And 2 tubs of marge stops a dishlicker every time, used all the time, a few runs full of marge, odds go out and out, time is ripe, no marge, big odds and wins.
I know I'm getting off the subject, but what I'm trying to get through is this business is about money, not the love of dogs or horses, and thats why I Admire anyone that can consistantly win doing form as there is so many unknowns out there that the best form student can ever know.

Yes I had a good read as well.
I don't suggest to follow the method,but I believe there is much knowledge there regardless.

First time blinkers on
 

Some people can't see because they choose not to.
Even me sometimes.

Sorry shoto; I was distracted and forgot to answer the question about "class".
Since it's a big one I'll start a new thread for it!

wrong
 

all this is simply not correct, small horse, big horse - who cares? horses are not people & to compare them as above, it just dont work that way.

in your example of horse A has ability & is fit & horse B doesnt & isnt, whats going to happen? B's going to win because it ways 100kg more than A? pppfff!

what counts is not a nags weight but the size of its ticker, & since we cant cut em up to have a look how big it is until they have karked it, we can only guesstimate the size of it.

A weighty problem
 

G'day all. Nice to see that there are still a few of the diehards here. I've noticed Moee, Kenchar and Chrome Prince already and of course my old mate Baggy! Hope you guys are hammering the bookies!

On the subject of weight it is only one of the many factors we punters have to consider when studying form. To concentrate solely on weight as a deciding factor when assessing the chances of a runner is not going to work in your favour for very long if at all.

I believe that the weight hype is just a bit of punting lore from years ago when there were massive weights carried and huge differences between top and bottom weighted horses. Today, with much higher minimum weights, weight doesn't become as important as in those earlier years but we (older) punters still have that weight thing embedded in our minds and of course younger punters always listen to us wise old sages! Yeah, right!

Personally, I never support a runner if it is carrying more weight than it has ever won with before AND I have a "weight maximum" that forms a part of my selection method but then again it is only one of 9 considerations for me.

I can't cop the "lengths = weight" theory either but I still see punters religiously working that factor into their selection methods. Unfortunately, it is not as simple as that and individual race circumstances cannot be covered by a blanket theory.

Punting experience is probably the most important asset when considering whether or not weight will influence your final selection.

Final thought: Many course records have been broken by horses carrying big weights (Century Kid comes to mind) but generally that will only happen in sprints with lower class opposition where the pressure is not as intense.

Cheers

Privateer

Davez has had enough, and I'm not surprised!!! When I started all this about weight of horses etc (see POST #6) I had a suspicion it would lead to exasperation as I,once upon a time, falling for the whole ratings hokum, trying to quantify that which is not quantifiable, became exasperated. The more you try to be "scientific" the more imponderables crop up: the more "factors" you discover, the more the variables multiply. As I 've wondered before: did MY horse have a barking dog keep him awake all night prior to that "disappointing run" at Eagle Farm? Was MY "boom colt" thinking of girlies last Spring, instead of races?? Was YOUR jockey dwelling on the breakfast bust-up he'd had with his missus instead of today's pace tactics? Who could possibly know?
The key to it all is to keep it simple. We punters are not working for the astrophysics dept of MIT!! We are not required to have a slide rule,or a complete set of Algorithmic tables, to place a bet!! Ratings are often a waste of time and rarely work at all unless applied with "feeling". But then......... you're better off working on your "feel", in that case.
Having got thus far,the next step is to decide who/what to have a "feel' FOR!! And here I look at the trainers since it is they who place the horse and it is up to them (almost alone) to do it right. They have ALREADY "rated" the horse and decided on where it should be.The "odds" are not really about the horses chances in any given race but, more importantly,are a direct judgement of the trainer's decision to PUT the horse in that race!! So ,all my punting colleagues, here's the clue:Assess the trainer's motives correctly and you're 90% "home" without even doing "the form" at all!!! By, and good punting to all

Sot on Punter 57. "The key to it all is to keep it simple" See my post in the thread entitled "Am I old fashioned."

