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-   -   Maiden Longshot System. (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=4216)

insidetube 26th February 2004 09:43 AM

Hi Testa
All these horses were in the market first up,so connection must have a good opinion of there horse,just going of todays and tommorrows tip's they have all ran in the top 5, all but 1 Te Rapa Boy 6th . well thought i would through my 2 cents in.
Hey Testa would love to catch up at wyong races 1 day.
The Tube

crash 26th February 2004 09:59 AM


$8.00 pre-post or starting price ?

Go-Long 26th February 2004 10:02 AM

under 10/1 starting price

TESTAROSSA 26th February 2004 10:20 AM

Quote:
On 2004-02-26 10:59, crash wrote:

$8.00 pre-post or starting price ?


Starting price.

Congratulations go to Insidetube and Go-Long, selections must have been 9-1 or less in their first lifetime start.

Insidetube,

Would be great to meet up at Wyong races one day, if you wanna send me an email penrith43@hotmail.com is where to send it.

Cheers.


crash 26th February 2004 11:04 AM


OK Testa,

We have:
1. Must be a maiden
2. 1st. or 2nd. up
3. 10 or less starts
4. 9/1 or less first career start
5. Must be $8 or more starting price
6. ???????
7. ???????

Two rules missing folks.

Cheers.

Go-Long 26th February 2004 01:07 PM

updating rules?
Must be running at same distance (1st up)
or within 200m.
Must have a 50%+ strike rate in top five.

puntz 26th February 2004 01:36 PM

HA !
won't fool me.

Bendigo race 2
No 1 paid 37.20 (NSW)

But guess what ?

What price did it open ?

Very nice win ,
THANK YOU VERY MUCH !

crash 26th February 2004 01:57 PM


Awesome fellow wasn't a qualifier [it paid $17 Vic. tab I think ]???

All tips have lost but R4/3 and R5/11 at Gosford are still goers.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-02-26 18:44 ]

puntz 26th February 2004 02:39 PM

Crash, no it was not a qualifier according to these rules, BUT,
it shows me alot of focus WAS on the rule selections, therefore it exposes what this one about.
May not happen again, but the oportunity was there


TESTAROSSA 26th February 2004 04:52 PM

Thursday Results:

Sorry fellas tough day today, although if you backed all runners regardless of price would have just lost.

Bendigo

R1 (2) Carlton Caper - UNP
R1 (8) Silent Street - UNP
R2 (2) Baudolino - UNP
R2 (4) English Oak - UNP
R2 (6) Mistanz - 3rd, (Under $8)
R3 (2) Classic Chevron - 1st, (Under $8)
R3 (11) Umbria - 2nd, (Under $8)

Gosford

R3 (6) Pompeii Dancer - 3rd, (Under $8)
R4 (3) Gipsy Magic - 1st, (Under $8)
R4 (7) Mrs Hogan - UNP, (Under $8)
R5 (11) Mechanical Fan - UNP
R5 (13) Smart Maxie - 1st, (Under $8)

Remember a bad day like this will be common when dealing with a longshot system!!!

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: TESTAROSSA on 2004-02-26 17:52 ]

TESTAROSSA 26th February 2004 04:54 PM

Quote:
On 2004-02-26 12:04, crash wrote:

OK Testa,

We have:
1. Must be a maiden
2. 1st. or 2nd. up
3. 10 or less starts
4. 9/1 or less first career start
5. Must be $8 or more starting price
6. ???????
7. ???????

Two rules missing folks.

Cheers.


Last 2 rules involve lengths beaten throughout racing career.

If everyone is sick of figuring them out i will tell the last 2 rules.

Cheers.

crash 26th February 2004 05:20 PM


Testa,

When Sports was publishing his great systems ,some people thought I was giving him a hard time [ far from it actually ]. Later in his thread I called him altruistic [ suffering an over generous heart ] for what he was doing.

Sportz eventually saw my point and realized that in this game, you are betting against other punters, not the TAB.

When I posted my last post, Gosford R4/3 was showing above $8 [$11 I think ] and it was the only bet I got on [payed in Vic. $6.70] as I wasn't going to be around to see the starting price.

Why did it drop in price ? Because there has been over 400 'views' today and it doesn't take a brain surgeon to work out what happened.

Many people view this forum to pick the bones out of it [ I recollect calling them ****************s, which upset a few contributors that the barb wasn't directed at ]. It would be great if the forum was restricted to the handful that actually contribute ].

