3RD ACCEPTORS

No Horse Trainer Weight Penalty

1 AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' Barbara Joseph 50
2 BALMUSE (NZ) Kevin Myers 52
3 BRAELOCH (NZ) Guy Walter 51.5
4 CAPE KENNEDY Cliff Brown 49
5 CONFECTIONER Tony McEvoy 51 1.5
6 DANE BELLTAR Leon Macdonald 49
7 DANESTORM Rodney Douglas 51.5
8 DELZAO Greg Kavanagh 54
9 DESERT WAR Gai Waterhouse 52 2.5
10 DEVASTATING (NZ) John Collins 50
11 DISTINCTION (IRE) Michael Stoute 54
12 DISTINCTLY SECRET (NZ) Mark Walker 53.5
13 ELVSTROEM Tony Vasil 54
14 FREE AT LAST (NZ) Alan Mathews 49.5
15 GREY SONG Tom Hughes (Jnr) 52
16 HARD TO GET Mark Kavanagh 51
17 HUGS DANCER (FR) Tony McEvoy 52.5
18 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman 55.5
19 MR O'HARA John Symons 49.5
20 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman 56
21 NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison 53
22 PACIFIC DANCER (NZ) Shaun Dwyer 50.5
23 RINKY DINK Rick Hore-Lacy 49.5
24 ROMAN ARCH Mick Whittle 52.5
25 SET UP Graeme Rogerson 49.5
26 STAR OF GRETCHEN (NZ) Peter G Moody 49
27 STRASBOURG Bart Cummings 52
28 TALL TIMBERS Danny O'Brien 50.5
29 UNDER THE BRIDGE Tony Vasil 50
30 UPSETTHYM (NZ) Karen Fursdon 51
31 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody 50
32 WINNING BELLE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 49.5
33 YAKAMA Bevan Laming 50 1.0
34 ZAGALIA (NZ) Clarry Conners 51.5
35 ZAZZMAN Tony Vasil 52.5
36 ZUMANITY (NZ) John O'Shea 49.5

Order of entry:

Position Horse Trainer
1 Elvstroem (Tony Vasil)
2 Makybe Diva (GB) (Lee Freedman)
3 Mummify (Lee Freedman)
4 Delzao (Greg Kavanagh)
5= Distinction (IRE) (Michael Stoute)
5= Vouvray (NZ) (Peter G Moody)
5= Zagalia (NZ) (Clarry Conners)
8= Desert War (Gai Waterhouse) [inc 2.5kg pen]
8= Distinctly Secret (NZ) (Mark Walker)
8= Rinky Dink (Rick Hore-Lacy)
8= Upsetthym (NZ) (Karen Fursdon)
8= Winning Belle (NZ) (Gai Waterhouse)
8= Zumanity (NZ) (John O'Shea)
14= Braeloch (NZ) (Guy Walter)
14= Natural Blitz (Doug Harrison)
16= Ain't Seen Nothin' (Barbara Joseph)
16= Confectioner (Tony McEvoy) [inc 1.5kg pen]
16= Hard to Get (Mark Kavanagh)
16= Hugs Dancer (FR) (Tony McEvoy)
16= Roman Arch (Mick Whittle)
16= Yakama (Bevan Laming) [inc 1.0kg pen]
16= Zazzman (Tony Vasil)
23= Balmuse (NZ) (Kevin Myers)
23= Dane Belltar (Leon Macdonald)
23= Free At Last (NZ) (Alan Mathews)
23= Grey Song (Tom Hughes (Jnr))
23= Pacific Dancer (NZ) (Shaun Dwyer)
23= Star of Gretchen (NZ) (Peter G Moody)
23= Strasbourg (Bart Cummings)
30= Danestorm (Rodney Douglas)
30= Devastating (NZ) (John Collins)
30= Under the Bridge (Tony Vasil)
33 Set Up (Graeme Rogerson)
34 Tall Timbers (Danny O'Brien)

Current market:

