Collingwood are my specials this week, -10.5 @ $2.10 and -16.5 @ $2.39

Rabbs they are a $1.94 now

Got egg on my face last week but Essendon easily against the Tigers.
I think the old sacked coach system only works once for each team.

Good luck anyway Mr J.

Mo, I don't really care if Richmond covers or not. I didn't bet that one since none of my bookies had them that high. +16.5 was the best, where as I needed +17.5 for it to be a bet.

That's the first game I've posted that I haven't bet on though. I would bet it if I could. My system profits over the longterm so that's enough reason to bet it.

Without injury info, coaching changes, motivation etc my system has won 57.5% over nearly 700 picks. That's just using sportTAB spreads. Use a handful of good bookies and that figure will jump to
59-60%. Also remember this is against the spread, where the probabilities of winning each bet is basically a coinflip.

BTW, 57.5% = 10%POT, 59-60% = 13-15%POT.

Cue back in the rack until next weekend :smile:

AFL Ladder before tonight's game:

1. St.K 44
2. Bris 40
3. Port 40
4. Melb 40
5. GEELONG 32
6. Frem 32
7. Sydn 32
8. Esse 32
9. Kang 28
10. WCst 24
11. Carl 24
12. Adel 20
13. COLLINGWOOD 20
14. WBul 16
15. Rich 16
16. Hawt 8

Why on earth were Collingwood favourites? :???:


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-10 00:11 ]

Beats me sportznut, but I'm not complaining :wink:

I got my picks wrong.

West Coast -6.5 was never my systems pick, it was Haw +8.5.

Course I've already bet it so I've had to put a 2u pick on Hawthorn. Lucky I've got some big bettors following me, I've got an arb AND a middle, in addition to a +EV bet.

Richmond +15.5 2.03 is also a bet for me. +17.5 2.02 is available at betfair.

Well my system pick 4 faves and 8 dogs last week. This weekend it's picking just 3 faves and 11 dogs. And no, it's not biased towards dogs anymore (I fixed it before last weekend).