to marco
 

It would be great to hear from you.

I am at wendyl@austarnet.com.au

congrats on today. Always think its wierd when the shortest price pick is the only one that looses,. Congrats again

I handicapped WTA with the same formulas as ATP and gave up in financial fustration after 4 years. So I admire u greatly

Karla

Update
 

Update

33 Bets: 25 wins; 8 losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 33; Won 10.36; ROI 31.4%

Small loss for the day (.17 unit; 8.5% of day's stake) with Cho falling to Stosur.
Those early enough to get the $2.00 on Vaidisova would have broken even as she beat Sprem fairly easily.

The third round traditionally presents few beting opportunities as the heavyweights come up against the middleweights and lightweights. Probably
back to short prices. After this round finishes I should post around 8pm AEST.

Day 5
 

Kirilenko v Medina-Garrigues
Indian Wells

If you read the previous posts on these two players you'll understand why I'm backing Kirilenko. Reasonably short odds but still value at the price. Kirilenko
is in better form and is the better hardcourt player by some margin. I didn't expect Garrigues to get this far but today is a big step up for someone who just won her first game for the year.

Kirilenko $1.36 @ Ladbrokes
Bookies a bit slow to price up today but I don't think there'll be better
prices on Kirilenko.

Notes: I'm keen on Conchita Martinez over Jackson tonight but we're right on the value line. That is, I need $1.38 minimum for value and the price is currently $1.36. I won't get a chance to post again prior to the match, but if the price drifts then I'd take the bet. I won't record this in the history either way but its a sound bet at $1.38 or better - (the bookies being a bit slow is making for a long day).

Day 6
 

Update and Day 6

34 Bets: 26 Wins; 8 Losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 34; Win 10.72; ROI 31.5%


Kirilenko saluted the judges yesterday as did our unofficial (won't be recorded) tip Martinez. I don't know if anybody managed to get the $1.38 on Martinez - the best I saw at my various bookies was $1.37 though I only had limited time to check yesterday.


Vaidisova V Pierce
Indian Wells

I've written quite a bit about Vaidisova over the past few posts so I won't repeat myself. Needless to say she's a red-hot youngster coming up against an experienced yet past-her-best Mary Pierce. I thought long and hard about posting this bet. While Vaidisova is a clear favourite in my stats (58.5% v 41.5%), she's only 15 and is relatively untested at this level. Pierce has the experience and on her day can still compete at the top level - however her recent results leave a lot to be desired. She's played very little this year (6 games) and this is only her second hardcourt tournament for 2005. She displayed a competent yet somewhat erratic performance against Cervanova in Round 2, but it's this variablitly in her performance that leaves her vulnerable. This will be a close match but on the balance of probabilites, Vaidisova is value.

Vaidisova; $1.91 - Pinnacle & 5Dimes


Kirkland v Craybas
Indian Wells

Another close match up. Kirkland is a young American with a strong serve and plenty of attitude. She's probably exceeded expectations in this tournament but has been impressive in her general play. Kirkland did benefit from an injury-plagued performance from Bartoli in Round 2, but has beaten the likes of Cho, Granados,and Diaz-Oliva on hardcourts this year. Her 42/25
record on hard reflects her overall talent. Kirkland's opponent Craybas has been having an ordinary season, so-much-so she dropped back tp the challenger circuit last month. However her losses this season have mostly been close 3-set affairs to reasonable opponents so she'll definitely push Kirkland all the way. Craybas also recorded a solid win against the over-rated Likhovtseva in Round 2. I split the match 50/50 so there's value on Kirkland at the price.

Kirkland; $2.20 @ Ladbrokes
(can't see this price lasting too long but still available).


Dechy v Stosur.
Indian Wells

Stosur surprised me by passing Cho in the previous round and her effort was a definite improvement upon recent performances. However Dechy should have too much for her today. The Frenchy has quite a few ranking points to defend here this week and has a relatively favourable draw to the QF's - so her motivation should be high. Her first-up game against Loit yesterday wasn't anything special but I still consider her all-round game superior to Stosur's. Dechy's mental tenacity can be a bit woeful sometimes, but the importance of the tournament may see a repeat of her excellent Australian Open effort - the last "big" tournament she played in. Historically, she always seems to lift for
these 'ranking' occassions.


Dechy; $1.50 @ SportsTab, Pinnacle, 5Dimes

Update and Day 7
 

Update

Bet 37; Won 28; Lost 9.
At Flat Stakes; Bet 37, Won 11.42; ROI 30.8%

A relatively good day at the office - Vaidisova let us down but I still think she'll be a good betting prospect over the next few months. Dechy did just enough to beat Stosur in a nailbiter while Kirkland won but played quite poorly.

The wind was really blowing today with quite a few players complaining about the effect it had on their serve. If the wind continues it will probably hamper players who rely on a big serve to win games. Are the conditions having similar effects on the ATP players?

Martinez v Kirilenko
Indian wells

Both players have made us money over the past few weeks so it's always "hard" to tip against one of them. However Martinez should be too good for Kirilenko on the day. As Pierce showed yesterday experience counts, and Martinez has been a professional player for 17 years while Kirilenko is only 17-years-old. The Spaniard has great variety in her game - slices, spins, looping topspins, drop shots - that often confuse younger players. As Martinez herself says "I never try to hit balls they expect" (eg: baseline rallies). Both players are in great form and both are very competent on hard. However experience and variety in the difficult conditions favour Martinez who I rate a 65.1% v 34.9% chance to win.

Martinez $1.80 @ Sporting Odds & SportingBet.

I expect Martinez to shorten in the market so this will probably be the best price.

Hi Marco


Thanks for the selections today. Yes Dechy sure was a cliff hanger. I think Stosur is one not to under estimate.

Can't go with you on Martinez tomorrow. I really don't like these 30+ people. I wonder if you should go back through your selections and see what the record is on these "oldies". I think Martinez lost for us 2 weeks ago.

As for the wind the ATP results wouldn't show much as the only big server in action was Roddick and he won easily 6-1 6-2 over an oldie - Novak. The breaks in serve in this tournament so far is enormous so you might be right, that is to stick with people who have a good over all game.