No. Selection Win Place
169 Elvstroem $5.00 $2.00
137 Confectioner $7.00 $2.50
156 Desert War $9.00 $3.00
203 Hugs Dancer $9.00 $3.00
232 Makybe Diva $9.00 $3.00
248 Mummify $11.00 $3.50
160 Distinction $15.00 $4.50
349 Vouvray $15.00 $4.50
362 Zagalia $17.00 $5.00
151 Delzao $21.00 $6.00
356 Winning Belle $21.00 $6.00
109 Balmuse $26.00 $7.25
121 Braeloch $26.00 $7.25
366 Zumanity $26.00 $7.25
157 Devastating $41.00 $11.00
193 Grey Song $41.00 $11.00
266 Pacific Dancer $41.00 $11.00
345 Upsetthym $41.00 $11.00
161 Distinctly Secret $51.00 $13.50
181 Free At Last $51.00 $13.50
252 Natural Blitz $51.00 $13.50
288 Rinky Dink $51.00 $13.50
319 Strasbourg $51.00 $13.50
326 Tall Timbers $51.00 $13.50
343 Under The Bridge $67.00 $17.50
364 Zazzman $81.00 $21.00
101 Ain't Seen Nothin' $101.00 $26.00
196 Hard To Get $101.00 $26.00
290 Roman Arch $101.00 $26.00
359 Yakama $101.00 $26.00
145 Dane Belltar $151.00 $38.50
147 Danestorm $151.00 $38.50
302 Set Up $151.00 $38.50
317 Star of Gretchen $151.00 $38.50
245 Mr O'hara $201.00 $51.00
129 Cape Kennedy $301.00 $76.00

Oaks Double big chance for Caulfield success.

Having been fortunate enough to quinella the Qld oaks with Zumanity and Vouray, I think they can do it again in the Caulfield.

Have a look at the leisurely gallop oshea had Zummanity with Mertens up put in on Sat. The Yalumba will bring her 100 % to her top.

Current fixed odds market:

No Selection Win Price Place Price

169 ELVSTROEM $4.50 $1.85
137 CONFECTIONER $6.50 $2.35
248 MUMMIFY $6.50 $2.35
203 HUGS DANCER $7.50 $2.60
156 DESERT WAR $9.00 $3.00
232 MAKYBE DIVA $9.00 $3.00
160 DISTINCTION $15.00 $4.50
349 VOUVRAY $15.00 $4.50
356 WINNING BELLE $17.00 $5.00
362 ZAGALIA $17.00 $5.00
151 DELZAO $21.00 $6.00
109 BALMUSE $26.00 $7.25
366 ZUMANITY $26.00 $7.25
345 UPSETTHYM $41.00 $11.00
121 BRAELOCH $51.00 $13.50
161 DISTINCTLY SECRET $51.00 $13.50
181 FREE AT LAST $67.00 $17.50
193 GREY SONG $67.00 $17.50
252 NATURAL BLITZ $67.00 $17.50
288 RINKY DINK $67.00 $17.50
319 STRASBOURG $81.00 $21.00
101 AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' $101.00 $26.00
290 ROMAN ARCH $101.00 $26.00
326 TALL TIMBERS $101.00 $26.00
359 YAKAMA $101.00 $26.00
343 UNDER THE BRIDGE $126.00 $32.25
364 ZAZZMAN $126.00 $32.25
157 DEVASTATING $151.00 $38.50
196 HARD TO GET $151.00 $38.50
266 PACIFIC DANCER $151.00 $38.50
317 STAR OF GRETCHEN $151.00 $38.50
145 DANE BELLTAR $201.00 $51.00
245 MR O'HARA $201.00 $51.00
302 SET UP $201.00 $51.00
129 CAPE KENNEDY $301.00 $76.00

Market movement - those currently under 50/1:

No Selection NOW WAS

169 ELVSTROEM $4.50 $5.00
137 CONFECTIONER $6.50 $7.00
248 MUMMIFY $6.50 $11.00
203 HUGS DANCER $7.50 $9.00
156 DESERT WAR $9.00 $9.00
232 MAKYBE DIVA $9.00 $9.00
160 DISTINCTION $15.00 $15.00
349 VOUVRAY $15.00 $15.00
356 WINNING BELLE $17.00 $21.00
362 ZAGALIA $17.00 $17.00
151 DELZAO $21.00 $21.00
109 BALMUSE $26.00 $26.00
366 ZUMANITY $26.00 $26.00
345 UPSETTHYM $41.00 $41.00

GREY SONG $67.00 / $17.50 !!