For a long-shot system, how long will it take for it to be impossible to find a pick that is starting at $8 or more, tomorrow, or the day after ?

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-02-26 18:59 ]

kenchar 26th February 2004 05:52 PM

Crash,

It opened equal 5/1 2nd fav on fixed odds and came over sky it was being well backed, so if you think the price was anything to do with this thread then you are in ya ya land, UNLESS all the big punters at Gosford are getting their selections from this forum???????.

I would rather think their information was informed info.

Oh! just to make you happy I had a bad day, BUT that's not why I am posting this.

Cheers

crash 26th February 2004 06:10 PM


[ Yes, it's obvious why you are posting ]

Sorry to hear you had a bad day Kenchar .

Contrary to what you would like to believe, I am not mean spirited at all. You should take your vendetta elsewhere, as it really is tiresome, and probably not just to me.

If you keep following me around the forum snapping at my heals every chance you get, I'll do something about it you won't like
[ IT'S TIRESOME MATE ! ].

On IAS the price was above $11 [ not fixed ] when I placed my bet.

It doesn't take BIG punters to kill a price this time of week, just a lot of smallish ones !!

Cheers and better luck tomorrow.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-02-26 19:30 ]

kenchar 26th February 2004 06:28 PM

Crash,

Sorry I can't agree the tab price just adjusted itself to somewhere around it,s on course price which is the norm except for big longshots.

The only exception you will get to this is midweek Brisbane and Adelaide races ( mainly Brisbane) where their market % is so high you can get a large variation, but mainly in the bigger open fields which are very FLAT in the betting, and here You can find a horse $5 with the books and say $12 on the tab, BUT only if Sky doesn't mention the difference because if they do sure as hell the sheep will follow.

Cheers

I just noticed the additions to your last post, there is no vendetta as you call it, but as I posted a few months ago quite often I pick you up on a lot of of things, but never bothered posting back, now I am and it seems like you can't cop it.

You like giving it out though.

By the way the horse WAS TOP SELECTION ON QTAB RADIO PICKS, and do you realise how many people follow those.

Cheers again

[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-02-26 20:11 ]

crash 26th February 2004 07:38 PM


Sorry, my response allowance for you has just run out Kenchar [ you'll have to find your cheap thrills ealsewhere ].

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-02-26 20:39 ]

TESTAROSSA 26th February 2004 07:52 PM

These are the results since Sunday 8th February:

Wyong

R1 (9) Birubianice – UNP

Flemington

R3 (8) Teleprint - UNP

Sunshine Coast

R2 (17) Buck’s Secret – 1st, $34.20, $6.60
R2 (18) Monkeypicken – 4th

Gawler

R2 (9) Northgate Street - UNP
R3 (9) I’ll Have Fun – UNP
R3 (12) Len’s Gold – UNP

Kilmore

R3 (2) Clear Intent – 2nd, $3.40
R9 (5) Kenny’s Rainbow – UNP
R9 (8) Vice Admiral – UNP

Wagga Wagga

R3 (3) Plaudere – 2nd, $2.70
R3 (5) Captain Aubrey – 1st, $13.40, $3.50

Pinjarra

R2 (7) Dr Gee – UNP
R3 (9) Royal Risca – UNP

Warracknabeal

R3 (1) Bud’s Boy – UNP
R3 (4) Duel In The Sun – UNP

9/2/04

Hobart

R1 (1) I’m A Bandit – UNP

10/2/04

Seymour

R8 (5) James Blonde – UNP

11/2/04

Sale

R2 (7) Houston Calling – UNP
R2 (17) Oriana – 1st, $19.10, $4.50

Ipswich

R2 (2) Mates Rates – 2nd, $9.20

Balaklava

R2 (9) Bobbie Deegs – 1st, $12.80, $2.70
R2 (12) Oceanic Belle – UNP
R3 (5) Chigwidden – UNP
R3 (6) Hurricane City – 3rd, $2.10

12/2/04

Gosford

R6 (6) Hilly – 4th

Ballarat

R1 (8) Red Sceptre – UNP
R1 (13) Classic Chevron – 3rd, $2.00
R2 (6) Thorbey - UNP
R2 (8) Leeds United – 4th