Got your e-mail ok. Lots of food for thought. Will reply later in the week. But thanks I appreciate the effort and honesty you put in to answer my query.

karla

Karla - thanks for the reply. Some interesting points in relation to
the ATP.

Martinez has been a positive earner for me this year as has Kirilenko. Some of themore statistical points that make me lean toward Martinez are:

Prior to this tournament she was 9-4 on hard for season.
Is 143/87 on hard over the past 8-and-half years (that's as far as my data goes back).
Solid wins over Myskina, Dechy, Peer, Linetskya and Groenefeld with in the past 4-5 weeks.
Won Pattaya Title in February.
Quarter Finalist in Indian Wells 2004. lost to Myskina (4th seed) in tight 3 setter.
Semi Finalist in Indian Wells 2003 - losing to Klijsters (1 seed).
Her current rating in my database is higher than it was in 2003 or 2004 Indian Wells tournament.
Her interviews over the past month - including the past few days - are very confident. She retires at the end of the year but reckons she's never enjoyed the game as much as she is now.

Kirilenko also has strong figures albeeit over a short time frame but loses points for success rate in
Quarter Final matches or better (ie: Semi Final and Finals). Her only Finals success was in the challengers last year, though she did beat Na Li in Hyderabad QF's this year.
Her performances at Indian Wells are negligible, though this is partly because she is young.
In the previous round Garrigue had seven break point opportunities but only made three. In Round 1 Bovina had 7 break point opportunities but only converted 3. If Martinez gets the same opportunity to break, I believe she'll have a higher conversion rate.

That said, Kirilenko can clearly still win. I just believe the value's with Martinez.

PS: It's a sad day when we both call 32 year-olds "oldies". I'd be happy to be 33 again :-)

Update

Bet 38; Won 30; Lost 8
At Flat Stakes: Bet 38; Won 12.2; ROI 32.1%

Granny Martinez managed to get across the line though she served poorly. Seems the wind died down today but the forecast for tommorrow is strong gusts at 30-40mph. Could be another tough day on court.

We're down to the final 8 so there'll be fewer tips over the next couple of days.

Not much else on offer tonight price wise. For the record, I doubt there'll be any surprises tonight though the weather may play a part in proceedings.
Clijsters to beat Martinez but way too short.
Kuznetsova to beat Dementieva but too short (need minimum $1.60 for overlay).
Davenport to beat Dechy but price about right.
Sharapova to beat Pierce but price about right.

Not exactly rocket science so we'll wait for the semi's.

Morning Marco


Well done on selecting Martinez. Forums are here for the purpose of exchanging information. I am actually more happy that your opinion proved correct than if mine got up.

Having an error of judgement is one thing but not learning from it turns it into a mistake. I think the lesson here is that the ATP and WTA are 2 different entities. Comparing one to the other is like comparing apples to oranges as the cliche goes.

I can give you heaps of stats that suggest Atp players are bad bets past the age of 30 but this may not hold true for the women. Lack of depth at the top maybe?

Obviously though comparing my experience in ATP to WTA is not the way to go.

Good work
Thanks
Karla

Semi Final
 

Clijsters v Dementieva
Indian Wells - Semi Final

An interesting match-up - the ex-champion Clijsters showing great form while coming back form a wrist injury versus the up-and-down yet classy Dementieva who has been defying opinions and a lot of money all week by continuing to win. The factors in Clijsters favour include her great record at Indian Wells, her success rate in Semi-Finals and Finals, her 5-1 h2h over Dementieva (though some of these matches are dated), her ratings improval in my database has improved over the past month more than Dementieva's (both form and surface), and her motivation during interviews has been very positive. As a minor aside (purely anecdotal), we're likely to see the return of her arch rival Henin-Hardenne from injury next week so Clijster's will be looking to outperform her in comeback matches (this is a HUGE rivalry). Dementieva is certainly capable of beating Clijsters and has an excellent record on US hardcourts. She's played well at Indian Wells before and has just beaten one of her Russian rivals Kuznetsova in the Quarters. Her matches this week have involved an element of 'luck' as both were comeback from behind victories. Her weakest link is her serve which can be all over the place - something Clijster's with her new aggressive technique will be looking to exploit. Dementieva has also been complaining in interviews that she's playing her worst tennis for years - though she's still winning! The Russian claims to be having trouble concentrating but whether these are just mind games with her opponent we're yet to see. I have Clijster's as a clear favourite and while she's right on the value line, I'll take the bet.

Clijsters $1.50 @ Pinnacle and Betfair.

Update
 

Clijster's cruised through in a fairly impressive result and now meets Davenport in the final. I'll be sitting this one out as the 'mental pressure factor' is too unpredictable - though Lindsay deserves to be favourite. Big week next week as the NASDQ gets underway so there'll be plenty of betting action.

Good to see the ATP lads are on a roll too.

Update

Bets 39; 31 Won; 8 Lost.
At Flat Stakes: Bet 39; Won 12.7; ROI 32.5%

Marco,
A few questions:

You really seem to a have great knowledge on the WTA. How long have you been analyzing and betting WTA?

What is your overall R.O.I?

Do you use a model to obtain ratings and prices?

Do you rate ALL WTA matches (not just the ones you mention here)?

Cheers!

Rock Steady - more than happy to answer questions but might be easier to do by email as this will save clogging up this tips thread.
Drop me a line on woof9898@yahoo.com.au - anyone who has questions can do likewise. Thanks.

First round tips for Nasdaq will be posted as soon as major bookies price up.

NASDAQ - Miami
 

Granville vs Gagliardi
Nasdaq - Qualifier Second Round

I don't usually bet on qualifiers but quite a few books have offered markets on this game. Granville's in great form at the moemnt - she won the St Paul and Midland hardcourt challengers last month and has a solid 89-58 carrer record on the surface. She also played quite well in Indian Wells last week beating Irvin and putting up a good fight against the classy Linetskya (who went on to knockout Mauresmo). Gagliardi is another matter. She is inconsistent to say the least and is still in the doghouse after meekly surrendering to Serra Zanetti in Acapulco (a losing bet for me). This is her first hardcourt tournament since Acapulco's clay, though she won in the first round over the low ranked and inexperienced Ahsha Rolle. Mind you, Rolle who's only played a few WTA matches, still took her to a tiebreaker. Granville on the other hand, double bagelled the more experienced Sequerra in the first round of qualifiers. Gagliardi's 65/87 hardcourt record also leaves a bit to be desired - as does her tenacity and general mental strength. The value is certainly with Granville in this one - I rate her a 70.1% chance of winning.