I'll just keep backing the horses lumping huge weights around, who are fit and in the market ;)

Belmont R1 1 Geil 57.0kg +2.5kg Won $3.90
Belmont R3 1 Money Exchange 60.0kg +4.0kg unplaced
Belmont R6 1 Stir Pak 59.0kg +2.5kg unplaced
Belmont R7 1 Impressive Stats 57.5kg +.5kg Won $3.50

Gday all

kinda bears out my comment about horses carrying over 59... by all means back them and sure the odd few will win.. but in the long term they are duds, and duds that are usually overbet at that..

A reasonable point Racingnovice but of course there are many more factors at work which will decide who finishes in front. I guarantee you I, at 70kg, can easily account for some 100kg blokes around no matter what weight is being hauled.

Of course I would reach my optimum weight carrying level and then I would tire considerably. I think that is the point. Some horses can carry weight, some can't. It is no secret that better class horses can and still beat lower class animals. I think this is why horses going up in weight win more races, they are better horses.

A small horse or human can be a ball of muscle and beat their larger (fatter) protagonist, winning depends on fitness, ticker, bottle and ability.

It seems to me that a lot of people are getting sidetracked by "Big Horse/Little Horse" and missing the main point that tiny weight discrepancies are OF NO IMPORTANCE in horse racing due to numerous other factors (of which size MAY be one) acting as counter-influences. That Kiwi jumps to the conclusion (see below) that Bigger means Fatter, and therefore unfitter, shows the enormity of the problem. We can't know the effects of most variables and shouldn't be breaking our heads over every miniscule difference between the horses. Let the trainer decide if his/ her horse is "right" and look for clues that the Trainer is CONFIDENT. They know their horses better than anyone else and THEY have weighed ir all up for us. When Cinque Cento appeared at Doomben in The Roses (Group 3 2020m) last Saturday it was senseless to analyse at all. Up 420m and 8 grades after a moderate class 1 win at Gosford, it was "obviously" in too hard a race. So; were the punters right or was Tony Wildman???
The punting public got it horribly wrong because that didn't listen to Tony. The bookies GOT IT RIGHT (for them) because the punters were scared off by the 20s on offer which left them (the bookies) cheering!! They were cheering because the punters were hooked on ratings and thinking of what SHOULD be instead of what COULD be. Keep it simple and keep on winning. Bye for now

What of the other trainers in the race.Why weren't you listening to them?
They all had opinions on their horse's ability and were probably trying to win, given it was a Group 3

Hi Kiwi! I looked at all the visiting trainers only, since, as I've said before, if it's less than a few hours by float(or within minutes as is the case Doomben/Eagle Farm) to the races, it really is tempting to "give it a go" even if it's just wishful thinking:costs nothing and you might get a few grand for 5th or 4th even. Better in fact than winning at the Gold Coast where they probably should've been.
There were 6 of these, and three were short-priced Waterhouse animals. Overbet due to the Golden Gai tag, I ignored them. Remember, Kiwi, that we dont want to know why the favoured horses are in the race (ie that is clear), but why the OTHERS have been sent a thousand Kilometres. Not wanting to tempt fate (or treat the horses like a predictable Physics experiment) by trying to whittle it down further I let the old risk/reward equation guide me and took the 2 over $20. That's it!!

Thanks punter57 travelling trainers have always aroused my interest too. I will pay this aspect more attention in future.

Hi punter57

I've tried some trainer ideas with mixed results.Any more ideas?

My thoughts include preparation patterns, using winning jockeys and first up specialists.