Bunbury

R2 (12) Royal Showman – 1st, $9.60, $3.10

13/2/04

Eagle Farm

R2 (1) Tropiqualo – 2nd, $2.70
R2 (6) Craiglea Warrior – 4th
R3 (4) Odalisk – 3rd, $3.70

Horsham

R1 (12) Staresque - UNP

Goulburn

R3 (6) Spy Game – UNP

Walcha

R7 (5) Prince Of Time - UNP

14/2/04

Wangaratta

R3 (9) His Worship – UNP
R4 (2) Geiger Way - UNP

Gold Coast

R1 (1) Triple It Will – 4th
R1 (6) Cinque Bella Donna - UNP

Toowoomba

R7 (5) Great Drop - UNP
R7 (7) Reckless Jester - UNP

15/2/04

Kyneton

R1 (15) Honour Your Lady – 4th

Colac

R4 (10) Duchess Of Time – 3rd, $5.60.

Launceston

R2 (6) Grasjar – 3rd, $2.80

16/2/04

Taree

R1 (1) Madame Joy – 3rd, $1.80
R1 (3) Warrior Elf - UNP

17/2/04

Werribee

R1 (6) Lady Canny – 2nd, NPP
R2 (7) Charlie’s Legacy – UNP
R2 (10) Gone For Glory – UNP

Townsville.

R4 (6) Crystal Express – 3rd, $2.20


18/2/04.

Hawkesbury.

R1 (11) Jonoble – 1st, $10.20, $2.30

Mornington.

R2 (4) Onus – 4th.

Doomben.

R1 (8) Starzami – 1st, $10.20, $2.10

Strathalbyn.

R2 (4) Bella Futura – 4th
R2 (5) Disco Slacks – UNP
R7 (1) Edison –1st, $28.60, $6.40
R7 (6) Dendy Walk – UNP

Pinjarra.

R2 (9) Coded – 1st, $29.00, $5.80

19/2/04.

Canterbury.

R2 (6) One Small Step – UNP
R2 (12) Zamurd – UNP

Benalla.

R2 (6) Apples – UNP
R2 (8) Weeping Willow – UNP
R3 (5) Nina Belle – UNP
R3 (7) She’s Striking – 1st, $10.90, $3.10
R3 (12) La Speranza – UNP

20/2/04.

Yarra Glen.

R3 (1) Bobbafet – 2nd, $12.50

Rockhampton.

R5 (4) Pegunny Jake

Queanbeyan.

R1 (6) Roxbury Hall – UNP
R4 (8) Tract – UNP
R4 (12) Meddling Magpie - UNP

Quirindi,

R3 (6) Broc's River – 1st, $8.30, $3.00

21/2/04.

Geelong.

R3 (6) Longstone – UNP

Gold Coast.

R4 (4) Skinstad – UNP

Kembla Grange.

R4 (15) Blushing Maizy – 3rd, $11.10

22/2/04.

Kilmore.

R4 (4) Mr Balinchy – UNP
R9 (10) Little Darling – UNP

Penshurst.

R2 (2) Dreja – UNP

Port Lincoln.

R8 (8) Daring Echo – UNP

Sunshine Coast.

R3 (14) Moneypicken – UNP

Taree.

R3 (6) Slashers Creek – 3rd, $1.60
R5 (10) Sudan Silk - $2.70

Wyong.

R2 (4) Champony – UNP
R2 (8) Neurology – UNP
R2 (16) Kaoru Square – UNP
R5 (8) Mr Brisvegas – UNP
R5 (12) Hello Cyrstal – 3rd, $4.40

23/2/04.

Scone.

R2 (1) Brocanteur – 1st, $37.80, $5.20
R4 (3) Tsear – UNP

Kyneton.

R2 (5) Red Car Express – UNP
R2 (6) Vice Admiral – UNP

24/2/04.

Bathurst.

R1 (13) Star Of Fashion – 3rd, $3.50.

25/2/04.

Ipswich.

R4 (9) Petite Fraar - UNP
R4 (16) Real Live Woman - UNP
R5 (11) Oransay – 1st, $8.40, $2.50.