Granville $1.47 @ 5dimes.
(You can currently get better prices elsewhere - $1.50 or so - but 1.47 is price I received).

Update and Nasdaq-Miami
 

Bets 40; Won 32; Lost 8.
At Flat Stakes: Bet 40; Won 13.17; ROI 32.9%

Granville got across the line last night though I was surpised she took 3 sets to win.

Bookies very slow to price up WTA today - hope it's better during the week. I'll just list 5Dimes lines - there may be better prices with others later. May add a couple of games after the other major bookies price up (approx 1-2 hours time).



Peer vs Domachowska
Nasdaq - Round 1

Young Israeli Shahar Peer cam through qualifying in great fashion by thunping Talaja and Serra Zanetti in straight sets. She's also having a great season going 14-6 and easily beat Domachowska in the first round of the Pattaya hardcourts last month. Peer came through the qualies in that tournamnet as well so it's a virtual mirror of the current circumstances. Domachowska is no slouch on hardcourts with a 46/21 career record but her form of late has been rather average. She stuggled past clay couter Salerni in Indian
Wells last week but was then thumped by Garrigues. Prior to this she was 3-4 for the season in a series of up-and-down performances. Peer should be to quick for Domachowska and has the qualies as a valuable warm up.

Peer $1.64 @ 5Dimes


Bondarenko v Jidkova
Nasdaq - Round 1

Bondarenko's a young Ukranian with a good all-round game who has probably been playing the best tennis of her short career in the past few months. Her best reults came in Hyderabad where she was beaten in the final by hometown hero Mirza (though Bondarenko did benefit from Groenefeld withdrawing from their semi-final). Bondarenko's steady progress has seen her rating rise about 30 or so places this season and she comes into todays match with a couple of solid qualification results under her belt. Admittedly her opponents were rather lowly rated but her challenger today - Jidkova - has played very little lately and was easily beaten in Round 1 of Indian Wells last week.Jidkova's a paltry 2-6 for the season but the one thing in her favour is experience and the H2h which she leads 2-0 (though the games are dated). However I doubt this is enough to get her across the line. The value's with Bondarenko whom I rate a 62% chance of winning.

Bondarenko $1.69 @ 5Dimes

Medina-Garrigues v Weingartner.
Nasdaq - Round 1

Although I've opposed Garrigues in the past few weeks, I believe she'll have too much for the out-of-form Weingartner. Garrigues has had an ordinary start to the season - though most of her losses have been to top rated players such as Molik, Pierce and Dulko. However from what I saw in Indian Wells last week she's beginning to play good tennis with an easy win over Domachowska and a battling effort in losing to Kirilenko. While more of a claycourt player, Garrigues still has some good results on hard. Her
opponent Weingartner is 3-4 for the season and has a very moderate 87/106 record on the surface. Moreover, she has a rather ordinary record in this tournament and in general seems to struggle on the American hardcourt swing. Weingartner was knocked out in the first round of Indian Wells and with only a handful of games this year looks a little underdone (as reflected her ever dimishing WTA ranking).

Medina-Garrigues $1.63 @5Dimes

Notes - Avoid Daniliidou whose withdrawn from a couple of tournaments with an inflammed thumb. Likewise Groenefeld who is a few games back form a right knee strain.

Update and Nasdaq-Miami

Bets 43; Won 34; Lost 9.
At Flat Stakes: Bet 43; Won 13.33; ROI 31%

Relatively ordinary day - Garrigues was busy thumping Weingartner who then decided to retire (5Dimes is a 'first set for action' bookie so the bet stands), Peer played poorly to just scrape home and Bondarenko put in a shocker. Overall a small profit for the day.

I noticed Peer's price was only avialable for about half an hour before plunging with the weight of some big money. I'll therefore record her price as $1.54 - closer to the going rate - to keep the betting record on a more even keel. Note that you could get Garrigues and Bondarenko at slightly better prices but I'll leave them as they are.

My model did fairly poorly across all games yesterday. My higher rated player usually beats the lower rated player about 71% of the time - yesterday it was closer to 50%. Perhaps the slow conditions and weather delays played a part but I'll be a tad cautious over the next round or two.


Linetskya v Sucha.
Nasdaq - Round 1

A short price here but worth the punt as Linetskya is a very talented youngster displaying excellent current form. Most peple are fixated on her win over Mauresmo last week which was great, but Mauresmo's plethora of unforced errors certainly let her into the game. However Linetskya's form prior to this game was also strong with wins over Zvonereva, Morigami and Granville. She's 12-6 for the season and has 51-20 record on the surface. Though young she has performed well on the American harcourt swing and her
aggression is a definite asset. In contrast, Martina Sucha is having an ordinary 2005. She's 2-6 for the season with one of her wins coming against the terribly out-of-form Sugiyama and the other was won through Bedanova's retirement. Sucha was knocked out in the first round of Indian Wells lastweek, was knocked out int he first round of the Nasdaq in 2004, and was knocked out in the first round of the Nasdaq qualifiers in 2003. In fact she's 0-5 in her appearances at Miami. Note that Linetskya also thumped Sucha in Round 2 of this year's Australian Open - I rate her a 82.1% chance of winning.

Linetskya $1.25 @ WillHills
(early line - Pinnacle may have a better price later but I expect her to eventually shorten).

More bets posted this arvo after the numbers are crunched. Time for some sleep!

