Thought Mercerdario had every chance and was well beaten. What did I miss?

tally after 3 weeks:
12 bets
5 wins
returns= 16.8 units
POT 40%

a couple of very unlucky 2nd's as well.

osulldj, were you on Changing Lanes?

Umrum, what happened to Dead Eye Dick? have you heard any excuses?

Looking at the stewards report, no excuses for Dead Eye Dick, partypooper. Dream rails run last start, but not this time around.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-12-22 17:15 ]

Chopping block tips for sat:

PR2-1 Covertly

PR3-3 Lionheart

PR8-2 Constantinople


Sandgroper, Re: Dead Eye Dick, yes I agree about the previous rails run, but still I think it was a tad unlucky last week, I like the look of him again today, but just can't split it and Krapats so have decided to skip the race.

Hi Partypooper,

Just had a look at the market prices. In the consensus that Educated Money can't run 1200m? At $7 fixed odds and better on the tote I would be happy to put it ahead of Lion Heart.

It showed a nice sprint last start and that might be the go again today. I'll now view the race with interest.

Most of us have formulated a means of selecting our fancies, whether it be by hunches or a complicated computerised selection system.

The end result is that we have selections to bet on that we have spent "minutes or hours" doing the hard yards.

The hard part is turning a constant profit on those selections.

It has taken me years and a lot of losses to realise that each bet must be made from a fixed bank and must be made to make a fixed minimum profit on that bet.

By not having a bank you cannot control your losses.

By not taking a fixed minimum profit one can accept too short of odds for the risk of the bet.

Hate to say it, but Target betting is just another form of chasing losses. Think about it.

Cheers.

On 2003-12-27 19:12, GeneralGym wrote:
By not taking a fixed minimum profit one can accept too short of odds for the risk of the bet.

Hello GG,

short odds are short odds regardless of whether you're betting a fixed amount or betting to make a fixed profit. In fact, if you're betting a set takeout or profit, then short odds are even less value, as you'll be risking far more than you should.

Cheers,
Chris.

Hi Chris,
For the first time in my life I am betting short odds, and I have never been as CONSTANTLY succesfull in my life.

I've always chased the big scores but the good days were always brought back to earth by the bad ones and I hated the mental strain of the bad ones.

As you are probabilly aware I am doing this full time. If I don't win the mortgage don't get paid and the kids don't get fead.

I have been working out a place system for quite a while now and put it into practise 11 days ago.

At this stage 11 winning days.

I'm betting $200 to take out $400 to $500 a day. When I get that I stop. Usually maximum 6 bets. Today 3bets 1.9 1.7 1.7 .

My point though even if my bet was $500 to take out $400 for the day what's the difference as long as it is a winning day.

The P O T is reduced but the profit is still there.


Cheers

Kenchar

"Hate to say it, but Target betting is just another form of chasing losses. Think about it."

I'm not target betting, I don't accept odds less that an acceptable amount as I beleive that all bets are placed with the same risk whether thay are on the odds on favourate or a longer shot.

Its all about your strike rate, If its one winning collect in in five then you need to accept longer odds to turn a profit, a better strike rate then less odds are acceptable, as for win bets at odds on.......not for me I'm afraid

The idea of the fixed bank to work from is to control the betting amounts and by doing this there is always enough for the next bet.
Its a matter of what $$$ value units one is comfortable of betting in and whether you are doing it as a hobby or serious.

Me I'm a hobby person who enjoys betting for a profit

Hi GG,

Sorry, but perhaps you meant 'must only except fixed minimum odds on a bet' rather than '...must make a fixed minimum profit on that bet' ? The former is a wise move but the latter an impossibility. No TAB or Bookie offers 'fixed profit' or 'constant profit' per bet. If only that was possible !!

What you have said about a bank however, is only too true.

Cheers.

Hi Kenchar,

Congrats on your systems... I think I'm still a little bit away from where you are, but hopefully not too far....

The point I was trying to make (albeit badly) was that betting a fixed takeout doesn't change the odds or the risk. GG's implication (or at least the way I read it) was that betting a fixed takeout somehow changed the odds / risk situation.

I suppose it also depends upon your definition of risk. To me, "risk" has nothing to do with the amount that I'm placing on a particular bet.

Cheers,
Chris.

Congrats from me too, Kenchar.

The hard part, from my perspective, of what you are doing is the discipline of stopping when you have reached your goal (or your stop point if losing). Everything I read about gambling seems to indicate that those who make a living from it are very limited in their number of bets --- and very disciplined in their betting. No tips, no hunches, no saying "Wow, I'm having a good day, therefore... and so on".

If you have that sort of discipline, I agree it is not too diffficult to get a few placings on any given day, and you have made your money !!