26/2/04

Bendigo

R1 (2) Carlton Caper – UNP
R1 (8) Silent Street - UNP
R2 (2) Baudolino - UNP
R2 (4) English Oak - UNP

Gosford

R5 (11) Mechanical Fan - UNP

Selections - 101
Winners - 13
Placings - 31
Win Return - $232.50
Profit - $131.50
P.O.T - 130%
Place Return - $124.80
Profit - $23.80
P.O.T - 23.5%
EW Return - $357.30
EW Profit - $155.30
EW P.O.T - 76.9%

Cheers.

sportznut 26th February 2004 08:04 PM

Testa,

I take it those results are based on getting at least $8 or no bet???

Shaun 26th February 2004 08:49 PM

Sportz...i have a system that i am testing at the moment that is a longshot system with a 12% strike rate and and ave divi of about $12 i have a minimum price of $8 i have found that going lower you do get more winners but you also get lots more selections that lose....the $8 rule cuts down your bets just like your price structure on your systems do

Mark 26th February 2004 09:44 PM

Yes, well over 400 views, but by the same half a dozen people, over & over. I don't think they all had enough on to affect the price.

puntz 26th February 2004 10:16 PM

40/60 staking rule I get
40 units win/60 units place
I done this very quickly and not checked for accuracy, but well in front.
Credit Testa, nice system
the copy and paste on this forum has me stuffed, but I think if one copy and past this in spreadsheet and do the formula it should work out ok
Longest loosing streak though was 10
cost profit
10000 6788