That will do me EW!!

Where can you get such odds?. Grey might not qualify anyway...

Grey Song = 23rd, very unlikely to get in the 18, might get in as an emergency.

Unlikely runners above him are
Braeloch
Hard To Get
Natural Blitz
Rinky Dink (may still run, but others almost certainly out)

Right now I am looking for a bit of value and I like the look of 2 kiwis in Vouvray and Balmuse. Vouvray first up run was sensational and she did pretty much win the QLD Oaks off of a spell so it would seem she doesnot need alot of racing to get right even at the distance. Balmuse might be the best horse we have seen from NZ since the mighty Sunline retired I have an extremely high opinion of this horse wouldn't be surprised if he runs a huge race in this.


Just out of interest does anyone know what happened to Braeloch the other day he seemed to take a very awkward step just before he shot back through the field like a cannon was just wondering if there was something wrong with the horse.

Only a few positions but thought GS was sitting in 20th posi.

Balmuse, is also ranked =23rd. So could be risky backing him before tomorrows final acceptances.

The only thing I heard about Braeloch was that he was highly unlikely to run in the Caulfield Cup after his shocker in the Yalumba.

Read the paper saying that Braeloch is a no runner in C.Cup.
Grey Song and Balmuse might get the chance to enter by committee as both have good forms.

They are equal 20th not 23rd.

the 3 that could be under threat to miss because of the commitee are
Roman Arch
Yakama
Zazzman

Also, last I heard was that Delzao's owners were still deciding whether to go to the CC or Cox Plate.

I got the Order of Entry from http://www.springracingcarnival.com that they only posted today. Now I look closer it is dated 5/10. Still has Braeloch etc in the Order.
Where could I find the latest one?

NSWTAB

Betting on Rinky Dink suspended.

Looks like Braeloch is out as well.

I've had a dabble (EW), currently listed at 50/1! Rate Distinctly Secret (on best form) up with the leading lights and is assured of a start.

No Horse Trainer Weight

1 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman 56
2 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman 55.5
3 DELZAO Greg Kavanagh 54
4 DISTINCTION (IRE) Michael Stoute 54
5 ELVSTROEM Tony Vasil 54
6 DISTINCTLY SECRET (NZ) Mark Walker 53.5
7 HUGS DANCER (FR) Tony McEvoy 52.5
8 ROMAN ARCH Mick Whittle 52.5
9 BALMUSE (NZ) Kevin Myers 52
10 DESERT WAR Gai Waterhouse 52 2.5
11 GREY SONG Tom Hughes (Jnr) 52
12 STRASBOURG Bart Cummings 52
13 ZAGALIA (NZ) Clarry Conners 51.5
14 CONFECTIONER Tony McEvoy 51 1.5
15 UPSETTHYM (NZ) Karen Fursdon 51
16 PACIFIC DANCER (NZ) Shaun Dwyer 50.5
17 AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' Barbara Joseph 50
18 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody 50
19 YAKAMA Bevan Laming 50 1.0
20 FREE AT LAST (NZ) Alan Mathews 49.5
21 WINNING BELLE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 49.5
22 DANE BELLTAR Leon Macdonald 49
23 STAR OF GRETCHEN (NZ) Peter G Moody 49

Tab No. Horse Trainer Jockey Weight

1 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman D Nikolic 56
2 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman G Boss 55.5
3 DELZAO Greg Kavanagh Steven King 54
4 DISTINCTION (IRE) Michael Stoute D Oliver 54
5 ELVSTROEM Tony Vasil N Rawiller 54
6 DISTINCTLY SECRET (NZ) Mark Walker D Beadman 53.5
7 HUGS DANCER (FR) Tony McEvoy G Childs 52.5
8 ROMAN ARCH Mick Whittle L Nolen 52.5
9 BALMUSE (NZ) Kevin Myers 52
10 DESERT WAR Gai Waterhouse S Seamer 52
11 GREY SONG Tom Hughes (Jnr) D Beasley 52
12 ZAGALIA (NZ) Clarry Conners M J Walker 51.5
13 CONFECTIONER Tony McEvoy R S Dye 51
14 UPSETTHYM (NZ) Karen Fursdon R McLeod 51
15 AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' Barbara Joseph 50
16 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody C Munce 50
17 YAKAMA Bevan Laming 50
18 WINNING BELLE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse S Baster 49.5
19E STRASBOURG Bart Cummings S Baster 52
20E PACIFIC DANCER (NZ) Shaun Dwyer 50.5
21E DANE BELLTAR Leon Macdonald Ms C Lindop 49


_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!