CRASH
Thanks for reinterpurting what I was trying to say. Each of us will have acceptable minimum odds that we are prepared to take.

STEBBO
"The point I was trying to make (albeit badly) was that betting a fixed takeout doesn't change the odds or the risk. GG's implication (or at least the way I read it) was that betting a fixed takeout somehow changed the odds / risk situation."

I'm definatly not implying that.
The odds about a horse only makes for a rosier result (should it be a winning bet) as the risk is the same whether the horse is the odds on pop or 100/1+. However we all know that favourates win a far greater percentage of races than 100/1 outsiders.
Knowing which fav's are winners is another art.

GG

MERRIGUY

Thats the difference of betting serious to make a living and hobby betting to make a profit

Well I'm glad to see this thread has sparked some healthy discussions. I presume the short oddds about Covertly had something to do with it??? anyway the situation after 4 weeks is as follows:
15 bets
7 wins
Returns = 20.25 units
Profit 5.25 units
= 35% POT

Yesterday ALMOST 100% success with Lionheart only beaten short half head.

As always any feedback is welcome

On 2003-12-28 09:48, GeneralGym wrote:
STEBBO
"The point I was trying to make (albeit badly) was that betting a fixed takeout doesn't change the odds or the risk. GG's implication (or at least the way I read it) was that betting a fixed takeout somehow changed the odds / risk situation."

I'm definatly not implying that.
The odds about a horse only makes for a rosier result (should it be a winning bet) as the risk is the same whether the horse is the odds on pop or 100/1+.

Hello GG,

I'm curious as to how you define "risk" for this statement to be true????

Cheers,
Chris.

I was wondering about that too Chris but couldn't be bothered asking! 100/1 definitely has higher risk that even money (it's that old longshot bias thingy again!)

If I've rated a 100/1 shot higher in order than an even money conveyance, the even money conveyance would rate as a higher risk to me :wink:

Risk of the bet:
All bets once placed share the same risk factor whether 100/1 or odds on.

"Chances" of the bet being successful are obviously greater on the shorter priced runners than the 100/1.

"Risk" is not defined by the ability or chances of the animal but by numerous factors.
Injury during race, bad ride, held up, forced wide, poor start.......etc etc

GG

On 2003-12-29 07:35, becareful wrote:
I was wondering about that too Chris but couldn't be bothered asking! 100/1 definitely has higher risk that even money (it's that old longshot bias thingy again!)

Cripes Becareful...

please don't start that one again... :roll:

:smile:

gawd, talk about tangents!!!!

how do you factor in the randwick track.

neck ticklers for tomorrow.

PR1-1 Twice
PR2-8 Nemchinova
PR4-1 Lakeside Rhythm
PR5-2 Tribal Secret
PR8-12 Ginger Gem

Running Total b4 these 15 bets -7 wins, POT 35%

Thought this thread had died but I see that still heaps of hits so will post the results.
Not a fantastic day, the 2yo lost all chance at the start. But still 2 winners $3.50 and $3.10 from 5 bets so wish I could do that permanently eh? anyway tally so far after 5 weeks:
20 bets
9 winners (45%)
Returns = 26.5 units (ave. $2.94, top fluc.)
= POT of 34.25%

This is slightly down on my previous 6 months performace, but better than my OVERALL results, but I'm happy. as usual any comments welcome

Good onya partypooper :smile:

Just a couple of constructive comments, which may help:

1) 2YO and unraced a real 'no-no' bet race as far as I'm concerned

2) Amazed to see you include Twice in your selections, if the filter was any different for that selection over others, suggest you review - I had her rated equal third, well behind my top rated So Long Syd.

Good luck partypooper, looks like you're getting there.



_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-01-04 09:56 ]

Sandgroper, thanks for the feed back. Yes I was expecting the flak about the unraced TYO, what can I say.... much of my selection method is gut feeling, taking many other things as well of course including breeding, though I am far from an expert in any. But the outcome is that I can make a profit OVERALL, (although I was wrong in this instance) if I try to intoduce mechanical filters perse' I seem to miss a few losers but miss some good winners as well, I guess the bottom line is I still haven't quite perfected the art yet.
Re: Twice, yes it and So long Syd very close but taking the line through Head West had Twice on top, but of course extra 200m + 3rd run back from a spell,......... why didn't I see it? easy in retrospect isn't it? Well I'll keep trying!!

Hi partypooper, re Twice - think you may have fallen into a trap I experienced some years back - "mid-week" form on a "Saturday".

If you look closely at Twice's runs, you will see that most of her runs have been "mid-week".

Generally speaking, I have found that "mid-week" form equates to around at least 1 length below similar form on "Saturdays".

You really need to critically review form, of horses performing well "mid-week" that are now racing on a "Saturday". Of course there are exceptions, but generally speaking, "mid-week" form does not hold up as well, on a "Saturday".