Voskoboeva vs Uberoi
Nasdaq - Round 1

Wouldn't normally take someone of Voskoboeva's standing at such low odds but I rate her an 85.2% chance of winning so I think there's value at the price. Voskoboeva's a competent hardcourt player with a solid clay record - so she won't mind the slower conditions. She hasn't set the world on fire this season but played very well in qualifying by beating the talented, never-say-die Cho and Nakamura. She also had a pretty good tournament in the Orange challenger last week losing to evntual winner Cho in a tight third round, 3-set encounter. In some respects this bet is more against Uberoi who is a moderate challenger type player who is ranked 299 and only made the Nasdaq as a wildcard (note this is Neha Uberoi and not the more talented Shikha Uberoi). Neha's only played 5 games this season (going 2/3) - including an easy loss to the totally unheralded Julie Ditty. She was also beaten last week in the first round of qualifying for the Orange challenger! In short, Voskoboeva's no world-beater but she's had a great qualie session and comes up against an underdone, lowly-ranked outsider who rarely plays at this level.

Voskoboeva $1.30 generally available.
( a few offer $1.35 but not at my bookies)

Kirilenko V Chakvetadze
Nasdaq - Round 1

I've written plenty about Kirilenko so won't go back over it. Chakvetadze is another up-and-coming talent from Russia who is capable of winning tonight but probably prefers faster conditions. Her best recent reults have come on Indoor carpet, a far cry form the sometimes windy and slow Miami courts. She does however have some good wins under her belt and had a reasonably good tournament in Indian Wells last week. Should be a close encounter but I believe the in-form Kirilenko will prevail as a 65.5% favourite.

Kirilenko $1.57 WillHill
(may be better prices by a few cents later).

Extra Bet
 

Mirza v Sanchez-Lorenzo
Nasdaq - Round 1

Mirza's the Indian wunderkid who made a name for herself last month by winning the Hyderabad tournament. She's a classy type with very strong groundstrokes which have seen her go 10/3 for the season. She has been troubled by ankle injuries lately but appears over the worst of it as seen in her straight sets win over the highly rated Kuznetsova in Dubai. Her opponent today Snachez-Lornzo is a competent hardcourt player who won't mind the slower conditions as she's equally at home on clay. She's had a very ordinary 6 months and a very ordinary 2005 (2-6 thus far) with her ranking dropping more than 60 places during this period. A short price but the value's with Mirza.

Mirza $1.36 generally available.

Update and Nasdaq

Bets 47; Win 37; Lost 10.
At Flat Stakes; Bet 47; Won 13.50; ROI 28.7%

Three out of four last night with Mirza ruining what could have been an excellent day. Nevertheless, a small profit made on the selections.


Shaughnessy v Schiavone
Nasdaq - Round 2

Shaughnessy has the advantage of playing a solid First Round match where sheeasily disposed of Fedak while Schiavone is coming off the bye. Shaughnessy,who generally plays well on home soil, is also coming off some solid Memphis formwhere she reached the finals after beating the likes of Vaidisova, Cho and Granville. Her Indian Wells form was pretty good too, losing in the third round to Davenport (she even managed to win a set). Her opponent Schiavone is a capable hardcourt player with an 82/62 career record. However she's had a mixed year which has seen her go 7/6 for the season. Her form in Doha was good but a loss to lowly-ranked Fujiwara in Indian Wells last week doesn't inspire confidence. Interestingly this was in the second round after Schiavone came off a bye. She was also eliminated in the first round of Dubai - albeit by a good player in Bovina, but this means she's had very little court time over the past few weeks. Should be a close match but Shaughnessy is a clear 61.1% favourite in my book.

Shaughnessy $1.83 @ Ladbrokes.
(I think the market will split these two fairly evenly so this price should hold).

Update

Bet 48; Win 37; Lost 11
At Flat Stakes: Bet 48; Won 12.50; ROI 26%

Well Good Friday wasn't so good! Shaughnessy shoulda, coulda, woulda . . . but didn't.
Never mind, let's get back on the horse and see how we go.

Backing an outsider tonight so keep your heart-medication close by.


Randriantefy v Koukalova.
Nasdaq - Round 2

I have these two fairly evenly matched at 53.7-46.3% to Randriantefy who is the marginally better hardcourt player. Both girls prefer clay though they're more evenly matched on the dirt (so the slow conditions shouldn't favour either girl). However Randriantefy has the advantage of a solid First-Round match under her belt. Granted her opponent Peterson was lowly ranked, but this warm-up compares favourably to Koukalova's preparation as she last played on Antwerp's carpet some 4 weeks ago. Much of this absence was forced by right shoulder tendonitis so she should be a bit rusty. Her form prior to her last appearance was also ordinary to say the least. Value is defintiely with the Madagascan.

Randriantefy $2.00 @ Ladbrokes and WillHill
(these are early lines - may be slightly better price later)

PS: May add another couple of bets to the one below after Pinnacle price up

Extra Bet

Sprem v Parra-Sontanja
Nasdaq - Round 2

The Croatian Sprem ranked 18 and with a 61/24 hardcourt record comes upagainst the Spaniard Parra-Sontanja ranked 76 with a 53/44 hardcourt record.Prior to the Nasdaq, Parra-Sontanja had played 4 matches on hard resulting in 4 thumpings - Smashnova beat her 6-0 6-0, Chakvetadze beat her 6-3 6-2, Likhovtseva beat her 6-0 6-0 and Talaja beat her 6-2 6-0 (more bagels than a New York deli!). She even struggled at times in her first round match with 15-year-old Tatishvili who has only played 5 Challenger games, 3 of which she won. Sprem has also had a few losses this year but they were close games to class players like Schydner, Vaidisova, Stosur (in Australia during her hot streak) and Safina in Paris (who went on to win tournament). Sprem has also had some good results on American hardcourts including making the quarter finals at this tournament last year. She's right on the 'value line' but I'll take her at the price (she'll be off my Xmas card list if she loses this one).


Sprem $1.28 generally available.
(some smaller bookies are offering $1.30).

Update

Bet 50; Won 39; Lost 11
At Flat Stakes: Bet 50; Won 13.28; ROI 26.5%

A very good night with both selections getting home. However Sprem played poorly andis one to avoid in the next round (apparently she's having some off-court personal problems as well). Randriantefy turned out to be great value and was easily obtainable at $2.20 in the late betting (though I'll still record the early price).