Paid win Paid plce Bet w Bet pl Cost Rtn w Rtn pl Net Streaks
R1 (9) Birubianice – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R3 (8) Teleprint - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R2 (17) Buck’s Secret – 1st, $34.20, $6.60 34.2 6.6 40 60 100 1368 396 1664 0
R2 (9) Northgate Street - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R2 (18) Monkeypicken – 4th 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R3 (9) I’ll Have Fun – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 3
R3 (12) Len’s Gold – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 4
R3 (2) Clear Intent – 2nd, $3.40 0 3.4 40 60 100 0 204 104 0
R9 (5) Kenny’s Rainbow – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R9 (8) Vice Admiral – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R3 (3) Plaudere – 2nd, $2.70 0 2.7 40 60 100 0 162 62 0
R3 (5) Captain Aubrey – 1st, $13.40, $3.50 13.4 3.5 40 60 100 536 210 646 0
R2 (7) Dr Gee – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R3 (9) Royal Risca – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R3 (1) Bud’s Boy – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 3
R3 (4) Duel In The Sun – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 4
R1 (1) I’m A Bandit – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 5
R8 (5) James Blonde – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 6
R2 (7) Houston Calling – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 7
R2 (17) Oriana – 1st, $19.10, $4.50 19.1 4.5 40 60 100 764 270 934 0
R2 (2) Mates Rates – 2nd, $9.20 0 9.2 40 60 100 0 552 452 0
R2 (9) Bobbie Deegs – 1st, $12.80, $2.70 12.8 2.7 40 60 100 512 162 574 0
R2 (12) Oceanic Belle – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R3 (5) Chigwidden – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R3 (6) Hurricane City – 3rd, $2.10 0 2.1 40 60 100 0 126 26 0
R6 (6) Hilly – 4th 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R1 (8) Red Sceptre – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R1 (13) Classic Chevron – 3rd, $2.00 0 2 40 60 100 0 120 20 0
R2 (6) Thorbey - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R2 (8) Leeds United – 4th 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R2 (12) Royal Showman – 1st, $9.60, $3.10 9.6 3.1 40 60 100 384 186 470 0
R2 (1) Tropiqualo – 2nd, $2.70 0 2.7 40 60 100 0 162 62 0
R2 (6) Craiglea Warrior – 4th 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R3 (4) Odalisk – 3rd, $3.70 0 3.7 40 60 100 0 222 122 0
R1 (12) Staresque - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R3 (6) Spy Game – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R7 (5) Prince Of Time - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 3
R3 (9) His Worship – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 4
R4 (2) Geiger Way - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 5
R1 (1) Triple It Will – 4th 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 6
R1 (6) Cinque Bella Donna - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 7
R7 (5) Great Drop - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 8
R7 (7) Reckless Jester - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 9
R1 (15) Honour Your Lady – 4th 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 10
R4 (10) Duchess Of Time – 3rd, $5.60. 0 5.6 40 60 100 0 336 236 0
R2 (6) Grasjar – 3rd, $2.80 0 2.8 40 60 100 0 168 68 0
R1 (1) Madame Joy – 3rd, $1.80 0 1.8 40 60 100 0 108 8 0
R1 (6) Lady Canny – 2nd, NPP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R2 (7) Charlie’s Legacy – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R2 (10) Gone For Glory – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 3
R4 (6) Crystal Express – 3rd, $2.20 0 2.2 40 60 100 0 132 32 0
R1 (11) Jonoble – 1st, $10.20, $2.30 10.2 2.3 40 60 100 408 138 446 0
R2 (4) Onus – 4th. 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R1 (8) Starzami – 1st, $10.20, $2.10 10.2 2.1 40 60 100 408 126 434 0
R2 (4) Bella Futura – 4th 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R2 (5) Disco Slacks – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R7 (1) Edison –1st, $28.60, $6.40 28.6 6.4 40 60 100 1144 384 1428 0
R7 (6) Dendy Walk – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R2 (9) Coded – 1st, $29.00, $5.80 29 5.8 40 60 100 1160 348 1408 0
R2 (6) One Small Step – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R2 (12) Zamurd – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R2 (6) Apples – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 3
R2 (8) Weeping Willow – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 4
R3 (5) Nina Belle – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 5
R3 (7) She’s Striking – 1st, $10.90, $3.10 10.9 3.1 40 60 100 436 186 522 0
R3 (12) La Speranza – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R3 (1) Bobbafet – 2nd, $12.50 0 12.5 40 60 100 0 750 650 0
R5 (4) Pegunny Jake 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R1 (6) Roxbury Hall – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R4 (8) Tract – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 3
R4 (12) Meddling Magpie - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 4
R3 (6) Broc's River – 1st, $8.30, $3.00 8.3 3 40 60 100 332 180 412 0
R3 (6) Longstone – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R4 (4) Skinstad – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R4 (15) Blushing Maizy – 3rd, $11.10 0 11.1 40 60 100 0 666 566 0
R4 (4) Mr Balinchy – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R9 (10) Little Darling – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R2 (2) Dreja – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 3
R8 (8) Daring Echo – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 4
R3 (14) Moneypicken – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 5
R3 (6) Slashers Creek – 3rd, $1.60 0 1.6 40 60 100 0 96 -4 0
R5 (10) Sudan Silk - $2.70 0 2.7 40 60 100 0 162 62 0
R2 (4) Champony – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R2 (8) Neurology – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R2 (16) Kaoru Square – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 3
R5 (8) Mr Brisvegas – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 4
R5 (12) Hello Cyrstal – 3rd, $4.40 0 4.4 40 60 100 0 264 164 0
R2 (1) Brocanteur – 1st, $37.80, $5.20 37.8 5.2 40 60 100 1512 312 1724 0
R4 (3) Tsear – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R2 (5) Red Car Express – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R2 (6) Vice Admiral – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 3
R1 (13) Star Of Fashion – 3rd, $3.50. 0 3.5 40 60 100 0 210 110 0
R4 (9) Petite Fraar - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R4 (16) Real Live Woman - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R5 (11) Oransay – 1st, $8.40, $2.50. 8.4 2.5 40 60 100 336 150 386 0
R1 (2) Carlton Caper – UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 1
R1 (8) Silent Street - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 2
R2 (2) Baudolino - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 3
R2 (4) English Oak - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 4
R5 (11) Mechanical Fan - UNP 0 0 40 60 100 0 0 -100 5
Selections - 101 10000 6788

crash 27th February 2004 01:03 AM



Nice work Puntz. Have you figured out the 2 missing rules ?

Mark,

I hope you are right, but the views went
through the roof yesterday. Only time will tell I guess.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-02-27 02:08 ]

puntz 27th February 2004 07:09 AM

Crash,
To be honest, no.
I use a much simpler method of selections
that utilizes the other 9/4 staking plan which sustains 11 consecutive losses @ 115 units.
Therefore not so savvy on what to look for cos I have stuck to one method of selection for years.
It works, it ain't broke so why fix-it !! ?
Just like the rule in the 9/4 staking plan say's
"Good for the not so long shot type selection system".

The 9/4 plan could be a bit risky with testa's selections cos there was a run of 10 outs.
One more loss and the 115 units would have vanished.
However, I'll do another calculation with the 9/4 staking method and see what happens when time permits.

crash 27th February 2004 08:16 AM


Puntz,

Ah, 40/60 !! Now I get where you were coming from in that other thread.