Morning Kiwi!! Yesterday was one of the days when, in a moment of weakness, I might have considered putting a place bet on. Just for a second when River To The Sea looked like winning the BTC sprint I was counting the $1100 (ie $20 at $55 the win) then wondering if $12.40 the place would've made up for some of the disappointment. Likewise in the very next race with Natural Blitz looming in the Doomben Cup at $22 and paying $4.90 for 3rd. Or earlier with Igotthelaststone at Rosehill (not really looking the winner but still $6.50 the place).
These things happen but I've never been able to make Place Punting as profitable as Win Betting IN THE LONG RUN.,though a smaller return makes you "feel better" at the time!!!
By the way Kiwi, there were many possibilities in the main races at Doomben.Take the five from Interstate at LONGER THAN 20s in Race 6 (The Sprint),which I got down to 3 contenders. I eliminated Amtrak because he was down in class for his second run in Brisbane (from Melbourne) This is the trainer telling you he "got it wrong" the first time (too tough) and has therefore decided on an easier race; a sign of "loss of confidence"....BAD. Tsuimai (from Sydney), maybe for real, (probably I should've left him in but as he hadn't won for 18 months and then it'd been 1600, I'd say Denham had something longer in mind,next time). Youthful: from Melbourne after a reasonable effort at Warnambool the previous (now coming 2000 kilometres for this) and with 2 earlier wins 1350,5 at 1400; definitely FOR REAL. River To The Sea (from Sydney,running recently over longer) his trainer has sprung many a surprise before so I gave it "a chance", especially as it had been rested almost 2 months (several wins and places fresh at 1200/1400) for THIS.
For Face Value I thought that Laming was more "hopeful" than CONFIDENT (he's a Queenslander and often takes his horses to Brisbane from the Victorian stable "on holidays" in the winter) though, since he was putting the horse UP in class, Laming must've had some 'expectations". That's it Kiwi: 3 longshots in the same race and a near miss at $55: could've been different as it WILL be, next Saturday. Hope this gives you more feel for trainer "motivations" and why they spend time and money on travelling around. Cheers

Hi Punter57
I noticed Spuruson was along way from home.Didn't back that one but on checking it's form saw Mi Casa ran second to it as a maiden.Thought if Spuruson was good enough for a Group race then Mi Casa is a good horse too and backed that.Sad part was i couldn't believe Spuruson could beat Willy Leica or Svenska otherwise i would have really have been celebrating.
Did you see anything of note?

You are certainly living up to your name RACINGNOVICE, your thinking there is simply illogical. If both horses were allocated the same weight then they must had the same class and ability dispite the weights they have been carrying. E.G both may have won a bush maiden by a length with 57.5, in the same time, both horses start in a C1 next start and are allocated 58, your ratio is only valid if at all on the .5kg difference as at 57.5 they are at the same level.

Morning Kiwi!! I WAS on Spuruson and ,surprisingly, Unitab paid better (40.70) than the on-liners. That was a relatively easy one (race 4) as there were only 2 over 20-1. I bet #9 too but don't know what it did. The tougher races at Brisbane were the last two as there were quite a few possibilities. In the end I took 2 runners in R7 after eliminating Gordo (too short;looked like being aimed at longer next time) and Legally Bay (had two runs in Brisbane and now being DROPPED in both class and distance.....a sure sign of Hawkes losing confidence).
Race 8 was just too tough. There were 9 longshots over 20s including the winner and 2nd who both "plummeted" to about 16-1,which was FAR TOO SHORT,by the jump. Don't forget Kiwi that longshot winners are nothing unusual and should be bet if you "suspect" something. When Dane Ripper won the '97 Stradbroke at 40s after Cummings took her from Sydney, it might have been excusable to mumble "how could you expect a 3yo filly to get up at those odds??" but 5 months later when she won the Cox Plate (also at 40s) after another "trip"(to Melbourne that time)no-one had ANY excuse to not be in the queue COLLECTING. Afterwards in the Manikato and The Australian Cup everyone was on her and HAPPY to be taking 2-1!!! Go figure.
Anyway,Kiwi,keep looking at it and good luck next weekend on the TWO big days.

Ultimate Strategy
 

Hi All,

Have read with interest the debate about weight. I think we have moved off the topic some what.

I was on Garry's webpage and he has books, software, systems and ratings. Are they any good? How have the systems really gone? Is the mag any good (got one free at Newcastle races once)?

Cheers,

Hi Napalm,
With GR some of the stuff can be good , but as far as selecting winners , he is no better than others a number of the products are on the pricey side, especially some of the staking plans that use a form of progression & one does not need to spend $900 to do that.
I bought the first software edition of his Power of Ten , was not worth it.
I wish it was was, it well laid out & presented but struggled to break even on a set of figures which break even at level stakes.
The manual version was good thats why I ran with computerised version.