[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2004-10-12 16:28 ]

Current fixed odds market:

No. Selection Win Place
005 Elvstroem $4.00 $1.75
001 Mummify $6.50 $2.35
013 Confectioner $6.50 $2.35
007 Hugs Dancer $9.00 $3.00
010 Desert War $9.00 $3.00
002 Makybe Diva $11.00 $3.50
004 Distinction $17.00 $5.00
009 Balmuse $17.00 $5.00
016 Vouvray $17.00 $5.00
018 Winning Belle $17.00 $5.00
003 Delzao $21.00 $6.00
012 Zagalia $21.00 $6.00
006 Distinctly Secret $51.00 $13.50
008 Roman Arch $51.00 $13.50
011 Grey Song $51.00 $13.50
014 Upsetthym $51.00 $13.50
019 Strasbourg 1em $51.00 $13.50
020 Pacific Dancer 2em $51.00 $13.50
017 Yakama $67.00 $17.50
015 Ain't Seen Nothin' $101.00 $26.00
021 Dane Belltar 3em $101.00 $26.00




OFFICIAL THREAD TIPPING PAST THIS POINT





[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2004-10-14 18:42 ]

5 ELVSTROEM
10 DESERT WAR
1 MUMMIFY
13 CONFECTIONER

10 Desert War
1 Mummify
7 Hugs Dancer
17 Yakama

Any comment why Yakama and Grey Song have such great odds?. Yakama has a good dist record and Grey Sond can always upset the lot. Remember that he did give a great fight to Mummify in last year C.Cup. Might do it again this year.

Looking at Grey Song's overall stats:-
46 Starts for 5 wins.
Dist 11-1:2:2
Track 14-1:5:0

Can see why at current odds, considering top market chances are all in good form.


Yakama is a little better.
37 Starts for 8 wins.
Dist 3-2:0:1
Track 6-1:0:1


I'd focus for a place.

2004 CARLTON DRAUGHT CAULFIELD CUP

Saturday October 16 - 4.05pm

$2,515,000; 2400 metres

1 Mummify Danny Nikolic (8) 56
2 Makybe Diva Glen Boss (20) 55.5
3 Delzao Steven King (9) 54
4 Distinction Damien Oliver (7) 54
5 Elvstroem Nash Rawiller (4) 54
6 Distinctly Secret Darren Beadman (21) 53.5
7 Hugs Dancer Greg Childs (12) 52.5
8 Roman Arch Luke Nolen (19) 52.5
9 Balmuse Corey Brown (2) 52
10 Desert War Scott Seamer (1) 52
11 Grey Song Danny Beasley (13) 52
12 Zagalia Michael Walker (5) 51.5
13 Confectioner Shane Dye (10) 51
14 Upsetthym Rhys McLeod (17) 51
15 Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Blake Shinn (6) 50
16 Vouvray Chris Munce (14) 50
17 Yakama Mark Zahra (16) 50
18 Winning Belle Stephen Baster (11) 49.5

EMERGENCIES:

19 Strasbourg ---- (15) 52
20 Pacific Dancer ---- (18) 50.5
21 Dane Belltar Clare Lindop (3) 49

The more i look at this race the more i am leaning towards Balmuse, he won in devastating style last start when he had two kg more then Starcraft, drops a massive 7 kg for this, drawn barrier 2, good chance. Elvstroem will be extremely hard to beat from barrier 4 however, perhaps a quinella.

I like Confectioner which ran very well inTurnbull when lost by 1.75 length to Elvstroem. Now he is getting 1.5Kg better than Elv. Shane Dye should do the job for Tony McEvoy who are in great form. From Barrier 10 is perfect for Conf. Still rate Elv as the main danger and 4 other outsider (Grey Song, Vouvray, Mummify and Hugs Dancer) as the other place getter.