Your right about the outs and also it is worth remembering that only 4 winners accounted for most of the profit. Would have to keep getting those biggies to stay on top.

Still, this is a fascinating system of Test's, not that it has worked [so far], but why it has worked at all ? Hard to see any handicapping rhyme or reason to it [?].

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-02-27 09:23 ]

puntz 27th February 2004 08:26 AM

Crash,
This was a point I try to make.
OK, so we have testa's selection results, all posted for all to see. It was too easy to sit back, type in a spreadsheet,then look at the profit/loss sum, and easy to say, "yeah this will work"
But in the real world, if one is REALY on the 10th bet after 9 loses..do you think it's as easy as sitting behind a keyboard and due to "past results" it will win like in some utopia-matic..
I don't think so..emotions are one of the major, if not THE major hurdles to get by on the punt.


[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-02-27 11:17 ]

crash 27th February 2004 09:06 AM


Puntz,

I spotted the 60/40 typo and was correcting it about the time you were writing.

Yes, the good ol' real world can quickly become a scary place. I hope there was no gusto betting yesterday on the loosing streak. Today's betting will be very timid, yet the system might be on fire !!!

Cheers.



TESTAROSSA 27th February 2004 09:34 AM

Fridays Selections after scratchings:

Ararat

R2 (4) Sea Tern
R8 (3) Dream Luck
R8 (11) Just Leica

Doomben

R3 (5) Riotous
R3 (7) Templin

Grafton

R5 (3) Te Rapa Boy
R5 (11) Emanjaya

Penola

R2 (5) Avon’s Magic

Cheers.

TESTAROSSA 27th February 2004 09:44 AM

Quote:
On 2004-02-26 21:04, sportznut wrote:
Testa,

I take it those results are based on getting at least $8 or no bet???


Thats correct Sportz.

Quote:
On 2004-02-27 09:16, crash wrote:

Still, this is a fascinating system of Test's, not that it has worked [so far], but why it has worked at all ? Hard to see any handicapping rhyme or reason to it [?].


I believe there is a reason it has worked (so far) and that is that obviously if a selection started at 9-1 or better in its first lifetime start, it MIGHT have some ability.

That brings us to the 1st or 2nd up rule, which i believe gives the trainer a chance of producing the horse in much better shape then its 1st start, how often have we seen an average/good 2yo come out 1st up as a 3yo and become a very good 3yo+ horse.

The under 10 starts rule is pretty obvious, we don't want to be backing maidens who haven't won after that many chances, and the 8-1 or above starting price is obvious as well, don't want to be backing maidens that get to short.

Cheers.

Our Maizcay 27th February 2004 12:36 PM

Testa...

here again is my subset of your version. Yesterday there was 2 qualifiers without luck.. so here goes for today..

Our Maizcay's Testarossa Maidens Part One:
Penola: Race 2 #5 Avon's Magic
Grafton: Race 5 #3 Te Rapa Boy
Doomben: Race 3 #7 Templin
Ararat: Race 2 #4 Sea Tern
Ararat: Race 8 #11 Just Leica

Our Maizcay's Testarossa Maidens Part Two:
Penola: Race 2 #5 Avon's Magic
Grafton: Race 5 #3 Te Rapa Boy
Doomben: Race 3 #5 Riotous
Ararat: Race 8 #11 Just Leica

I'm a little late on these, but only one has run to date ... Sea Tern, but it didn't qualify as it was paying around $5.00.

Good Luck,

OM

sportznut 27th February 2004 12:44 PM

Templin definitely WON'T be $8 or better. The way they were talking about this one on Radiotab this morning, I think it'll probably be short priced favourite!

TESTAROSSA 27th February 2004 04:35 PM

Fridays Results:

Ararat

R2 (4) Sea Tern - UNP, (Under $8)
R8 (3) Dream Luck - UNP
R8 (11) Just Leica - UNP

Doomben

R3 (5) Riotous - UNP
R3 (7) Templin - 2nd, (Under $8)

Grafton

R5 (3) Te Rapa Boy 3rd, (Under $8)
R5 (11) Emanjaya - UNP

Penola

R2 (5) Avon’s Magic UNP, (Under $8)

Cheers.