Some of the tools that reframe the market could be good & some tools for Dutch betting could be of interest or useing ratings but one can get these things online at no cost at all e.g.Ozrace tools have a good selectionat no cost at all.

There selection service without fail 7 days a week give out horsesthat were cosistantly veru short , at the time over 3mnths it rarely selected winners paying $3.00+
The results of profit are usually based on best price available for each selection
If selecctons were bet on the TAB , they made a slight loss ar level stakes.

I feel it would be best to do your own thing targetting races with exactly 9 runners only .
Target the top 2 selections of amy tipster e.g. Radio TAB selections from UniTAB are good. & break it down from there mmaybe using the Neurals.

Cheers,
Brian.

Exactly 9 runners???

Why? What's wrong with 8 or 10?

9 sounds good to me :)
and nice to see old threads being recycled!

G'day all,

Been AWOL for a while,find this thread interesting and can't help but throw my hat in the ring here.
Baghwan,not nitpicking here but The Power of Ten was by Malcom Knowles,not Gary R.
Can't agree with the general concensus about weight being an irrelevant form factor.
Comparing examples with humans and trains is a futile exercise and has no relevance to the sport of kings.
Someone said there wqas no need for handicapping at all,let's see who the best horse is pound for pound.
That's why there is a handicapper,so the lower class animals can be competetive,class being the key word.
So looking at handicap races only,if a horse is going up in weight by 2kg or more,then the handicapper is obviously telling us it is down in class.
Obversely,if a horse is going down in weight by 2kg or more,he is telling us it is up in class.
So you have to ask the question about the one going up in weight,has it won or placed with this weight(or close to it)in the past?
With the other one,do you think it can handle the class rise?
Have to agree with Chrome,horses going up in weight win more races than those going down.
Also agree with XPT,a lot of them are duds and overbet,especially if last start winners.
As to the key word,CLASS,here is a method I have used with considerable success to determine the class runners in handicap races.
You will need a copy of the Sportsman to do this.
1)Go to the Zipform section
2)Handicap races only
3)Field size 10/14
4)Delete the lowest 3 horses in the average prizemoney column
5)Calculate a sum AVP total of the rest of the field
6)Divide this by the number of runners you have left(after deletions)
7)Once you have this figure,eliminate any runners in the AVP column that don't match or surpass it
8)Eliminate any runner that surpasses it by 1 fluke win in a good race
It,s not infallible,but once you have the class runners,you can do your form study from there.
I tend to focus on the top 5(if there is 5).
My filters are fairly stringent,maybe I'll post the actual method in it's entirety one day.
cheers

Hi All,


Some of you that have been here longer then me might know if punter 57 ever goto to writing his Class thread. If so I would dearly like to read it, would anyone know its link?

Michal

Hi Sportz,
With 8 runners exactly, all sorts of wild things tend to happen. For whatever reason.
I recon one could bet every double digit runner in the race & still be no worse off betting the best form horse in the field , provided there are no odds-on runners in the field.

With 9 runners exactly , one is competing with 8 others.
Must be $3.20+ SP or PP.
The form horses seem to be able to do their thing more.

With 10 runners exactly one is competing with 9 others, a 11% difference.

As a test, run any reasonable selection process over races with exacly 9 runners .

Then do the same with other size fields of 10 & see if there is much difference.

I think one will find the SR slightly higher for 9 runners.

Just for fun, I did this...
I ran over the results for Sat28th Sun29th Mon30th July.
. Races with exactly 8 runners.

. No bet in races where the fav is $2.00 or less.

. Sometimes there were up to 5 horses bet at a time in the same race.

. Betting all runners $10.00+

4 wins from 13 races = 31% SR
O/L 46 ret 56 = Profit +10 = 22% POT
No form - No nothing.

Prices $17.50 10.70 10.70 17.80
Most of the form horses with nostrils flaired & flatulating just before jump , had their butts kicked.

Cheers.