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-01-04 20:32 ]

Hi partypooper. If you are serious about punting and truly base your selections on "gut feeling", give it away mate and put your money to better use, otherwise in the long run you will be just another stat.

Speaking of comparing midweeks to sat. When i did form when working for rails bookies in syd with T.Page and B.Mchugh wed form you deducted 3 kgs from what they carried compared to sat.

Same as going from some 3 kg apprentice to L.Dittman, bit of a difference.

Good move Jaffa, I like the simplicity. I use previous prize money raced for as a guide, but like the weight idea.

Hard to comment on your selections Partypooper as The West to me is ... the Wild West. Not for the faint hearted !!

Cheers.

Sandgroper, thanks again for your very constructive comments, and yes I the point perfectly about midweek form. I will now look at that very closely, thanks again.

El Gordo. I obviously used the word "gut" very loosly, what I meant was that, AFTER I have rated a selection on top using all of the known criteria, and IF I believe that some value (V the chance that I give it) will be available it becomes an investment only after it has passed the final hurdle, that is if I really believe it CAN win, so really I am saying MY JUDGEMENT rather than gut.
Also I AM making a profit over an extended period, and have posted my selections here IN ADVANCE for the last 5 weeks. I appreciate your feedback though and if there is any snippet that you are prepared to post that may help it would be greatly appreciated.

CRASH, I happen to know that you could teach me a hell of a lot about the game. I concentrated on WA racing because I believe that it shows consistency, (don't want to get in an argument about that though) also I pick up snippets here and there I know several strappers, and leased a couple of paddocks to a trainer. As you can see by the last 5 weeks results I can turn a profit, although I would be the first to say that one "Swallow" does not make a "Spring", but I've steadily improved over the last 12 months especially. Your comments about the sprints are well founded and I'm looking into that closely, though a quick scan showed that POT would not have been improved over the last 12 months, but that could easily be co-incidence.

Keep it coming guys, I'm learning all the time. PP

Partypooper,

Thanks for the compliment, but my advice anywhere on this forum is only tried and true passed on secondhand wisdom from punting Sages and keep in mind that racing to me has never been more than a serious hobby.

Might start having a look at Perth racing for interest and see how I go. I am sure there are only two tracks there so that has to be a handicapping advantage and I have also heard that one of them [ can't remember which one ] is probably the least biased track in Australia. Is that true ?

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-01-07 06:09 ]

Partypooper, you weren't far off with your rating of Twice. The problem for her was holding a career Peak out of the start before.
For those who factor time into their equations, the race before (won by Head West)
went over a second faster than the standard for that class, thereby pushing the ratings higher. If a horse can hold when it reaches it's peak, it means that horse has a base from which to kick to the next level, usually in it's next preperation.
If however you believe that the horse is doubtful to progress much beyond that class then the only place for her rating to go is down. This often happens at the next start and in fact also happened to Head West who couldn't hold his career peak finishing 8th in a class6 on new years day. Twice was definately a good risk, up in weight, distance and off a career peak, while the other main chance So Long Syd was on the rise. Also I doubt that the slow pace of the race helped Twice much. She preferrs a solid tempo.
The west IS a good place to concentrate your efforts on though. The tracks generally have less bias than the eastern states.
Cheers
Hope this helps

Just a useful note.

Generally speaking, when it comes to 'improvement' in a 'good' average horse over it's career, 5 lengths is about tops while 7 lengths [1 sec.] would be considered extraordinary.

Distance 1200m on a good track.

cheers.

Crash, yes only Ascot (main City track) and Belmont but 2 very different tracks. There is heaps of Country tracks of course.

I think the consistency here is partly due to the lack of bias as you say, but I fear that could start a big argument.

PICKLE, thanks for that, and yes thats probably one of my weak points time in general, and also determining when an animal has peaked and when it's had enough, i.e. I usually know the answer through my pocket.

I think both perth tracks favour frontrunners particularly ascot. But as stats suggest that is where most of the winners come from anyway.

cheers
umrum

only one investment this week.
PR6-3 Kame's Hope

all constructive comments welcome

I'll be backing

Main Stage
Moon Talk and
Tribula if they represent any value.
I feel Moon Talk will open to short. All up place may be the go.

Also National Silk is a good each way bet at $17 or similar

[ This Message was edited by: umrum on 2004-01-09 15:28 ]

WoW Umrum glad I twigged that one , cancell my previous post,..... my one and only investment will be PR5-2 Kame's Hope to beat Main Stage, otherwise if it is scratched then NO BET AT ALL FOR THE DAY!

Just goes to show the difference of opinion eh? well, let em run???

NB. Tribula was only a moscito's appendix away from being an investment, but there you go!! hee hee!