Cohen-Aloro v Sprem
Nasdaq - Round 3

Sprem played very poorly last night in a game she should have lost. As mentioned yesterday, Parra-Sontanja is currently a 'dog' on hardcourts but she still broke Sprem's serve at willand absolutely hammered her in the second set. Sprem may have been rusty coming off the bye but this shouldn't be an excuse against a player of Parra-Sontanja's calibre. While anecdotal, Sprem's personal life is currently a hot topic in the Croatian tabloids and while difficult todetermine the impact, she ceratinly played like someone who's distracted. Moreover, she withdrew from Qatar with lower back pain and has decided to withdraw from Croatia's forthcoming Fed Cup tie with Thailand as a precaution from 'overplaying. Sprem's opponent Cohen-Aloro has a 55/38 hardcourt record and is certainly a better player than Parra-Sontanja. She hasn't had a good year thus far but is showing good form at Miami with wins over Strycova and the in-form Hantuchova. That said, she came through to the main draw as a lucky loser, beating Bedanova in the first round of qualies and then losing to Serna. While I still rate Sprem the favourite (55.1-44.9%), her rating has fallen during this tournament (and has been falling for the past 2 weeks) while Cohen-Aloro's rating has improved some 40% during the same period. Value on the outsider but I wouldn't put the house on it.

Cohen-Aloro $2.65 @ 5Dimes
(Bookies very slow to price up. many haven't check the draw and have failed to price up tonight's 'extra' matches including Sprem. Might be better prices later),

Bet 51; Won 39; Lost 12
At Flat Stakes: Bet 51; Won 12.28; ROI 24%

What a difference a day makes - I couldn't have been more wrong about Sprem last night! She absolutely wiped the court with Cohen-Aloro who showed none of the grit that saw her beat Hantuchova the night before. Women!

Molik vs Henin.
Nasdaq - Round 4

I think everyone's having trouble pricing this match up. Molik's certainly playing a great game at the moment and has had some impressive results this season. Her serve, ground strokes and stamina are true class but the big question is: how fit is Henin? To be sure, at her peak she'd be a red hot favourite but you can't expect her to be anywhere near her best. She's certainly been workman-like this week and hasn't done anything wrong. However Henin has yet to face a player of consequence, having beaten Spears (who really only has a big serve) and claycourt specialist Llagostera-Vives. Now she may be pacing herself and may unleash tonight but these girls aren't robots so I expect Henin's long layoff to be exposed by Molik's power and stamina. I have a slight advantage to Molik - 51.1-48.9% so I'll take the Aussie.

Molik $2.15 @ 5dimes.


Clijsters - Myskina
Nasdaq - Round 4

Myskina recently took a couple of weeks off to refocus as she was playing so poorly. The rest seems to have worked and she's certainly picked up her play - but then again she's only faced Penetta and Vento-Kabchi. While these two are competent players, Clijster's is a different proposition. The Belgain will be very keen to follow-up on her recent tournament and with the Williams sisters and Henin all returning from injury, Clijster's will be out to assert herself. While I doubt she's at full strength, she hasn't put a foot wrong during her comeback and certainly gave Davenport a good game. The h2h is 4-3 to Clijster's though one of the games involved Clijster's retiring and another couple are rather dated. I expect this to be close, but the value is definitely with Clijsters whom I rate a 68.1% chance of winning.

Clijsters $1.48 @ StanJames and others.
(early lines)


Mauresmo v Sprem
Nasdaq - Round 4

I said my piece about Sprem yesterday and she proved me wrong (and some!) but I'm not convinced. Mauresmo' s had a few shaky moments over the past few weeks and even managed to lose to Linetskya. However she lost that game through a huge number of unforced errors and this is an exception rather than the rule. You won't see me punting down this end of the market too often but I still think's there value - though marginal - in the short odds. If not, my TV will
be taking a trip out the window.

Mauresmo $1.16 % 5Dimes
(some smaller books are offering 1.17).

Update


Bets 54; Won 41; Lost 13
At Flat Stakes: Bet 54; Won 11.92; ROI 22%


Well Molik let us down last night so a small loss for the evening. Good wins to
Mauresmo and Clijsters (who appears back to her best). Clijster's is my pick for the tournament at this point - though there's no value in the outright odds.



Sharapova vs Henin.
Nasdaq - Quarter Final

Following on form yesterday - I still don't think Henin is anywhere near her best. Fair enough, she disposed of Molik but Sharapova won't be as easy. Some people may be concerned over Sharpova's recent double-bagel loss to Davenport but I believe this was a one off - she simply had a bad day.
There's nothing in her performances this week that suggests she's below par and I'm sure her ultra-competitive ego took a real bruising. Sharapova will be looking for a bounce-back and while Henin can never be underestimated, it's
a big ask for her to win today. There may be a comparison with Clijster's recent comeback from injury in Antwerp where she blitzed the first two rounds but upon coming up against Serena Williams, she was bundled out rather easily. Similar situation today, in that Henin has played well for 3 games but hasn't faced stiff opposition (I believe the Sharapova - Molik divide is significant). I rate Sharapova a 65% chance of winning.

Sharapova $1.62 @ 5Dimes
(early line and prices may vary given opinion is mixed on Henin's current form)

Update

Bets 55; Won 42; Lost 13
At Flat Stakes: Bet 54; Won 12.54; ROI 23.2%

Nice win last night though a couple of very nervous moments in the second and third sets. I dislike Henin for her sometimes unsporting behaviour but you have to admire her grit.

Sharapova picked up a bit of an injury niggle so I'd be a tad wary of her in her next game.

Tournament gets rather difficult from here.

I'd like to take Clijster's over Dementieva but short value (need $1.36). Kim's also my pick for the tournament from here though no value in outright odds. I'd also like to back Ivanovic but more because I'm a fan of her play. Outside chance of an upset and closer than prices indicate but no value.

Back tomorrow.

An interesting couple of matches tonight.


Clijsters v Mauresmo.
Nasdaq Semi-Final.

