The barrier statistic needs to be looked at from the perspective that if you have 2 horses identified from your selection method and one has drawn barrier 6 and the other barrier 12, what does your logic tell you?

The issue as later described by Privateer as 'didn't figure quite as prominently', had more to with field size, than barrier from my own analysis.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Beton: Email received and reply sent. All the best.

Only one contender today SR4#5. Track Slow no bet. Weekdays is a monitoring exercise to see if there is any merit in extending the system into weeksdays.

I have had a few days away. I thought this thread had died but Beton and Luckyboy have breathed some more life into it.

My best wishes to Beton , if anybody deserves some success with it , it will be him for all the effort he has put in. Good Luck.

Star

[QUOTE=Barny]Quote Privateer "On barriers, when I did my results analysis Iwas quite surprised that they didn't figure quite as prominently as I thoughtthey would. After 30 years of punting the mugs way it took me a lot of selfdiscipline to learn to accept what the stats told me and not what my brain wassaying."

-------------------

Thats an interesting point Barny. Infact, the more research I do, the more I find that things I considered fairly consistent are not proving that way with more detailed research.

I think our friend Mr Privateer has really opened up a Pandora's Box. I am now starting to get an inkling that we cannot accept anything as gospel and to me now, nothing is sacred and everything is fair game.

Thanks to all for adding to this thread.

Star

Hi Star
So if Joe Public considers your same things are fairly consistent, but they indeed aren't, then they would have applied the same bias to them as you did. I think it was Woof43 who handicaps the handicappers! But it relates best to certain conditions including tracks & distances... you just have to find which ones.
It would be good if you could poll the punters ( sounds painful) and list their top dozen decision factors ranked in order for picking winners. Then, watch for the highest ranked to fail consistently in certain conditions.
This should flush out false favs leaving overlays to gather up in a net... backing or laying :)
I like the way you get things rolling Star. Keep up the good work & inquisitive mind! :)

Getting things started is easy for me, it is the finishing that I have problems with.

But true Rails, When I started this thread that was what I was aiming at, but then Privateer's old thread appeared which maybe applied the same thinking.

You have explained this much better then my foggy mind could, but what I have written and my Quotes from various sources that I have put in this thread are very much in my mind and I still think are worth investigating further until they are killed off.

Star

Following up on Rails Run post I thought I would apply some more thoughts to think outside the square. This is for rails and anybody else who might appreciate it.

it is put in to lighten the thread abit, but may also be thought provoking. it has helped me in the past while researching non racing issues. Maybe it might have a place here too.

THE CALF PATH

Following up on Rails Run post I thought I would apply some more thoughts to think outside the square. This is for Rails and anybody else who might appreciate it.

It is put in to lighten the thread a bit, but may also be thought provoking. It has helped me in the past while researching non racing issues. Maybe it might have a place here too.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------


THE CALF PATH


One day, through the primeval wood
A calf walked home, as good calves should;
but made a trail all bent askew,
A crooked trail as all calves do.

Since then two hundred years have fled,
And I infer, the calf is dead.
But still he left behind his trail.
And thereby hangs my moral tale.

The trail was taken up the next day
By a lone dog that passed that way;
And then a wise bell-wether sheep
Pursued then trail o'er vale and sleep
And drew the flock behind him too,
as good bell-wethers always do.

And from that day o'er hill and glade,
Through those old woods a path was made,
And many men would in and out,
And dodged and turned and bent about
And uttered words of righteous wrath
because 'twas such a crooked path.

But still yhey followed - do not laugh,
The first migrations of that calf,
And through this winding wood-way stalked,
Because he wobbled when he walked.

This forest path became a lane,
That bent and turned and turned again,
This crooked lane became a road,
Where many a poor horse with his load
Toiled on beneath the burning sun,
And travelled some three miles in one,
And thus a century and a half
Thet trod the footsteps of that calf.

The years passed on in swiftness fleet,
The road became a village street,
And this before men were aware,
A city's crowded thoroughfare.

And soon the central street was this
Of a renownwd metropolis,
And men two centries and a half
'trod in the footsteps of that calf.

each day a hundred thousan rout,
Followed this zig zag calf about,
And o'er crooked journey went
The traffic of the continent.

A hundred thousand men were led,
By one calf three centuries dead,
They followed still his crooked way,
And lost one hundred years a day,
For such reverence is lent,
To well estabisshed precedent.

A moral lesson this might teach,
Where I ordained and called to preach,
For men are proned to go it blind,
Along the calf paths of the mind,
And work away from sun to sun,
To do what other men have done.

They follow in the beaten track,
And out and in and back and forth,
And still their devious path that others do,
They keep the path a sacred groove,
Along which all their lives they move.

And how wise old wood-gods laugh,
Who saw the first primeval calf,
Ah, many things this tale might teach,
But I am not ordained to preach.

Sam Walker Ross, 1895


--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Maybe the above helps LG understand my thinking as well.

Star

Yesterday there were no contenders. Today there was. I got back just at the off and there were only 7 runners -so no bet. It won $5.50 on the TAB. Tomorrow we have 4 clear contenders plus a clear contender in Adelaide and one in Perth. There are also 13 near contenders (just miss one filter) that I have my eye on.
SR6#3, BR4#7, MR6#3,MR7#7. AR6#1. and PR4#5. =>$4 no wet. I have some original rules which I still have incorporate later.

Thanks to Luckyboy, rails, Star, CP, TS and Barny for their support.

I have suggested a number of times, that you need to identify the strongest variables for the Favourite in each race and then the gap/strength between it the 2nd Favourite.

Once your identified your Variables for todays race Favourite, one would then do a percentile rank of all horses based on those identified Variables, then you normalise the difference of each of the percentile ranks. One would do that over an over for hundreds of actual races based on those variables and you would generally have an idea of the % wagered on each entrant.

Once you know the Variables that made todays race Favourite. It is then a matter of running your other 140 odd variables or whatever number you have in a multi variate analysis and what you will find is a group of other variables that will outperform todays race Favorite variable.

And if you were to do something like above, you start all your analysis from races that have first starters or those with limited form.