TESTAROSSA 27th February 2004 04:36 PM

Saturdays Selections:

Cranbourne

R2 (10) The Queen’s English
R3 (2) Kingdom’s Century
R3 (13) Postcode

Gold Coast

R2 (5) Irish Band
R4 (10) Cinque Bella Donna

Newcastle

R1 (6) Salaam Dubai
R2 (2) Al Tharb
R2 (12) Atezzeta
R4 (3) Jireha
R4 (6) Reconnoitre

Toowoomba

R1 (2) Luke Tomahawk
R1 (11) Zellweger
R2 (7) La Special

Cheers.

TESTAROSSA 28th February 2004 10:10 AM

Saturday Selections after scratchings:

Cranbourne

R2 (10) The Queen’s English
R3 (2) Kingdom’s Century

Gold Coast

R2 (5) Irish Band

Newcastle

R1 (6) Salaam Dubai
R2 (2) Al Tharb
R4 (3) Jireha
R4 (6) Reconnoitre

Toowoomba

R1 (2) Luke Tomahawk
R1 (11) Zellweger
R2 (7) La Special

Cheers.

Our Maizcay 29th February 2004 12:10 AM

Testarossa,

I forgot to post my additional selections for your system today.

They were for Part A and Part B:

Irish Band
Kingdom's Century

Of course only Kingdom's Century was over the $8.00 mark, and paid $7.00 for the place on UniTAB.

As mentioned previously, there is only 1 simple rule for each subset.

For Part B the simple rule is: Finished less than 3 lengths from winner last start.

For Part A the simple rule is: for those with PPPro, the horse must be in the predicted top 3 rankings.

All previous selections I have posted following your initial selections have adopted those simple rules.

Hope you capitalised today on your good results.

Regards,

OM

Desi 29th February 2004 04:56 AM

Testa. Our Mainzcay,
Thats a lot of data...some excellent tips...is a $40-$60 split a normal betting allocation for these types of systems?

Seems a lot but having seen the results you would have to be in the black...

Thanks

TESTAROSSA 29th February 2004 09:36 AM

Saturdays Results:

Cranbourne

R2 (10) The Queen’s English - UNP
R3 (2) Kingdom’s Century – 3rd, $9.70

Gold Coast

R2 (5) Irish Band 3rd, (Under $8)

Newcastle

R1 (6) Salaam Dubai – UNP, (Under $8)
R2 (2) Al Tharb – 1st, (Under $8)
R4 (3) Jireha - UNP
R4 (6) Reconnoitre - 1st, (Under $8)

Toowoomba

R1 (2) Luke Tomahawk – 2nd, $4.70
R1 (11) Zellweger – 1st, (Under $8)
R2 (7) La Special – UNP, (Under $8)

Cheers.

TESTAROSSA 29th February 2004 10:04 AM

Sunday Selections:

Ballarat

R1 (9) Huahinee
R1 (10) Lucky Diva
R1 (11) Possible Chance
R2 (4) Exspecta Knockback
R2 (7) Leeds United
R3 (1) Bobbafet
R4 (12) Show Princess

Seymour

R2 (4) Grumpy Pat
R2 (7) Spelling
R2 (9) Wathohuck
R2 (12) Stolen Thunder
R3 (6) Geiger Way
R3 (8) Rain King
R3 (12) La Speranza

Sunshine Coast

R2 (6) Triple It Will

Cheers.

Chuck 29th February 2004 12:57 PM

Hey Testa,

Does the last (or second last) rule of the system have anything to do with the margin they were beaten by in their first race?

thx.

TESTAROSSA 1st March 2004 02:33 PM

Chuck,

On the right track!!!

TESTAROSSA 1st March 2004 02:34 PM

Sunday Results:

Ballarat

R1 (9) Huahinee - 3rd, $3.20
R1 (10) Lucky Diva - 1st, (Under $8)
R1 (11) Possible Chance - UNP
R2 (4) Exspecta Knockback - UNP
R2 (7) Leeds United - UNP
R3 (1) Bobbafet - 1st, (Under $8)
R4 (12) Show Princess - 1st, (Under $8)

Seymour

R2 (4) Grumpy Pat - UNP, (Under $8)
R2 (7) Spelling - UNP, (Under $8)
R2 (9) Wathohuck - 1st, (Under $8)
R2 (12) Stolen Thunder - UNP
R3 (6) Geiger Way - UNP
R3 (8) Rain King - 2nd, (Under $8)
R3 (12) La Speranza - UNP

Sunshine Coast

R2 (6) Triple It Will - UNP

Cheers.


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