I rate Clijsters a 66% chance of winning this match. Her current form is superb and she sounds very confident in her interviews. She does talk about a few aches and pains but then again which player doesn't. She didn't appear to burn too much fuel in her demolition of Dementieva yesterday so she should be relatively 'fresh' for this match. Since her comeback, Clijster's serve appears both stronger and more accurate. Moreover, her baseline play remains as strong as ever and no one can question her fighting spirit. Mind you, Mauresmo does have claims and could obviously win but Clijsters 7-2 H2h advantage suggests otherwise (Clijster's has won the last 6). I'm sure this will be close and a lot will hinge on the first set. However the value is with the Belgian.

Clijsters $1.59 5Dimes


Sharapova v Williams:
Too many 'ifs' and 'buts' in this match for me. Sharapova's back is a definite concern as it gave her a lot of grief during the second set with Henin. Remember she was leading 4-1 and serving prior to the problem and after taking treatement, she lost the set 7-5. Of course she went on to beat the 'rusty' Henin but Sharapova stated during her post match interview that her back might be an 'issue'. Therefore if Venus can replicate her form from the first set with Serena, then this should be an entertaining affair. Then again, Venus is still getting over a slow-healing abdominal injury that forced her to withdraw from Indian Wells.

Update

Bets 56; Won 43; Lost 13
At Flat Stakes: Bet 56; Won 13.04; ROI 23.3%

Exceptional win to Clijster's - she really has the 'wood' over Mauresmo's power game and use of spin. The game was far more one-sided than I predicted - great stuff!

Clijster's odds dropped rather quickly yesterday so I'll place $1.50 in the record as an average price as opposed to the early lines around $1.59. I'm hoping this makes the record a more realistic reflection of ROI%.

I'm still predicting Clijster's in the final. I rate her as a slight favourite but will post when the early lines are published. I'm guessing the bookies will split them down the middle.

The following excerpt is from Clijster's online diary. Food for thought before backing her at the ridiculously low $1.65-ish opening prices. I'm waiting for at least $1.76 before posting the bet (and that's marginal value in my opinion).


"I got up about an hour ago. It is still very moisty around here and one sweats the whole day through, even while doing nothing. I am starting to feel exhausted because of the succession of matches and my wrist is a bit stiff as well.

Playing eleven matches in a row in three weeks is tiring if you haven't been able to play for about a year. In the second set against Myskina I really hit a low, any third set would have been too much. Luckily, I now had a day's rest, but still I feel that my wrist needs more rest and that I should be having a checkup at the hospital again.

Right, I'm going to get ready for another half an hour of practice and testing my wrist. The WTA doctor advised me not to take any risks, so we'll see. After that, I still have some time left, as my match is only at 2am Belgian time.

Keep your thumbs up and see you soon.
Love Kim"

Bausch and Lomb at Amelia Island
Green Clay.

While not the first clay tourney of the year, Amelia island generally marks the start of the clay court swing. While it's sometimes tricky to tip the opening rounds, the clay season generally proves to be more profitable than the hardcourt swing.

Out of interest, green clay is slightly faster than red clay, has a higher bounce, longer rebound distance and is harder to slide on.



Chladkova v Pratt
Amelia Island - Round 1

Pratt plays this week courtesy of a wildcard - her ever declining ranking wasn't good enough. She is also playing on her least favourite surface which is reflected in her 30/37 career record. Chladkova on the other hand, is playing on her favourite surface. While she's had an ordianry hardcourt season thus far, her performances on clay at Berlin and Roland Garros last year suggest she is a deserving favourite. Note that Pratt won their only encounter on clay last year but she was in far better form at the time.

Chladkova $1.60 @ 5Dimes


Pierce v Bedanova
Amelia Island - Round 1

Pierce made the QF's of Indian Wells so is slowly getting back to form. She has a solid clay record of 86/39 as compared to Bedanova's 12/16 (she rarely plays onthe dirt). Bedanova is also only a few games back from a very long injury layoff so Pierce should have a definite edge. Short odds but value with Mary.

Pierce $1.25 @ Interwetten and others
($1.28 at some smaller bookies)


NB: Martinez should win but she withdrew from Nasdaq with a heel injury and her opponent Irvin has the advantage of 2 qualifying matches. Enough doubt to watch from the sidelines.

Shaui Peng, who plays tomorrow, is an ordinary clay courter who's returning from a 4 week layoff with an ankle injury. I'll be looking to oppose her.

Maria Elen Camerin, who withdrew from Nasdaq with an ankle injury, comes up against Brandi, an ordinary clay courter who won both her qualifiers. Probably one to avoid.

Daniilidou is also probably one to avoid as she's underdone from a recent thumb injury. She also has a poor clay court reord.

Linetskya is way too short in the market and Medina-Garrigues is a good chance of beating her.
Likewise Frazier is way too short with Jidkova a good chance of winning.

Update

Bets 58; Won 45; Lost 13
At Flat Stakes: Bet 58; Won 13.89; ROI 23.9%

Good start to the week with both selections winning.

I don't think there's much value this evening in what I consider a harder group of games. I'll wait for the late prices to see if anything 'appears' and will post in the late afternoon (if there's any bets).

OUTRIGHT
 

Amelia Island - Outright

Serena Williams to win: $3.00 @ Centrebet

Serena's likely matches in her half of the draw - barring any upsets - are Randriantefy, Pierce, Schnyder and Molik. There are of course a few variations in terms of her opposition - for example - Zvonereva may beat Molik or Farina Elia may beat Schydner. However these changes don't really impact upon the odds. Serena has solid records against all these players who, for the main part, are better suited to hardcourts.

The main reason for this selection is the imbalance in the two halves of the draw. Serena's lower half is far easier than the top half- an anomaly that can be blamed on the WTA's inefficient seeding methodology.

The real interest will come in the final. Barring upsets she will play Venus or Davenport (or possibly Myskina or Petrova who have great clay skills). Should there be an upset in the top half of the draw then Serena's price looks even better. In the top half of the draw, I rate Venus as favourite. Her record on clay last year was better than her record on hard. However she has a probable QFinal against Davenport and a SFinal against Myskina and her odds reflect this.