For Balmuse, barrier 2 might be to inside for him as he might get trapped as he is a backmarker.

MUMMIFY
MAKYBE DIVA
ZAGALIA
ELVSTROEM

It might hurt Balmuse being inside or it might work the other way he could get a dream run when they all fan out on the corner I know I will be on him and the barrier just made it that much more comfortable backing him.

Distinction is a scratching this morning.

Yep. Scratched at 6:30 this morning on vet’s advice.

bummer!! thought Distinction had a strong EW chance!

Tab No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight

1 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman D Nikolic 8 56
2 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman G Boss 20 55.5
3 DELZAO Greg Kavanagh Steven King 9 54
4 DISTINCTION (IRE) Michael Stoute D Oliver 7 54
5 ELVSTROEM Tony Vasil N Rawiller 4 54
6 DISTINCTLY SECRET (NZ) Mark Walker D Beadman 21 53.5
7 HUGS DANCER (FR) Tony McEvoy G Childs 12 52.5
8 ROMAN ARCH Mick Whittle L Nolen 19 52.5
9 BALMUSE (NZ) Kevin Myers C Brown 2 52
10 DESERT WAR Gai Waterhouse S Seamer 1 52 2.5
11 GREY SONG Tom Hughes (Jnr) D Beasley 13 52
12 ZAGALIA (NZ) Clarry Conners M J Walker 5 51.5
13 CONFECTIONER Tony McEvoy R S Dye 10 51 1.5
14 UPSETTHYM (NZ) Karen Fursdon R McLeod 17 51
15 AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' Barbara Joseph B Shinn (a) 6 50
16 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody C Munce 14 50
17 YAKAMA Bevan Laming M J Zahra 16 50
18 WINNING BELLE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse M Pumpa 11 49.5
19E STRASBOURG Bart Cummings S Baster 15 52
20E PACIFIC DANCER (NZ) Shaun Dwyer 18 50.5
21E DANE BELLTAR Leon Macdonald Ms C Lindop 3 49

Hi all,

Can anyone tells me what is or what will the weather and track condition at Caulfield now and forecasted?

Current WIN & PLACE fixed odds:

No. Selection Win Place
005 Elvstroem $3.75 $1.65
001 Mummify $6.50 $2.35
013 Confectioner $6.50 $2.35
007 Hugs Dancer $10.00 $3.25
010 Desert War $10.00 $3.25
002 Makybe Diva $13.00 $4.00
009 Balmuse $13.00 $4.00
018 Winning Belle $17.00 $5.00
003 Delzao $21.00 $6.00
016 Vouvray $21.00 $6.00
011 Grey Song $26.00 $7.25
012 Zagalia $26.00 $7.25
019 Strasbourg 1em $34.00 $9.25
020 Pacific Dancer 2em $51.00 $13.50
006 Distinctly Secret $67.00 $17.50
008 Roman Arch $67.00 $17.50
015 Ain't Seen Nothin' $67.00 $17.50
014 Upsetthym $81.00 $21.00
017 Yakama $81.00 $21.00
021 Dane Belltar 3em $126.00 $32.25
004 Distinction Scratched Scratched

Latest market movement:

No. Selection NOW WAS

005 Elvstroem $3.75 $4.00
001 Mummify $6.50 $6.50
013 Confectioner $6.50 $6.50
007 Hugs Dancer $10.00 $9.00
010 Desert War $10.00 $9.00
002 Makybe Diva $13.00 $11.00
009 Balmuse $13.00 $17.00
018 Winning Belle $17.00 $17.00
003 Delzao $21.00 $21.00
016 Vouvray $21.00 $17.00
011 Grey Song $26.00 $51.00
012 Zagalia $26.00 $21.00
019 Strasbourg 1em $34.00 $51.00
020 Pacific Dancer 2em $51.00 $51.00
006 Distinctly Secret $67.00 $51.00
008 Roman Arch $67.00 $51.00
015 Ain't Seen Nothin' $67.00 $101.00
014 Upsetthym $81.00 $51.00
017 Yakama $81.00 $67.00
021 Dane Belltar 3em $126.00 $32.25
004 Distinction Scratched Scratched

MUMMIFY
ELVSTROEM
HUGS DANCER
ZAGALIA