Why not? Surely, it should give you more confidence to back a team with such a good record at the ground and against this opposition. Then again, I guess if you had taken H2H more into account, you probably wouldn't have backed Geelong. Is that right?

Anyway, that now makes 8 wins from 11 matches at Subiaco for Port Adelaide, including 4 from 4 against the Dockers. I'm thinking of calling it a 'neutral' venue for Port from now on.

Speaking of good away records, here's a wierd one. In the NRL, Brisbane have won 11 of their last 12 games at Parramatta, but Parramatta have won 7 of their last 9 games in Brisbane. Work that out!!!


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-20 08:23 ]

What goes around,comes around.

Hawthorn got hammered and Richmond went down as well.How do you figure 4-1.
Well done with Geelong.

And a big cheerio to Beberrycareful.Killing 'em son.Might make you my new hero if you keep this up.

Moe, 4-1 on saturday not for the wkend...

League went 2-0, afl went 1-2.

Still yesterday was a good day overall and makes up for friday (my largest loss in day so far).

brisbane cost me $75

my pick 6..

brisbane-port-melbourne-kangaroos-adelaide-carlton

my worst betting week ever.

Isn't Adelaide and Melbourne still playing or am I caught in a time warp?

Melbourne won.

Adelaide is still playing but in the final quarter dominating.

I think it's safe to assume they will win.

If it makes you feel any better primo I lost over 10k on AFL/NRL this weekend.

Mr J how could you lose so much money in one weekend?

I had no idea anyone was betting that big around here.

You'll make that money back, right?

I thought you thought your strike rate over the weekend was going well.

Just goes to show you need to put more on the winners and less on the losers.
Well I collected the princely sum of $61.60 for my $20 on Saints -43.5 into Crows straight out.
First collect for the year,but jump on boys.Like I said Heed for whom the bell tolls.And finally the god of probabilities is playing my song.

And is it true that Foxtel were in fact playing a delayed telecast of the Crows match into Melbourne.

MOOEEEE and others
The treble arrived
st george -5.5
kangaroos-11.5
melbourne demons
hooray
and the other one still going although its obscure france have to beat switzerland by 2+
goals

Well, in the AFL, I had 3 bets this week:
Geelong(+19.5) vs Brisbane (2 units @ 1.85)
Port Adel to beat Fremantle (2 units @ 1.95)
Double - Kangaroos/Adelaide (1 unit @ 2.40)

By the way Primo, I worked out that if you had simply put $5 on all of those 6 teams to win instead of putting on a pick-6, you would have ended up with a profit of around $14 for the weekend. Or similarly, if you had taken 6 doubles, you'd have made around $23 profit. Not a fortune I know, but better than nothing.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-20 19:39 ]

Well done Rabbitz!

thanks the 'nutz
i think that it is better to not bet on lions anymore,because on the one hand you want them to win and on the other you get annoyed if they dont cover the start as well
cheers

Are you talking to me, Primo or punters in general? I almost never bet on the Brisbane Lions, because they're my team and if I bet on them and they lose, I'm disappointed twice!

And I thought the atkins diet was good :smile:

I bet on Italy to beat Denmark and that was triple disappointment...

Italy drew.
I lost my bet.
Totti got 3 match suspension.

Moe no offence but you really don't like to read my posts in whole...

I said friday was bad. I went 0-2.

I said saturday was unlucky not to be 4-1, it went 3-2.

Sunday was horrible and went 2-4, again things not going my way (warriors).

"Just goes to show you need to put more on the winners and less on the losers."

Sorry but that just doesn't make any sense.

No Primo it isn't that bad at all. My unit size is fairly large. Winners in tennis and MLB actually cut my total losses in half and I made much much more in the previous 10 days.

Is this another treble or did you take heed of advice.
I remember there being thoughts of Brisbane at -21.5 in there instead of the Demons.

You can't do that Sportznut.I mean,you can but you shouldn't.If you hadda done this or that based on one weeks result can spell doom.
Next week 2 teams go down,he still loses the $5 multi stake.What you propose would then lose even more.
Probabilities Sportznut,are like physics.Most people Know little about them but they are why things happen or don't.

Be very careful Beberrycareful.
We all know what happened to Unlucky Phil.

2 winning bets out of 3 can be a losing day if the losing bet was a special and the investment was proportionately large.

But there's no logic in that moe. To be able to put more money on the winners, you have to know which ones the winners would be. If you knew which would win, then you'd not bet the ones that will lose and get a strikerate of 100%.

What you suggest is impossible.

Exactly Mr J.

But do you bet to chances or do you bet level stakes?
I believe you got about 5 winners and 8 losers over the weekend.
40% strike rate sounds good,so how come a losing weekend.

What I'm trying to get across is that maybe the evens Hawthorn at +43.5 was not as much value as the evens Geelong at +20.5
So I would think that Geelomg was worth investing a bit more on.
I realize that AFL is not your forte at the moment,and also I'm talking after the race,but sometimes there is logic underneath all the bull********.

Oops! Thanks moeee. My attempt at humour. Sorry Mr J. Hope you strike back with a vengeance.

"My attempt at humour."

I didn't realize it could be taken for anything else??!!?

Moe. I mainly bet against the spread, i.e. line/handicap betting. All bets a roughly even money, give or take 10 cents. Basically I have to pick more than 50% winners to profit.

I now realize what you are saying, ie I should size my bet according to perceived advantage. I don't do this simply because I have no idea how accurate my system is yet, and I don't want to overbet.

The right way to do this is to analyse past bets and see how they have performed in relation to the perceived advantage. Thing is you need a large sample size, which I don't have. I will go back and check it out anyway, see if it suggests anything.

Yeah, I use 3 different bet sizes, depending on my level of confidence for each bet.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-21 18:46 ]

With my puny bankroll compared to yours,not really for me to make decisions for you Mr J.
And you've probably been there done that,however.
Have you considered for example on the Saturday you might have 4 selections,all being at even money.
Instead of investing a grand on each,perhaps 1500,1200,800 and 500 or something similar.
Or better still bet to chances.
If you think Hawthorn might lose by 20 points and can get +43 at evens then back them as though you were getting +23 points on a genuine evens chance.This equates to about a 3's on chance so back them as if they were.
I realize you are still learning the ins and outs of AFL betting,as we all are,and maybe someones got some ideas to share rather than sharing their sorrows and successes.

Cheers Mo.

Moe I understand what you are saying, it just isn't wise for me to do that at this point. It's not really anything specific to AFL, it's just that I don't have a large enough sample to find out where my advantages lie and how accurate the perceived advantages are.

If I think one team should be +20, and they are +40, you'd think it would warrant a larger bet. Thing is maybe I have that match wrong, which means I'd be overbetting.

Until you can be reasonably sure of the size of your perceived advantages, using different stake sizes is quite dangerous.

Flatbetting at first is always the best way to go. If your system is profitable, then you will profit.

Nice to see you understood everything I was saying Mr J.
I'll endeavour to look more carefully into your posts from now.Sometimes it's the terminology and sometimes blinkers for the first time get in the way.:smile:

Cheers.