I think it's fair to say that Serena isn't playing her best tennis at the moment but I don't think she'll be really challenged until these last few games. If she does make the final, there will be an opportunity to 'arbitrage' the bet for a profit on either player. I'm sure she's still smarting from her loss last week so perhaps a bit of revenge is on the cards.

Trying to be objective - Serena isn't defending many points here so there's not a lot at stake in terms of her quest for No. 1. However I'm sure she's not here for fun and it's very unusual to see both Williams' in the same tournament outside of slams (and the Nasdaq - the unofficial 5th slam).

A few outsiders in the mix tonight but all have very good chances of winning. I'm surprised at some of the prices on offer but this is often the case as the tour moves from hard to clay.

These are all early lines but I'm not sure whether the markets will go up or down given some of the unusual prices.


Pierce v Daniilidou
Amelia Island - Round 2

Following on from my first round pick on Pierce who is the better clay court player who, as expected, crushed Bedanova during the first round. With a far superior clay court record and a past winner of this tournament, Pierce should also dispose of Daniilidou who is a mere 23/23 on clay. Daniilidou is also recuperating from a recent thumb injury and while it's not particularly serious in terms of fitness, it kept her out of the game for several weeks.

Pierce $1.42 @ 5Dimes.


Martinez V Jankovic
Amelia Island - Round 2

Absolutely stunned at these prices. I make Martinez a clear favourite. Before I extol her virtues, my only minor concern is her withdrawal from Nasdaq last week with a left heel injury. However, she won her first round match in steady if unspectacular fashion and should be better for the run. Nothing has appeared in the media, post-match interveiws or on her website mentioning any problem with her fitness. Ok - Martinez: 13th appearance at tournament and didn't lose before QF's in first 8 appearances. Has won tournament, has 2 runner-ups and made the third round in her two most recent appearances. Rates Amelia Island as one of her favourite events. She also has a 125/52 career record on clay and has been in sensational form this season. Her opponent Jankovic is a young up-and-comer with a 32/23 clay record. However most of her success has come on hardcourts. She made headlines recently by making the finals in Dubai but perhaps people are forgetting that was a hardcourt game - not clay - and that she only made the final through Williams retiring in the semi. Jankovic did have a good win over Douchevina in the first round, but Douchevina is well known for her inconsistent performances so I'm not reading too much into it. If Martinez's injury is still troubling her then perhaps Jankovic should be favourite but, as mentioned, there's nothing in post-match interviews, news stories etc that suggests this is the case.


Martinez $2.22 5Dimes
(you can get closer to 2.45 on Betfair)


Peschke v Frazier.
Amelia Island - Round 2

Just as surprised by these prices. Peschke rates clay as her favourite surface and has a 48/30 career record on the surface. She also had a straight set first round win over clay-court specialist Castano who's been in good form lately. Moreover she breezed through her 2 qualification games in straight sets. Frazier on the other hand, has a 23/25 clay record and is far more at home on hardcourt. Neither player is in their prime - Frazier's 32, Pescke 29 - but the latter certainly has the game to win. I rate Peschke a 60.3% chance and will gladly take the value.

Frazier can obviously win but the short odds are, in my opinion, plain crazy. This is the same player who was beaten in straight sets by Kutuzova (ranked 271) in Indian Wells a few short weeks ago . . . and hardcourts are Frazier's speciality!

Peschke $2.85 @ 5Dimes



Dulko v Likhovtseva
Amelia Island - Round 2

A relatively even match up - both players are competent on clay though I give the edge to Dulko. I think the odds probably reflect Likhovtseva's slightly better start to the hardcourt season but as I've said before, I'm not sure this form transfers to clay as readily as some think. At 29 years old, Likhovtseva hasn't played that may games on clay and her record of 63/52 hardly outshines 20-year-old Dulko's record of 35/21. Likhovtseva did manage to get past clay court specialist Pistolesi in the first round though the Israeli is on the comeback trail after injury/illness. Similarly, Dulko beat another competent clay courter in Srebrotnik in straight sets. I rate her a 55.2% chance of winning.

Dulko $2.00 @ 5Dimes



Garrigues v Farina Elia
Amelia Island - Round 2

Another match I think will be close and while I give Farina Elia a very slight edge, Garrigues represents the value. Garrigues great win over Linetskya in the first round underlines her solid clay court abilities. Her career record stands at 76/43 and some her best results have come on the surface. Farina Elia comes into the clay swing in relatively good form and generally does well at this time of year. Her career record stands at 112/62 and although she has been troubled by a recurring right shoulder injury over the past few months, I'm not sure if this plays into the odds (though her last tournament was Dubai). This match should be close and Garrigues is more than capable of winning. She's the bookies outsider but there's no way she should be this price so early in the clay season.


Garrigues $2.57 @ 5Dimes
(might better prices later?)

Thanks Marco

I am very impressed by the research you put in and the time you take to keep us, the novice WTA punters informed.

Your record speaks for itself.

My punting account has benifted and I am sure I speak on behalf of others.

Good luck tonite

Karla

UpdateBets 63; Won 47; Lost 16
At Flat Stakes: Bet 63; Won 13.16; ROI 20.8%


A rather ordinary night going 2-3. I most definitely got Martinez wrong - though she made no excuses about injuries in her interviews. Apparently she just played poorly.Dulko had a break in the third but went on to lose. To be fair, Likhovtseva deserved her win. Garrigues just didn't fire up and failed to convert enough of her many breakpoint opportunities. No excuses from me - it was just "one of those days".

A loss for the evening but no real damage done.

Our outright selection - Serena Williams - cruised passed Randriantefy and now comes up against Pierce who's playing solid tennis at the moment. Should be an interesting match and closer than the very short odds suggest. Razzano did us a big favour beating Molik as she was in Serena's half of the draw.

Back tonight.

PS: Thank you for the kind words Karla.

Some great figures there Marco, i although haven't been on your tips am also impressed by the form study and commitment you have to womens Tennis. I think it's fantastic to specialise in one sport and many people don't realise this and bet on many different sports, which doesn't allow them the time and study they need to make good steady profits such as yourself, well done. Just curious on how many betting agencies you go through to get the best price?

