briefly. Both Delphi and Future Score are being examined tomorrow after exhibiting signs of lameness this morning. Here are my picks: 1st - Floating Artist 2nd - Pondus 3rd - Sir Lucan 4th - Spanish Mission If I can wrangle a bonus bet I'll probably put it on Incentivise, to give you some idea of the confidence I have in the above! LOL |
All of the below is in no particular order.
These are the ones I have as a chance to win: Incentivise Floating Artist Pondus Spanish Mission Twighlight Payment The Chosen One Grande Promenade Sir Lucan Explosive Jack Delphi Great House Trale Rose Persan These are the 3 I ended up with after some hard decisions: Floating Artist Trale Rose Incentivise |
Evening chaps.
My best 4 as follows: Great House Delphi Tralee Rose Twightlight Payment Best of luck ! Cheers LG PS exceptional analysis as always Walkermac |
As always this is the best cup form analysis around, ty Walkermac i will be making my selections based around your good work.
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Some people had tipped that Verry Elleegant's lead-up performances weren't those of a horse a little short of her best, but those of horse targeted at The Cup. ...I wasn't one of those people, but well done to them!
Here's the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CJ50vyHHzg
My fancy, Floating Artist, was unlucky to miss a place: Incentivise got in his way a few times in the straight. The trifecta was just three of the four topweights: pretty easy to pick! :P |
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