opener melbourne a few 1st-uppers might just get the tri boxing nos. 2,4,5,11

result 11,2,9

Hamilton 5/11
 

R2 (2) Newgrange
R5 (2) Hurri Love

19/11
 

TATURA 6th #5 JETERA #10 HIGH ON GOLD

shooshed should do ok today first-up at wagga...

...won

backing first-up a bit dicey imo..,,although do consider them sometimes if they have good trial form leading up to the race as well as a strong first-up record...

i used to keep stats on this..... not all races, just the ones my system bet on. I did this to see if i could improve it by removing any stat that was negative. i no longer have the stats as i made judgement years ago on my findings.

1st up strike rate was much better then 2nd up with 3rd up the most succesful.
Also interesting horses having their 5th+ start after a spell was only average

Part of my conclusion was that the market knows how horses handle each outing. i.e. a good first up horse was shown in the market where as a horse needing the run was larger odds. Now thats might sound obvious but horses rarely turn their precedented stats around in this area. I check every horse for this particualr stat, every race......it rarely lets you down as a guide.

yeah 3rd start [onwards] after a spell works for me ;)

MON Dec 17
 

Narromine R1 4 Mr Poet
Sale R1 16 Skybee
Sale R4 2 Encroacher

All $4x$8