Petrova v Jankovic
Amelia Island - Round 3

Despite disposing of Martinez, I still feel Jankovic is over-rated at the moment. She'll find the going harder today against Petrova, the wily Russian who prefers hardcourts but is more than competent on clay. Petrova crushed specialist clay-courter Maleeva in the first round and has some decent results at this tournament, including a straight sets win over a fully-fit Serena Williams last year. She's also had a good start to the season and should be full of confidence. Both players have similar records on the surface though Petrova has generally beat a better class of player (ie higher rated). Should be close and Jankovic is definitely an improver but I rate Petrova a 58.2% chance of winning.

Petrova $1.87 @ 5Dimes


Sugiyama v Razzano
Amelia Island - Round 3

Sugiyama finally seems to be finding some form after an ordinary start to the season. She's had a couple of good wins over clay-court specialists Strycova and Sanchez-Lorenzo and although appearing to still lack a little confidence, her game is definitely on the up. It must be said that clay isn't her best surface though she's more than capable of holding her own and had a good clay swing last year.What I do like about Sugiyama is her Lleyton-Hewitt-like quality where she always gives 100% until the last point. Her opponent Razzano impressed us all by breezing passed Molik without any major problems though I feel this was a 'one off' performance. Molik's unforced error count certainly helped. Razzano's competent on clay but her record is rather mixed with quite a few of her wins coming on the Challenger circuit. Like Sugiyama, she had a terrible start to the season and will be out to build on the momentum from her Molik win.

Sugiyama $1.57 @ 5Dimes


Zvonereva v Likhovtseva
Amelia Island - Round 3

Likhovtseva did just enough to get passed Dulko yesterday but this will be alot harder. Zvonereva is having a great year and boasts a 58/17 clay record with quite a few of her wins coming over top rated players. She had a hard fought win over the tenacious Peng but I'll put the score down to a bit of rustiness first up on clay. Likhovtseva is another player I think is over-rated. Her clay record stands at 64/52 and her results suggest she prefers it a bit faster than the conditions on offer at Amelia Island. She'll also have a lot more problems with Zvonereva's serve compared to the weak efforts Dulko was dishing up yesterday.

Zvonereva $1.56 @ Pinnacle


NB: I'm rather keen on Farina Elia @ $2.50 versus Patty Schnyder but am a bit shy posting outsiders after yesterday. Schydner's a bit of a head case at times and you never know which 'personality' is going to turn up. I have them rated 52-48 to Schydner so, in my opinion, there's value on Farina Elia but I'll be a tad cautious this early in the clay swing.


PS: Mr Ed, thanks for the kind words - always nice after an ordinary day at the office. I have accounts at 16 bookies but 95% of my bets are placed at Betfair, 5Dimes and Pinnacle (in that order). Most online bookies are a joke when it comes to tennis - both ATP and WTA - but you can do good business with these 3 alone. The key is being in the market when they post their
opening lines. They generally do so at the same time each day - relative to the tournament timezone - so it's a fairly easy process.

Even though Betfair prices are generally superior, I don't post them because the amount available for betting is often insubstantial and can change quickly.

Update

UpdateBets 64; Won 48; Lost 16
At Flat Stakes: Bet 64; Won 13.73; ROI 21.4%

The bad news is rain played havoc with the tournament today - most of our games will be played tonight. The good news is my first selection to play, Zvonereva, won in straight sets. She was also available up to $1.67 prior to the start (though my 1.57 has been recorded). The 'mixed' news is Sugiyama is a set down but leading the second set tiebreak 3-0. Though not particularly important, Sugiyama has a 60/50 career tiebreak record while Razzano has a 32/22 record. Here's hoping.

Update

Bets 66; Won 49; Lost 17
At Flat Stakes: Bet 66; Won 13.60; ROI 20.6%

Petrova won last night but Sugiyama let us down. A disappointing loss as she lead 5-2 in the third set and held match point before losing 7-5. However Razzano - who deserves credit for beating Sugiyama - did us a favour by beating Zvonareva.

No value in the semi's tonight so I'll wait to see how the final shapes up. I'm guessing Davenport v Williams but that's not exactly rocket science.

Serena Williams just retired after losing second set so our outright bet loses.

Update

Bets 67; Won 49; Lost 18
At Flat Stakes: Bet 67; Won 12.60; ROI 18.8%

May post a pick on Razzano / Elia tonight.

Family Circle Cup - Charlston
Green Clay

Rather weak field at Charlston this week. Quite a few upsets against the seeds in qualification so expect some variable results again. The clay swing will start to settle down soon as more games are played and current form becomes more evident.

Not much time today so abbreviated write-ups.

Randriantefy v Jidkova
Charlston - Round 1

Randriantefy is a better all-round player and superior on clay. Nice warm up games last week whereas Jidkova was easily beaten by hardcourter Frazier. Randriantefy solid season thus far while Jidkova's been very ordinary

Randriantefy $1.50 @ 5Dimes


Peer v Vaidisova
Charlston - Round 1

While Peer is largely unproven on clay, she does have a 20/7 career record although many of those wins were on the Challenger circuit. Her opponent has only played 6 games on clay at any level and is first-up this season on the surface. Peer has the advantage of 'warming up' on both qualies this week (2 wins) and at Amelia Island where she put in a credible performance (1 win, 1 loss).

Peer $2.30 @ 5Dimes


Likhovtseva v Koukalova
Charlston - Round 1

Likhovtseva had solid performance on green clay last week while Koukalova is first-up. Koukalova'scompetent on the dirt and this could be a close match but Likhovtseva is the better player who has the benefit of 3 good 'warm-up' matches at Amelia Island.

Likhovtseva $1.33 @ 5Dimes

NB: Dementieva is one of the favourites for this tournament but she withdrew form Amelia Island last week with a knee injury so might be best to watch a few games first. Zuluaga also withdrew from Amelia Island with an 'illness' so not best preparation for such short odds. Shaughnessy hurt her back at Amelia Island.